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[Teproc]

So I have a feeling we're not in multiball, what do people think?

Depends what you call multiball : I think mafia+SK is more likely than two scum teams, but only one scumteam and everyone else town is very unlikely.

It's also not super relevant right now : what did you think of how the lynch went down ? Not just Awaclus, but the previous wagons before that.

[J Reggie]

So I have a feeling we're not in multiball, what do people think?

Depends what you call multiball : I think mafia+SK is more likely than two scum teams, but only one scumteam and everyone else town is very unlikely.

It's also not super relevant right now : what did you think of how the lynch went down ? Not just Awaclus, but the previous wagons before that.

I don't like it but at least it wasn't me. It's hard to say what I would have done had I been there, but I probably would have argued against the Awaclus lynch.

[iguanaiguana]

I'm kinda all over the place right now trying to catch up. I've read pages 1-15 or so and the weird EoD where Awaclus got lynched and where my Hydra was MIA. I haven't read anything in the middle of the day and really need to re-read everything to get anywhere and add something helpful. Unfortunately I don't think I'll get a chance to do that until Tuesday. Until then, I'll do my best to react to everything new as it happens.

As of now I have no firm scumreads because I just haven't had the chance to evaluate everyone yet and analyze their posts like I normally would have by Day 2. This is similar to the beginning of D1 for me.

My gut feeling though is actually to look closest at the players off the Awaclus wagon because I don't think scum wants to participate too heavily in a last minute snap-mislynch like that.

[J Reggie]

And right now I have no real scum reads. I think Seprix is town and I'm null on liopoil and Jan. Like, being town is so much harder than scum because when you're scum you have information and can just make up reads based on things people say, but when you're town anyone could be scum (except yourself).

[Roadrunner7671]

I am incapable of doing good.

[fontisian]

I thought I was going to be around at the end of the day but got pulled into a meeting at work....new bosses and they are trying to change the duties and responsibilities of my job...so yeah. 

Anyway, since I wasn't a part of it, I will strongly condemn that lynch.  It was absolutely awful.  I know, lynching is important, but that lynch totally felt like scum pushing some last minute lynch away from a different last minute lynch of a partner.

I am going back to vote: Seprix

BTW this setup is probably multiball.

This is also interesting.  RR, do you say that because of the size of the game, or what?  I mean, sure, but you seem fairly confident and I don't see anything that says multiball

/Says the lynch felt like scum were pushing it away from other scum
/Votes someone who didn't vote Awaclus

There were five different ways those wagons could have gone. You're telling me you think the Awaclus runup was specifically to save Seprix, when Seprix didn't even try to save himself?

Vote: e

General suggestion: Stop randomly running people up just before the deadline. Jeez.

Looking forward to seeing Lio's thing and iguana's catch up.

[2.71828.....]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

liopoil (3): Teproc, Hydrad, gkrieg13
Seprix (3): 2.71828....., J Reggie, Awaclus
Awaclus (9): Seprix, silverspawn, liopoil, Haddock, A Drowned Kernel, Roadrunner7671, fontisian, Ichimaru Gin, Jan

Not Voting (1): Melisandre

With 16 alive, it took 9 to lynch.

Uh....Seprix started the awaclus movement

[2.71828.....]

I am saying that scum exists in the pool of people who were lynch candidates at the end of day. So {liopoil, seprix, e, jan}

I am not scum. I don't think liopoil is. Seprix started the movement, as awaclus is an easy enough target to get quick votes due to his sometimes abrasive personality.

[iguanaiguana]

Well, I had a little time this afternoon after all. So I am going to do a portion of the re-read and see how far I get.

I really need to apply different voices in my head when reading you guys.
If anyone wants to be a specific voice, let me know.

I'll take Kermit the frog, who I imagine to be friend of iguanas everywhere.

vote: Melisandre

(all my votes are serious, always)

If you want a voice, imagine the voice of a dude looking at a map and trying to figure out what he'll do once he gets those 5 extra cards.

Don't like this mix of a joke and "I'm always serious tho"

Tryhard scum is tryhard.

Really? Do you think an experienced scum would open the game like this?

Town on this.

ADK is obvtown already, this is going great.

vote: Teproc

Agree with this reaction.

@silverspawn it's just a bad feeling I get when I see people pushing back against people who make real votes and reads early. Scum wants to try and shut down and discourage actual discussion. Also "you can't have a real read yet! vote so-and-so" is an easy way for scum to look like they're contributing without taking a particularly risky position.

This feels like a lot of an overstatement though.

Oh, that. Well, that's partially for meta reasons, and also because I'm usually automatically a little suspicious of people who claim to have a town read on me.

Nope, don't like this. "Meta reasons" is a big cop-out. ADK is giving Teproc a chance to explain ADK's scumread away, which is exactly what he does here:

PPE : Well, I only scumread you when you're scum is the thing, but I see.

So currently feeling scum on both Teproc and ADK.

Okay, now the whole Seprix vs. Melisandre fight is starting up, which I remember following before I was in the game and thinking "This looks like town vs. town." Before I dip back into that, I'm going to go enjoy my Saturday.

[fontisian]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

liopoil (3): Teproc, Hydrad, gkrieg13
Seprix (3): 2.71828....., J Reggie, Awaclus
Awaclus (9): Seprix, silverspawn, liopoil, Haddock, A Drowned Kernel, Roadrunner7671, fontisian, Ichimaru Gin, Jan

Not Voting (1): Melisandre

With 16 alive, it took 9 to lynch.

Uh....Seprix started the awaclus movement

Oh, oops. I swapped Reggie's and Seprix's names in my analysis somehow.

unvote

[J Reggie]

Currently think might be scum: Teproc, e, Haddock, ADK, any of the new players I have no idea.

Would be happy with a wagon on any of those. vote: Teproc.

[2.71828.....]

Currently think might be scum: Teproc, e, Haddock, ADK, any of the new players I have no idea.

Would be happy with a wagon on any of those. vote: Teproc.

so you made a list and I don't see a clear delineation between the start and the end  (the scum --> I have no idea)

to be clear, you think that: Teproc, myself, Haddock and ADK might be scum
You have no idea if Jan, Melisandre, fontisian might be scum

You are happy with a wagon on any of the top 4, or all 7?

[J Reggie]

Currently think might be scum: Teproc, e, Haddock, ADK, any of the new players I have no idea.

Would be happy with a wagon on any of those. vote: Teproc.

so you made a list and I don't see a clear delineation between the start and the end  (the scum --> I have no idea)

to be clear, you think that: Teproc, myself, Haddock and ADK might be scum
You have no idea if Jan, Melisandre, fontisian might be scum

You are happy with a wagon on any of the top 4, or all 7?

You read it right, and I would be happy with a wagon on all 7 (well not at the same time).

[Jan]

Currently think might be scum: Teproc, e, Haddock, ADK, any of the new players I have no idea.

Would be happy with a wagon on any of those. vote: Teproc.

so you made a list and I don't see a clear delineation between the start and the end  (the scum --> I have no idea)

to be clear, you think that: Teproc, myself, Haddock and ADK might be scum
You have no idea if Jan, Melisandre, fontisian might be scum

You are happy with a wagon on any of the top 4, or all 7?

You read it right, and I would be happy with a wagon on all 7 (well not at the same time).

Does that mean you have townreads on everyone else?

If so would you mind giving reasons on why you townread them?
If not do you mind giving reasons why the first mentioned 5 are scummy for you?
(I would assume you have reasons for at least one of those (scum or townreads), maybe both)

[Seprix]

We might have a slight problem.

[J Reggie]

Does that mean you have townreads on everyone else?

If so would you mind giving reasons on why you townread them?
If not do you mind giving reasons why the first mentioned 5 are scummy for you?
(I would assume you have reasons for at least one of those (scum or townreads), maybe both)

I don't have town reads on everyone else. Some are null.

A lot of this is based on what happened yesterday being compared to what I know of these players' metas.

Haddock and e and Teproc need to be under more scrutiny, because they often get very strong townreads when they're scum. Haddock looked towny D1, which can be a scumtell for him. I know that Teproc is a good player, but I haven't been getting good vibes. Teproc, why are you tunneling me?

I don't know what Seprix is like as scum, but this looks like town!Seprix to me.

On another note:

We might have a slight problem.

What's your problem?

[Seprix]

I was wrong about the set-up, it's fine.

[Seprix]

I'd expect Teproc/Melisandre to be killed N1. I do not like the IG kill at all. I think Teproc or Melisandre is scum already, maybe even both.

vote: Teproc

Let's start here.

[2.71828.....]

vote: Awaclus

Let's make it happen.

vote: Awaclus

Vote: Awaclus

Stop talking about it and do it!!!

Go go go!

Vote: Awaclus

vote: Awaclus

vote: awaclus

Vote: Awaclus

We need to lynch. Now.

Fuck it, vote: Awaclus.

It's too close.

Vote: Awaclus

I dislike it, but no lynch is not an option.

The first 5 were all within one minute.  The next three within 26 seconds.  Total time: 7 minutes, 7 seconds.

Melisandre saw (correctly) that Awaclus was a PR and defended him.  Scum doesn't point that out at that critical juncture.  I am very confident that Melisandre is town.  Not lynching today.

3 people rebuffed that defense

Liopoil hardclaim or NO LYNCH.

This is where it is heading.



Awaclus has basically been softing a PR role all game with his 'there is a reason I'm not explaining anything I post" mantra.

1. No lynch is awful.
2. Awaclus plays like that every game. It's a null tell.

Awaclus has basically been softing a PR role all game with his 'there is a reason I'm not explaining anything I post" mantra.

A reasonable assumption from your perspective, but you're wrong. Awaclus always does this. It's not a PR tell.

Liopoil hardclaim or NO LYNCH.

This is where it is heading.



Awaclus has basically been softing a PR role all game with his 'there is a reason I'm not explaining anything I post" mantra.

No that is just awaclus.

2 people posted with confidence that Awaclus was scum

I think we got him.

Awaclus was lurking, so I think we actually got scum here.

So really, silverspawn and Seprix look the worst from this whole exchange.  I doubt both are scum.  I think one of them is scum.  I think that scum is Seprix.  My vote is already there.



And yeah, Melisandre is town.  This isn't scum faking disappointment in the lynch.  This is town shaking their head in disbelief about what just happened.  Because Melisandre was right.  And no one listened.

"Meta"

[2.71828.....]

And yeah.  Lynching D1 is important.  And yeah, it is easy to sit back on the sidelines and critique the lynch because I wasn't around to vote.  But really.  Throughout the day, Awaclus had 4 other votes.  4.  One was RVS.  Wait, no, they ALL were RVS.  Until the lynch.

We had wagons on Seprix.  We had wagons on Liopoil.  We had wagons on me.  We had wagons on Jan.  We had wagons on ADK.  We had wagons on Hydrad. 

We lynch Awaclus.  My question.  Why?  I can tell you why.  Because he gave off the appearance of being scummy, without being scum.  Basically, the perfect PR game.  No one voted him seriously throughout the game because, well, he didn't do anything to deserve a vote.  But he gave off "that scummy vibe."  Which made it super easy to lynch him with that mob like mentality when people are just voting without really thinking.  Couldn't build a wagon on him, so just mob-lynch him. 

And don't give me any of the excuses that scum wouldn't be involved in this lynch.  The "oh we just had to get a lynch through so it wasn't scummy" is such an easy excuse.  I mean, those last 3 people have almost a scummier position (well, only 2 alive now since Ichi got NKed) because "they held out as long as they could" to see if another lynch was viable.

[J Reggie]

Seprix is town. Let's vote Teproc.

[Seprix]

e, I have some questions for you.

Melisandre saw (correctly) that Awaclus was a PR and defended him.  Scum doesn't point that out at that critical juncture.  I am very confident that Melisandre is town.  Not lynching today.

1. Prove Melisandre knew Awaclus was a PR. Yes, you cannot, and I know this, and so do you.

It is easily explainable that Melisandre was scum, so knowing Awaclus was town and defending him for town cred. He got an incredibly lucky hit when Awaclus turned out to be the most critical PR in the game. I don't think Melisandre could be explained away as town at all from this. I think you're dreaming.

The "oh we just had to get a lynch through so it wasn't scummy" is such an easy excuse.

2. So a no-lynch was better?

Yes, it completely goddamn sucks we hit Awaclus. It really does. Yes, I voted first for Awaclus. I admit his playstyle infuriated me enough to want him lynched. It wasn't the best lynch. It was a mistake. It would have been a mistake if he flipped scum even, as it was not the correct lynch. But we were running out of time to think. Town in general screwed up, and I was part of that. But the important bit is that we have some information now, at the very least.  IG is dead, and so is Awaclus. We have something to work with.

I think scum was involved in the lynch. His name is Melisandre. Teproc also distances himself from the lynch with his initial post, stating that he would never have approved such a thing. Like, how weird is that?

3. What do you think of Teproc?

[J Reggie]

Why do we think Awaclus is our best PR? We don't even know what his powers were.

[Seprix]

Why do we think Awaclus is our best PR? We don't even know what his powers were.

He reacted as such.

[2.71828.....]

1. Prove Melisandre knew Awaclus was a PR. Yes, you cannot, and I know this, and so do you.

[other stuff Seprix posted]

I think scum was involved in the lynch. His name is Melisandre.

No.  I can't prove that Melisandre knew Awaclus was a PR.  I do think Melisandre had a good read on Awaclus [that proved to be correct] as an outsider evaluating his posts.