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[Haddock]

yeah, because being a dayvig is not the same as being IC. All things considered it's much more suspicious that joth asked for justifying his reasons to vote for ash

I also didn't think ash was IC (obviously I was on her wagon.) But I was mostly pointing out that you jumped in to answer joth's question minutes after he posted it. It seems, as I mentioned earlier, opportunistic. I'll buy the excuse that you were in a much more tense other game as a reason for not jumping in more. But it seems like you did jump in very quickly when you had a chance to persuade someone to be on ash's wagon.

That being said, Jonah's hedging in that exchange also comes off kinda scummy. Like he's trying to give himself deniability in the event ash turns up town.

So you're saying every other wagon was on my scum partner, so ash was my only way to derail everything? No. I just thought ash is scum. And mostly think so now. Maybe third-party, but i don't think ash is town.

Nyeh. Thing is, ash's behaviour and apparent role doesn't seem to me to be consistent with the Aanander faction, whatever's going on with them. If he's nontown and non scum (and assuming there's a scum faction other than Aanander, which I admit is a  big assumption), then you're essentially suggesting he's 4th party?
Just not seeing it, especially in light of a positive cop result.

vote: 2.71828.....

1-shot cop is also something I would expect useful for the guys who can't recruit scum.

oh, and we don't have any reason to believe it's 1-shot. Survivor-cult-cop is so beautifully elegant

We should talk about the fact that LaLight voted for the claimed cop and her justification is that e's claimed power makes her likely to be part of the recruiter faction (which is explicitly not scum). LaLight, why are you voting for someone you don't think is scum?

let's talk about this.

The third party who is explicitly not scum? This doesn't work. they have their own win condition. And YOU (unless you're with them) do not know it.

Agree with this. We don't actually have any solid information on the Aanander win con.

Well, actually:  hyper, is it possible you've been deceived, or is the information you've been given mod-confirmed?



Other news: I'm happy to continue the robz wagon as a proderator, but am conflicted now. The timing of the recent robz votes has a whiff of scum-pushing easy wagon.

[SpaceAnemone]

While I remember, Haddock will be at my place tomorrow evening for Games Night, so I won't even be booting my laptop while he's around, just to keep f.ds and RL properly separate. That means my content tomorrow will probably be minimal. Sorry!

Another twinclaim!

I did mention it as soon as he joined the thread, just in case it altered anyone's reads of us:

Not quite another twinclaim, but Haddock is the IRL friend who got me into f.ds mafia several years ago.

[ashersky]

LL was super odd in that string of posts.  LL's usually a good ash-reader, too, but I guess it's been awhile.

Robz votes are scummy in that they aren't based on anything but not being here.  Robz's "I'm busy IRL" did come in the game thread and not the VLA thread, so it is possible he's lying, I guess, but has anyone really played that card (ever?).  It's one thing to not post for awhile and then fudge the excuse as IRL busy-ness, but to proactively lie about a plan to skip some days is a bit over-the-top, and not very Robzlike.

So yeah.  Boo on that whole thought process.

[LaLight]

LL was super odd in that string of posts.  LL's usually a good ash-reader, too, but I guess it's been awhile.

Robz votes are scummy in that they aren't based on anything but not being here.  Robz's "I'm busy IRL" did come in the game thread and not the VLA thread, so it is possible he's lying, I guess, but has anyone really played that card (ever?).  It's one thing to not post for awhile and then fudge the excuse as IRL busy-ness, but to proactively lie about a plan to skip some days is a bit over-the-top, and not very Robzlike.

So yeah.  Boo on that whole thought process.

I am a good ash-reader? Since when? I remember Breaking Bad game it was awful back then.

Also I am not trying to lynch Robz.

[ashersky]

On this possible cult alignment thing...

Cults are generally BM only.  To make it work in this game, faust would have to at least announce the possibility of alignment changes (he did), work out a way to make sure alignment changes didn't affect the previous alignment negatively (which would mean excluding scum), and find a way to make sure the game was at least somewhat fun for all.

Cults generally start out with one player (Cult Leader, bA in this scenario).  LL's not-well-thought-out complaint that "if the cult were really pro-town, why didn't someone claim so" doesn't work given this probability; there was one member on N0 who may or may not have been able to attempt a recruit pre-game.  I would assume they wouldn't know if it worked until N1, so D1 was a no-go for claiming, especially since the entire cult loses if bA dies.

As for the rest -- my best guess is bA can attempt to recruit any player and never actually learns the results.  If a player dies, maybe he knows that was a decline; if a player survives, maybe they joined or maybe they never got the invite (because of current alignment).  For example, bA invites scum, but it isn't delivered because scum is not a valid target.

It makes for a nervous game, given you never know how many players are with you.  I'd assume it's an unblockable power, so bA could invite a different player each night to try to gain numbers without worrying about previous unknowns.  But who knows; I'm not the mod.

So, that's a long brainstorm on how you could theoretically make a cult non-BM and explain why there wouldn't be a claim D1 (or ever if bA needs to survive) directly from known cult members.

[ashersky]

LL was super odd in that string of posts.  LL's usually a good ash-reader, too, but I guess it's been awhile.

Robz votes are scummy in that they aren't based on anything but not being here.  Robz's "I'm busy IRL" did come in the game thread and not the VLA thread, so it is possible he's lying, I guess, but has anyone really played that card (ever?).  It's one thing to not post for awhile and then fudge the excuse as IRL busy-ness, but to proactively lie about a plan to skip some days is a bit over-the-top, and not very Robzlike.

So yeah.  Boo on that whole thought process.

I am a good ash-reader? Since when? I remember Breaking Bad game it was awful back then.

Also I am not trying to lynch Robz.

I'd say yes.  Well, in that you always think I'm town, so you are usually right (when I'm town).  So if you think I'm town now, you'd be right.

[ashersky]

In my brainstormed Cult scenario, assuming the win con explained to us was real, the Cult Leader player could literally just play as a town-only survivor while hoping the gA dies.  That'd meet the win condition (all threats to town gone, only remaining A is her).

The most difficult part of the role is trying to get one specific townie killed while still playing toward town's win condition.  Adding cult members doesn't seem to be important (at least not in the explanation we heard).

[LaLight]

there's still a question, why hypercube didn't join the cult and claim the whole same things he did claim

[hypercube]

Apologies, I neglected to mention this, but I was told that if I decided to join the cult I would join a QT with the leader at the end of the Day.

Again, this is all based on information I received directly from faust, so I don't think it's possible that I've been misled.

To answer LL's question about why it's pro-town for me to die rather than join the cult and live, if I was actually part of the cult right now there's no reason for you to believe what I'm saying. It's very possible that eventually cooperation between town and the cult will help town win the game, and that cooperation is probably impossible unless town actually knows that the cult's win condition aligns with ours, since claiming such would be an obvious play for a non-town aligned cult.

Regarding the rA, bA, gA stuff, that's certainly one possibility. The other possibility that I could think of is that everyone who joins the cult becomes Anaander Mianaai, and in order for the cult to win all of the non-leader members must die before the end of the game. I think that's less likely, but it's worth considering.

[hypercube]

If I had a strong PR (especially one which could be used to protect the leader) I probably would have joined the cult. As I'm a VT, I can't protect the leader other than with my voice and my vote (which probably would end up looking scummy), and I'm not super necessary for catching scum. I don't exactly have a long history of making good reads, after all. Additionally my wagon was getting a good amount of action D1 so my flip helps town a bit in that way as well.

[hypercube]

Anyways vote: LL starting a wagon on someone while openly stating you have no intention of lynching them is scummy. Probably not understanding why pro-town things are pro-town is also not indicative of a town mindset.

[SpaceAnemone]

Other news: I'm happy to continue the robz wagon as a proderator, but am conflicted now. The timing of the recent robz votes has a whiff of scum-pushing easy wagon.

TBH, I was tempted to throw a vote on the pile, since I have to get a vote down somewhere, and I'm still torn about where else to put it. Also, I think accepting unapologetic extended lurker play is bad for mafia on this site overall. Robz has made his public identity known on this site before, so I've read some of his real-life work. The fact I saw him mentioned by name in an article shared by a UK-based friend of a completely different political flavour in the past day or two makes me suspect that Robz may well be busy right now!

Anyway, I think we have sufficiently more information now than D1 that policy-lynching isn't really the best option. Can we go back to your hunch about Joth and Mail-mi? If you're suspicious that their behaviour means that one or other could be scum, would you put ~40% or so on each of them being some kind of scum? Is there anyone in the game you think is more than 40% likely to be scum? If not, why not scumhunt along those lines instead of pushing a lurker lynch?

PPE 9 (work keeps getting in the way...!)

[Haddock]

Anyways vote: LL starting a wagon on someone while openly stating you have no intention of lynching them is scummy. Probably not understanding why pro-town things are pro-town is also not indicative of a town mindset.

To be fair to LL, the wagon already existed.  I do agree that her recent behaviour is fairly scummy, though.

Other news: I'm happy to continue the robz wagon as a proderator, but am conflicted now. The timing of the recent robz votes has a whiff of scum-pushing easy wagon.

TBH, I was tempted to throw a vote on the pile, since I have to get a vote down somewhere, and I'm still torn about where else to put it. Also, I think accepting unapologetic extended lurker play is bad for mafia on this site overall. Robz has made his public identity known on this site before, so I've read some of his real-life work. The fact I saw him mentioned by name in an article shared by a UK-based friend of a completely different political flavour in the past day or two makes me suspect that Robz may well be busy right now!

Anyway, I think we have sufficiently more information now than D1 that policy-lynching isn't really the best option. Can we go back to your hunch about Joth and Mail-mi? If you're suspicious that their behaviour means that one or other could be scum, would you put ~40% or so on each of them being some kind of scum? Is there anyone in the game you think is more than 40% likely to be scum? If not, why not scumhunt along those lines instead of pushing a lurker lynch?

PPE 9 (work keeps getting in the way...!)

Weird that you would say you were thinking of throwing a vote on the pile and then scold me for having a vote there.
The bolded part is a fairly bad misrepresentation, I think I've made it clear that I was leaving my vote there as a motivational tool and in the absence of something better.

Also, no I wouldn't agree that there's a 40% chance of either being scum.  Maybe 25-30?  The fight makes them both look bad, but it doesn't make them look "80%-chance of at least one being scum" bad.


If it helps, here are my reads:

Slight-to-Moderate scum:
Swan, joth, Lalight, in approximately ascending order of scumminess.

Slight scum:
Space, Robz

Very slight scum:
mail-mi

Null:
Anyone not mentioned elsewhere on this list

Slight town:
Glooble, ash

Moderate town:
e

Strong town:
hyper, unless and until end of day proves otherwise.

[Haddock]

mmf.

I guess in light of the above, vote: lalight

[LaLight]

this is interesting. As soon as I really think i can see a bigger picture and feel like i get more useful, I get a wagon

[LaLight]

the idea behind wagoning Robz was that if he comes after vla and sees a wagon on him, if he is scum, he might've slipped, but whatever. I thought it was a good idea and try to contribute. Let's go back to vote: 2.71828.....

[LaLight]

although I now start to feel that Haddock and Space are scums, because of their exchange and because one of them is quick to vote me and one of them defends me. This looks like finding a convenient mislynch target and cooperating to look townier

[2.71828.....]

I like the case against LaLight, and LaLight's reactions haven't done anything to scream town at me.

Vote: LaLight

[Glooble]

None of LaLight’s reactions are giving me any desire to change my vote.

I have been thinking about the possibility of an e/ash scum team. It seems like the most plausible explanation for ash’s not dying from the lynch and claiming not to know about it. But I definitely don’t think the possibility is high enough that we should go after either of them today. I just don’t want to fall into the trap of treating them as IC.

[Glooble]

To expand a bit, the only reason I’m still suspicious of ash (and therefore e, as I otherwise have a very strong townread on e) is the fact that she didn’t die from the lynch. I can’t think of any plausible explanation for that other than it was her power and she’s lying about it. If someone who has played more mafia with weird setups than I have has another possible explanation, I would love to hear it.

[jotheonah]

Geeez this game gets active at night!

vote: LaLight

For so many reasons, really. Hate the Robz vote. (But seriously Robz, get involved or replace out!)

I think this is L-2

[jotheonah]

To expand a bit, the only reason I’m still suspicious of ash (and therefore e, as I otherwise have a very strong townread on e) is the fact that she didn’t die from the lynch. I can’t think of any plausible explanation for that other than it was her power and she’s lying about it. If someone who has played more mafia with weird setups than I have has another possible explanation, I would love to hear it.

I agree it’s hard to figure out. Ash’s explanation that it’s part of Mcmc’s role doesn’t make a lot of sense. Is it meant to work on scum Nks? On the hammer voter? Does it make any sense with mcmc’s character?

Maybe we should seriously consider LaLight’s suggestion that scum has a dayvig that’s balanced by not getting their nightkill? That would fit the facts. But being both hated and lynchproof is such a weird combo.

[LaLight]

alright then

I am Queter, a Radch-Aligned Shy Bugged Compulsive Visitor. I have to visit someone every night. If I don't get targeted by anyone and my Visit will be successful, I will become Self-Aligned with powers and win condition yet unknown. Bugged part of my role is that if investigated I will return Human or AI result with 50% probability for each. N1 I targeted Haddock and nothing happened.

[faust]

Vote Count 2.3

jotheonah (1): mail-mi
LaLight (5): Glooble, hypercube, Haddock, 2.71828....., jotheonah
Robz888 (1): Awaclus
2.71828..... (1): LaLight

Not Voting (5): SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, WestCoastDidds, Robz888, ashersky

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on January 29, 2019, 01:00:00 am.

[jotheonah]

I have no idea what to make of this claim. Do you feel it informs any of your actions?