I'm pretty certain both ash and iguana's analysis are wrong... so let's try it out. Relevant part of the OP:
9. If the game goes on for 3 days and 3 nights without a lynch or nightkill, town wins.
[...]
Endgame:
-The mafia or werewolves win if they obtain a full majority of living players, or if they make up half and at least one protown role is still alive.
-If the mafia and werewolves ever make up equal numbers, with no protown roles left alive, then mafia win. Mafia also win if a day phase begins with one mafia, one werewolf, and one protown.
I'll assume mafia never lists themselves and WWs always assume this as well because it's simpler to theorycraft, but in any situation which leads to a WW or town win, bear in mind mafia can WIFOM there to make it harder to PoE them.
The situation right now: 4T, 3M, 2W.
1) We lynch town=> 3T, 3M, 2W1a) The WWs kill town => 2T, 3M, 2W
If we lynch town again =>
mafia wins.
If we lynch werewolf =>
mafia winsIf we lynch mafia, and:
- werewolves kill town, it's now 1/2/2. Lynching town
mafia wins, lynching mafia
WWs win, lynching WW
mafia wins- werewolves no kill, it's now 2/2/2. Lynching town, WWs have to no kill, so it's 1/2/2... I don't know but I'm pretty sure we don't win that one; either
mafia wins or
WWs win. Lynching mafia,
WWs win. Lynching WWs they nokill so it's 2/2/1, lynching WW means
mafia wins, lynching mafia means WWs nokill (because mafia wins 1/1/1) and we have to lynch WW THEN mafia, and
town wins.
Shortcut for later: 2/2/2 has an out, which is: lynch WW, then mafia, then WW, then mafia.If we noylnch, and:
- werewolves kill town, it's now 1/3/2,
mafia wins- werewolves no-kill, we're back to 1a. Three cycles means
town wins, so werewolves get to play kingmakers (killing means, no killing three times makes town win). Mafia + WWs can get a lynch through though, so they can ally somehow, not sure who wins if that happens, but it's not us.
So... 1a essentially means we either need to lynch Mafia/WW/Mafia/WW/Mafia with WWs always no killing (which is not guaranteed) OR try to go for three cycles and hope WWs kingmake in our favor. Pretty dire, but not an outright loss I suppose.
1b) The WWs no kill: 3T/3M/2W
If we lynch town, it's now 2/3/2. WWs have to nokill, so we're back to 1a).
If we lynch mafia, it's now 3/2/2. WWs kill town, we're at 2/2/2, see that part of 1a. WWs can nokill, but in 2/2/2 they win by lynching mafia, so I don't think they do that so let's skip that part, feel free to do it yourself.
If we lynch WW, it's now 3/3/1. Lynching town or WW means
mafia wins. Lynching mafia, if WWs kill town we're now at 2/2/1, we need to lynch mafia, WWs no kill then we need to lynch WW then we need to lynch mafia. So
3/3/1 (and ultimately 2/2/1) also have an out of: lynch mafia, then mafia, then WW, then mafia.
If we no lynch WWs have to kill eventually or we win, if they kill town it's 2/3/2. They have to nokill now, we're back to 1a or the WWs as kingmakers scenario, with the potential WW/mafia alliance.
Long story short: we're not quite at mylo. Our fate is not entirely in our hand though, because if we mislynch and WWs kill we need to then lynch mafia, and WWs get to choose between 1/2/2 (where they win by lynching mafia and we never win) and 2/2/2 (where they win by lynching mafia and maybe have a shot if they lynch town, but we still can win by lining up scum lynches in the correct order). If they no kill we then need to lynch WW (so they probably don't do that ?) and now we need to line up the scum lynches in the correct order. I think WWs like the first situation better anyway and will kill. There is also the no lynch option which forces WW to either kingmake or ally with mafia... I don't know what the latter looks like but it can't be good for us, and I certainly don't like letting WWs just decide the fate of the game either, so I don't think that's really a plan... not in 1 anyway.
2) We lynch mafia => 4T, 2M, 2WI'm not going to entertain nokill because I hardly see why WWs would oblige us in that way there, so let's make that 3T, 2M, 2W.
2a) We lynch town, it's now 2/2/2, with WW able to make it 1/2/2 if they wish, and we lose, or they nokill and it's good ol' 2/2/2 again.
2b) We lynch mafia, it's now 3/1/2, WWs definitely kill so it's 2/1/2. Lynching town means
WWs win, Llynching mafia means
WWs win, lynching WW puts us at 2/1/1 with WW unable to nokill (or
mafia wins, we then need to lynch WW then lynch mafia.
2c) We lynch WW, it's now 3/1/1. WWs definitely kill so it's 2/1/1. We know this one: we need to lynch WW then mafia.
2d) We nolynch. WWs kill, we're at 2/2/2, we know that one. No lynching is thus terrible in 2).
Once again, a mislynch at any point doesn't quite mean we lose, but it does take our fates partially in WWs hands.
3) We lynch WW => 4T/3M/1WObviously WWs kill, so 3T/3M/1W
3a) We lynch town.
Mafia wins3b) We lynch mafia. 3/2/1. WWs kill town, 2/2/1. We must lynch mafia, WWs can't kill, we must lynch WW and then lynch mafia.
3c) We lynch WW. It's now 4/3. Lynching town means
mafia wins, but every mafia lynch means we can afford a mislynch.
3d) We nolynch. WWs have to nokill... yeah, this is the whole WW kingmakers scenario I really don't like again.
4) We nolynch => 4T, 3M, 2WsWWs kill town... I think we can stop there, nolynching is terrible.
Now all of this is subject to mafia never submitting themselves... things can do much better for us if they get killed at night of course, but if they anticipate getting into one of the town wins situation (so, mostly in 2 and 3), they can start not including themselves (they might have done it already but I don't think so).
Essentially, I don't get the doom and gloom. This is slightly better than normal mylo... granted, we have 5 scum to lynch, but we have a really small lynchpool. We can do it... except if people give up. iguana I think is just depressed town, but I don't get how ash gets this so wrong ? I'm not sure which faction benefits the most from apathetic town here, but I sure don't think it's us.