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[faust]

Also, where is Jake?  This seems very uncharacteristic of him.

Not really.

[faust]

His first post with his reasoning for voting TWM seem like town reasons that are trying to try.  It isn't a good case (because really what could you breadcrumb in this setup), but it does look genuine.

Can you explain this post? I feel like I don't understand anything about this. What are town reasons that are trying to try as opposed to scum reasons that are trying to try?

[iguanaiguana]

I don't really have any great master theories, I dislike some of the bigger wagons because lynching a top poster doesn't seem productive,

I do not understand why people, if they are town, talk like this. It's so utterly nonspecific and unhelpful. If that sentence has any content whatsoever, it's left entirely unsaid for some incomprehensible reason:

Which wagons do you consider the bigger ones?
Of those, which ones do you dislike?
Who do you consider the top posters among them?

ppe: one

I thought the answers to all of these questions were implied and somewhat obvious.

1) The bigger wagons have been J Reggie (peaked at ~8) TWM (peaked at 5) and after that maybe McMcsalot. 3) All three of those players are in the top half of posters. 2) Eevee doesn't want to vote for any of those three.

Not sure if all of Cuzz's interrogations have been helpful...

[2.71828.....]

I don't get a scummy vibe from sudgy

[faust]

iguana has a weirdly strong urge to answer questions not directed at him.

[iguanaiguana]

There's a lot of unanswered questions!

[mcmcsalot]

People who are voting mcmc/Andrew: what's up with that?

I posted my reasoning at #974, but I'm not at all confident in any reads yet :-(

This really sounds like town!Space to me.

I agree

[gkrieg13]

His first post with his reasoning for voting TWM seem like town reasons that are trying to try.  It isn't a good case (because really what could you breadcrumb in this setup), but it does look genuine.

Can you explain this post? I feel like I don't understand anything about this. What are town reasons that are trying to try as opposed to scum reasons that are trying to try?

They seem like genuinely bad reasons from someone who hasn't thought about fakeclaiming, or about those aspects of the setup.

[mcmcsalot]

His first post with his reasoning for voting TWM seem like town reasons that are trying to try.  It isn't a good case (because really what could you breadcrumb in this setup), but it does look genuine.

I really don't see the case here.

Well seeing as I also agree completely with this I have to start town reading you more. I think sudgy has acted very much the way I expect sudgy to act with the amount of participation he has had.

[LaLight]

My townies are currently:

TWM
e
faust
ash (for now)
J Reggie

Added here are:

Awaclus
iguana
Space
Cuzz
galz

Why am i not here?

[SpaceAnemone]

I think eventually knowing the order will be very useful to town, as it might give us a little bit of insight.  We can also then see the likelihood of people's claims later on (like if someone at order #5 claims VT, that probably isn't all that likely).

The thing is, once people die, we can't confirm their place in the order, unless somehow Robz decides to give that to us with the flip, which I feel is super unlikely.

You're missing the big utility of this, though, I think... it's not so much that a fifth-placed person shouldn't be VT (they could just have gambled on a moderately-cool slot that they hoped the first four wouldn't take), but that once we know what order selections were made it, we can absolutely catch people out in a lie if they try to claim the wrong slot if we go for slot-claiming at a later point. Unlike bidding order, slots are something we get a pretty strong idea about from the flip, (though it's true that the final three slots mess with that a little, presumably for exactly this reason). I still think there's a lot of information to be had.

[gkrieg13]

But it also tells scum who is more likely to get a PR and who isn't very likely.

[J Reggie]

People should claim their bid number at least in twilight if not in L-1.

[Roadrunner7671]

People should claim their bid number at least in twilight if not in L-1.

I think they should claim it when they claim their role. Instead of claiming VT, claim VT who got to bid 6th. But sometimes people don't want to claim, and I'm not sure if they'll claim their number if that's the case.

[LaLight]

But it also tells scum who is more likely to get a PR and who isn't very likely.

Not really if it's not #1. My thought is that there useful, mediocre and pretty bad boxes. And I think every box has its contestants, like numbers 20-25 would fight for 12-11 etc.

[Galzria]

Alright. Catching back up now. Doesn't look like I missed a huge amount (yay)!

First - faust, I'll pull up some quotes on Cuzz in a few here. Like I said, much of it isn't alignment indicative - but then I don't think much of what anybody has said at all over the past 1000+ posts is really alignment indicative (if it were, catching scum would be easy). There's just a number of things in the way he thinks and posts that I find more townie than scummy - and moreso with him than anybody else so far.

Second - The J Reggie wagon. There are 3 possible alignments for Reggie. Town, Mafia, SK (for this purpose SK = Wolf = Survivor). There were, at peak, 8 people voting him, with 2 "threatening" votes. Those votes were: Galz (#578), e (#876), Dylan (#883), TWM (#886), Eevee (#902), Sudgy (#952 soft, #979 full vote), iguana (#991), gkrieg (#1015). Expressed intent but never did are O (#1025) and PPS (#1050). Mcmc also indicated he would be fine with a JReg lynch, but it wasn't his top choice.  Also of note is that Jake and faust voted for J Reggie in post #332 & #513 respectively - before anything significant happened.

If Reggie is Town: Of those 13 players listed above (mainly the 8 on the wagon though), I find it unlikely that we have zero of the 5-7 scum in this game aboard.

If Reggie is Mafia: I feel fairly confident that we didn't push him to L-2 with all Town votes. Even if his Mafia partners were hedging (O, PPS, Mcmc type in this case) - or actively trying to derail (Jimmm, faust, Space (and by actively I simply mean pushing elsewhere)), I highly doubt we get that much town consensus on d1.

If Reggie is SK: This is same as town above (yes? I don't see why it wouldn't be).

In all - that's a long way of saying that I would expect to find at least one scum among the 8 people on the J Reggie wagon.

Unvote

I don't think my case on J Reggie was bad. Especially for d1. I think that there was definitely some points of interest in it - but the day is young, and I think our chances of hitting scum looking at his wagon are much higher than the chance that I happened to find the smallest of scum type slips out of any player on d1.

((Also, not brought up in this post in detail is the "anti-wagon", which will also likely have scum. Lastly, there's the "avoided the whole thing" subset of players - which is ALSO likely to have scum. So YMMV on where you feel like looking. I prefer on Wagon since looking at actions is "easier" than looking at non-actions.))

[Calamitas]

Question for faust: in RMM37, which you modded, I had what I thought was a really workable strategy about claiming the order of our night actions, because the question of who had precedence was quite important when looking at the things that had happened. Do you think it's really obvious in this game that claiming the bidding order would be a bad thing overall (clearly it's bad for particular players/roles in isolation), or is there a case to be made for it along similar lines? Cal, I'd also be interested in your personal conclusion on this! Feel free to respond in non-specific ways; I'm more interested in knowing that you've thought the possibility through than seeing all your working in-thread for now.

Do I understand you right that you mean a massclaim of all draft positions?

If yes, I really don't think we should do it. It is obvious that a massclaim would disable all possibilities of fakeclaims.
So we would get a full list of all orders. That's basically a list where a higher draft spot resembles a significantly higher chance of PRness which is clearly in favor of scum.
The only advantage is, as you said, the ability to put scum under pressure for not taking specific roles. But that is way to vague to be of any help.

I mean, besides from #1 overall, anyone could always say they drafted something because they thought someone else has drafted something different or to block scum from a role or whatever.
So we won't get to definite conclusions about which slot town!x (where x is any given player who claims) would have taken in that situation and a lot is justifiable in that regard.
And in case if we go for a total massclaim (later) with all roles the effect primarily depends on the extent to which the scum team drafted town-like.
I personally would have definitely taken the same role/slot I would have as town to stay consistent (e.g. never take Godfatherer over Tracker or RB over alignment-cop).
Other players might have a different approach but I wouldn't expect too much of such a strategy in general.

And I don't think this vague upside justifies giving the scum team (basically) a list of PRs to tick off.

Claiming everything in regard to the draft (position, slot, role bid for) after being lynched (or at L-1) is definitely good though.

PPE: 12

[Galzria]

Of those one the wagon, Eevee and Gkrieg were the only two to vote with nothing but the vote itself in the post.

For you two, please elaborate on your read and reason for climbing on the wagon.

Gkrieg in particular, you did so AFTER he said both "I have a plan", and "it involves me claiming" - do you really think pushing him to out a potential PR is worthwhile here? He could simply be a VT playing the WIFOM game. He could also be scum. Please explain your reasons for the vote.

[Roadrunner7671]

In all - that's a long way of saying that I would expect to find at least one scum among the 8 people on the J Reggie wagon.

I mean...I could've told you that. In any group of 8 players, there's probably at least one scum. However, if you think there's only one scum, we should probably look somewhere else. I prefer 5/15 to 1/8.

[Eevee]

I thought he was a superior option to TWM/mcmc.

[Cuzz]

I don't really have any great master theories, I dislike some of the bigger wagons because lynching a top poster doesn't seem productive,

I do not understand why people, if they are town, talk like this. It's so utterly nonspecific and unhelpful. If that sentence has any content whatsoever, it's left entirely unsaid for some incomprehensible reason:

Which wagons do you consider the bigger ones?
Of those, which ones do you dislike?
Who do you consider the top posters among them?

ppe: one

I thought the answers to all of these questions were implied and somewhat obvious.

1) The bigger wagons have been J Reggie (peaked at ~8) TWM (peaked at 5) and after that maybe McMcsalot. 3) All three of those players are in the top half of posters. 2) Eevee doesn't want to vote for any of those three.

Not sure if all of Cuzz's interrogations have been helpful...

You know, it's not uncommon to ask someone a question not just because you want to know the answer, but because you want to analyze how the person to whom the question is directed answers it.

It's not about the answers being implied/obvious or not. It's about being specific in your positions and reasoning.

In response to Eevee's defense here:

I'm sorry, it maybe would be best to feign fake confidence in my reads, but that's very unnatural for me.

I am also not talking about being certain or confident in your reads, which is of course difficult D1. I'm talking about clarity and saying what you mean.

If Eevee was referring to the JReggie wagon, I can't see a pro-town reason to allude to it as "some of the bigger wagons" instead of using JReggie's name.

I understand Eevee has already mostly addressed my question(s). This post is to clarify my original concern to iguana.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Also, where is Jake?  This seems very uncharacteristic of him.

Hi. I'm interested to hear the J Reggie plan so I may be willing to push him to L-1 for it but with the current case I'm not ready to lynch him yet. I don't get the case on sudgy at all.

[Galzria]

Townish read on Cuzz:

Not reading the setup is anti-Town and I have no interest in giving a pass to such people.

I agree. Moreover, it's in scum's interest to just ignore how well people read the setup. It doesn't really help them - and could actually hurt them - to make sure that everybody understands fully how the game works. Town making mistakes due to a lack of reading comprehension is never good for town (I don't mean for that to sound harsh). Mafia will have had pregame to talk over everything. The chances that they've mistaken something about the setup are much smaller. Yes, you could say what Cuzz did from either alignment, but I think it's said more by town than scum.

vote: WW, because he is scum, and also hey everyone.

Serious vote: PPS.  Doing a weird amount of defending, that one is.

explain

Simple. Straight to the point. I like it.

vote: WW, because he is scum, and also hey everyone.

Serious vote: PPS.  Doing a weird amount of defending, that one is.

explain

gkrieg show your work on this pps vote. what was the weird amount of defending?

More of the same.

vote: WW, because he is scum, and also hey everyone.

Serious vote: PPS.  Doing a weird amount of defending, that one is.

explain

gkrieg show your work on this pps vote. what was the weird amount of defending?

I guess just confirming stuff.  Like that O has a generally scummy meta.

How is that a "weird amount of defending?" Also, man, we have the technology to, like, quote stuff and stuff. 

Vote: gkrieg

And it wasn't just a one off. When he got a response back - one he didn't like or feel justified the initial vote - he followed up by voting gkrieg. There's a consistency to it that I like.

More than that, every single one of Cuzz's votes (and he is leading the game in votes cast, and number of people voted for) come with a reason. Yes, maybe not the most in-depth reason with a huge case made, but a reason nonetheless.

Also vote: galzria because I can!

Probably doesn't need to be said but just in case people are confused alerting people to your draft position is dangerous because scum wants to take out people high in the draft.

Ppe 1: well galz is clearly scum.

It definitely doesn't need to be said, and no one was confused. vote: mcmc

I'll have you know that I started RVS on this board before it was cool. Actually tho, they tried to lynch me D1 in mafia III for it.

I'm not gonna lie, mutually assured destruction with e looks tempting. But I'm confident that if I laser focus on Galzria that by the time he comes around to post we can both mutually destruct with both the nostalgia and drama that i so crave.

Tunneling someone who hasn't even posted yet is some damn anti-town behavior. Vote: O

Also Cuzz and SpaceAnemone are definitely partners. Look at their avatars.

pretty sure I've had this avatar since M10.

Ah, M10.  Our debut.

vote: galzria

ok serious Vote: ashersky for this hit and run

I don't think I'm gonna read all this. I also think that posting a whole bunch is very scummy.

FOS: RR. Scum Is less likely to want to read the whole thread because they have fewer real reads to make.

I only need to make 6 reads.

This is trash. Also O is super town and I am happy to sheep. Vote: Roadrunner

I feel like it's all crazy talk here. I'm talking about just discussing the PRs out there and how the voting might have went and you're all going "massclaim bad" "we can't hunt PRs"

I'm not really proposing some revolutionary discussion, but the complete shutdown of discussion by most of the people here is really surprising to me.

I feel like from my perspective anything I could say would be a shot in the dark, because I don't know what info scum has nor what info other towns may want/need. But since scum start with an information advantage, it seems more likely that scum will be able to use any information I offer than town. So that makes me think it is not helpful to talk about even though I'm curious and honestly kinda want to have the conversation later in the game / after the game.

Vote: iguana

This is a nothing post, and it reeks of "oh I'm just town how could I possibly know anything?"

Literally everyone in the game can deduce some portion of what the scum team(s) know, as well as what town PRs might be interested in.

Further, on top of posting at least some reason for each of his votes, he has been consistent about pushing for d1 conversation, and pushing other people to explain their reads. Again, something that can be done as both town and scum, but it just READS more townie to me than not:

Hey so I highest doubt we are going to lynch someone based on the following:

1) the roles they think are strong
2) the roles they think have or haven't been taken
3) the possibility that they are high or low in the draft order (okay I can see a little reason to lynch here but it would be more of a claim draft position instead of role when you hit l-1/2 ect.)

So we should stop talking about those things and scumhunt.

Ppe:5

boo. D1 discussion has utility beyond the D1 lynch.

mcmc do some scumhunting and give us your top scumreads right now.

mcmc I find it interesting that you say

So I very much agree with what iguana said.

and then say this

I would also say if your town try really hard to read your post and if it doesn't have some real conclusions or opinions or reactions to just not post it. Every time a town player posts a fluff post it lets scum do the same, and scum want to post as much fluff as possible making the days unreadable.

Iguana's post struck me as the definition of fluff (including a useless reference to post-game conversation). What do you think?

I would be willing to lynch Robz

We may try that!

We are averaging a page an hour, stop this even though it's fun. I'm counting every post like this from now on as scummy seriously. You want a 60 page day 1 because this is how you get it.

Ppe 2: you've seen me as scum a lot, together and as a mod. Do you think I'm playing like then or like m96?

You get it by having 23 players. Discouraging conversation is anti-town. If people have such a huge problem with a lot to read D1 they shouldn't have signed up for a 23 person game.

I already pointed out 7 people who are seriously lurking. Too much content is not our problem.

I was already thinking mcmc and TWM were scum partners and then mcmc scumslipped. So yeah.

Please please give a quote if you're going to allege a scumslip which is barely ever even a thing.

It's a giant wall of text and I'm on mobile, but he implied that they've had more than one game as mafia together. I haven't actually been paying much attention to recent games, but is that true? And I'd like to see mcmc's response to this.

This is really weak. Come back to this when you can give a real quote.

And then there's a number of examples where he's "railing" (not really, but you get my meaning) about anti-town players or posts (like RR's, or just in general:

The problem with specifically lynching anti-town is it's such a good excuse for scum. And a scum jumping on one of those wagons is nearly identical to a town jumping on one. So it doesn't matter if the anti-town player was scum or not, we get nothing alignment-indicative from the interactions.

I get it. It just doesn't concern me as much as the prospect of keeping an anti-town player around for that reason. They never get night-killed, they get pseudo lynch immunity for the reasons you're giving, and they're still alive in the endgame when you need strong town players.

I'm not even sure I'm really talking about RR specifically anymore, because I don't know RR. I am just giving my outlook. I just have no patience for cute anti-town nonsense, whether it's to cultivate an unpredictable meta or whatever else.

And that just matches how I feel really well.

So yeah. Nothing he's said is "super alignment indicative OMG Cuzz is town!!!", but I do feel more comfortable with the idea of him being town based on his posts than I do for almost any other player here. Doesn't mean I'm right. Just how I feel.

[LaLight]

Also, where is Jake?  This seems very uncharacteristic of him.

Hi. I'm interested to hear the J Reggie plan so I may be willing to push him to L-1 for it but with the current case I'm not ready to lynch him yet. I don't get the case on sudgy at all.

Jake. The whole reason of the plan is to resist a lynch and be useful. Otherwise JR just would've told it. "Willing to put to L-1 but not willing to lynch" is so nonsense!

[Galzria]

In all - that's a long way of saying that I would expect to find at least one scum among the 8 people on the J Reggie wagon.

I mean...I could've told you that. In any group of 8 players, there's probably at least one scum. However, if you think there's only one scum, we should probably look somewhere else. I prefer 5/15 to 1/8.

Obviously. But you know what's different between "any group of 8 players" and "8 players on one wagon"? The 8 players on one wagon have something in common to analyze. And I did specify that I would expect "at least one", not "only one". I think our odds of finding scum by looking at the people on the wagon are much better than by randomly picking people in a thread of 23. That's kind of the point of wagons.