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[silverspawn]

url=http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=14936.msg604304#msg604304]ADK read[/url].

That seems to be the wrong link

[silverspawn]

fix:

ADK read.

That seems to be the wrong link

[Melisandre]

@Roadrunner7671 - talk me through scum-2.7 in that 2.7-Jan episode.

Um...

If I play all my cards, I'll have an empty hand.

Do you want to lynch scum?
I've/we've got no time to play games with two powerful town PR's already dead.

[J Reggie]

I had thought the deadline was an hour later.

What is this post supposed to mean? It looks like a lame excuse to me.

[iguanaiguana]

I had thought the deadline was an hour later.

What is this post supposed to mean? It looks like a lame excuse to me.

I believe it means that she thought the day was ~1 minute from being over, not about ~1 hour, so she cast her vote and left thinking that was the end of the day.

[Seprix]

Do you want to lynch scum?
I've/we've got no time to play games with two powerful town PR's already dead.

Why are you in such a hurry?

[fontisian]

I had thought the deadline was an hour later.

What is this post supposed to mean? It looks like a lame excuse to me.

I believe it means that she thought the day was ~1 minute from being over, not about ~1 hour, so she cast her vote and left thinking that was the end of the day.

Bzzt. It means I thought I had two hours to figure stuff out, so I left for 45 Minutes, and then cams back to 7 new pages, a bunch of cfds, and 5 minutes left in the day.

[2.71828.....]

Sorry, wasnt around yesterday. I want to do some more rereads and really look at all the wagons.

[Melisandre]

Why are you in such a hurry?

I don't want a repeat of the clusterf**k of D1. If someone is scum-reading my town-lean I want to know why. It's a team game.

Plus, my activity is going to drop from Friday.

[Melisandre]

fix:

ADK read.

That seems to be the wrong link

It's the right link, maybe I didn't explain it better:
2.7 said: "ADK does ADK stuff.  He could be town, but I think gkrieg is the better option right now."
I am unsure how could-be-town-ADK could be an "option" (did he just meta-clear ADK?). I.e ADK shouldn't even be in the same discussion as his gkrieg13 read.

[gkrieg13]

gkrieg13 re-read

Meta-defends Roadrunner7671

Ya he is a great scum player and I think is capable of changing his game after drawing scum twice in a row so that his two games looked different

- does gkrieg13 have enough playing experience with Roadrunner7671 to say this?

gkrieg13 highlights that Seprix "points out the inconsistency with ADK's logic". I like the fact gkrieg13 follows this up with an ISO re-read on ADK.

this reread seems scummy to me

Does gkrieg13 follow up this scum-read on silverspawn with any pressure/vote/questioning?

Some more meta-defence:

Classic Awaclus there

I haven't had enough time recently for this game with moving and stuff. Of the two larger wagons, I would rather go liopoil based on what I remember from this game. Neither of lio and Jan stuck out as super townie/don't want to lynch, and more of my town reads are on the lio wagon.

vote: liopoil

This amount of words needed to explain this liopoil vote is slightly concerning.

Have no idea what is going on but would be fine with a Seprix lynch at this point

gkrieg13 doesn't have an up-to-date grip of the game but airs his support for the Seprix lynch - unsure of this, I am sure Seprix was in gkrieg13's D1 good books.

gkrieg13 narrows it down to Liopoil and Seprix (did gkrieg13 sill have scum-feelings for silverspawn at this point?):

Liopoil over Seprix, but would be fine with either

gkrieg13 opposes the no-information Hydrad lynch.




@gkrieg13
- talk me through your read of silverspawn (from D1 through to D2).
- I didn't like your distanced pushing of the liopoil and Seprix wagons at deadline hour. I never felt like you had expressed your full feelings on why they could be scum. It felt more like you were merely agreeing with the popular wagons of that time.

So my end of day voting was purely because I felt bad that I couldn't get into the game because I was moving.  It was a fine line to walk between being helpful in our move and playing the game.  I thought my vote would be helpful on liopoil, as I still feel he is scum, but I wasn't up to date enough to really know for sure who I wanted to vote for.  I would've gone for Seprix from what little I had read that felt a lot different from his beginning of the day.  He has become a little more null than he was at the beginning of the day.

I didn't have full feelings on why either of them could be scum.  I believe at that point, it was between 3 different people.  Hydrad, lio, and Seprix.  I was saying essentially that my preference was lio>Seprix>>>Hydrad.  I didn't think that the Hydrad lynch would be good because people hadn't really taken stances on him, and it was almost a random lynch in my opinion.  He clearly got replaced, which means that he was actually just busy, not just lurking because he was scum.

I still have to reread ss, but I'm very weary of him because he is such a good scum player.  He kinda disappeared in my mind in the sea of people, so I kinda just forgot about him. 

I'm going to finish my game reread, then do some targeted rereads sometime today.

[gkrieg13]

ok getting back into this from #950 onward

this post by Seprix is interesting.  I feel like his wagon is just picking up while he should just want to lynch lio for self-preservation.  They could both be scum, which would make this interaction make sense.  Saying he was for the wagon, without actually lynching him.

ugh.  I don't like how ss starts a last minute wagon on Hydrad

I also don't like how Seprix and lio vote right after each other to follow onto the Hydrad wagon

vote: lio
so far I'm liking this conspiracy theory that they are both scum.

I like Jan's analysis of fontisian and lio.  I feel like they could be partners as well.

this vote from Seprix kinda doesn't fit my conspiracy theory.

Haddock also says he is fine with either lio or Seprix

But then Seprix unvotes when lio is at L-1.  Kinda goes back to my conspiracy theory.

Liopoil you should claim if you think if would benefit town more than scum.

This is a very interesting wording from JReggie.

I also don't really like when lio tells us what he does as scum.  I feel like I only do that when I'm scum.

ok the Hydrad wagon actually gets fairly large.  Hydrad (5): silverspawn, fontisian, Ichimaru Gin, Haddock, liopoil.  I'm not surprised ss stays on there.  I am surprised by IG and Haddock.  I don't know, I still think the Hydrad lynch would've been a bad idea.  iguana has also felt townie with his last posts.

Melis seems town for this post

interesting that RR says the setup is most likely multiball.  I don't think that comes from scum.

Awaclus (9): Seprix, silverspawn, liopoil, Haddock, A Drowned Kernel, Roadrunner7671, fontisian, Ichimaru Gin, Jan.  That's the final Awaclus wagon.  so if I color it, I get Awaclus (9): Seprix, silverspawn, liopoil, Haddock, A Drowned Kernel, Roadrunner7671, fontisian, Ichimaru Gin, Jan, which looks about right for the wagon. 

Also IG seems like a very strange kill.  Like somehow they knew he was PR?  I'll have to go and reread IG because I obviously missed something

[Melisandre]

e, what do you think is more likely for scum after having successfully led a mislynch: a.on and claim they definitely got a mafia, b.stop posting or c. express regret so they won't look as bad after the flip?

Yes, this has got me thinking again:


Would scum-silverspawn and scum-Seprix really set themselves up like this?: 

HAMMER AWACLUS NOW. OTHERWISE WE NO-LYNCH.

Awaclus is at L-1

HAMMER.

Man, we're going to get a no lynch at this point. Come on, Awaclus votes now.

I think we got him.

Awaclus was lurking, so I think we actually got scum here.

- no pre-lynch hesitancy
- no attempt to fake town paranoia/indecisiveness
- no post-lynch doubt
- no attempt to save face in expectancy of a town flip


Based on WIFOM, I can't see both silverspawn and Seprix forcing awaclus' lynch down our throats without a care for self-image. If scum, it's a brilliant gambit that hides their opportunistic motivation behind WIFOM-theatre. But I'm not going there. There was no reason to out themselves like that.

Does anyone think scum-silverspawn/scum-Seprix could pull off that confident stunt? Or are you null on it?







@J Reggie, did you answer this?

And right now I have no real scum reads. I think Seprix is town and I'm null on liopoil and Jan.

this looks like town!Seprix to me.

Why do you town-read Seprix? [the only reasons I could see signs of 'town-Seprix' in his D1 play, are reasons based on WIFOM]. Do you have any tangible reasons?

@Seprix - can you explain your scum-read of Teproc. He was in my D1 comfortable pile.

I'd expect Teproc/Melisandre to be killed N1. I do not like the IG kill at all. I think Teproc or Melisandre is scum already, maybe even both.

Can you break this down to me. All of it. Line by line. Even if it's a wall-post. We sort this now.

[liopoil]

The end of yesterday makes me read Seprix as much more likely to be town. He just had lots of genuine split-second reactions. So I'll assime he's town for now. Makes me feel suspicious of hydrad/iguana, because that wagon had way too much resistance. If iguana is town, then all the end-of-day wagons were town, and so scum is likely to be waiting and just letting town choose their mislynch. Either way, makes me lean town on everyone who pushed the Hydrad lynch. Who was that? I'll go check.

[silverspawn]

Awaclus (9): Seprix, silverspawn, liopoil, Haddock, A Drowned Kernel, Roadrunner7671, fontisian, Ichimaru Gin, Jan.  That's the final Awaclus wagon.  so if I color it, I get Awaclus (9): Seprix, silverspawn, liopoil, Haddock, A Drowned Kernel, Roadrunner7671, fontisian, Ichimaru Gin, Jan, which looks about right for the wagon.

What is that based on?

Also idk if I'm that good of a scum player. I got lynched pretty easily in Fruit Ninja Mafia which is my most recent scum game.

[silverspawn]

The end of yesterday makes me read Seprix as much more likely to be town. He just had lots of genuine split-second reactions. So I'll assime he's town for now. Makes me feel suspicious of hydrad/iguana, because that wagon had way too much resistance. If iguana is town, then all the end-of-day wagons were town, and so scum is likely to be waiting and just letting town choose their mislynch. Either way, makes me lean town on everyone who pushed the Hydrad lynch. Who was that? I'll go check.

This makes much more sense to me.

[Melisandre]

According to gkrieg13's wagon analysis:

Hydrad (5): silverspawn, fontisian, Ichimaru Gin, Haddock, liopoil

[liopoil]

Vote Count 1.18

liopoil (5): Teproc, Hydrad, gkrieg13, Roadrunner7671, A Drowned Kernel
Seprix (3): 2.71828....., J Reggie, Awaclus
Hydrad (5): silverspawn, fontisian, Ichimaru Gin, Haddock, liopoil
2.71828..... (2): Jan, Seprix

Not Voting (1): Melisandre

With 16 alive, it takes 9 to lynch. Day 1 ends June 1 at 4:30 pm forum time. That's in 10 minutes.

Okay so this was the height of the Hydrad wagon. Well we all know ichi was town, and I'm town too. Townpoints to silver and haddock, who I remember really pushed the wagon. Fontisian just put a vote down, so she only gets townpoints if Hydrad is scum, and I don't like contingencies.

@Meli: Why have you never voted for me this game?

[gkrieg13]

Awaclus (9): Seprix, silverspawn, liopoil, Haddock, A Drowned Kernel, Roadrunner7671, fontisian, Ichimaru Gin, Jan.  That's the final Awaclus wagon.  so if I color it, I get Awaclus (9): Seprix, silverspawn, liopoil, Haddock, A Drowned Kernel, Roadrunner7671, fontisian, Ichimaru Gin, Jan, which looks about right for the wagon.

What is that based on?

Also idk if I'm that good of a scum player. I got lynched pretty easily in Fruit Ninja Mafia which is my most recent scum game.

Well most of them are pretty obvious.  Seprix and lio are scum, IG was town and I have a town read on ADK and RR.  You and fonti look like possible partners for the lio/Seprix team and Jan is null and Haddock is slight town

[iguanaiguana]

Does anyone think scum-silverspawn/scum-Seprix could pull off that confident stunt? Or are you null on it?

It looks townie of Seprix. I don't put anything past silverspawn.

[iguanaiguana]

I do agree it makes them seem like they are not teammates.

[J Reggie]

@J Reggie, did you answer this?

And right now I have no real scum reads. I think Seprix is town and I'm null on liopoil and Jan.

this looks like town!Seprix to me.

Why do you town-read Seprix? [the only reasons I could see signs of 'town-Seprix' in his D1 play, are reasons based on WIFOM]. Do you have any tangible reasons?

I don't think Seprix would have spearheaded the Awaclus lynch as scum, and this is also looking like Seprix in Fruit Ninja.

[fontisian]

e, what do you think is more likely for scum after having successfully led a mislynch: a.on and claim they definitely got a mafia, b.stop posting or c. express regret so they won't look as bad after the flip?

Yes, this has got me thinking again:


Would scum-silverspawn and scum-Seprix really set themselves up like this?: 

HAMMER AWACLUS NOW. OTHERWISE WE NO-LYNCH.

Awaclus is at L-1

HAMMER.

Man, we're going to get a no lynch at this point. Come on, Awaclus votes now.

I think we got him.

Awaclus was lurking, so I think we actually got scum here.

- no pre-lynch hesitancy
- no attempt to fake town paranoia/indecisiveness
- no post-lynch doubt
- no attempt to save face in expectancy of a town flip


Based on WIFOM, I can't see both silverspawn and Seprix forcing awaclus' lynch down our throats without a care for self-image. If scum, it's a brilliant gambit that hides their opportunistic motivation behind WIFOM-theatre. But I'm not going there. There was no reason to out themselves like that.

Does anyone think scum-silverspawn/scum-Seprix could pull off that confident stunt? Or are you null on it?







@J Reggie, did you answer this?

And right now I have no real scum reads. I think Seprix is town and I'm null on liopoil and Jan.

this looks like town!Seprix to me.

Why do you town-read Seprix? [the only reasons I could see signs of 'town-Seprix' in his D1 play, are reasons based on WIFOM]. Do you have any tangible reasons?

@Seprix - can you explain your scum-read of Teproc. He was in my D1 comfortable pile.

I'd expect Teproc/Melisandre to be killed N1. I do not like the IG kill at all. I think Teproc or Melisandre is scum already, maybe even both.

Can you break this down to me. All of it. Line by line. Even if it's a wall-post. We sort this now.

No, they wouldn't.  That is my point.

[silverspawn]

Awaclus (9): Seprix, silverspawn, liopoil, Haddock, A Drowned Kernel, Roadrunner7671, fontisian, Ichimaru Gin, Jan.  That's the final Awaclus wagon.  so if I color it, I get Awaclus (9): Seprix, silverspawn, liopoil, Haddock, A Drowned Kernel, Roadrunner7671, fontisian, Ichimaru Gin, Jan, which looks about right for the wagon.

What is that based on?

Also idk if I'm that good of a scum player. I got lynched pretty easily in Fruit Ninja Mafia which is my most recent scum game.

Well most of them are pretty obvious.  Seprix and lio are scum, IG was town and I have a town read on ADK and RR.  You and fonti look like possible partners for the lio/Seprix team and Jan is null and Haddock is slight town

So it is not based on their wagon position, but based on other stuff?

[Melisandre]

@Meli: Why have you never voted for me this game?

Here I am on you:

D1

- I didn't like your out-of-RVS RVS vote on Teproc.
- I did not like your "it's not like he would get towncred for sheeping Seprix" comment.
- I didn't like your early reads list - it was heavy meta-based. I didn't feel its sincerity.
- I didn't believe your scum-read of Seprix was real
- I could not see this: "fortisian thing is mostly that she is agreeing with me on literally everything"

[At this point, you were under pressure from many players so I didn't feel I needed to add a pressure vote, as I was still figuring you out and didn't want you to enter defence-mode].

- I liked Teproc's scum-narrative on you.

[At this stage I was wondering if you were nervous town or nervous scum - I liked the pressure on you.]

- I personally didn't like the speed of your wagon (empty votes).
- Then I saw you didn't mind the focus on you - using sarcasm. 
- I noticed that you were open to many lynches, even players you were not scum-reading. I felt scum-liopoil would have been more cautious here (especially when facing a lynch of his own). I kind of ruled out opportunistic-liopoil here.
- the make-up of your wagon made me feel distanced from your wagon (namely Awaclus' and Hydrad's votes).
- you then softed a PR to escape a lynch. There is no denying that. If you'd roleclaimed VT you would have been the D1 lynch. (I would have voted you here to ensure a D1 lynch.)

[This is when I begin becoming frustrated with your slot].

- End of Day 1, I wanted your full hardclaim or no lynch. I wasn't a fan of any other wagon. (Jan had talked me out of my vote on him.)

D2
- I sensed town-humility in your comment: "I thinj the awaclus lynch was largely my fault for causing the ridiculous end-of-day." (NOT scum-liopoil trying-to-redeem-himself).
- Re-reading D1, I realise you were the prime D1 info-lynch. When you do flip we'll have one further wagon to look at. I do not like your trust-me-or-lynch-me mantra, but if you find scum you won't be a policy lynch/lynch bait for scum to manipulate.



So why have I never voted for you this game?
- timing: I didn't feel like my vote was needed. My interactions with you were producing enough information.
- confirmation-bias: I didn't like the speed of your wagon.
- WIFOM: I don't think scum-liopoil would be that obvious being opportunistic and desperate to save themselves from a lynch.
- your-hardclaim-without-actually-hardclaiming: it basically says "f**k-off-you're-not-lynching-me-only-on-my-terms".