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[Swowl]

WCD- talk to me. Why are we chicken over E!?

[Swowl]

Happy St Patty’s day everyone!

[Chickenwarlord]

Or maybe that scum team found Gloobie townie.

Shraeye even mentioned Gloobie as a town read.

With all of this NK analysis going on, we might be overlooking the most simple explanation on Glooble, as evidenced here by Eddie.

I doubt we'll ever get a good understanding of why Shraeye bit the dust today. As far as memory serves no one was really making a case for Shraeye being scum were they? This could be as simple as two scum teams focusing townie-seeming players unlikely to be lynched.

Spitballing some targetfinding for Night 2 here:
Scum likely didn't NK Faust because Faust seemed lynchable after driving the Awaclus wagon. I'm fairly certain I wasn't targeted because I'm super lynchable and look pretty scummy. E had enough detractors from day 1 that he also wouldn't have been a good NK. Eddie's claim makes him a fairly bad NK target, should that be true. MiX was super polarizing on both days.
I think pretty much anyone else from the pool would make sense for scum to knock out.

If raerae is right about Glooble being offed for a reason, it was likely decided after the vote on him failed to get any traction. Maybe we should start looking before the Glooble vote?

[faust]

So what do people think about hunting the non-Shraeye team with the hopes of evening that stuff up?

That's stupid.

[faust]

I do not like faust's case. @faust, is e your remaining neighbor?

No comment.

[faust]

I'd say ashersky is not likely to be Shraeye's partner, given Shraeye's "ashes to ashes" campaign.

That went on for 3 or 4 posts, never had any weight behind it, and shraeye quickly abandons it to join the LaLight wagon.

[faust]

So what do people think about hunting the non-Shraeye team with the hopes of evening that stuff up?

That's stupid.

Slightly longer and less hostile reply:

We have good evidence to look for shraeye's partners. We have very little evidence to find a non-Maquis scum. If anything, looking for non-Maquis scum greatly increases the risk of lynching town because we are excluding people that have a pretty decent chance of flipping scum.

[MiX]

I am suspicious Space's defense of MiX but I can't exactly put my finger on why right at this second (phones are great and terrible all at the same time).

Did you mean Space?  Did I miss this post?

Pretty sure I did and pretty sure there were two. I'll see what I can find in the bigger am hours.

Did you ever talk about this again? Sure shraeye died but the confusion stands.

While I'm talking about D2, @faust, did you ever post that N1 NK analysis? Unrelated, do you think it's important for today?

Rereading raerae just gets me some nulls, not the townieness of M121 raerae but I confess her scumread on me is distorting that, next step might be rereading that game. Oh and rereading e, of course.

[faust]

While I'm talking about D2, @faust, did you ever post that N1 NK analysis? Unrelated, do you think it's important for today?

It was basically "I'm not dead and this implicates my neighbors". Also I think scum avoiding commonly nightkilled players makes it more likely that they have one such player on their team. I think we can see one team killing off strong townie-looking players (mcmc, shraeye) and the other avoiding them in favor of lower profile kills (Jimmmmm, Glooble).

[WestCoastDidds]

WCD- talk to me. Why are we chicken over E!?

Hmmmm....well, I think Chicken looks shifty and his response to pressure hasn’t been awesome, plus he was one of the three who had noticeably less interaction with Shraeye (along with Rae and Space) but he’s also way new so he could just be getting is legs under him. As I’m writing this, I’m thinking more about his response to pressure and it is definitely more moderated than I’d expect (based entirely on me and my cohort) from a newb, and now I wonder if he’s been told not to freak out if he picks up votes, and perhaps he’s also been told he needs to engage more...direction from a scum QT? I think there is a good chance he’s scum, so it’s not a throwaway vote.

I can definitely see moving my vote to e, but it would put him at 5 (L-2) and this seems a bit dangerous this far from deadline with a double voter of unknown alignment out there so I’m holding off until we hear more from e. He’d be a lot more attractive to me if freaking MiX and Eddie weren’t on his wagon.

I think, at this point on Monday morning before I’ve had coffee, I’d be okay voting for chicken, e, or MiX.

What are you thinking? Is it time to go, or to stay the course?

[faust]

WCD- talk to me. Why are we chicken over E!?

Hmmmm....well, I think Chicken looks shifty and his response to pressure hasn’t been awesome, plus he was one of the three who had noticeably less interaction with Shraeye (along with Rae and Space) but he’s also way new so he could just be getting is legs under him. As I’m writing this, I’m thinking more about his response to pressure and it is definitely more moderated than I’d expect (based entirely on me and my cohort) from a newb, and now I wonder if he’s been told not to freak out if he picks up votes, and perhaps he’s also been told he needs to engage more...direction from a scum QT? I think there is a good chance he’s scum, so it’s not a throwaway vote.

I can definitely see moving my vote to e, but it would put him at 5 (L-2) and this seems a bit dangerous this far from deadline with a double voter of unknown alignment out there so I’m holding off until we hear more from e. He’d be a lot more attractive to me if freaking MiX and Eddie weren’t on his wagon.

I think, at this point on Monday morning before I’ve had coffee, I’d be okay voting for chicken, e, or MiX.

What are you thinking? Is it time to go, or to stay the course?

Can you clarify who you would prefer to lynch, e or chicken?

[faust]

Also, I don't understand the reasoning behind fewer interactions = partner. Can you explain?

[MiX]

He’d be a lot more attractive to me if freaking MiX and Eddie weren’t on his wagon.

I forgot why you're scumreading me. But most importantly, what's wrong with Eddie's vote?

[SpaceAnemone]

I am suspicious Space's defense of MiX but I can't exactly put my finger on why right at this second (phones are great and terrible all at the same time).

Did you mean Space?  Did I miss this post?

Pretty sure I did and pretty sure there were two. I'll see what I can find in the bigger am hours.

Did you ever talk about this again? Sure shraeye died but the confusion stands.

What are you feeling confused about, exactly?

[EFHW]

So what do people think about hunting the non-Shraeye team with the hopes of evening that stuff up?

That's stupid.

Slightly longer and less hostile reply:

We have good evidence to look for shraeye's partners. We have very little evidence to find a non-Maquis scum. If anything, looking for non-Maquis scum greatly increases the risk of lynching town because we are excluding people that have a pretty decent chance of flipping scum.

What is the good evidence? His defending e? Do you have leads on other potential partners? We should be looking for any scum. IF we have two teams, there are 3 mirror scum and only two maquis scum to find. We have a better chance of hitting mirror than maquis.

[SpaceAnemone]

While I'm talking about D2, @faust, did you ever post that N1 NK analysis? Unrelated, do you think it's important for today?

It was basically "I'm not dead and this implicates my neighbors". Also I think scum avoiding commonly nightkilled players makes it more likely that they have one such player on their team. I think we can see one team killing off strong townie-looking players (mcmc, shraeye) and the other avoiding them in favor of lower profile kills (Jimmmmm, Glooble).

The one killing off the lower-profile people must be the Maquis, since that's what Shraeye flipped, so you're suggesting that one of the other Maquis is a commonly-NKd player. That also means the one killing off the strong townies is the SK, or the MU team.

I'd actually previously hypothesized this same paring (mcmc-Shraeye and Jimmmmm-Glooble) for another reason, and that's that the first pair are both off-wagon for the Robz lynch, and the second pair are both on-wagon.

Maquis kills: low-profile on-Robz-wagon. This also gels with the fact that Shraeye himself was off-wagon.
Other: "strong townie" off-Robz-wagon.

So I'd guess that if we have an SK, they were more likely on-wagon for Robz, and that if we have an MU team, at least some of them were on there not wanting to be PoEd too easily. We might also find another Maquis off the Robz wagon, too. This is getting all very vague and speculative, though, given we have no way of telling how the NK deaths actually pair up.

[EFHW]

I do not like faust's case. @faust, is e your remaining neighbor?

No comment.

It feels to me like you are trying to manipulate us again.

[faust]

I do not like faust's case. @faust, is e your remaining neighbor?

No comment.

It feels to me like you are trying to manipulate us again.

I mean, you could always go and ask e if he's my neighbor. I don't think revealing that info is beneficial right now. Being my neighbor does not factor strongly into any read I have right now.

[faust]

So what do people think about hunting the non-Shraeye team with the hopes of evening that stuff up?

That's stupid.

Slightly longer and less hostile reply:

We have good evidence to look for shraeye's partners. We have very little evidence to find a non-Maquis scum. If anything, looking for non-Maquis scum greatly increases the risk of lynching town because we are excluding people that have a pretty decent chance of flipping scum.

What is the good evidence? His defending e? Do you have leads on other potential partners? We should be looking for any scum. IF we have two teams, there are 3 mirror scum and only two maquis scum to find. We have a better chance of hitting mirror than maquis.

The evidence is everything shraeye did and all interactions people had with shraeye. Yes I have leads on other potential partners.

I would not vote someone if I thought they were kind of likely to be Maquis but super unlikely to be other scum. But that is purely theoretical because having such a read at this point in the game is impossible. Every Maquis suspect has a decent chance to flip MU. Plus we don't know if MU even exists. Hunting for nonexistent scum seems like a pretty bad idea.

[EFHW]

re: Chicken leaving MiX's wagon, I don't think having a scum partner join a wagon would make me leave. I'd assume that partner wanted us to be on the same wagon for a reason.

[WestCoastDidds]

Also, I don't understand the reasoning behind fewer interactions = partner. Can you explain?

I’m not sure that it = partner, but when I did the reread it was noticeable how much Shraeye interacted with/about everyone except for those three. (He made a comment or two about Shraeye/raerae confusion but didn’t address her). It just felt off to me, especially in light of how many of the folks he interacted with flipped town.

As far as my lynch peference, like I said, I’m waiting to see what e has to say for himself in regard to the wagon, but at the moment they are both in top 3.

[WestCoastDidds]

He’d be a lot more attractive to me if freaking MiX and Eddie weren’t on his wagon.

I forgot why you're scumreading me. But most importantly, what's wrong with Eddie's vote?

Eddie votes without articulated reasons and moves His vote frequently. He is also voting for me a lot, which I know is short-sighted. I don’t find him especially town-helpful right now. Not scummy, necessarily, but his presence on e’s wagon doesn’t make it seems townier.

[faust]

As far as my lynch peference, like I said, I’m waiting to see what e has to say for himself in regard to the wagon, but at the moment they are both in top 3.

That does not answer my question. Also e already responded to the wagon. If deadline was now, would you prefer to lynch chicken or e?

[raerae]

Okay, raerae, who would you vote for after MiX?

I want MiX, why do I have to compromise on that? I'm constantly accused of knowing anything and everything about shraeye, a shraerae team accusation gets made every game we're in, yet now when I actually feel confident about something related to him I'm dismissed because how could I ever possibly know anything about how shraeye thinks? It's nonsense. I'm not moving.

[raerae]

I am suspicious Space's defense of MiX but I can't exactly put my finger on why right at this second (phones are great and terrible all at the same time).

Did you mean Space?  Did I miss this post?

Pretty sure I did and pretty sure there were two. I'll see what I can find in the bigger am hours.

Did you ever talk about this again? Sure shraeye died but the confusion stands.

While I'm talking about D2, @faust, did you ever post that N1 NK analysis? Unrelated, do you think it's important for today?

Rereading raerae just gets me some nulls, not the townieness of M121 raerae but I confess her scumread on me is distorting that, next step might be rereading that game. Oh and rereading e, of course.

Space answered it for me.