With this post i bring you phone posted VCA theory of day 1. Sorry I’m advance.
1) this was the VC 2.5 hours to DL.
Swan Attempt at VC from phone - 2.5 hrs to DL
Galzria (4): EFHW, Glooble, Space, Eddie
EFHW (6): Galzria, WestCoastDidds, DatSwan, Awaclus, MiX, Joth
jotheonah (2): A Drowned Kernel, faust,
faust (1): pingpongsam
DatSwan (1): 2.71828.....
MiX (1): Shraeye
WCD (1): Pubby
- i chose this VC bc i think it represents a valuable point at which our known IC had the viable counter wagon running, and it is before the Joth wagon starts to get big.
- At this point we want to be looking for people bailing on the EFHW wagon, or people off wagon trying to vamp one of the other wagons. Obviously, Galz is the only for sure town wagon, but Amy attempts to stall a skum wagon should raise eyebrows (even if the stall is done with Joth)
2) Here are the players who were on the EFHW wagon, and ended up on the EFHW Wagon:
Awaclus:
- joins EFHW wagon putting them at L1. Stays on the wagon.
- again, given potential alternatives, i don’t think Awaclus!EFHW is likely.
Swan:
- my argument for my towniness is the same as awa pretty much. I could of gone some where else, but i went EFHW and stayed there.
Joth:
- could of chosen Galz or EFHW. We know Galz is town. We know efhw is skum.
- so if Joth is skum, again, not with EFHW. And i think they town.
Galz:
- town
WCD:
- only players that had more chances to jump off the EFHW wagon we’re Galz and Faust... but she chose to stay instead of promoting any of the counter options.
*it may sound naive, but i think given the potential switches that were made available to these players... i think it is possible all of the above 5 players are town.*
3)The players that switched over to the EFHW wagon, and ended there were...
Space:
- on Galz for a while. Come back final minutes to move to EFHW.
- voting EFHW makes it Joth(4) vs EFHW(6).
- no way they do this and are buddies with EFHW.
Glooble:
- glooble was sitting on Galz, WITH EFHW...
- they move to EFHW over Joth making it 7-4 i believe
- again, just makes no sense as partner of EFHW.
E:
- no one comes in and hammers their buddy like that, that close to DL when there is the chance that no lynch happens.
MiX:
- leaves EFHW for Galz, then moves to Joth.
- eventually, with 15m left, comes back to EFHW while making a pretty decent Joth case.
- so at the minimum, if MiX is skum, it sure as hell ain’t with EFHW (or most likely Joth).
*Summary of that group of players - not only did some of them move off of the town Galz wagon to the skum EFHW wagon, but most of them moved off of it and had Joth as a viable move instead... so yeah like pretty damn towny there*
Now obviously adding those two groups up and coming up with like no solid skum reads kind of is weird. Makes me think 2 things.
1) probz more than 1 skum team.
2) makes me want to look at people that were not on the EFHW wagon. However, people who were off wagon, if skum Mates with EFHW, would of gone for Galz or Joth as defense. So by sitting idle, they were just sealing the fate of their buddy.
3) then there is the Joth wagon. If they were there before EFHW wagon climbed they could confidently continue to push their Joth case without being looked at for switching (adk). They could come up with a reason to bail on the EFHW when it gets big (Faust). Or they could choose someone that is not EFHW when they move their vote (Eddie).
Ok like i said - all from phone so I’m sorry about format. But essentially i think [faust,Eddie, adk] is a good place to focus.
I need to do a read from the Galz is IC perspective and overlay those VCAs, but again... from phone so gonna take a day or so.
vote: ADK