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[mail-mi]

I'm down with the SK-turned-town claiming plan. Fake claiming is unwise for either scum or sk, so it seems pretty good.

Also, we may not even have it and just be wasting pages (which is NOT a good idea), so I think we should end the discussion soon, if not right now.

and unvote

[yuma]

Anyways, that's my thought on it.  Just don't get shot by the town-vig

If the hidden IC doesn't want to get shot by the town vig they should just make sure to not suspect the town vig for horrible reasons and look extremely scummy causing the town vig to think that he is scum for sure!

(MVIII reference for everyone wondering...)

[Robz888]

I mean, the hidden IC shouldn't expect the town Vig to shoot anyone tonight...

[Robz888]

... because Vigs shouldn't shoot on Night 1!

[A Drowned Kernel]

No one should expect the town Vig (if there is one) to shoot tonight because it's a Night 3 Vig.

[Voltaire]

Not Vig-slips, not-Vig slips everywhere! This is why we try not to talk theory, and this is what always happens.

Why haven't we lynched Axxle yet?

[Robz888]

Yeah, a bunch of people slipped that they do not have a role that isn't even in the game! I think we're fine.

[Teproc]

vote: yuma

So we were finally starting this game, and yuma rolls in with a plan that is the epitome of why we shouldn't theory talk in this game but apparently everyone is just cool with that ? I'm not, this is a waste of time and only beneficts scum by :
1) Giving a lot of info. Seriously guys, read those posts. Also read the setup thoroughly
2) Delaying the start of the game/adding pointless material to the thread

[XerxesPraelor]

Not Vig-slips, not-Vig slips everywhere! This is why we try not to talk theory, and this is what always happens.

Why haven't we lynched Axxle yet?

Why would we lynch him?
Also, the later yuma gets without vigging, the more suspicious we should be.

[XerxesPraelor]

Oops, wrong one. Still, what did axxle do wrong?

[XerxesPraelor]

... because Vigs shouldn't shoot on Night 1!

Why not?

[Teproc]

... because Vigs shouldn't shoot on Night 1!

Why not?

Oh dear God.

Robz (and a bunch of other people) doesn't think vigs should shoot on day 1, ash thinks they should. Let's please not do this ?

[XerxesPraelor]

On Sk- claiming, it seems odd, but good.
Also: Vote: Teproc.
Theory is one of the best ways of making interactions, and I rely on lots of discussion to get off the ground.

[Robz888]

Teproc, sheesh.

Xerxes, some of us think that Vigs should not shoot on Night 1. I am one the biggest proponent of that. The reason is that the opinion of one townie isn't necessarily better than the collective town, or even better than random. This is fairly debatable of course, but in a vacuum, Vigs are often going to just be a detriment to town.

In later days, with a lot more information, Vigs can do some good--particular if we are in a situation where we can't win without them. On Night 1, a Vig who shoots is just going to see an extra townie turn up dead, and why would we want that?

This take is slightly outdated, though, since Vigs have not been a big part of recent games. And we don't even have a regular Vig here, so no need to really discuss it further.

[Teproc]

Teproc, sheesh.

We were on a good track, and nothing good has come out of this discussion, quite the contrary. Not sure what's worth sheeshing about.

[Robz888]

I'm just not a fan of theory panic. I don't think it's scummy/not scummy to have the opinion you do, I just don't share it.

[ashersky]

Hey guys, just checking in, still on LA for at least 36 more hours (should be able to start ZM18 though).  I do have thoughts on the setup.

No one claim anything at this point.  That needs to be stated.

[ashersky]

Also, that last setup change by Faust came about due to me finding a way to beat the setup during pre-game.  I'm not convinced he's completely stopped me from trapping scum though.  Let me think it through.

Now that the draft is complete, I do think there's still a way to catch scum in lies with coordinated claiming, but it needs to be planned out correctly.  When I have more time, I'll post my thinking and see what others think.

[ashersky]

Alright, turns out I have a few minutes now, and I expect some free time later in the evening.

I played the last version of this game (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=5187.0 for reference, as people name it but haven't bothered to link it).  As mentioned, eHunt won that one as mafia.

One of the main differences between the original and this variation is that Slot 9.  In the original, if mafia won a slot (say, Roleblocker), they had a built in fake claim that could not be counterclaimed (Doctor).  If they didn't win a slot, VT was a safe claim, since they knew someone else got the slot they bid on.  In that sense, the original setup provided some extra information for mafia (i.e., I didn't win my Roleblocker bid; ergo, there is a town Doctor OR Roleblocker in the game.)

In this game, Slot 9 removes mafia's built in fake claims.  That meant that if the Mafia got the Strongman role, they couldn't safely fakeclaim Vengeful, in case it went to Slot 9.  I figured we could just force a claiming order that would hem scum into dangerous territory and basically POE on D1 and just lynch from the liar pool.  The basic idea was, force everyone to claim role, then claim draft slot.  Scum can't fakeclaim a town role safely, and they can't claim VT if they won a role.  One way around that would have been to claim to have chosen something of someone above them in the draft order, but that's why we'd keep draft order claiming until AFTER roles were claimed.  I didn't see a way scum could beat my plan.  I pointed this out to Faust pre-game because to me that was just gaming the system and not really playing a mafia game, and he made the adjustment that if Slot 9 was made with any roles from the mafia or SK slots, they'd be informed.  Now they have safe fake claims.

I don't know for sure that there isn't a way we could still do it with some combination of number claiming following by draft order claiming followed by mass claiming.  I actually think forcing an order claiming BEFORE the number claiming is the best way to catch scum, though, as I don't think role claims help us catch anyone -- scum can just safely claim the town role that isn't in Slot 9 and/or VT if they didn't win a role.

If there's something to be gained from claims, it's draft order and whole numbers.  If we set the draft order correctly (and really, scum can't get out of telling the truth here, as we'll have missing turns), we can figure out who's lying or not pretty easily when claims happen.  I'm worried though, that it just lets scum actually POE everyone's possible roles relative to their own draft rank -- so mafia who missed out on Strongman knows that someone above them on the draft order list is Vengeful or N3 Vig.

With faust's Slot 9 fix, I don't think there's a safe way of catching scum through claiming, based on my back of the napkin thoughts here.  While we could get more information through number/draft rank claiming, I think it's too detrimental to town and therefore needs to be avoided.

Does that make sense?  Did I miss anything?

Now to think about yuma's SK plan.

[ashersky]

One idea that I do have is this:

if we have a SK that was converted to a townie or a survivor (BUT NOT LOVER) I wonder if they should claim. I don't think a SK would fake claim that, maybe they would??? But it basically confirms someone for us as "not mafia" unless mafia fake claims that, but that seems risky unless they won that role... Anyway that is as far as I think claiming should go if it should go at all.

I haven't fully fleshed that idea out, but I think it has potential. It obviously won't be completely trust worthy but it might be... One downside is that we will be guaranteed to not have a JK/Tracker or a Doctor/Roleblocker if that person does claim, but I think having a psuedo-non-mafia-IC might be worth giving scum that knowledge...?

I've thought this over, and I think this is a bad idea.  ICs are strong, but if we decide to proclaim "okay, SK that turned townie or survivor, claim now please!" and then there is no claim, what new information has that silence added to the game?  Right now, we don't know what scum does and doesn't know.

But if no Innocent or Survivor SK comes forward, we're basically confirming the existence of one of the other roles.  I don't think that's a good idea.  Plus, we don't know if the SK roles went to Slot 9.

Right now, for example, there's a 1/27 chance there's a Tracker in the game, right?  If we do the "SK should claim" plan, and he doesn't, that drops to a 1/2 chance (+Slot 9 shenanigans).  I think confirming that sort of thing strikes me as a bad for town, because scum knowing what to look out for helps them, not us.

[Axxle]

Let me know when theory stops. We had a perfectly good "rvs" wagon on robz to look at to launch the game.

[faust]

"Wise men speak because they have something to say; fools because they have to say something."
- Plato

Vote Count 1.3

Teproc (3): AndrewisFTTW, Axxle, XerxesPraelor
Axxle (2): Voltaire, mcmcsalot
AndrewisFTTW (3): theorel, Robz888, yuma
sugdy (1): A Drowned Kernel
XerxesPraelor (1): sudgy
yuma (1): Teproc

Not voting (4): scott_pilgrim, ashersky, jothenoah, mail-mi

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Day 1 ends at 10:00 a.m. on April 8, 2014

[theorel]

I agree that draft-order claiming only benefits scum.
Draft Order + mass-claim could catch them in either a lie or unusuality (i.e. why'd you pick that role with that draft-order?)  But, that's not the strongest evidence, and it depends on which roles they chose and their spot in draft order, AND if they lie, there's the difficulty of actually catching it.

There's much more than a 1/27 chance there's a Tracker in this game.  If we give each town player equal probability of selecting Tracker from all available roles there's more like a 12/27 chance of a tracker (which is also wrong for various reasons).  Regardless, there are reasons SK->Survivor shouldn't claim, so that doesn't really matter.

Now, a SK->Townie claiming tells scum that it's less likely there's a cop (since that requires one of the roles to have gone to slot 9, which is around a 1/16 chance).  Which, it's not like there's a whole lot scum can do about a cop existing.  Especially given the potential for any role to show up in slot-9, I'm leaning towards SK-townie claiming being a low-cost claim.

[mcmcsalot]

Why are robz, Yuma, and theorel voting for Andrew?

[theorel]

Because he does taxes...(that's my reason).  I have no idea why Robz and yuma are doing it.