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[raerae]

Okay, so question for the masses, do you all actually think MiX is town or are you just suspicious enough of me to not want to agree with me?

[raerae]

I'm very interested in what faust and Ash think of this.

Why us two in particular?

I think there is a point to your observations, but I don't think MiX and shraeye look like partners. Specifically, shraeye was pushing a MiX lynch all D2.

But that's the whole thing you have to throw out the window when shraeye is involved. He does not interact with his partners in any noticable way.

I do not believe this is true. I went back to the one game shraeye and me have been scum together, M31. Here are some of the things he said in the scum QT:

What I often do, is research an actual case on one of my partners, but then delete the two most damning pieces of evidence.

Twistedarcher: Just be careful not to defend any of us without a good reason

shraeye: so Twisted is right, just don't interpret that as "never defend any partner without 200% solid proof."

Two cases where shraeye says he will deliberately treat a partner differently as scum.

Responding and building cases is different than interacting with though. Can you look at any of the cases he built this game and see the two pieces of evidence he deleted? Can you see when he's defending somebody for good reason?

[MiX]

How about the other way around? Also, this is impossible, he's only human. Did I say this before?

The other way around? What's that even mean? I've played this game with him and seen it, it mimics his real life, is almost like I live with him or something.

I meant everyone else's interaction with shraeye, those still exist.

[faust]

Responding and building cases is different than interacting with though. Can you look at any of the cases he built this game and see the two pieces of evidence he deleted? Can you see when he's defending somebody for good reason?

It's just examples to show that shraeye will interact differently with his partners. Which is kind of clear, everyone does, noone is a machine perfectly able to emulate what they would do if they had less info. And even if they were, scum still has actual incentive to treat their partners differently because they do not want them to die. My quotes show that scum!shraeye does care about that. The whole idea of "shraeye's interactions with his partners are indistinguishable from his interactions with town" is utter nonsense.

[raerae]

Responding and building cases is different than interacting with though. Can you look at any of the cases he built this game and see the two pieces of evidence he deleted? Can you see when he's defending somebody for good reason?

It's just examples to show that shraeye will interact differently with his partners. Which is kind of clear, everyone does, noone is a machine perfectly able to emulate what they would do if they had less info. And even if they were, scum still has actual incentive to treat their partners differently because they do not want them to die. My quotes show that scum!shraeye does care about that. The whole idea of "shraeye's interactions with his partners are indistinguishable from his interactions with town" is utter nonsense.

I'm saying you all want to reread him so you can see find where he was winking at and nudging his scumbuddies and you will not find that.

[faust]

Responding and building cases is different than interacting with though. Can you look at any of the cases he built this game and see the two pieces of evidence he deleted? Can you see when he's defending somebody for good reason?

It's just examples to show that shraeye will interact differently with his partners. Which is kind of clear, everyone does, noone is a machine perfectly able to emulate what they would do if they had less info. And even if they were, scum still has actual incentive to treat their partners differently because they do not want them to die. My quotes show that scum!shraeye does care about that. The whole idea of "shraeye's interactions with his partners are indistinguishable from his interactions with town" is utter nonsense.

I'm saying you all want to reread him so you can see find where he was winking at and nudging his scumbuddies and you will not find that.

That's not why I reread, and I doubt it is why others did.

[Glooble]

Vote Count 3.3

In Odo’s quarters, Dax and Bashir investigate the latest death.

“I guess the silver lining is he didn’t have to live for long without Major Kira,” says Dax, running a tricorder over the spot where his bucket was vaporized.

Dr. Bashir looks up from checking the scene for any biological residue.

“Well, Vedek Bariel and the Major had broken up some time ago,” he says.

“I was talking about Odo,” says Dax.

“Really?” says Bashir, his tricorder dropping to his side, “Odo? And the Major?”

"He was crazy about her," says Dax. “You never saw it?”

Bashir shakes his head in disbelief.

Vote count:

faust (2): UmbrageOfSnow, DatSwan
2.71828..... (1): faust
EFHW (2): WestCoastDidds, MiX
MiX (1): raerae
Chicken (1): UncleEurope

Not Voting (5): ashersky, chickenwarlord, SpaceAnemone, 2.71828....., EFHW

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch most players. Day 3 will end at 12 pm forum time/US ET (16:00 GMT) on Wednesday, March 20th .

[faust]

Day 3 will end at 12 pm forum time/US ET (16:00 GMT) on Wednesday, March 19th .

March 19 is a Tuesday. Can you clarify this?

[Glooble]

Day 3 will end at 12 pm forum time/US ET (16:00 GMT) on Wednesday, March 19th .

March 19 is a Tuesday. Can you clarify this?

Don't blame me I copy and pasted from vote count 3.2. Anyway it should read March 20th.

[jotheonah]

Day 3 will end at 12 pm forum time/US ET (16:00 GMT) on Wednesday, March 19th .

March 19 is a Tuesday. Can you clarify this?

Don't blame me I copy and pasted from vote count 3.2. Anyway it should read March 20th.

Correct.

[raerae]

Responding and building cases is different than interacting with though. Can you look at any of the cases he built this game and see the two pieces of evidence he deleted? Can you see when he's defending somebody for good reason?

It's just examples to show that shraeye will interact differently with his partners. Which is kind of clear, everyone does, noone is a machine perfectly able to emulate what they would do if they had less info. And even if they were, scum still has actual incentive to treat their partners differently because they do not want them to die. My quotes show that scum!shraeye does care about that. The whole idea of "shraeye's interactions with his partners are indistinguishable from his interactions with town" is utter nonsense.

I'm saying you all want to reread him so you can see find where he was winking at and nudging his scumbuddies and you will not find that.

That's not why I reread, and I doubt it is why others did.

Okay, help me out then because I don't understand, what did you hope to learn in your reread?

[faust]

Okay, help me out then because I don't understand, what did you hope to learn in your reread?

Who shraeye's partners are.

[EFHW]

vote: UoS

[SpaceAnemone]

vote: UoS

I'm curious what you think of e, because I feel like he ought to be almost conf!scum from your position.

What am I missing about UoS?

[raerae]

Okay, help me out then because I don't understand, what did you hope to learn in your reread?

Who shraeye's partners are.

And did you?

[raerae]

Okay, help me out then because I don't understand, what did you hope to learn in your reread?

Who shraeye's partners are.

And did you?

No. You know what, that's bull. I asked you if you were looking for how partners (in more hilarious terms) and you said that isn't why anybody would possibly be looking at shraeye but it was. You're trying to discount my take on him and redirect to somebody else.

Vote: faust

[EFHW]

vote: UoS

I'm curious what you think of e, because I feel like he ought to be almost conf!scum from your position.

What am I missing about UoS?

e is next on my list for similar reasons. It has to do with their voting patterns. Why do you think e should almost be conf!scum from my position?

[ashersky]

As for raerae asking for faust and I to weigh in...not sure exactly what you expect me to say. I think both of you are scummy, if not scum.

Ash, I think you always think I'm scummy. Does that mean you're just discounting what I said? NK analysis is absolutely important when shraeye is involved and it's clear his team killed glooble therefore glooble's kill tells us something about shraeye's team. I mean, do you think I'm making that up or just straight wrong?

I think that’s possible, an after effect of that Robz game with banks.

I don’t die out what you say and generally kind of agree when it comes to shraeye’s intended playstyle. I don’t think he is able to do it perfectly (no one can), and I think you give him too much credit (which I don’t blame you for). 

The interaction you’ve ended up having with faust is much more helpful.

[SpaceAnemone]

By the way, I never lied about my reasons. You're overexaggerating my botched case on you D2 to get people to scumread me. Unless I did lie? Prove it then.

Seriously? Here's the part where you said you said raerae had made a "blatant mistake" by claiming that she'd replied to a post because you couldn't find it:

What Robz post were you replying to? I...didn't find it. In fact, it doesn't exist. I am as confused as you are...you're clearly replying to this:

I do see one for raerae, just because she's not doing much, and I remember her doing a LOT more in M121, am I wrong? I don't think I am...but this could very well be null, I don't know...

You even say "I really haven't done much this game" which is a direct quote from this. I don't know what to make of this blatant mistake and I'm not sure if you're joking or not.

Then here's where you said you didn't even look for the post you were talking about:

Ha. I have to admit I didn't look for whatever post you where refering to, I just found a good non-Robz that I remembered (because I wrote it). Well that's awkward.

That's pretty much a lie. Now, I know I said at #950 that being as generous as possible to you, you hadn't outright lied, just been very misleading. However, I think you still need to own the fact that what you said was very manipulative and misleading.

Next time you want to make a case, may I suggest that you present it to the thread, and try to build up an argument that persuades people of your beliefs, instead of just hounding an individual you see as a target? It's perfectly possible to build up an entire case on someone without having to interact with them at all, and you might find it a useful technique to add to your repertoire.

[SpaceAnemone]

vote: UoS

I'm curious what you think of e, because I feel like he ought to be almost conf!scum from your position.

What am I missing about UoS?

e is next on my list for similar reasons. It has to do with their voting patterns. Why do you think e should almost be conf!scum from my position?

See my #1447, or take a look at the D1 wagons for yourself from #473-#643. Basically, there's a large town-on-e wagon where for much of its existence, you're the only non-flipped player. Either scum didn't want to go there because he's scum, or they didn't want to go there because you-LL are already there. (Or if we have two full-sized scum factions, it's very possible that you're both scum, most likely of different flavours).

Actually, since I've got permission to use colours now:

2.71828..... (5): mcmcsalot, EFHW, Robz888, Awaclus, WestCoastDidds

With WCD only being there for a sub-portion of the wagon, but you and e being in stable placed throughout.

[EFHW]

Yes, I did see that.

[SpaceAnemone]

Oops, sorry to follow up the same post twice, but I have other things I've remembered I want to ask..

e is next on my list for similar reasons. It has to do with their voting patterns. Why do you think e should almost be conf!scum from my position?

So what is it about UoS's voting patterns that have you convinced for the vote?

My characterization of his voting history would be:
D1:
a) Votes for faust early and sticks there for a very long time, including all the way through the early e wagon.
b) Moves to the LL wagon in 4th place, and stays through a couple of swells to 6 votes. For some of that his vote is right next to Shraeye's, which is a slight non-partner indicator.
c) Moves to the Robz wagon in 3rd place, and stays there till after the lynch. Being on the myslynch wagon is a black mark, but it's shared by quite a few unflipped players (e, WCD, UoS, me, Chicken, Swan and Ash).

D2:
a) Plants his vote on faust, and stays as a single-player wagon for a long time.
b) Moves to the MiX wagon in 5th position.
c) Moves back to faust as soon as Awaclus joins, and stays there till the end of the day.

I don't see how that's a very incriminating voting pattern. He's tunneling faust, but faust is an unflipped entity just now, so we can't even say if that's even a mistake.

[WestCoastDidds]

Space is pwning MiX on the misleading and manipulation case. Rae has called it out when it happened and now for him to pretend it wasn’t a misstep is mind boggling to me.

(Space, I hope you’re feeling better. Kicking ass definitely has therapeutic effects.)

[SpaceAnemone]

(Space, I hope you’re feeling better. Kicking ass definitely has therapeutic effects.)

I'm doing okay, though I think today is the first day I didn't even bother trying to go to the office. I really like work, so I hope that's not actually a causal thing! I had to head to the GP surgery again to get the blood tests they booked me in for earlier in the week, and that wiped me out enough that I slept all afternoon. Now it's just after 2am, and I'm feeling much perkier :-P

You'll know my brain is back on some sort of form when I work out where faust got his percentages from in that post where he replied to Ash :-) I feel it's my duty to keep tabs on posted probabilities, because normally I'm all over them. Annoyingly, the thing I wanted to check up on about the baseline probability of at least one scum in a group of 4 took me two or three days to focus on fully enough to be sure I wasn't missing a factor.. normally I can do that sort of thing in my sleep. That's why I was a bit sad faust hadn't just done it in advance so I could check I wasn't going wrong somewhere...

[Chickenwarlord]

NK analysis is absolutely important when shraeye is involved and it's clear his team killed glooble therefore glooble's kill tells us something about shraeye's team. I mean, do you think I'm making that up or just straight wrong?

I think this is where we should focus for now. Glooble seemed to be off the MiX wagon entirely and against the faust votes. This is either some mad misdirection or these are probably not on shraeye's team.
Glooble seemed moderately critical of UoS but not enough that I would think it would paint a target on his back.