I would bet even odds that LaLight was draft slot 2. Though Godfather isn't so amazing that it's worth a draft order 2 vote, so idk. But LaLight seems like an easy pick for being high on the draft order having read all the games?
Yeah, I don't think Godfatherer is the thing that the highest-placed scum goes for, but of course the scums would need to pick roles that fit with their own style of play, too. Why move LL down the draft order from #2, but then put him at #5, though? His VT claim at draft position 5 was actually less believable than it would have been at draft position 2, and his claim stuck out enough that I used it as evidence towards his lynch.
The thing about position 2 is that the person could have been pretty wrong or out of date on knowing everything about all the current players and still have scored up there by getting the M19 part correct.. that rockets him almost to the top of the pack on its own.
I agree with you that thinking about how scum might have spread their choices is probably a good idea. Whichever person is the actual last scum (except for Galz), we know that an actual scum (be it the person in question, or possibly Calamitas) is very likely to have their exact draft position, and in the case of sudgy and Dylan, probably has their exact slot bid as well, since neither seemed safe to lie about at the time the claiming exercise happened.
So, with that reasoning:
In the case of scum!sudgy, that would mean that even if he was draft #2, there was probably a scum at draft #7 who bid for slot 6 and ended up a goon. What were they after there in slot 6? Is 1-shot bus driver such a hot scum power that it's the one to go for after RB and Godfatherer? Does the third-ranked scum go for bus driver? Or is the idea to knock town-useful roles out of their slot to reduce the chance of things like UB or Masons being in the game?
In the case of scum!Dylan, we think there was a scum at draft position 8 who went for slot 13 and ended up a goon. That seems a bit more plausible. But I feel like Dylan is by far the least likely of you to have picked M19. So with a low likelihood we'd have Dylan-draft2-RB, LL-draft5-godfatherer, Calamitas/ash/iguana-draft8-slot13 and so on down. And with a higher likelihood, LL would have been the top scum draft and Dylan the second-top... so does the second-top one go for slot 13?
In the case of scum!O, we only have his word that he wasn't aware of what was going on around M19, but it still seems unlikely that he'd rank up there, and faust seemed to accept that reasoning earlier in the game. So again, we have a low-likelihood of him being an RB at draft2, or we accept that scum thought that their lowest-placed member should go for RB, or we assume that they mixed up their claims a lot, so say ash was actually at #20.. that would pay off now, having O left as a really low number in the draft, but what motivation was there at the time of the claim exercise for them to renumber themselves that way? They wouldn't have known that O was going outlast the rest. Same argument is actually applicable to any of these.
Galz is the complicated case, because I don't see any way that he didn't go for slot 11 even if he was at draft2, because somebody above O in the order needs to have taken a PR from that slot.
PPE 0, but more thinking: maybe taking slot 13 out high up in the ordering is good not for what roles it offers, but for the chance of knocking roles out of the game. If LL had Godfatherer, maybe the most efficient way to ensure that the town-useful roles from that slot and others (like Tracker and BP) aren't there is for scum to try to mop up the random slots at the end...
I'm not sure these musings are really helping narrow down the choices a lot :-(