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[Dylan32]

This is the claim order. There might have been a few discrepencies between what happened and this, but it was pretty close to this.

Draft order with slot and role claims, updated with flips:

#1 faust, 2-shot vig (slot 1) Claimed vig at #2678
#2 ?
#3 Jimmmmm, original Mason (slot 6)
#4 mcmc, Hammer Hero (slot 9)
#5 LL, Mafia Godfather-er (presumably slot 7)
#6 e, SK, 1-Shot Bus Driver (claims slot 13; definitely can't have been 6)
#7 sudgy, VT (went for slot 6)
#8 Dylan, VT (went for slot 13)
#9 Eevee, was VT, became Mason. (went for slot 6)
#10 Awaclus, VT
#11 iguana, Mafia Goon (went for slot 13)
#12 ashersky, Mafia Goon (claimed slot 4?).
#13 TWM, Hider (Slot 10)
#14 JR, VT
#15 PPS, restless sheeper (slot 2)
#16 ?
#17 Jake, Tracker (slot 12)
#18 Space, VT (went for slot 12)
#19 RR, VT (went for slot 13)
#20 Galz, Jailkeeper (slot 11)
#21 O, VT (went for slot 11)
#22 ?
#23 ?

Names missing from the list are Calamitas, gkreig, Cuzz and Andrew.

This is the order:

JaketheBaseballGod22
sudgy
pingpongsam
SpaceAnemone
Jimmmmm
Dylan32
2.71828......
ashersky
RoadRunner7671
iguanaiguana
LaLight
O
Awaclus

If this list contains people who already claimed and I missed it, I would like them to claim again.

Put these two things together for convenience.

[Dylan32]

Should have previewed, but whatever, you get the what's what of it.

[Dylan32]

So a break down of who's claims were safe assuming the order here is the order of the claim (with the obvious mcmc and twm claims well ahead of the mass claim considered).
MCO = mass claim order. 2nd person listed is the winner of the claimed slot target.

Space - Draft #18, slot 12, MCO 4. Jake: #17, slot 12 (flip proven), MCO 1. Completely safe.

Sudgy - #7, slot 6, MCO 2.  Jimmmmm: #3, slot 6, MCO 5. However, Eevee had already flipped Masonic Lover, so either slot 6 was safe or it was in rando slot. Calculated but possibly worthwhile risk.  Of note sudgy full claimed at the beginning of round 1.

O - #21, slot 11, MCO next to last. Galz, #20, slot 11, (wait, had you claimed before the mass claim, or did Awaclus just forget you?) too tired to go back and look.

Galz again - #20, slot 11 and won according to claim.

Dylan - #7, slot 13, MCO 6. Was unsafe until e admitted he was #6 in trying to claim survivor to explain the e/rr claim mistake well past the mass claim itself. Also, the only possible scenario where he didn't actually get 13 would be if Galz is lying about winning slot 11 since Jake claimed 13 and flipped tracker. This would mean that Galz was lying anyway. Since I didn't get it and no one else above me claimed going for 13, I'm assuming e told the truth there.

[Dylan32]

So a break down of who's claims were safe assuming the order here is the order of the claim (with the obvious mcmc and twm claims well ahead of the mass claim considered).
MCO = mass claim order. 2nd person listed is the winner of the claimed slot target.

Space - Draft #18, slot 12, MCO 4. Jake: #17, slot 12 (flip proven), MCO 1. Completely safe.

Sudgy - #7, slot 6, MCO 2.  Jimmmmm: #3, slot 6, MCO 5. However, Eevee had already flipped Masonic Lover, so either slot 6 was safe or it was in rando slot. Calculated but possibly worthwhile risk.  Of note sudgy full claimed at the beginning of round 1.

O - #21, slot 11, MCO next to last. Galz, #20, slot 11, (wait, had you claimed before the mass claim, or did Awaclus just forget you?) too tired to go back and look.

Galz again - #20, slot 11 and won according to claim.

Dylan - #7, slot 13, MCO 6. Was unsafe until e admitted he was #6 in trying to claim survivor to explain the e/rr claim mistake well past the mass claim itself. Also, the only possible scenario where he didn't actually get 13 would be if Galz is lying about winning slot 11 since Jake claimed 12 and flipped tracker. This would mean that Galz was lying anyway. Since I didn't get it and no one else above me claimed going for 13, I'm assuming e told the truth there.

edit: fixed typo

[O]

To one of your defense points:
1) My thinking is that given Awaclus, the ideal final 3 for scum would be you, Awaclus, and scum. Unless Awaclus turned around and was baiting scum by faking a scum read on you in order to get that exact group, it's a pretty safe bet Awaclus would go for you barring something big. So scum would have a pretty big incentive to not kill you two. As you said though, you 100% couldn't have him around. There's a pretty good reason why scum would want him around if you didn't get lynched.

2) You could just as easily help facilitate the lynch specifically to get the town cred for helping a lynch go through for the exact argument you seem to have had ready to bring up.

1. It's certainly a strategy, but it's definitely not some amazing, must go strategy. They would be putting all of their faith in Awaclus being consistent on that last day, and would sacrifice a potential lynch target by keeping Awaclus alive. At normal 1-2 Lylo scum have a 2/3s chance of winning, is that more or less than the odds of Awaclus voting for me over them? Not entirely sure. Maybe they think I'm an idiot and might vote Awaclus out of desperation at LYLO before Awaclus forces it? Doubtful.

2.  NoLynch increases the odds of a scum win about 10% (8/15 -> 5/8) ? using generic assumptions. If we give Galzria pseudo-IC status and assume he dies tonight, NoLynch increases the odds of scum win by exactly 10% (1/2 -> 3/5). So I guess it's theoretically a gamble I could make for townCred, but I'd be sacrificing a whole lot of odds for it.

None of this makes me necessarily some amazingly "likely town" person, but, as it is, neither are 3/4 of the rest of yall.

[O]

The obvious person in that sort of claiming position is O, since he claimed slot 11 a long time after Galz did, and is conveniently placed late in the draft order.

Technically correct but you're only looking at half the info we have. It appears (I have not personally confirmed past reading the current post) that Draft order #2 is unclaimed. It is low probability that draft order #2 did not win a PR, since that would require voting for Slot 1. Admittedly Slot 1 is a pretty desirable one but I'd still put it 20-80 that draft order #2 got a PR.

Everyone who did not claim draft order flipped vanilla town/scum. So I think with reasonably high probability we have one of two possibilities:

1. the remaining scum got draft #2 and lied about his position

2. the remaining scum got draft #5 or #11/#12 and lied about his position, and LaLight/Ashersky actually got draft position 2. I consider this pretty damn likely actually since I feel like LaLight/Ashersky should be pretty far up on the draft?

On average, the draft position seems likely to be high for our remaining scum. I came into M100 five years out of date. I think that Galz was roughly as out of date? and he infact appears just above me in the claimed draft order! I suggest that this, while somewhat convenient for my claim from an outside perspective, makes perfect sense and is a reasonable conclusion to guessing how draft order would turn out.

[Robz888]

Vote Count 8.2

O (1): Dylan32
Dylan32 (1): sudgy

Not Voting (3): O, Galzria, SpaceAnemone

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch. Day 8 ends Tuesday, July 11, at 11:00 AM Forum Time.

[SpaceAnemone]

Dylan, you've been a bit careless with your analysis of the claims -- sudgy's in particular, so I want to pick at that a bit...

You keep saying that sudgy's claim might have been safe because a mason had already flipped. Given that he claimed draft order 7, that means that unless someone in the first six places had picked mason, it was still totally unsafe to claim UB with a VT role, because he should have been expected to have a role if he'd picked it ahead of the next person. And given that we already knew that faust had taken first place, that means that sudgy had to hope that one of only five unclaimed players above him, rather that one of the 16 below him, had picked slot 6. That's significantly less likely than you're giving it credit for being.

I think the main risk with sudgy is exactly the same as the main risk with you, which is that one of you actually got draft order #2, but claimed Calamitas's draft order and slot bid, or maybe did a more comprehensive slot-bid swap-around with other scums. I think it seems exceedingly likely that whoever had draft order 7 tried for slot 6, and not much less likely that whoever had draft order 8 went for slot 13, though given that we know slot 13 is more popular, and therefore one might expect it to have a higher chance of having been picked, I do think that the slot 6 argument is the stronger of that pair. Thinking more about it, though, why would scum!Dylan or scum!sudgy actually risk an unsafe fake claim at all when there was already a totally safe slot-1 claim available?

The main thing I dislike about my gut-scumread on Dylan is actually how many arguments that apply to one of the sudgy-Dylan pair apply to both of them. They're right next to each other in the draft order. They're right next to each other on lots of wagons. The main voting differences between them are just that Dylan votes for sudgy a bunch of times and sudgy doesn't really reciprocate the tunnel. It's not like one is sheeping the other, either -- sometimes sudgy is first to a wagon, and sometimes it's Dylan. I feel like actions that similar should imply a common motive and faction, and at this stage that means town. I'm not 100% convinced by any means, but I like that sort of occam's razor reasoning more than I like trying to unpick wifom.

If we really want to get down to it, I ought to vote O on the grounds that he's the only person (other than me) who could have known with certainty that his fake-claim was safe. I need more thinking there though, because I did just re-read him and fail to really understand Awaclus's tunnel...

Anyway, I feel like reasoning around claims and roles is what will help us more than reasoning around the wifom of who would have killed whom. More tomorrow, I hope... I'm not sure this post is as on-point as I want it to be because I'm sleepy.. I may be conflating the issue about how likely the given fake claims are to have been safe with the issue about how likely they are to be given as fake claims in the first place if they weren't known to be safe, and what the actual slots and roles could have been instead. G'ngiht!

[O]

If we really want to get down to it, I ought to vote O on the grounds that he's the only person (other than me) who could have known with certainty that his fake-claim was safe. I need more thinking there though, because I did just re-read him and fail to really understand Awaclus's tunnel...

Anyway, I feel like reasoning around claims and roles is what will help us more than reasoning around the wifom of who would have killed whom. More tomorrow, I hope... I'm not sure this post is as on-point as I want it to be because I'm sleepy.. I may be conflating the issue about how likely the given fake claims are to have been safe with the issue about how likely they are to be given as fake claims in the first place if they weren't known to be safe, and what the actual slots and roles could have been instead. G'ngiht!

To try and push back against the claim analysis, I just had a realization

All the talk about "safe" claims also ignore  (I think) that we had a dead vanilla scum before the massclaim who could provides a free "safe" claim for the scum claiming

Calamitas was Vanilla scum. Any PR scum that wanted to hide as VT could simply claim Calamitas's draft role/slot knowing it wouldn't be counterclaimed.

Because of this, I'd appreciate it if you at least addressed my other argument, summarized below:

1. It is reasonable and likely to expect that I am very far down on the draft order given my prior knowledge of players here

1a. Throughout D1-D3 I made several comments that hinted at #1 before the massclaim

2. It is reasonable and likely that someone so far down the draft order would try to grab slot 11, the least desirable slot. In fact, we know this happened because  at least either me or Galz is telling the truth, and we both claimed low draft order and slot 11.

3. It is most probable the the remaining scum is a Godfatherer or Roleblocker, and those slots were desirable enough for it likely to be someone high on the draft order to get.

[Galzria]

I don't want to quote everyone here, but I think you all pretty much agreed with what I saw - and O got it exactly right:

Slot #2 hasn't been claimed. Unless you honestly and truly believe slot #2 went for slot 1 and failed, then slot #2 won a PR.

Where is it?

Calamitas died n1. Well before the mass claim. His spot and draft choice was 100% safe to claim as VT. Scum could've been the first to claim in the mass claim and they had a safe go-to.

Because of this all claims that have been made are "safe" from a scum perspective. So then the question becomes who reasonably could've drafted #2?

[Galzria]

Sorry, a little ambiguous in terminology.

I was speaking of draft #2, and the (un)likelihood of them going for slot #1 over a 100% guaranteed PR of their choice (Well, assuming draft #1 doesn't do anything weird).

[Dylan32]

If we really want to get down to it, I ought to vote O on the grounds that he's the only person (other than me) who could have known with certainty that his fake-claim was safe. I need more thinking there though, because I did just re-read him and fail to really understand Awaclus's tunnel...

Anyway, I feel like reasoning around claims and roles is what will help us more than reasoning around the wifom of who would have killed whom. More tomorrow, I hope... I'm not sure this post is as on-point as I want it to be because I'm sleepy.. I may be conflating the issue about how likely the given fake claims are to have been safe with the issue about how likely they are to be given as fake claims in the first place if they weren't known to be safe, and what the actual slots and roles could have been instead. G'ngiht!

To try and push back against the claim analysis, I just had a realization

All the talk about "safe" claims also ignore  (I think) that we had a dead vanilla scum before the massclaim who could provides a free "safe" claim for the scum claiming

Calamitas was Vanilla scum. Any PR scum that wanted to hide as VT could simply claim Calamitas's draft role/slot knowing it wouldn't be counterclaimed.

Because of this, I'd appreciate it if you at least addressed my other argument, summarized below:

1. It is reasonable and likely to expect that I am very far down on the draft order given my prior knowledge of players here

1a. Throughout D1-D3 I made several comments that hinted at #1 before the massclaim

2. It is reasonable and likely that someone so far down the draft order would try to grab slot 11, the least desirable slot. In fact, we know this happened because  at least either me or Galz is telling the truth, and we both claimed low draft order and slot 11.

3. It is most probable the the remaining scum is a Godfatherer or Roleblocker, and those slots were desirable enough for it likely to be someone high on the draft order to get.

So I actually think there might have been a town slip in there. How likely is scum to actually not remember what roles their (all dead and flipped) partners had?

unvote

[Dylan32]

Other option is to fake that. I don't really think that's likely though. If so, gg I guess.

[Dylan32]

Another option is that Calamitas was #2 but went for slot 1 hoping that #1 would go for hammer hero.

[Dylan32]

Sorry, didn't notice Galz's post that said the last thing I said already.

[Galzria]

Other option is to fake that. I don't really think that's likely though. If so, gg I guess.

I don't think it was a town slip, because that's really not hard to fake or just mess up.

But I do think O is town, because I don't think he drafted high enough to take RB or Strongman. And I -really - don't think he drafted #2, which is where I think our remaining scum placed.

[Dylan32]

Other option is to fake that. I don't really think that's likely though. If so, gg I guess.

I don't think it was a town slip, because that's really not hard to fake or just mess up.

But I do think O is town, because I don't think he drafted high enough to take RB or Strongman. And I -really - don't think he drafted #2, which is where I think our remaining scum placed.

So if we were to judge who left would be the most likely to end up at #2, I would probably have to say Space I guess, assuming you (Galz) and O are telling the truth about not paying attention or going back to figure stuff out before bidding.  I don't know much about sudgy, but since I joined this past Fall, Space was already decently established and even modded the newbie game I was in (not my first game though). They are also very analytical and math oriented, so that's points against them.

[Dylan32]

Sorry, a little ambiguous in terminology.

I was speaking of draft #2, and the (un)likelihood of them going for slot #1 over a 100% guaranteed PR of their choice (Well, assuming draft #1 doesn't do anything weird).

I really don't think it is quite as unlikely as you would think, depending on how much the scum team thought HH would be a top target for town. It might be interesting to go back and see what our confirmed scums' attitudes were towards HH.

[O]

I think Space is most likely to be #2 of us, but AFAIK not that likely. I think it's quite likely they switched up some of the draft positions the VT scum got.

[Dylan32]

I think Space is most likely to be #2 of us, but AFAIK not that likely. I think it's quite likely they switched up some of the draft positions the VT scum got.

What do you mean switched up draft positions? You mean claimed one from a vt scum?

[O]

Nevermind, mind tricked myself. They could swap with LaLight too (so between any members) because LaLight claimed VT, no reason to say "VT scum".

[O]

I think Space is most likely to be #2 of us, but AFAIK not that likely. I think it's quite likely they switched up some of the draft positions the VT scum got.

What do you mean switched up draft positions? You mean claimed one from a vt scum?

I mean LaLight claims draft position 5 or W/E and Iguana claims 11 or W/E but really LaLight had 11 and Iguana had 5. Not a likely example but something along those lines.

[Dylan32]

So wait a second. Scum wouldn't even have to claim Calamitas's spot in the order unless they were above him to begin with. If x < Calamitas, they just stick with their own slot but claim his target since they would have had time to talk and confirm he didn't get it earlier than they could have. 2 of the four empty slots are right at the bottom, and I doubt scum claimed higher than what they actually were.

PPE 1

[Dylan32]

I think Space is most likely to be #2 of us, but AFAIK not that likely. I think it's quite likely they switched up some of the draft positions the VT scum got.

What do you mean switched up draft positions? You mean claimed one from a vt scum?

I mean LaLight claims draft position 5 or W/E and Iguana claims 11 or W/E but really LaLight had 11 and Iguana had 5. Not a likely example but something along those lines.

Why would they do that though? I'm really not tracking why that would be good. (likely because it is post midnight and I'm still up)

[Dylan32]

Also, I know it is likely that scum would go for roleblocker early in the draft. But I'm not sure that we can even assume they had to because no other townie (that was alive to claim at the mass claim) went for slot 3, so scum might have got lucky and hit it with a late draft pick.