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[Teproc]

And yes, the RR lycnh was terrible (and had the hammer come from anyone else's I'd be screaming for their lynch), but we know at least one town was on it, and probably two... let's just say that if I were you, igu, I'd reconsider my reads, deeply. There's a reason you're still alive despite everyone and their grandmother thinking you're town.

Oh, and re:ash saying gkrieg and me should have been named... I was surprised not to be named on day 1, but gkrieg ? He was never strongly townread in this game, didn't he get wagons on both days ?

[Teproc]

I say terrible but really, it was just like any other RR mislynch. I think it might be informative actually, but I'll need to look at it closer.

[Teproc]

Something else: it may be daunting, but we have a lot at our disposal. This has not been a sleepy game, and combined with
the scum-crowded lynch pool it means we should be able to figure things out, DWII-style. But we have to put in the work. And be ready to reconsider everything.

[ashersky]

I'm pretty certain both ash and iguana's analysis are wrong... so let's try it out. Relevant part of the OP:

9. If the game goes on for 3 days and 3 nights without a lynch or nightkill, town wins.

[...]

Endgame:
-The mafia or werewolves win if they obtain a full majority of living players, or if they make up half and at least one protown role is still alive.

-If the mafia and werewolves ever make up equal numbers, with no protown roles left alive, then mafia win. Mafia also win if a day phase begins with one mafia, one werewolf, and one protown.

I'll assume mafia never lists themselves and WWs always assume this as well because it's simpler to theorycraft, but in any situation which leads to a WW or town win, bear in mind mafia can WIFOM there to make it harder to PoE them.

The situation right now: 4T, 3M, 2W.

1) We lynch town=> 3T, 3M, 2W

1a) The WWs kill town => 2T, 3M, 2W

If we lynch town again => mafia wins.
If we lynch werewolf => mafia wins
If we lynch mafia, and:
- werewolves kill town, it's now 1/2/2. Lynching town mafia wins, lynching mafia WWs win, lynching WW mafia wins
- werewolves no kill, it's now 2/2/2. Lynching town, WWs have to no kill, so it's 1/2/2... I don't know but I'm pretty sure we don't win that one; either mafia wins or WWs win. Lynching mafia, WWs win. Lynching WWs they nokill so it's 2/2/1, lynching WW means mafia wins, lynching mafia means WWs nokill (because mafia wins 1/1/1) and we have to lynch WW THEN mafia, and town wins. Shortcut for later: 2/2/2 has an out, which is: lynch WW, then mafia, then WW, then mafia.
If we noylnch, and:
- werewolves kill town, it's now 1/3/2, mafia wins
- werewolves no-kill, we're back to 1a. Three cycles means town wins, so werewolves get to play kingmakers (killing means, no killing three times makes town win). Mafia + WWs can get a lynch through though, so they can ally somehow, not sure who wins if that happens, but it's not us.

So... 1a essentially means we either need to lynch Mafia/WW/Mafia/WW/Mafia with WWs always no killing (which is not guaranteed) OR try to go for three cycles and hope WWs kingmake in our favor. Pretty dire, but not an outright loss I suppose.

1b) The WWs no kill: 3T/3M/2W

If we lynch town, it's now 2/3/2. WWs have to nokill, so we're back to 1a).
If we lynch mafia, it's now 3/2/2. WWs kill town, we're at 2/2/2, see that part of 1a. WWs can nokill, but in 2/2/2 they win by lynching mafia, so I don't think they do that so let's skip that part, feel free to do it yourself.
If we lynch WW, it's now 3/3/1. Lynching town or WW means mafia wins. Lynching mafia, if WWs kill town we're now at 2/2/1, we need to lynch mafia, WWs no kill then we need to lynch WW then we need to lynch mafia. So 3/3/1 (and ultimately 2/2/1) also have an out of: lynch mafia, then mafia, then WW, then mafia.
If we no lynch WWs have to kill eventually or we win, if they kill town it's 2/3/2. They have to nokill now, we're back to 1a or the WWs as kingmakers scenario, with the potential WW/mafia alliance.

Long story short: we're not quite at mylo. Our fate is not entirely in our hand though, because if we mislynch and WWs kill we need to then lynch mafia, and WWs get to choose between 1/2/2 (where they win by lynching mafia and we never win) and 2/2/2 (where they win by lynching mafia and maybe have a shot if they lynch town, but we still can win by lining up scum lynches in the correct order). If they no kill we then need to lynch WW (so they probably don't do that ?) and now we need to line up the scum lynches in the correct order. I think WWs like the first situation better anyway and will kill. There is also the no lynch option which forces WW to either kingmake or ally with mafia... I don't know what the latter looks like but it can't be good for us, and I certainly don't like letting WWs just decide the fate of the game either, so I don't think that's really a plan... not in 1 anyway.

2) We lynch mafia => 4T, 2M, 2W

I'm not going to entertain nokill because I hardly see why WWs would oblige us in that way there, so let's make that 3T, 2M, 2W.

2a) We lynch town, it's now 2/2/2, with WW able to make it 1/2/2 if they wish, and we lose, or they nokill and it's good ol' 2/2/2 again.

2b) We lynch mafia, it's now 3/1/2, WWs definitely kill so it's 2/1/2. Lynching town means WWs win, Llynching mafia means WWs win, lynching WW puts us at 2/1/1 with WW unable to nokill (or mafia wins, we then need to lynch WW then lynch mafia.

2c) We lynch WW, it's now 3/1/1. WWs definitely kill so it's 2/1/1. We know this one: we need to lynch WW then mafia.

2d) We nolynch. WWs kill, we're at 2/2/2, we know that one. No lynching is thus terrible in 2).

Once again, a mislynch at any point doesn't quite mean we lose, but it does take our fates partially in WWs hands.

3) We lynch WW => 4T/3M/1W

Obviously WWs kill, so 3T/3M/1W

3a) We lynch town.  Mafia wins

3b) We lynch mafia. 3/2/1. WWs kill town, 2/2/1. We must lynch mafia, WWs can't kill, we must lynch WW and then lynch mafia.

3c) We lynch WW. It's now 4/3. Lynching town means mafia wins, but every mafia lynch means we can afford a mislynch.

3d) We nolynch. WWs have to nokill... yeah, this is the whole WW kingmakers scenario I really don't like again.

4) We nolynch => 4T, 3M, 2Ws

WWs kill town... I think we can stop there, nolynching is terrible.


Now all of this is subject to mafia never submitting themselves... things can do much better for us if they get killed at night of course, but if they anticipate getting into one of the town wins situation (so, mostly in 2 and 3), they can start not including themselves (they might have done it already but I don't think so).

Essentially, I don't get the doom and gloom. This is slightly better than normal mylo... granted, we have 5 scum to lynch, but we have a really small lynchpool. We can do it... except if people give up. iguana I think is just depressed town, but I don't get how ash gets this so wrong ? I'm not sure which faction benefits the most from apathetic town here, but I sure don't think it's us.

This seems right, but also overly complicated and not user friendly.

4T v 3M v 2W

1. Mislynch. Day 4 starts with 2T v 3M v 2W.

1a. Mislynch, 3M wins.
1b. Lynch WW, 3M wins.
1c. Lynch Mafia.. Day 5 starts with 1T v 2M v 2W.  Either M or W wins.

I removed the no kill option from consideration, as you'd need WW to think they have a better chance of lynching Mafia out of 5 alive instead of 6.  Not sure I see it.

So basically, a mislynch today leads to a scum win basically 99.9% of the time.

2. Lynch Mafia. Day 4 starts with 3T v 2M v 2W.

2a. Mislynch.  Day 5 is 1T v 2M v 2W.
Scum wins no matter what.

2b. Lynch WW.  Day 5 is 2T v 2M v 1W.
Mislynch or WW lynch is a M win.  Mafia lynch + No Kill means Day 6 is 2T v 1M v 1W.  Mislynch or WW lynch is an M win, M lynch is a WW win, W lynch is normal lylo on Day 7.

2c. Lynch Mafia. Day 5 is 2T v 1M v 2W.
Mislynch or Mafia lynch means WW wins.  WW lynch + no kill Day 6 is 2T v 1M v 1W.  Mislynch or WW lynch is an M win, M lynch is a WW win, W lynch is normal lylo on Day 7.

2b. Mafia, WW, Mafia, WW, Mafia is a town win (defeating final Mafia in LYLO).
2c. Mafia, Mafia, WW, WW is a town win (defeating final WW in LYLO).

3. Lynch WW.. Day 4 starts with 3T v 3M v 1W.

3a. Mislynch.  M wins.
3b. WW lynch. M wins.
3c. Mafia lynch.  Day 5 starts with 2T v 2M v 1W.  See 2b.

3c. WW, Mafia, Mafia, WW, Mafia is a town win (deafeating final Mafia in LYLO).


I think that is clearer.  Today we have zero out with a mislynch, two outs with a mafia lynch, and one out with a WW lynch.

[ashersky]

Trimmed for ease of reading.  Bolded our outs to win.

Now: 4T v 3M v 2W

1. Mislynch. Day 4 starts with 2T v 3M v 2W.

1a. Mislynch, 3M wins.
1b. Lynch WW, 3M wins.
1c. Lynch Mafia. Day 5 starts with 1T v 2M v 2W.  Either M or W wins.

So basically, a mislynch today leads to a scum win basically 99.9% of the time.

2. Lynch Mafia. Day 4 starts with 3T v 2M v 2W.

2a. Mislynch.  Day 5 is 1T v 2M v 2W.
Scum wins no matter what.

2b. Lynch WW.  Day 5 is 2T v 2M v 1W.
Mislynch or WW lynch is a M win.  Mafia lynch + No Kill means Day 6 is 2T v 1M v 1W.  Mislynch or WW lynch is an M win, M lynch is a WW win, W lynch is normal lylo on Day 7.

2c. Lynch Mafia. Day 5 is 2T v 1M v 2W.
Mislynch or Mafia lynch means WW wins.  WW lynch + no kill Day 6 is 2T v 1M v 1W.  Mislynch or WW lynch is an M win, M lynch is a WW win, W lynch is normal lylo on Day 7.

2b. Mafia, WW, Mafia, WW, Mafia is a town win (defeating final Mafia in LYLO).
2c. Mafia, Mafia, WW, WW is a town win (defeating final WW in LYLO).

3. Lynch WW.. Day 4 starts with 3T v 3M v 1W.

3a. Mislynch.  M wins.
3b. WW lynch. M wins.
3c. Mafia lynch.  Day 5 starts with 2T v 2M v 1W.  See 2b.

3c. WW, Mafia, Mafia, WW, Mafia is a town win (deafeating final Mafia in LYLO).

[2.71828.....]

Ok, so not quite as dire as I envisioned, but still not good. I will probably write out the numbers for myself in yet another one of these posts because I learn from doing the exercise more than reading it.

[gkrieg13]

Teproc was not on the list twice.  So doesn't he pretty much have to be mafia by now?

And gkrieg.  The two best town players in this game not listed either day?

Clearly my reads have not been the best this game.

[2.71828.....]

Mafia:
Ashersky
J Reggie

Werewolf:
Gkrieg
Jake

Town:
e
Eevee
Iguana

Which leaves me a spot in town and a spot in mafia for teproc/Joseph. Haven't decided which is which. We will see how terrible my reads are after the game

[2.71828.....]

I don't think it makes any sense for j Reggie to be a werewolf, and I think werewolf!ashersky or town!ashersky would not have been caught off guard by the "town loses" statement I made starting the day. I think un-worried mafia!ashersky fits this description more.

[2.71828.....]

I do think gkrieg is scum, but I am scared to lynch him because I don't know how confident I am that he is mafia. I think our best chances of hitting actual mafia fall with j Reggie and ashersky.

Vote: J Reggie

[iguanaiguana]

I do think gkrieg is scum, but I am scared to lynch him because I don't know how confident I am that he is mafia. I think our best chances of hitting actual mafia fall with j Reggie and ashersky.

Vote: J Reggie

I am most confident about Ash being mafia. I don't think he's werewolf either.

Question: Isn't it better to go for a wolf first? I think a lone wolf is a lot less likely to shoot because they will need help from town to lynch the remaining THREE mafia in order to win.

Town needs to lynch 5 scum in a row or have a couple no-kills to win. So lynching someone we think is a wolf seems pretty good to encourage them not to kill us.

If this is stupid reasoning, can someone please explain why to me like I'm a third grader, you know, just to keep the theme going.

[iguanaiguana]

What I am saying to the werewolves is, please let us lynch one of you, so that we can work with you for a while to lynch all the mafia, so that we can lynch you in the end. Thanks.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

So someone explain to me how town can win and then maybe I will keep playing.

Lynch you?  This seems unlike town!you.  It's like a reverse me from M100. 

Plus, listed twice and survived twice?  I guess if you remain "towniest" in the game, the Robz kill was a mafia hunt?  I fully expected to see you dead (no offense).

Vote Ashersky

There's the OMGUS I called!

That's for that stupid hammer

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

I do think gkrieg is scum, but I am scared to lynch him because I don't know how confident I am that he is mafia. I think our best chances of hitting actual mafia fall with j Reggie and ashersky.

Vote: J Reggie

I am most confident about Ash being mafia. I don't think he's werewolf either.

Question: Isn't it better to go for a wolf first? I think a lone wolf is a lot less likely to shoot because they will need help from town to lynch the remaining THREE mafia in order to win.

Town needs to lynch 5 scum in a row or have a couple no-kills to win. So lynching someone we think is a wolf seems pretty good to encourage them not to kill us.

If this is stupid reasoning, can someone please explain why to me like I'm a third grader, you know, just to keep the theme going.

I agree

[Joseph2302]

So my thoughts right now are:

We're in a pretty shit position overall, as most of the scenarios from here don't lead to a town win.
Why on earth did unengaged ash suddenly decide to hammer RR? Seems kind of odd. And if he were town, he should've known a town mislynch was so bad there.

So someone explain to me how town can win and then maybe I will keep playing.

Lynch you?  This seems unlike town!you.  It's like a reverse me from M100. 

Plus, listed twice and survived twice?  I guess if you remain "towniest" in the game, the Robz kill was a mafia hunt?  I fully expected to see you dead (no offense).

Vote Ashersky

There's the OMGUS I called!

That's for that stupid hammer

The hammer was stupid, but be careful with your voting.
Scum have daychat, and they could easily hammer a town. Which would end this game for us.

[2.71828.....]

 please stop calling the hammer stupid. It wasn't

[ashersky]

Fairly certain from a wanting to win the game standpoint, lynching mafia first is the best way to go.

It gives us two outs, versus one.

In a strange twist of fate, one WW could claim and work with town to get to final LYLO with 1 WW and 2 town alive.  (The one that claims would be the default required WW lynch.)

[2.71828.....]

In a strange twist of fate, one WW could claim and work with town to get to final LYLO with 1 WW and 2 town alive.  (The one that claims would be the default required WW lynch.)

About to look at everything for myself but I think absolutely this.  At least, werewolf should claim at L-1.  We don't want to lynch a werewolf today I am fairly certain.

[gkrieg13]

Just a reminder that I have another VLA starting. You should probably just lynch anyone that tries to lynch me.

Also both lynches yesterday were on town, so the hammer doesn't really mean much.

[gkrieg13]

So I think I stopped my last reread at #250, so I'm starting from there.

[gkrieg13]

RR, you can do better than this.

For that matter, the same applies to Robz.

Interesting post from Teproc, knowing the flips now.

[gkrieg13]

Who are the first four again ?

I had said Jake, Faust, e, Robz.

How do you still feel about Jake and e?

[gkrieg13]

Unvote I'm not sure rewarding practically doing nothing is giving the right incentives, but when I asked for clarification from Jake for his vote, what he said was just what I thought town would say (while scum I think would have tried to justify it more).

I'll take the hammer stat.

vote: RR

Interesting no one has commented on this. Ash, you knew it was not a real hammer,  right?

I think I like it it as a play, but ash being aware enough of the vote count but not more present as a player seems a little scummy.

I had also forgotten that ash had fake-hammered RR before as well.  I think that is slightly townie from him.  I haven't really seen anything that is outside ash's town meta, but we should get a wagon going on him, just to make sure.

[gkrieg13]

Jospeh and e are only on the scummy wagons. It is thus proven that they are scum.

That only works if you agree with faust that those are the two scummy wagons....
Although interestingly enough, faust thinks the wagon on him was towny.

Well that goes without saying.

I should add that you're scummier than e because e always joined early when it wasn't really a wagon yet.

I'm scummy because I'm building wagons rather than jumping on them? That kind of makes sense. Although you're wrong about me being scum.

This is a very scummy post from Joseph, saying that the reason why someone is finding you scummy is valid, is a classic scum tell.

[gkrieg13]

Taking another look at the thread since no one seems to be interested in JR, I thought I remembered e being vaguely scummy but not really, though he does need to be more present.

Let's vote: Jake. Completely disappeared after his wagon did.

Teproc is definitely trying to scum hunt, so if he is scum, he is doing a pretty good job.