Let's refactor my big chunk of reasoning from yesterday that the rest of you don't seem to be commenting on, in the hope that someone else out there can help flesh it out a bit.
First up, let's examine the case for scum!sudgy.
Possibility 1: He guessed the right game and ended up at sport #2. He claims he joined a little too late for that to be the case. Maybe he'd have seen it alluded to in later games, though, especially if it's the kind of thing several others have picked as their favourite game. Of all the players, he seems the most likely out of all of us to be the #2 person, because O left too early (and the "he was almost around at the right time" argument doesn't work backwards in time!), Galz really seems to have picked slot 11 (which would be totally bizarre as a draft-order-2 choice), and Dylan and I joined way too late. If this is the case, it seems exceedingly likely that one of the other scums (for instance ash) had the draft position he's claimed now, and bid on slot 6 as he claimed.
Possibility 2: He really was at draft position 7, but can't be just a goon because if sudgy is scum Galz is lying, so must have bid on slot 3 (roleblocker) or slot 8 (strongman). The only way it could have been safe to claim that he went for UB is if he knew another scum placed above him actually did go for that slot after Jimmmmm in the ordering, which is only possible if e lied about his draft position and that position was actually occupied by scum. So I don't think a scum!sudgy at draft position 7 can have done anything other than hazard a guess at slot 6 being safe on the grounds that he knows someone took something from it and hopes it was someone above him in the precedence order. Oh, and it wasn't even just slot 6, it was the UB role in particular. If one of the people in the "random" slots (11-13) had seen UB in their options, that would have rumbled sudgy on the spot, so I think that's just too big a risk. (And note that that risk isn't present for someone like Dylan who only had to claim a slot and not a particular role).
Possibility 3: He was at a lower draft position than he claimed, and one of the scum goons actually had the draft place and slot bid he claimed. That would make a certain amount of sense if someone like ash had actually been at position 7, and bid on bus driver from the slot 6. Though why do ash (or Calamitas or whoever) and sudgy then swap around the claims and push the holder of a good PR higher up the list? The slot 6 claim would have worked just as well at a lower slot.
The problem with all of these scenarios is that one of two things has to have happened:
1) Scum took their second- or third-highest-drafted player and had them bid on UB or something else in slot 6. This is something that has to be explained even if we think sudgy was at draft order 2 and merely claiming Calamitas's spot and bid, because why would Calamitas have made that bid?
2) Sudgy made a hopelessly risky fake-claim, butting much more info out there than he would have needed to at that stage in the claiming exercise. Given that we know he has to be holding the RB or strongman, he had no guarantee that the PR he actually claimed hadn't ended up in one of slots 11-13 to make him instantly counterclaimable.
... so anyone wanting to encourage us to vote sudgy needs to have an explanation for this stuff. I mean, it's also entirely possible that sudgy isn't playing as we'd expect, and did just take what might look like an ill-judged gamble with the claim that's now actually paying off, but if we believe that's the best explanation we should be willing to talk about it..
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Topic: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- GAME OVER (Read 423567 times)