Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[MiX]

So, I think the first order of business should be that Elim Garak claims.

But not results, right?

[Uncleeurope]

What if I wanted to claim first?

Okay, I’m done. Ima go sleep now, see you people later, hopefully after all the scum decide to forfeit for fun.

[faust]

So, I think the first order of business should be that Elim Garak claims.

But not results, right?

What results?

[MiX]

So, I think the first order of business should be that Elim Garak claims.

But not results, right?

What results?

The...the targets for bus drive in each potencial night. Say, if I drived N1 targets were X and Y, if N2 targets A and B etc. And of course he shouldn't say when he did it untill it matters in case he didn't do it at all.

[faust]

So, I think the first order of business should be that Elim Garak claims.

But not results, right?

What results?

The...the targets for bus drive in each potencial night. Say, if I drived N1 targets were X and Y, if N2 targets A and B etc. And of course he shouldn't say when he did it untill it matters in case he didn't do it at all.

No, they should claim everything.

[MiX]

Oh. Okay...sure, that works. Reminder that it helps scum!cops but I suppose barely so.

We should wait for more people to have their say on this, but I think I agree with this.

[WestCoastDidds]

Ugh. Ugh. Ugh.

DatSwan was the only person I really trusted. Ugh. Chicken being Ferengi explains some of his difference in play bewtween D2 and D3.

So, there are 9 left? And if there are two scum teams, that only leaves four of us from town? Ugh. If there is an SK, then six of us are town? Ugh, but slightly less so. And the scum know each other and have had a chance to talk?  I feel like we’re screwed. How am I so bad at this game? Ugh.

I’m at a writing retreat in Oregon today through late Sunday, so pretty much V/LA until Monday. I’ll try to check in some but it will be limited engagement. Apologies in advance.

To;dr: ugh

[faust]

Chicken being Ferengi explains some of his difference in play bewtween D2 and D3.

Tell me more about that difference.

[ashersky]

So, I think the first order of business should be that Elim Garak claims.

But not results, right?

What results?

The...the targets for bus drive in each potencial night. Say, if I drived N1 targets were X and Y, if N2 targets A and B etc. And of course he shouldn't say when he did it untill it matters in case he didn't do it at all.

So clearly claiming not Bus Driver, I see.

[ashersky]

It’s officially “faust has been alive too long to be town” time.

Plus the neighborhood flips make you look worse.

[faust]

Plus the neighborhood flips make you look worse.

Why?

[raerae]

Vote: MiX

Faust is on my suspicion list too. I'm cool with ash and UncleEddie. I don't have any feelings about claiming.

[MiX]

Vote: MiX

Faust is on my suspicion list too. I'm cool with ash and UncleEddie. I don't have any feelings about claiming.

Yeah, yeah, you exist. I don't think we should say our reads before claiming but that vote's obvious.

[raerae]

Vote: MiX

Faust is on my suspicion list too. I'm cool with ash and UncleEddie. I don't have any feelings about claiming.

Yeah, yeah, you exist. I don't think we should say our reads before claiming but that vote's obvious.

I'm sorry, I'm not going to obey faust's every whim because you nominated him King of the thread. I didn't vote for him and I'll do what I want.

[MiX]

Vote: MiX

Faust is on my suspicion list too. I'm cool with ash and UncleEddie. I don't have any feelings about claiming.

Yeah, yeah, you exist. I don't think we should say our reads before claiming but that vote's obvious.

I'm sorry, I'm not going to obey faust's every whim because you nominated him King of the thread. I didn't vote for him and I'll do what I want.

I fail to see what faust has to do with my own opinion about not talking about reads before claiming.

[SpaceAnemone]

It’s officially “faust has been alive too long to be town” time.

I was thinking that, too. But clearly he can't be on both non-town factions, so we have evidence that at least one scummy person not aligned with faust is definitely choosing not to target him, which is better than we have for most games.

[faust]

I'm sorry, I'm not going to obey faust's every whim because you nominated him King of the thread. I didn't vote for him and I'll do what I want.

Oh but you did:

Vote: faust

Yes, that vote was absolutely for king of the thread elections. You didn't realize what you were voting for at the time? Well something something Brexit referendum.

[EFHW]

So, I think the first order of business should be that Elim Garak claims.

I'm good with that.

[raerae]

I'm sorry, I'm not going to obey faust's every whim because you nominated him King of the thread. I didn't vote for him and I'll do what I want.

Oh but you did:

Vote: faust

Yes, that vote was absolutely for king of the thread elections. You didn't realize what you were voting for at the time? Well something something Brexit referendum.

Aaaaaannnnnndddddd I just spit my coffee out trying not choke while laughing. Much appreciated!

[EFHW]

I'm not sure if the cops should claim, though. Unless they have positive results, of course. This is a reason not to mass claim. The cops are our only ability to get information other than from flips, and they will one or both die tonight if we out them. Even if they have negative results on the same person, that person could still be SK. It could be worth looking through DatSwan's Day 3 to see if he crumbed anything about his N2 result.

The continued spate of town nk's makes me think SK is more likely than MU at this point. Just by chance you would think an MU would have been hit by now.

[faust]

Well time for some calculations.

Considering we know that neither SK nor MU have flipped so far, from a townie's POV (assuming all lynches and kills are random with the exception of no in-team NKs) probabilities are like this:

Maquis + SK: 66.14%
Maquis + MU: 33.86%

So... still very much possible that we have a bunch of scum.

[SpaceAnemone]

Well time for some calculations.

Considering we know that neither SK nor MU have flipped so far, from a townie's POV (assuming all lynches and kills are random with the exception of no in-team NKs) probabilities are like this:

Maquis + SK: 66.14%
Maquis + MU: 33.86%

So... still very much possible that we have a bunch of scum.

Why do these numbers depend on having a townie's PoV? Would a Maquis point of view make a difference to your calculation?

My numbers would be the same either way, but I still get a slight difference (64% chance of SK) compared to you, so I'd still like to know what you're doing differently.

[raerae]

Do they numbers really help you scumhunt? (I can't tell if I'm annoyed or genuinely curious right now so take it how you will.)

[faust]

Well time for some calculations.

Considering we know that neither SK nor MU have flipped so far, from a townie's POV (assuming all lynches and kills are random with the exception of no in-team NKs) probabilities are like this:

Maquis + SK: 66.14%
Maquis + MU: 33.86%

So... still very much possible that we have a bunch of scum.

Why do these numbers depend on having a townie's PoV? Would a Maquis point of view make a difference to your calculation?

My numbers would be the same either way, but I still get a slight difference (64% chance of SK) compared to you, so I'd still like to know what you're doing differently.

Knowledge that you are a townie and have not been killed factors into things like "how likely was it that there was a D1 lynch that wasn't SK"? From an outside perspective, assuming there is an SK, that's 17/18. If you do it conditional on knowing you were not the lynch target, it's 16/17.

Numbers for non-me townies should still be slightly different if you factor in the knowledge that I am not the SK.

[faust]

Do they numbers really help you scumhunt? (I can't tell if I'm annoyed or genuinely curious right now so take it how you will.)

Not really, I just do them for fun. It is nice to get a sense of how much we should worry about a second team, but in practice it probably does not change too much for our play today.