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[sudgy]

I was wondering, in my rereads, I've seen lots of people saying they had a scumread on faust (O in particular).  Do any of you still have that scumread?

[O]

i'd put him in the upper half of scumreads, but iguana flipping scum made me less confident.

[sudgy]

Here's my post summarizing all claims.  I've found this useful.  I'll post my case on faust tomorrow.  I summarize everything at the end.

Day 1:

I didn't even look this one over.  However, PPS does basically claim restless sheeper in #1446 by sheeping Galzria.

Day 2:

Faust, in #1503 faust says he has something he "may or may not want to talk about."

Then, in #1509, TWM says Awaclus is likely town.

In #1539, O has a "softclaim" about Cuzz being town.  This is interesting since he's since claimed VT.  However, this is O, so it's probably nothing.  He does it again in #1550, with RR.

So, this isn't a claim, but in #1801 e says that RR is town.  I'm not certain, but he could have used his bus driver on Awaclus and RR and knows that TWM had some type of investigative role.  Just a thought.

Mcmc starts talking about claiming in #1855, with the full claim coming in #1863.

TWM claims in #1890, and he hid behind Awaclus.

PPS actually claims in #2043.

Galzria softclaims that he has a town utility in #2119.

PPS ends Day 2 sheeping TWM.

Day 3:

Galzria claims Jailkeeper in #2669, with draft position 20 and taking slot 11.  Says that N1 he jailed faust, and N2 he jailed ash.

Faust claims 2-shot vig soon after in #2678, with draft position 1.

I forgot to mention that TWM didn't hide.

Alright, massclaim time.  I'll compile everything at the end of this post though so I'll put all of this there.

Faust says in #2923 that he shot sudgy N1.

Ash says he has "a counterclaim thing of sorts" in #3041.

e claims all his stuff and gets lynched.

PPS dies sheeping TWM, who also died.

Day 4:

Ash fully claims in #3409.

Galzria claims to have jailed one of ash, mcmc, or his highest scumread in #3418, then claims to have jailed ash in #3472.

Nothing Day 5.

Day 6:

Galzria claims to have jailed Awaclus.



Final list of claims and actions (in alphabetical order):

2.71828.....: #6, 1-Shot Bus-Driver SK (slot 13). [First claimed #19, VT (went for slot 13), then to #6, Convert SK to Survivor (slot 13, other roles were Bus Driver and Alignment Cop)].
Andrew: #?, VT (unknown slot).
ash: #?, Mafia Goon (unknown slot). [First claimed #12, Role Cop (slot 4).  Investigated faust N1 and N2, and I think N3, with no result.]
Awaclus: #10, VT
Calamitas: #?, Mafia goon (unknown slot).
Cuzz: #?, VT (unknown slot).
Dylan: #8, VT (went for slot 13).
Eevee: #9, VT->Masonic Lover (went for slot 6).
faust: #1, 2-Shot Vig (slot 1).  Shot sudgy N1 (but failed, presumably due to Galzria), shot Cuzz N2, shot PPS N3.
Galzria: #20, Jailkeeper (slot 11).  Jailed faust N1, jailed ash N2, jailed ash N3, jailed N4, jailed Awaclus N5.
gkrieg: #?, VT (unknown slot).
iguana: #?, Mafia Goon (unknown slot). [First claimed #11, VT (went for slot 13).]
Jake: #17, Tracker (slot 12, other role was 1-Shot Commuter).  Tracked gkrieg N1 (no result), tracked ash N2 and N3 (no result both times, presumably due to Galzria).
Jimmmmm: #3, Masonic Lover (slot 6).
J-Reggie: #14, VT (unknown slot).
LaLight: #5, VT (went for slot 1).
Mcmc: #? Hammer Hero (slot 9). Got first two hammers and presumably did death immunity.
O: #21, VT
PPS: #15, Restless Sheeper (slot 2).
RR: #19, VT (went slot 13).
Space: #18, VT (went for slot 12).
sudgy: #7, VT (went for slot 6).
TWM: #? Hider (slot 10). hid behind Awaclus N1, hid behind nobody N2, probably hid behind iguana (small chance of Space or someone else) N3.

[Awaclus]

2.71828.....: #6, 1-Shot Bus-Driver SK (slot 13). [First claimed #19, VT (went for slot 13), then to #6, Convert SK to Survivor (slot 13, other roles were Bus Driver and Alignment Cop)].
Andrew: #?, VT (unknown slot).
ash: #?, Mafia Goon (unknown slot). [First claimed #12, Role Cop (slot 4).  Investigated faust N1 and N2, and I think N3, with no result.]
Awaclus: #10, VT
Calamitas: #?, Mafia goon (unknown slot).
Cuzz: #?, VT (unknown slot).
Dylan: #8, VT (went for slot 13).
Eevee: #9, VT->Masonic Lover (went for slot 6).
faust: #1, 2-Shot Vig (slot 1).  Shot sudgy N1 (but failed, presumably due to Galzria), shot Cuzz N2, shot PPS N3.
Galzria: #20, Jailkeeper (slot 11).  Jailed faust N1, jailed ash N2, jailed ash N3, jailed N4, jailed Awaclus N5.
gkrieg: #?, VT (unknown slot).
iguana: #?, Mafia Goon (unknown slot). [First claimed #11, VT (went for slot 13).]
Jake: #17, Tracker (slot 12, other role was 1-Shot Commuter).  Tracked gkrieg N1 (no result), tracked ash N2 and N3 (no result both times, presumably due to Galzria).
Jimmmmm: #3, Masonic Lover (slot 6).
J-Reggie: #14, VT (unknown slot).
LaLight: #5, VT (went for slot 1).
Mcmc: #? Hammer Hero (slot 9). Got first two hammers and presumably did death immunity.
O: #21, VT
PPS: #15, Restless Sheeper (slot 2).
RR: #19, VT (went slot 13).
Space: #18, VT (went for slot 12).
sudgy: #7, VT (went for slot 6).
TWM: #? Hider (slot 10). hid behind Awaclus N1, hid behind nobody N2, probably hid behind iguana (small chance of Space or someone else) N3.

I think it's pretty safe to color me green in a list like this.

[faust]

I think it's pretty safe to color me green in a list like this.

Oh, but then sudgy's attempt to frame you would be pointless:

So, this isn't a claim, but in #1801 e says that RR is town.  I'm not certain, but he could have used his bus driver on Awaclus and RR and knows that TWM had some type of investigative role.  Just a thought.

[Galzria]

A little different look at vote analysis - this has nothing to do with wagons, but is simply a history of how votes were cast:

O:
Day 1: Galzria (#158), LaLight (#270), RR (#358), Awaclus (#676/#678), LaLight (#1221), Awaclus (#1345)
Day 2: Faust (#1539), Space (#1600), Faust (#1931), Ashersky (#2151), Andrew (#2286), Faust (#2445), Andrew (#2477)
Day 3: Faust (#2664), Ashersky (#2721)
Day 4: Ashersky (#3412)
Day 5: Space (#3612), Faust (#3684), Space (#3691)
Day 6: Space (#3861)

Thoughts: Wow. With the exception of the two Andrew votes (#2286 & #2477), every vote you've cast since the game began has either been for now-confirmed-dead scum (Ash, #2151, #2721, #3412), or still alive players. And the two Andrew votes were clearly sarcasticly cast at the whim of MCMC d2 ("largest wagon that our lord and savior approves of" & "baaaaaa baaaaaaa") and not actually your own reads.

I actually don't know what to make of this. My gut says scummy, but my brain just doesn't understand how you could have at no point, voted for now-confirmed-dead town given how many of them there are. Like... obviously you have cast SOME votes against town this game as [Awaclus, Faust, Space, Galzria, LaLight, RR] can't all be scum - but somehow through d6 your demonstrative vote history (minus Andrew, which again I don't count as they were not true votes based on your reads) has remained 100% immaculate and pristine.

Blergh. So weird.

----------

Gonna try to do LL here next here before I need to go do work stuffs for the rest of the day. I'll actually be on later tonight though (planned on it last night but my old staff wanted to go out drinking and celebrating so I did that instead).

[Dylan32]

Yo dude, you want to put some meat on those opinions? Like, that was literally the safest pool and the least info you could have possibly given.

Safest pool? I think it's the best pool, I'm not really worried about what people think about it. That's just what I think.

That's fair.  I was just hoping you'd come in and prove you were town, and instead you went along with the conclusion basically everyone else has come to without providing any of your reasoning for it.  I still want you to explain some of the why's and what's of your reread that got you to that pool.

In sudgy's summary, Awaclus and O don't have which slot they bid for filled in. Did you guys claim that, or was it just missed?

PPE 1

[Galzria]

Same as for O, but this time for LaLight:

LaLight:
Day 1: Space (#142), PPS (#146), MCMC (#174), Ashersky (#243), MCMC (#731), Awaclus (#884), MCMC (#976), JReggie (#1155)
Day 2: RR (#2015), Andrew (#2090)
Day 3: Galzria (#2692), Jimmmm (#2892), 2.7 (#3023), Ashersky (#3295), 2.7 (#3321)
Day 4: Sudgy (#3390), Ashersky (#3397)
Day 5: Space (#3646)
Day 6: O (#3820), Dylan (#3864)

Thoughts: Well, I'll admit this voting pattern LOOKS a lot more natural to me than O's does.

I'm interested in looking at pair narratives as I go through these (although they'll likely be in a different set of posts) - but for example, if I were to look at the pair [O, LL] as the last two scum you would see that O only voted once for LL back early on d1, and then only ever bussed Ash afterwards. He never voted Calamatis or Iguana. LL would have voted Ashersky early, and would be pushing an O bus now - but also never voted for Calamatis or Iguana ((Note the Calamatis thing is weak for all pairs as he pretty much didn't play d1 and was dead that night)). Anyway - that's all for another set of posts.

The biggest takeaway I have from LaLight that makes me gut read him as townier than scummier is his play at the end of d3 with 2.7. He was online, he was active, and while he facilitated the L-1 vote that allowed 2.7 to steal the hammer from MCMC, it was at mcmc's request that he cast it - he could have (and as scum would have wanted) to try and steal the hammer himself. Making himself known and voting with/when mcmc when instructed gives him town points in my book. His response also reads townie - but I'll admit both scum and town could react that way.

[Galzria]

I'll do Space and faust tonight.

Can somebody do me a favor (if it hasn't been done - I may have missed it) and run through and do this for Ashersky and Iguana (I'm pretty sure Calamatis never even cast a vote)? I want to see the reciprocal on vote histories from a confirmed scum PoV.

Thanks!

[O]

A little different look at vote analysis - this has nothing to do with wagons, but is simply a history of how votes were cast:

O:
Day 1: Galzria (#158), LaLight (#270), RR (#358), Awaclus (#676/#678), LaLight (#1221), Awaclus (#1345)
Day 2: Faust (#1539), Space (#1600), Faust (#1931), Ashersky (#2151), Andrew (#2286), Faust (#2445), Andrew (#2477)
Day 3: Faust (#2664), Ashersky (#2721)
Day 4: Ashersky (#3412)
Day 5: Space (#3612), Faust (#3684), Space (#3691)
Day 6: Space (#3861)

Thoughts: Wow. With the exception of the two Andrew votes (#2286 & #2477), every vote you've cast since the game began has either been for now-confirmed-dead scum (Ash, #2151, #2721, #3412), or still alive players. And the two Andrew votes were clearly sarcasticly cast at the whim of MCMC d2 ("largest wagon that our lord and savior approves of" & "baaaaaa baaaaaaa") and not actually your own reads.

I actually don't know what to make of this. My gut says scummy, but my brain just doesn't understand how you could have at no point, voted for now-confirmed-dead town given how many of them there are. Like... obviously you have cast SOME votes against town this game as [Awaclus, Faust, Space, Galzria, LaLight, RR] can't all be scum - but somehow through d6 your demonstrative vote history (minus Andrew, which again I don't count as they were not true votes based on your reads) has remained 100% immaculate and pristine.

Blergh. So weird.

----------

Gonna try to do LL here next here before I need to go do work stuffs for the rest of the day. I'll actually be on later tonight though (planned on it last night but my old staff wanted to go out drinking and celebrating so I did that instead).

Small points:

1. "Sarcastic" is a weird phrase for my D2 votes. It was more like "I really think Cuzz is town and I'll definitely sheep MCMC over lynching cuzz". But I agree I didn't scumread Andrew. 

It is weird, but as you hinted at the more correct phrasing is "the people O voted for are still alive for some reason" than "O hasn't voted for town members". Because the only confirmed scum I've voted for is Ashersky (though I was definitely willing to vote e, it just wasn't necessary)... and it's a bit odd when the sample size is 2 to discard the Andrew vote..

I find this interesting because I've been voting Faust too many times with respect to how scummy I've found him throughout the day. Though I guess some of those were kinda just prods.

[Awaclus]

Yo dude, you want to put some meat on those opinions? Like, that was literally the safest pool and the least info you could have possibly given.

Safest pool? I think it's the best pool, I'm not really worried about what people think about it. That's just what I think.

That's fair.  I was just hoping you'd come in and prove you were town, and instead you went along with the conclusion basically everyone else has come to without providing any of your reasoning for it.  I still want you to explain some of the why's and what's of your reread that got you to that pool.

In sudgy's summary, Awaclus and O don't have which slot they bid for filled in. Did you guys claim that, or was it just missed?

PPE 1

I don't remember if I claimed that without checking, but I probably did. I bid for IC fwiw.

[SpaceAnemone]

I'll do Space and faust tonight.

Can somebody do me a favor (if it hasn't been done - I may have missed it) and run through and do this for Ashersky and Iguana (I'm pretty sure Calamatis never even cast a vote)? I want to see the reciprocal on vote histories from a confirmed scum PoV.

Thanks!

That's a neat format :-)

I should be able to tweak my code to give me a forum-printable vote history for everyone with very little work... just give me a few mins!

[SpaceAnemone]

Here's all the game voting history that I've auto-captured, put into the person-wise format suggested by Galz (though mine also counts unvotes as "Not Voting" because it was easier just to leave that behaviour in than to take it out). Please let me know if you find any inaccuracies!

Voting history for JR
Day 1: PPS (#146), TWM (#337), Galz (#1296)


Voting history for Galz
Day 1: JR (#571), Not Voting (#1140), LL (#1207)
Day 2: Dylan (#1755), Andrew (#2557), Not Voting (#2568)
Day 3: ash (#2794), Not Voting (#3085), e (#3119)
Day 4: Not Voting (#3555)
Day 6: sudgy (#3783)


Voting history for gkrieg
Day 1: PPS (#206), mcmc (#489), JR (#1015)


Voting history for TWM
Day 1: PPS (#235), LL (#272), mcmc (#316), sudgy (#570), mcmc (#644), Awaclus (#692), mcmc (#782), JR (#886), Not Voting (#1052), Awaclus (#1343), JR (#1396)
Day 2: Jimmmmm (#1534), sudgy (#1703), Not Voting (#2021), sudgy (#2241), e (#2385), Not Voting (#2407)
Day 3: e (#2620), TWM (#2655), Not Voting (#2658), e (#2853), sudgy (#2932), e (#3014), ash (#3233), Not Voting (#3243), ash (#3269), e (#3272)


Voting history for Calamitas


Voting history for Eevee
Day 1: Cuzz (#245), Andrew (#849), JR (#902), Not Voting (#1018), Andrew (#1019), sudgy (#1120), LL (#1219), Not Voting (#1274), Awaclus (#1390)
Day 2: Space (#1650), Andrew (#2125)


Voting history for faust
Day 1: JR (#513), sudgy (#548), Galz (#1386)
Day 2: Cuzz (#1507)
Day 3: Galz (#2678), Jimmmmm (#2887), sudgy (#2911), e (#3116), ash (#3256)
Day 4: ash (#3374), ash (#3426)
Day 5: iguana (#3606)
Day 6: sudgy (#3797), Not Voting (#3802), LL (#3819)


Voting history for LL
Day 1: Space (#142), mcmc (#174), ash (#243), mcmc (#731), Awaclus (#884), mcmc (#976), JR (#1155)
Day 2: Space (#1583), RR (#2015), Andrew (#2090)
Day 3: Galz (#2692), Not Voting (#2728), Jimmmmm (#2892), e (#3023), ash (#3295), e (#3321)
Day 4: sudgy (#3390), ash (#3397)
Day 5: Space (#3646)
Day 6: O (#3820), Dylan (#3864)


Voting history for Awaclus
Day 1: e (#461), O (#698)
Day 2: O (#1545)
Day 5: O (#3682), iguana (#3768)
Day 6: sudgy (#3870)


Voting history for Space
Day 1: LL (#144), mcmc (#974), JR (#1382)
Day 2: Cuzz (#2432)
Day 3: e (#3315)
Day 4: iguana (#3475), ash (#3549)
Day 5: iguana (#3617)
Day 6: LL (#3860)


Voting history for e
Day 1: LL (#171), mcmc (#173), TWM (#706), JR (#876)
Day 2: Andrew (#1636), Not Voting (#2451)
Day 3: iguana (#2624), ash (#2770), RR (#3231), ash (#3271), e (#3276), ash (#3277), e (#3322)


Voting history for PPS
Day 1: Andrew (#808), LL (#1211)
Day 2: Andrew (#1557), Andrew (#1956), Cuzz (#2406), Andrew (#2482)
Day 3: Jimmmmm (#2890), Not Voting (#2902), e (#3118)


Voting history for Dylan
Day 1: Jake (#292), TWM (#436), JR (#883)
Day 2: Space (#1765), sudgy (#2054), Andrew (#2303), Not Voting (#2305), sudgy (#2359), Cuzz (#2422)
Day 3: sudgy (#2915)
Day 5: iguana (#3747)
Day 6: sudgy (#3793)


Voting history for RR
Day 1: mcmc (#1298)
Day 2: Andrew (#2478), Not Voting (#2486), Andrew (#2522), Not Voting (#2528)
Day 3: iguana (#2637), Jimmmmm (#2894), Not Voting (#2939), e (#3005)
Day 5: iguana (#3740)


Voting history for iguana
Day 1: Galz (#297), ash (#429), JR (#991), Galz (#1253), JR (#1319)
Day 2: Galz (#1773), Not Voting (#2078), Cuzz (#2446), Andrew (#2484)
Day 4: Space (#3434), ash (#3569)
Day 5: Space (#3620), iguana (#3773)


Voting history for Jimmmmm
Day 2: mcmc (#1520), Not Voting (#2047), Andrew (#2537), Not Voting (#2566)
Day 3: e (#3307), Not Voting (#3311), e (#3319), Not Voting (#3325)


Voting history for O
Day 1: Not Voting (#260), RR (#358), Awaclus (#678), LL (#1221), Not Voting (#1256), Awaclus (#1345)
Day 2: faust (#1539), Space (#1600), faust (#1931), ash (#2151), Andrew (#2286), faust (#2445), Andrew (#2477), Not Voting (#2567)
Day 3: faust (#2664), Not Voting (#2668), ash (#2721)
Day 4: ash (#3412), Not Voting (#3473)
Day 5: Space (#3612), faust (#3684), Space (#3691)
Day 6: Space (#3861)


Voting history for Andrew
Day 1: e (#186), gkrieg (#1035)
Day 2: Cuzz (#1554), Not Voting (#1569), Cuzz (#1575), Dylan (#2295), Cuzz (#2427)


Voting history for Cuzz
Day 1: mcmc (#163), O (#182), O (#187), O (#196), Not Voting (#214), gkrieg (#220), ash (#231), RR (#362), iguana (#641), RR (#1070)
Day 2: Andrew (#1555), ash (#2187), Andrew (#2299), Not Voting (#2357), Space (#2419), iguana (#2501), Andrew (#2547)


Voting history for ash
Day 1: Galz (#157), TWM (#343)
Day 4: faust (#3409), ash (#3591)


Voting history for Jake
Day 1: LL (#239), JR (#332), mcmc (#741), JR (#1168)
Day 2: mcmc (#1514), Not Voting (#1707), Dylan (#2265), Cuzz (#2454), Andrew (#2483)
Day 3: Jimmmmm (#2893), RR (#3066), ash (#3266)
Day 4: LL (#3405), ash (#3445)


Voting history for mcmc
Day 1: Galz (#160), gkrieg (#241), Not Voting (#311), TWM (#370), O (#640), TWM (#713), Not Voting (#1294), JR (#1400)
Day 2: Andrew (#2558), Not Voting (#2569)
Day 3: e (#3323)


Voting history for sudgy
Day 1: TWM (#508), JR (#979), TWM (#1055), JR (#1186)
Day 2: TWM (#1584), Not Voting (#1950), Andrew (#2287), Cuzz (#2405)
Day 3: ash (#2795), e (#3244)
Day 4: ash (#3441)
Day 5: Space (#3765)

[Roadrunner7671]

But Space...what do all the numbers mean?

[sudgy]

But Space...what do all the numbers mean?

Post numbers.

[sudgy]

Faust, we've played before, right?  Don't you remember that everybody always thinks I'm scummy and I always get mislynched?

[sudgy]

Unfortunately, some things that work out quite mysteriously in timing make me think the LaLight bit of ash's speech may have been genuine.

I was just wondering, can you say what this is?

[sudgy]

Also, we're getting really close to deadline.  Let's play more, people!

[sudgy]

Alright, here's my faust case.  Day 1 isn't too strong, but it gets stronger and stronger as it goes on.

Day 1:

faust, iguana, and ash all mentioned each other a lot.  Most of them weren't even partner tells, but it just seems unnatural how many times they mention each other.  Here's a list of posts: #346, #490, #498, #524, #525, #545, #549, #914, #1093, #1095, #1129 (this one is particularly pointless), #1234 (this one too).

People off today's lynch menu so far:
TWM
LaLight
RR
iguana

Will try to keep this list updated through D1. I probably won't bother to take anyone off given the size of this game.

Iguana is on faust's townreads early on.  And this is his reason:

That was meant to be why are they there?

I feel it. There's no hard reasoning, but we only have 7 days and these people came out as the most townie. Plus iguana, who's just there because I like him.

He doesn't even say iguana's towny.  This whole thing feels superficial to me.

I think I want to take ash out of the lynch pool too. Well, put this as onging consideration.

Soon afterwards, he takes ash out.  Or maybe not.  Oh crap I'm saying my scumpartners are towny too much, I can't just put ash on there...

Later though, he does have both iguana and ash on his lynch pool removals:

Update on lynch pool removals:

RR
LaLight
TWM
iguana
O
mcmc
Andrew
ash

Scums are, in no particular order:

sudgy
J Reggie
pps
Dylan
Eevee

Interestingly, his scums are confirmed town or still alive.  I've noticed this in later days too, so I'll probably mention it more later.

He ends the day going after mcmc hardcore for hammering, saying he was the scum hammer hero.  Scumread on confirmed town.


Then, in the night, the scum warned each other not to mention each other so much, and got faust to switch his fake read on mcmc.


Day 2:

Hi! I'm still alive.

Calamitas looks like an SK shot? It's definitely more likely that there is one now. Or Werewolves I suppose.

There is something I may or may not want to talk about.

I thought you had thought mcmc was scum hammer hero?  That sounds like a very likely explanation for another kill, given your stance at the end of D1.  Maybe you knew mcmc wasn't scum so you actually did realize this means there's an SK?

Also I think mcmc is town.

Very quick turnaround.

wow, the night was quite cool. But I really do wonder what stays behing both kills, they are quite weird

Why do you think the gkrieg kill is weird? It seems pretty standard to me.

Not that much of evidence, but mafia wouldn't think the kill is weird.

I'm not a fan of the way Eevee abandoned the J Reggie wagon. Scum would definitely want the Reggie wagon to die after the claim.

Another scumread on confirmed town.  And, I forgot to get the quote, but he did it with Cuzz too at some point.

Admittedly I kinda want this plan to not work because I don't want this game to be broken.

This is a very scummy reaction to the plan.

The leading wagons are both utter nonsense.

Here's a list of people we should lynch:

Cuzz
Cuzz
Cuzz
sudgy
Eevee
pps

Confirmed town, confirmed town to me, confirmed town, and confirmed town.  Hmmm...

...
This what Town PR, non RMM, PPS looks like. Plus I've been town for like 8 games in a row, it's starting to affect me in a way I don't play like scum to protect my scum game.

Hmm, I forgot about your sheeper stuff. That probably means we should not lynch you.

(Says the guy who killed PPS later on)

[Cuzz case]

Case on confirmed town.


Day 3:

Here's a random idea we should be cautious of: If faust is scum, he could have shot Cuzz with his normal shot and saved his vig shot.  There's still a chance that scum!faust still has his shot left, which could be devestating for us.

So, day 3 actually isn't too bad for faust.  However, there is this:

I have a counterclaim thing of sorts, if folks want to kill the massclaim now.  Plenty of info already.

What do you mean? You can counterclaim someone? I suppose that's good.

To me, this feels like "Hey scumbuddy, you have a plan?  I'm interested in what you're going to say..."  Might be confirmation bias at this point, but it still just feels wrong.

Yes you claim. YOu're not going to weasel yourself out of the massclaim. Vote: ashersky

You are the last (or second-to-last) person who I will listen to, given what I know.

Ash has a plan.  Ultimate bussing.  Ashersky tries to get lynched with a 1v1 with faust, which gives faust tons of townpoints.  Scum knows that TWM might hide behind iguana, so scum will have to bus him at some point anyway, so faust decides to bus iguana too.  Faust can then coast his way to victory, possibly using his extra vig shot to get the win before lylo.

Day 4:

I'm looking forward to ashersky's solid evidence about Werewolves 

Vote: ashersky

The plan begins.

Also, I think another thing is that they decided to try to pound faust's towniness on us by repeatedly saying, "How in the world could faust not be the vig?"

...Faust joined him, faked Vig.

And here ashersky starts the ball rolling by claiming that faust is not the vig.

N1 AND N2 I investigated faust.  I received No Result both times.  After the way D2 progressed, it became clear to me that he won his claimed slot but bid on investigation immune.  Given his propensity for being everyone's favorite night target -- I copped him, after all -- this makes perfect sense.

This is bullshit. You can read the setup discussion thread for this game. I implicitly agreed with you that mafia should take 2-shot vig over Investigation Immune.

Also I'm curious how you explain the deaths tonight if I'm no vig. (Spoilers: I shot PPS)

And here's faust, right on cue.

The fact that faust has not even considered that fact means he's not really the Vig.

And here's ash, doing it again.

I am confused, ash - am I or am I not the vig?

And what on earth were you thinking with the Werewolf thing?

These are the questions you don't have answers to.

Hey everybody, think of what's logical: I'm the vig!

I will just point out, specifically, the questions left unanswered:

- How are there 3 deaths tonight if I am no vig?
...

And again.

No third death can happen without me being the vig 

...And again.

Rereading iguana:

...

Some scummy things, but mostly I just don't find any solid evidence that would put iguana in the town camp.

Now he's preparing fo the other bus.

Well I am a town, so obviously it sucks that anyone would reread and find me scummy.  It seems like the case against me is mainly that I haven't committed really hard to playing and well I don't regret that at all - It afforded me the luxury to have a life outside this game.

As for Faust / Ash, I think they are both scum. The whole thing stinks of a gambit to me. And again probably one of Galz or Jake is on the team too.

Iguana knows he's dead so might as well try to get as much distance as possible from his scumpartners.

Not to mention that Space/iguana has no chance of lynching a town PR at all, and a decent chance of lynching a scum PR. Lynching me has zero chance of lynching a scum PR (even if you believe I'm scum).

Faust keeps suggesting that he can't possibly be a scum vig.

I am around. I am trying to get psyched on how I am the De Fausto mislynch tomorrow but it is not easy.

Setting up his partner's bus tomorrow?

Trying to gather up all reads, town to scum.

Jimmmmm
Awaclus

Roadrunner
Dylan
Galzria (this hinges a bit on ashersky flipping scum)

Jake
Space

LaLight
O

sudgy
iguana

ashersky

Ah, the two scum to bus and then the person to set up for a mislynch.  The perfect scum reads.

Day 5:

I mean, we should lynch iguana today anyway. Vote: iguana

And now the plan continues.

Vote: Space

Seems Faust is scum too.

Still trying to distance each other even further.

We should break down the whole "faust is scum" theory as it doesn't make sense on any level.

- it has been pretty clear from D1 that I would eventually claim vig. Scum doesn't even want this because claiming it requires them to shoot "reasonable" targets, but what they actually want is to take out the towniest/strongest players. We know from the massclaim that scum very likely hid some of their PRs. Why wouldn't they do they same with their strongest one?

First, you shot targets that I think were fine for both town and scum.  You had already claimed before the massclaim so it was too late.

- I shot the first chance I got. This is clear. This is again not something scum wants. Later it becomes much clearer which players need taking out. Scum wouldn't shoot the vig in N1/N2.

Maybe you didn't shoot right away?  You could have just claimed to have tried to shoot when you didn't, and N2 there's explanations of NKs that don't involve you.

- with a team this size, I would always absolutely try to sacrifice someone early for towncred. I have previously gone on record stating that I like this sort of play, and I have won a game where I bussed a partner to death D1. I would never choose to only go after town.

Maybe you did it in the last few days?

- I would never agree to a play like the one ash did here as scum. ash likes to do weird claims just for the heck of it, but of course this would eventually break down. Had I been ash's partner, I would at the very least have pointed out the gaping holes and logical errors in his fakeclaim. For evidence on this, you can check the post-game discussion of that game where ash and gkrieg fakeclaimed Masons.

His whole claim was a plan to get lynched.  I think it's a perfectly valid scum plan.

- ash specifically tried to frame Galz/me as Werewolves prior to e's flip. I think he truly believed that to some extent, and that is why he claimed. Of course this cannot be if I'm actually his partner.

I think that's false.

- PPS was the single worst town death possible for scum. Literally any other townie dying would have been better for them. As scum, wouldn't I have tried my best to be able to shoot someone else? I had other scumreads that I could reasonably have shot.

Towncred, you knew TWM was dying and didn't want to worry about his PR, and maybe more reasons.

- On N2, Galz blocked ash, leading to one less death than expected. If the scum kill has been blocked at that stage, I could simply have claimed that I did not shoot, explaining away the missing kill and preventing ashersky going down.

Or you could not shoot, claimed to have shot, and kept the shot for later.




tl;dr:
- Faust had an unnaturally high number of interactions with ash and iguana
- Faust goes after mcmc as scum at the end of D1 then the next day shows that he hasn't even considered that as a possibility
- Faust consistently scumread mostly confirmed townies and never confirmed scum for the first couple days
- His vig choices were pretty bad (but are excusable)
- The whole faust/ash and faust/iguana situations can easily be scum gambits, and when you look at it with that light it makes everything make sense

Also, I mention in my long version that it is possible that faust still has a shot left.  That's important too.

I haven't proofread this, so sorry if there's any mistakes.

[LaLight]

This is an unusually convincing case. Given that I don't want to lynch sudgy, vote: faust

[LaLight]

I will be here up to 2ish hours to the deadline. It's 2am my time, depends on when I will go to sleep

[Roadrunner7671]

Yeah that case was unusually convincing. You've given me much to think about in our limited amount of time. Vote: Faust for now and I'll see what happens by morning.

[Galzria]

 We're still like... 39 hours to deadline though, yeah? Not crazy close.

[sudgy]

We're still like... 39 hours to deadline though, yeah? Not crazy close.

Well, tomorrow is my last day to be here, so I'm feeling a tiny bit rushed.  And I don't want the end of the day to be rushed.

[Galzria]

So I hadn't even actually considered Sudgy's take on NK's. That's certainly an interesting thought. To make sure I'm not missing it:

N1:
- Calamitas is shot by SK
- Gkrieg is shot by Mafia
- Vig kills nobody (He was jailed anyway, so even if he shot he couldn't kill)

N2:
- Cuzz is shot by Mafia
- Eevee is shot by SK
- Vig kills nobody (by choice this time)

N3:
- Mcmc is killed by Mafia
- PPS is killed by Vig
- TWM is killed by hiding

N4:
- Jake is killed by Mafia
- Vig kills nobody

N5:
- Jimmm is killed by Mafia
- Vig kills nobody

This would leave scum Vig with a shot still. Huh.

--------------------

My previously alluded to thoughts had to do with claims 2.7 might have made about who he might have shot.

N1: I think the results from are clear regardless of anybody's alignment.

N2: There was missing a kill, and faust claimed to have shot Cuzz. Some have speculated that if there's no Strongman, then I blocked Ash from shooting. I still feel that the kill pattern suggests Strongman, but when somebody mentioned that 2.7 had killed Eevee, I was definitely beginning to have doubt. However I've looked back and 2.7 never claimed that - so my initial belief that I blocked 2.7 from shooting Ashersky holds up.

But what crossed my mind while I was V/LA was another thought entirely. What if one of the Mafia/2.7 took a shot at mcmc that night? His claim had completely ruined their game, and while he insisted that he might choose to shoot in the future (instead of taking bullet-proof), he was adamant that he would be bullet-proof that night to collaborate all the claims. If he was stated to 100% take bullet-proof that night, what better time to sneak in a shot after taking the hammer? Yeah, it's a bunch of WIFOM - but I imagine scum were scrambling at that point and absolutely might have taken a shot at him just on the off chance it succeeded.

Anyway, that's neither here nor there when it comes to catching scum today. It just struck me while reading back while I was gone and since we still haven't figured out where the missing kill went I thought I would share it.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming. Gonna go look over Space and faust voting patterns.