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[Uncleeurope]

Y’all are goofballs.

I trust WCD substantially more, now.

[Uncleeurope]

Read ADK’s posts, people. Is it just me that sees scumminess there?

[ashersky]

Vote Count 2.3:

faust (1): joth
ADK (1): Uncle
Uncle (3): faust, MiX, ADK

Not Voting (10): Awaclus, Galzria, WCD, PPS, Datswan, Space, Glooble, shraeye, 2.7, pubby

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.  Day 2 ends at 10:00 p.m. on August 12.

[WestCoastDidds]

Rereading....for now,

Vote: ADK

[MiX]

That would take nerves of steel from me! There were so many options to switch, especially when faust was pushing not-EFHW. I’m pretty sure that if I knew EFHW was my partner, I’d have been anywhere but there. I’m not a risky person, and usually choose the safe play. A bus like that...when the lynch wasn’t assured would be super risky. When I went to bed before the deadline I worried about lynching someone VLA, but not moving my vote at that point made the wagon more stable. So, however scummy you may have thought I was at the beginning, there isn’t a scum narrative that makes sense for me staying on and ensuring EFHW was lynched when there were lots of town alternatives the day before the lynch.

Bolding mine. Traitor slip? Anything's possible with Didds.

So I did some minor VCAs and obviously Galzria is IC even without Awaclus' power which makes me want to lynch him, so...yeah. I don't have anything else now, just some suspicion on Uncle and Didds. I think I would lynch between these 3. And for everyone thinking ADK's scum: he cannot have a fakeclaim with a flavor number of 6 as scum. Let's just leave it at that. Plus he's towny.

[Uncleeurope]

Fair point about the fake claim number, I had forgotten about that.

[Uncleeurope]

Okay, I am going to do a 180 on this and switch to being more suspicious of other people. Lemme go look for other people to be suspicious of.

Possible candidates include Shraeye and PPS.

[Swowl]

With this post i bring you phone posted VCA theory of day 1. Sorry I’m advance.

1) this was the VC 2.5 hours to DL.

Swan Attempt at VC from phone - 2.5 hrs to DL


Galzria (4): EFHW, Glooble, Space, Eddie
EFHW (6): Galzria, WestCoastDidds, DatSwan, Awaclus, MiX, Joth
jotheonah (2): A Drowned Kernel, faust,
faust (1): pingpongsam
DatSwan (1): 2.71828.....
MiX (1): Shraeye
WCD (1): Pubby

- i chose this VC bc i think it represents a valuable point at which our known IC had the viable counter wagon running, and it is before the Joth wagon starts to get big.
- At this point we want to be looking for people bailing on the EFHW wagon, or people off wagon trying to vamp one of the other wagons. Obviously, Galz is the only for sure town wagon, but Amy attempts to stall a skum wagon should raise eyebrows (even if the stall is done with Joth)

2) Here are the players who were on the EFHW wagon, and ended up on the EFHW Wagon:

 Awaclus:
- joins EFHW wagon putting them at L1. Stays on the wagon.
- again, given potential alternatives, i don’t think Awaclus!EFHW is likely.

Swan:
- my argument for my towniness is the same as awa pretty much. I could of gone some where else, but i went EFHW and stayed there.

Joth:
- could of chosen Galz or EFHW. We know Galz is town. We know efhw is skum.
- so if Joth is skum, again, not with EFHW. And i think they town.

Galz:
- town

WCD:
- only players  that had more chances to jump off the EFHW wagon we’re Galz and Faust... but she chose to stay instead of promoting any of the counter options.

*it may sound naive, but i think given the potential switches that were made available to these players... i think it is possible all of the above 5 players are town.*


3)The players that switched over to the EFHW wagon, and ended there were...

Space:
- on Galz for a while. Come back final minutes to move to EFHW.
- voting EFHW makes it Joth(4) vs EFHW(6).
- no way they do this and are buddies with EFHW.

Glooble:
- glooble was sitting on Galz, WITH EFHW...
- they move to EFHW over Joth making it 7-4 i believe
- again, just makes no sense as partner of EFHW.

E:
- no one comes in and hammers their buddy like that, that close to DL when there is the chance that no lynch happens.

MiX:
- leaves EFHW for Galz, then moves to Joth.
- eventually, with 15m left, comes back to EFHW while making a pretty decent Joth case.
- so at the minimum, if MiX is skum, it sure as hell ain’t with EFHW (or most likely Joth).

*Summary of that group of players - not only did some of them move off of the town Galz wagon to the skum EFHW wagon, but most of them moved off of it and had Joth as a viable move instead... so yeah like pretty damn towny there*



Now obviously adding those two groups up and coming up with like no solid skum reads kind of is weird. Makes me think 2 things.

1) probz more than 1 skum team.
2) makes me want to look at people that were not on the EFHW wagon. However, people who were off wagon, if skum Mates with EFHW, would of gone for Galz or Joth as defense. So by sitting idle, they were just sealing the fate of their buddy.
3) then there is the Joth wagon. If they were there before EFHW wagon climbed they could confidently continue to push their Joth case without being looked at for switching (adk). They could come up with a reason to bail on the EFHW when it gets big (Faust). Or they could choose someone that is not EFHW when they move their vote (Eddie).


Ok like i said - all from phone so I’m sorry about format. But essentially i think [faust,Eddie, adk] is a good place to focus.

I need to do a read from the Galz is IC perspective and overlay those VCAs, but again... from phone so gonna take a day or so.

vote: ADK

[faust]

1) probz more than 1 skum team.

Seems quite improbable given that there was no nightkill.

[faust]

Awaclus: Could the use of your power have resulted in you yourself being IC'd?

[Awaclus]

Awaclus: Could the use of your power have resulted in you yourself being IC'd?

No.

[MiX]

Awaclus: Could the use of your power have resulted in you yourself being IC'd?

No.

Could it IC someone who dies N1?

[Awaclus]

Awaclus: Could the use of your power have resulted in you yourself being IC'd?

No.

Could it IC someone who dies N1?

No.

[pubby]

Vote: faust

I don't agree with the eddie votes.

[MiX]

Vote: faust

I don't agree with the eddie votes.

Why?

[SpaceAnemone]

Got a bit behind earlier today, but I'm all caught up now.

I've done a bit of wagon-gazing, looking at EFHW in particular.

In addition to stating that she thought MiX was town in D1, she also rather conspicuously didn't join his wagon even when he was the main alternative to her own lynch. At #612, PPS switched from MiX to EFHW, taking MiX from 4 to 3 votes, and EFHW from 3 to 4. MiX himself was on the EFHW wagon, so even if she's previously stated (pretty mildly) that she thought he was town, that should have been enough to justify joining his wagon, but instead she went for Galz, who at that point had no votes.

MiX also conspicuously wavered from the EFHW wagon after it had grown pretty big: he jumps to GalZ (equalizing the wagons at 5 apiece) at #878, then onto Joth (which he seemed to have been setting up previously, via a one-post vote for EFHW at #884. He only came back to EFHW after I and then Glooble has also moved there, putting himself in the L-1 position, when he'd clearly been preparing a case on Joth in the meantime, because his EFHW vote was a PPE directly in response to our two votes, i.e. when the EFHW lynch already looked like a really strong possibility.

Anyway, it's making me quite suspicious of MiX all over again. It's also very convenient how his IC-ing plan just happened to fail already...

Vote: MiX

[MiX]

Anyway, it's making me quite suspicious of MiX all over again. It's also very convenient how his IC-ing plan just happened to fail already...

In my defense, it would work much better if literally anything bad (like town dying) had happened this game.

To the rest, we lynched EFHW precisely because she didn't jump on my wagon, there's no way town!EFHW does a flip on me, so scum!EFHW can't do that to save herself. Instead she pushed Galzria. Also see my reactions to faust's derail, they're okay at first. Other than that, I sheeped faust on the original EFHW case way past his own vote, at most you can accuse me of taking advantage of the derail? Fine it's a good case, I would need to analyze my own posts to prove otherwise and self-analysis never works.

[MiX]

Looking back, my joth case is a big pile of nothing if I knew EFHW would flip scum, why even make it? It's not going to be used at all, any counterwagons to scum are towny. Also I always voted and pushed to vote EFHW untill deadline, why would I wait that long to create a counterwagon?

[SpaceAnemone]

Let's handle the EFHW-MiX thing first:

To the rest, we lynched EFHW precisely because she didn't jump on my wagon, there's no way town!EFHW does a flip on me, so scum!EFHW can't do that to save herself. Instead she pushed Galzria. Also see my reactions to faust's derail, they're okay at first. Other than that, I sheeped faust on the original EFHW case way past his own vote, at most you can accuse me of taking advantage of the derail? Fine it's a good case, I would need to analyze my own posts to prove otherwise and self-analysis never works.

That doesn't quite address my point. EFHW was in the lynch pool because we hypothesized that there would be at least one off-wagon scum regardless of your alignment. However, she's even less likely to have voted you if you're scum than if you're town, so if anything, it's more incriminating, not less.

As for staying on her wagon, yes, I think you did try to look townie in case she was lynched, but also to derail it when it looked like there was a good chance to do so. I think it's a tough balancing act to play as scum.

In particular, you did jump earlier (#830), and explicitly pointed out when you moved the first time that "everyone's derailing the EFHW wagon": i.e. "blame everyone, it's not my fault I have to move". The fact you were pushing a case on Joth at the end shows that you were still trying to get a switch to him right up to the point where two consecutive EFHW votes made that wagon look inevitable. And now looking at your most recent post:

Looking back, my joth case is a big pile of nothing if I knew EFHW would flip scum, why even make it? It's not going to be used at all, any counterwagons to scum are towny. Also I always voted and pushed to vote EFHW untill deadline, why would I wait that long to create a counterwagon?

This post makes zero sense to me. Like, if you're scum with EFHW, it makes perfect sense to make your Joth case in an effort to push his wagon over your buddy's wagon especially when waverers like me were both online and showing interest on possibly voting Joth over EFHW. Why are you arguing that the case is useless?

On town's part, there was a lot of luck involved in getting the EFHW lynch through. It was partly based on the fact that those of us based in Europe (you, me, faust, e) were the ones more able to move and were mostly off-wagon in the half hour before deadline, giving more capacity to pull votes to EFHW than to anyone else. The fact that Glooble came along (at what must have been super-early o'clock in his timezone) and was not inclined to vote for his twin was what really swung it. If Glooble's vote hadn't been there, I think I would probably have gone to Joth as the one who looked most likely to go through, given that both you and faust were supporting a not-EFHW lynch.

I also find it interesting that you don't seem to have made any reference to your Joth suspicions on D2, even though there was no real logic in D1 to say EFHW and Joth were an either-or thing.

[SpaceAnemone]

There' also this:

Anyway, it's making me quite suspicious of MiX all over again. It's also very convenient how his IC-ing plan just happened to fail already...

In my defense, it would work much better if literally anything bad (like town dying) had happened this game.

While I doubt scum intended for EFHW's death D1, it's possible they knew their (presumed!) NK was likely not to go through on N1. This means that maybe scum!you could already have been planning that as an excuse when you made the IC claim.

[Uncleeurope]

An off-wagon kill is he play here, though. No?

Especially if one considers NK options. I would think MiX would be near the top of the list if he was indeed town. And not having a kill opens up doctor possibilities. And a doctor would be incentivized to target MiX based on his claim over other people. I feel like MiX is a bad call. But I could be wrong here.

[MiX]

There' also this:

Anyway, it's making me quite suspicious of MiX all over again. It's also very convenient how his IC-ing plan just happened to fail already...

In my defense, it would work much better if literally anything bad (like town dying) had happened this game.

While I doubt scum intended for EFHW's death D1, it's possible they knew their (presumed!) NK was likely not to go through on N1. This means that maybe scum!you could already have been planning that as an excuse when you made the IC claim.

But if my "IC plan" is all lies, why would I plan ahead a made-up fail???

Also look at the timestamp of my big joth case: less than an hour before deadline. It's useless.

[SpaceAnemone]

An off-wagon kill is he play here, though. No?

I don't see why that would need to be the case. There are nine alive on-wagon people, and six alive off-wagon people. However, with Galz being on-wagon and IC, and a bunch of us on-wagon also knowing ourselves to be town gives some of us PoE that's almost equivalent on-wagon and off-wagon (7 on vs 6 off). I'm happy enough looking at who I'm actually suspicious of in these circumstances.

Especially if one considers NK options. I would think MiX would be near the top of the list if he was indeed town. And not having a kill opens up doctor possibilities. And a doctor would be incentivized to target MiX based on his claim over other people. I feel like MiX is a bad call. But I could be wrong here.

Sure, the lack of NK could be due to doctoring, commuting, bulletproof townies, redirecting onto bulletproof players, weird kill restrictions, and a host of other things. We're playing in something that's supposed to be a complicated RMM setup. And even if we have a doctor, I don't think that MiX is the obvious choice for every player.. a bunch of us were willing to give him a D1 pass, but not to embrace him as a proto-IC without evidence.

[SpaceAnemone]

But if my "IC plan" is all lies, why would I plan ahead a made-up fail???

Because it got you out of getting lynched D1! You needed something to claim that wasn't immediately verifiable, and claiming you can eventually make yourself IC in some completely-undefined way fits the bill. It fits it especially well if you know you'll have wiggle room later to say something along the lines of "well I thought I could make myself IC, but the plan isn't working because of X".

Also look at the timestamp of my big joth case: less than an hour before deadline. It's useless.

Then why did you make your Joth case in the first place? The question here is not "was the case on Joth useful?". The question is, "given that you were definitely pushing a case on Joth, what do we think your intention in making it was?".

I still assert that you wanted to drive enough people to Joth that EFHW's lynch didn't go through, especially since the EoD timing was such that the players available close to deadline were restricted, and there was a very real chance that no wagon got quite enough votes to tip it over the edge. I was close to going to Joth over EFHW, and I'd said as much in-thread. It's no stretch of the imagination at all to think that maybe all it would have taken to stall the EFHW lynch was a little more support for Joth.

[Awaclus]

In my defense, it would work much better if literally anything bad (like town dying) had happened this game.

So you are saying that as soon as town dies, you will be an IC?