Dylan, you've been a bit careless with your analysis of the claims -- sudgy's in particular, so I want to pick at that a bit...
You keep saying that sudgy's claim might have been safe because a mason had already flipped. Given that he claimed draft order 7, that means that unless someone in the first six places had picked mason, it was still totally unsafe to claim UB with a VT role, because he should have been expected to have a role if he'd picked it ahead of the next person. And given that we already knew that faust had taken first place, that means that sudgy had to hope that one of only five unclaimed players above him, rather that one of the 16 below him, had picked slot 6. That's significantly less likely than you're giving it credit for being.
I think the main risk with sudgy is exactly the same as the main risk with you, which is that one of you actually got draft order #2, but claimed Calamitas's draft order and slot bid, or maybe did a more comprehensive slot-bid swap-around with other scums. I think it seems exceedingly likely that whoever had draft order 7 tried for slot 6, and not much less likely that whoever had draft order 8 went for slot 13, though given that we know slot 13 is more popular, and therefore one might expect it to have a higher chance of having been picked, I do think that the slot 6 argument is the stronger of that pair. Thinking more about it, though, why would scum!Dylan or scum!sudgy actually risk an unsafe fake claim at all when there was already a totally safe slot-1 claim available?
The main thing I dislike about my gut-scumread on Dylan is actually how many arguments that apply to one of the sudgy-Dylan pair apply to both of them. They're right next to each other in the draft order. They're right next to each other on lots of wagons. The main voting differences between them are just that Dylan votes for sudgy a bunch of times and sudgy doesn't really reciprocate the tunnel. It's not like one is sheeping the other, either -- sometimes sudgy is first to a wagon, and sometimes it's Dylan. I feel like actions that similar should imply a common motive and faction, and at this stage that means town. I'm not 100% convinced by any means, but I like that sort of occam's razor reasoning more than I like trying to unpick wifom.
If we really want to get down to it, I ought to vote O on the grounds that he's the only person (other than me) who could have known with certainty that his fake-claim was safe. I need more thinking there though, because I did just re-read him and fail to really understand Awaclus's tunnel...
Anyway, I feel like reasoning around claims and roles is what will help us more than reasoning around the wifom of who would have killed whom. More tomorrow, I hope... I'm not sure this post is as on-point as I want it to be because I'm sleepy.. I may be conflating the issue about how likely the given fake claims are to have been safe with the issue about how likely they are to be given as fake claims in the first place if they weren't known to be safe, and what the actual slots and roles could have been instead. G'ngiht!