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Author Topic: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Fourth Quarter)  (Read 201430 times)

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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #925 on: May 23, 2013, 07:37:00 pm »

Here is everything I could find in a quick survey. Sorry if I missed anything

So my original case that I presented:

Quote
12. sudgy - 34 - if there is a lurker lynch, it is probably sudgy. He has had four posts longer than three sentences, and none that were longer than three sentences. One was RVS. One was sheeping my vote on Robz, one was a vote for mail-mi and one talking about mail-mi being at L-2 and not L-1. Basically all of his votes have been weird. His sheep of me onto robz, a weird vote on eevee
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Vote: Eevee for saying something then realizing it was a bad idea to say it, so he said that it was a mistake.
but not because of the case he specifically asked for and said that he missed (eevee was at 3 votes at that point), his vote on mail-mi because he wasn't saying much... compared to who? You?... I would argue that mail-mi has said more (if not a lot more) than you and then he voted again for mail-mi because this:
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Really. Who would choose me as a partner? Did you even see me in the Ninjas game? I suck at scum.
"screamed scum." and then again voted mail-mi again... I think there is a potential lynch that would hit scum here...

add to this that your huge case on mail-mi came immediately after I called you out above for having short posts... This actually is hard to analyze because I think scum and town respond to that sort of pressure, but hey... why wait that long until posting something substantial... I mean I know you were busy... but only after you get called out? I mean anyone should look back and reread sudgy from start to finish. His first 30 posts or so are nothing, no content, very little opinions, sheeping votes and keeping his options open for a lynch.

Robz said this:post was scummy
Quote
(This post starts off in a random direction, but you'll see what I'm getting at here)

I've noticed a couple things about my mafia playstyle:

1. Depending on certain random conditions (availability, who I am in the game, etc.), my playstyle significantly changes.  This is kind of nice usually, as it will make it harder to read me when I'm scum.  But sometimes it isn't (see below)
2. I tend to make decisions without saying them in thread.  This is probably a result of being an introvert.  This usually isn't nice.

Now, this game, I was V/LA for the first bit.  As such, it was harder to get into it later.  This affected my playstyle, as I didn't want to post much.  To fix this, however, I decided to force myself to post.  Whatever I could.  So I usually would just post a little bit at a time.

And what does that look like?  Acti-lurking.  I don't mean to do it, but it happened anyway.

I know that this is kind of a weird and sudden-ish defense, but I wanted to get this out there.
lio found this post of yours to be suspicious due to the timing:
Quote
Gah, Vote: Robz888.  This is getting kind of annoying, but his recent posts have been a bit scummier and it seems more people are willing to lynch him than others.

Also, xeiron, we're going to need you to vote soon anyway.  We need to get a lynch somehow.

Robz found this suspicious:
Quote
I have an idea, I don't know how good it is.  We need a lynch.  Quickly.  From the vote count, me, mail-mi, and yuma all seem like they might be lynched.  This isn't good when we're a day from the deadline.

I don't know if this is a good idea or not, but maybe we should have Robz pick who to lynch and we lynch that person.  I can see why this could be a bad idea, but we need to avoid a no lynch.

Now, could someone actually say a case on me so that I can respond to it?  All I can say at the moment is that I'm town, and nothing else because I don't see anything wrong (other than things I've already mentioned and switching from mail-mi and Robz, and I only did that because I didn't want to no lynch).  I would like you who think I'm scum to actually say why you think I'm scum.  That's a lot more helpful than saying I'm scum.

I don't know if that is everything, but I imagine it is most of it? There have been a lot of votes on you w/o explanation... something I don't really like, but I think people realize that if we don't get a lynch tonight we will be in a bad spot tomorrow. I find you scummy and relatively likely to flip mafia.
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sudgy

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #926 on: May 23, 2013, 07:44:35 pm »

Well, I already said the Eevee vote was for pressure, the acti-lurking thing was talked about in the second quote, which Robz said was scummy (I was just defending myself there).  My vote on Robz was trying to get a lynch in before it was too late.  And, as I said, I said the last thing because Robz is the IC.

If this is the best that you have, and you think it is enough to lynch me, go ahead.  It is D1 after all.  But know that it isn't a good idea, as I am town.  Also, remember, a no lynch would be better than a town lynch (especially with an even number of players).

When I flip town, look at the people who voted for me who never said anything previously about being suspicious of me.  And mail-mi.
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #927 on: May 23, 2013, 08:09:26 pm »

Alright, I'm going to look at Sudgy's game to this point.  I'm going to just jot down my thoughts here.

Sudgy is quiet for the start of the game, but was V/LA at that point, so that's not an issue.

I think we should do a pop's style quiz of reads later in the day.  I can see mgp's point and that we maybe shouldn't do it right away.

Here, Sudgy thinks we should do pop-style quizzes.  A fair enough request.  However, he never posts his own, which is a little weird to me.  If you think something's a good idea, you should do it yourself.  Perhaps he was looking for other people's reads so he could safely get on an uncontroversial wagon?  His next post was a vote on mail-mi.  Between his request and his vote, mail-mi was first on Eevee's suspicion list, and fifth on lio's.  Eevee and Robz had also voted for mail-mi in this gap, so it's quite a sheepy vote:


He also drops in the fact that he was V/LA for a while, and quite busy.  Everyone knew that already, and he keeps telling us.  It may be completely innocent, or it may be an excuse.  I can't say.

In this point, he continues to vote on mail-mi, and says he had thought about voting Robz.

Yuma is the first person to accuse Sudgy of anything (pretty much that Sudgy fits the bill for a lurker scum).

(This post starts off in a random direction, but you'll see what I'm getting at here)

I've noticed a couple things about my mafia playstyle:

1. Depending on certain random conditions (availability, who I am in the game, etc.), my playstyle significantly changes.  This is kind of nice usually, as it will make it harder to read me when I'm scum.  But sometimes it isn't (see below)
2. I tend to make decisions without saying them in thread.  This is probably a result of being an introvert.  This usually isn't nice.

Now, this game, I was V/LA for the first bit.  As such, it was harder to get into it later.  This affected my playstyle, as I didn't want to post much.  To fix this, however, I decided to force myself to post.  Whatever I could.  So I usually would just post a little bit at a time.

And what does that look like?  Acti-lurking.  I don't mean to do it, but it happened anyway.

I know that this is kind of a weird and sudden-ish defense, but I wanted to get this out there.
 

What?  I don't understand this at all.  Are you trying to excuse your defense?  Yuma had voted for you 10 posts ago.! Defending yourself isn't weird at all, nor is it at all sudden!  If you're town, it's what you should be doing, because we want to kill scum, not you!  This behavior feels very off to me, and gave me the same feel I got from repeated posts saying you were busy.  These are things you shouldn't have to say, they felt forced, and it seemed like you were creating excuses that were unnecessary for you to make.

It's also noteworthy that despite not being around much early, other than a little bit of pressure on eevee early (I didn't have much of an issue with this, although certain people like SB found it a little scummy), Sudgy was focused on both Mail-Mi and Robz from a fairly early time.  I'm not sure what to make of this, but it's something to keep in mind.

Throughout the Robz/Mail-mi decision (when it looked like the lynch was going to be one or the other), Sudgy is around and posting, but doesn't make a concerted effort to dig for information.  It looks like his main goal is getting one of the two lynches through, particularly a lynch of Robz.  Again, he may be mistaken town, but I would like to think a town would dig deeper.  For example, we have this:

Gah, Vote: Robz888.  This is getting kind of annoying, but his recent posts have been a bit scummier and it seems more people are willing to lynch him than others.

Also, xeiron, we're going to need you to vote soon anyway.  We need to get a lynch somehow.

This is nearly two hours before the soft deadline.  Vague, and not asking any questions.  We still have plenty of time before the soft deadline, but it looks like Sudgy has no plan to find out more about Robz and Mail-Mi.  He just wants to make sure a lynch goes through.  At this point, I think he should be digging more than he is if he were town.  He made no effort to find answers through this period.

The big red flag here is:  He didn't hammer Robz, or switch to him earlier.  He had gone back and forth between Robz and Mail-Mi earlier, and was online when Robz was at 5 votes and Mail-Mi 3.  I think he could've switched here without much suspicion, and let someone else hammer.  But he didn't.  If he we still think he's scum, we need to answer why this is.

Recently, he posted this:

I don't know if this is a good idea or not, but maybe we should have Robz pick who to lynch and we lynch that person.  I can see why this could be a bad idea, but we need to avoid a no lynch.

Again, this seems sheepy.  "Let's just get a lynch through, I'll trust Robz to make the decision"??  No, if you're town, your goal shouldn't be to "get any lynch through."  It should be to get a correct lynch through!
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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #928 on: May 23, 2013, 08:09:48 pm »

Overall, I have two main issues with Sudgy (and there are multiple examples for both).

1.  Throughout the entire game, you seemed to make excuses for your behavior that weren't necessary.  You repeatedly mentioned that you were/had been busy or V/LA, well past the point of everyone knowing it.  You excused your defense from Yuma, despite it coming at a completely reasonable time.  Why?  To me, I lean more towards a scum trying to seem artificially towny than a townie informing everyone of what is happening.  You came off as over-the-top about it.

2. You have been extremely sheepy.  You have held views, and voted often, but I haven't seen you yet do your own research.  Your priority to me has seemed to be to get a lynch through rather than trying to get a lynch correct.  The only views you have had are ones that are popular.

You seem to have attempted to cultivate an image that is under-the-radar.  You haven't made any original cases, brought nothing new to the table, and yet, when you deviated from average behavior (posting less than usual), you were over the top about rationalizing it.  Your first defense to Yuma's accusation came with an apology for defending yourself, for crying out loud!

There is one question that I have for people who support a Sudgy lynch:  Why wasn't he on Robz's bandwagon earlier?  He could have switched over when Robz was on 4 or 5 votes, but didn't.  Do we have a good explanation for this?
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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #929 on: May 23, 2013, 08:11:56 pm »

There's something I meant to mention in my first post after I double-checked to make sure it was true, but I forgot:

After you suggested making pop-quizzes, and others responded, you never did one of your own?  Why not?  If you thought it was such a good idea, why didn't you?  Either you're scum,and you just wanted to get some popular opinions to sheep onto, or you're town and just never got around to it.
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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #930 on: May 23, 2013, 08:13:01 pm »

I will be comfortable hammering Sudgy after he has a chance to defend himself.   But I would like to hear others weigh in on my earlier question:

Why wasn't he on Robz's bandwagon earlier?  He could have switched over when Robz was on 4 or 5 votes, but didn't.  Do we have a good explanation for this?
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #931 on: May 23, 2013, 08:35:24 pm »

Why wasn't he on Robz's bandwagon earlier?  He could have switched over when Robz was on 4 or 5 votes, but didn't.  Do we have a good explanation for this?

Well.... he was at one point
Quote
Gah, Vote: Robz888.  This is getting kind of annoying, but his recent posts have been a bit scummier and it seems more people are willing to lynch him than others.

Also, xeiron, we're going to need you to vote soon anyway.  We need to get a lynch somehow.

At this point Robz is at 5 votes. I put him to L-1 and then after a bit sudgy backed off and went back to mail-mi. So the question is would scum do that or would they continue to let the wagon ride out. I don't know. I think that scum might want to get off a wagon that they knew contained town, especially if there appears to be support elsewhere. It allows that player to still be lynched, but that mafia member can be off wagon (in the often perceived less scummy position).

So to answer your question. Why wasn't he on the robz bandwagon earlier? The answer is that he was on it... and he left it and then offered to get back on it. And when it became apparent that the only way robz could be lynched was to join it (and at that point I think if robz hadn't come in with his PR claim for whatever reason and sudgy had hammered, he wouldn't have necessarily been scummy for doing so, because we were pretty unanimous that we needed a lynch to happen) was to offer to hammer.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #932 on: May 23, 2013, 08:43:58 pm »

what do people think of the VT claim?

also, sudgy, if you are actually town, make sure to make a complete read list before you are lynched.
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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #933 on: May 23, 2013, 08:48:22 pm »

what do people think of the VT claim?

also, sudgy, if you are actually town, make sure to make a complete read list before you are lynched.

Not surprising.  Assuming there are 3 town PRs, out of the 11 people who aren't Robz, there are 2 PRs and 3 Mafia.

The Mafia would all assuredly claim VT at this point, right?  (Although, the fact that we don't know the town PRs makes it more likely to claim a PR.  In a game where we know all the PRs, a false claim will be immediately contradicted.  Here that's not the case.)  So I guess it's not 100% sure that the mafia would claim VT, but I still think it's very likely a mafia would claim VT.

That leaves a 9/11 (slightly lower, maybe) chance of a random person claiming VT, assuming that the PRs would claim their PR rather than VT (Is this the case?  I'm not familiar with how claims normally go down, other than an IC claim, which is obviously different).  So it's hardly surprising to see a VT claim, and I don't think much of it either way.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #934 on: May 23, 2013, 08:51:24 pm »

why do you assume 3 town PRs?

scum are more inclined to claim PR because they wish to either:

A) get people thinking that since they might be telling the truth it is too risky to lynch them - you don't want to lose a power role
B) draw a counterclaim, so that they can nightkill that player. This is unlikely in this case because scum already has a good NK target: robz.
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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #935 on: May 23, 2013, 08:54:54 pm »

Robz was listed for both Yuma and Sudgy I think

Also, Yuma are you saying in that last post that he doesn't act scummy with regarded to hisrobz positioning?

The VT claim kindof bothers me.  For one, I would have expected him to use the flavor a little...but 2, what else could he claim if he's scum? PR would immediately know he's lying. Seems like Vt is safest thing to claim as scum...
I think ive seen enough to drop the hammer.  Anyone oppose?
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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #936 on: May 23, 2013, 08:57:41 pm »

I don't know why I assumed 3.  I guess I was thinking # of PR = # of mafia.  I don't know if this is true or not.

And I guess you're right about mafia wanting to claim a PR.  I was thinking that a mafia wouldn't want to get counterclaimed, and at worst get a mislynch than a correct lynch the one day, and was thinking a mafia wouldn't want to trade 1 mafia for 1 villager.  But they get two nightkills in that period, so it'd be more like 1 mafia for 3 villagers, I guess?  Plus, if you're about to be lynched, anything is a whole let better than simply letting a mafia get lynched.

I guess it's much more significant than I was initially assuming.  But it's still my first claim I've ever been a part of (I'm not really counting Robz's reveal), so I'm not 100% sure what to make of it.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #937 on: May 23, 2013, 09:01:52 pm »

Why can't scum fakeclaim? They can claim pretty much anything. Sure they might be counterclaimed, but there's no guarrantee that there isn't more than 1 of a PR. Even if they do get caught they can out a PR.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #938 on: May 23, 2013, 09:03:21 pm »

you're right that a 1-1 trade is bad for scum. But if sudgy is scum and gets lynched, that's a 0-1 trade for scum.
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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #939 on: May 23, 2013, 09:05:00 pm »

Yeah, I see what you're saying now, and I think you're right that a scum would have incentive to claim a PR.  But if a scum knows we know that, he would want to claim a VT, at least occasionally.

I guess this weakens my read on Sudgy slightly.  Are you the same way?
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #940 on: May 23, 2013, 09:07:57 pm »

agree that scum should claim VT sometimes. VT claim does make me a bit nervous, but I still like this lynch.
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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #941 on: May 23, 2013, 09:08:53 pm »

Yeah, I see what you're saying now, and I think you're right that a scum would have incentive to claim a PR.  But if a scum knows we know that, he would want to claim a VT, at least occasionally.

I guess this weakens my read on Sudgy slightly.  Are you the same way?
It's times like this it would be helpful for robz to be a little more helpful.....
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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #942 on: May 23, 2013, 09:12:51 pm »

Eh.  I think Robz was helpful the last time he posted.  I guess that was a while ago, but if he's not on, you can't hold that against him.

Quite a few people in this game are also very busy due to the other game going on.  I believe that Yuma, mcmc, Eevee, Robz, and mail-mi all are in Pirates, and from my view it looks like it's occupying them a great deal.

How do you feel about the claim, SB?  Still willing to hammer?
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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #943 on: May 23, 2013, 09:13:15 pm »

Oh, I missed your post where you talked about it.  My bad.
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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #944 on: May 23, 2013, 09:14:28 pm »

No, I don't think you should hammer SB.  I'd like to have Sudgy have a chance to respond, now that I made it clear why I'm voting for him.
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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #945 on: May 23, 2013, 09:21:49 pm »

Oh, I missed your post where you talked about it.  My bad.
No problem. Yes I still think it's a good lynch but wanted to make sure IC still thinks so. I won't be on probably when deadline arrives so I'm hoping to hear a bit more first.  If I'm not on are you willing to hammer still?
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nkirbit

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #946 on: May 23, 2013, 09:33:32 pm »

Yeah, I most likely will be.  I am now, and unless Sudgy has a very convincing defense, I will be.

I just want to give Sudgy his fair chance.  He was frustrated because he wasn't sure why people were voting for him (Which I think is fair.. it wasn't entirely clear) and thus didn't have a way to defend himself.  I do want to give him that chance.  And get his reads.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #947 on: May 23, 2013, 09:45:08 pm »

ooo yes, reads. Don't hammer until he's given those for sure. We have tommorow...
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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #948 on: May 23, 2013, 10:14:36 pm »

Okay, I'm finally back.  Heck of a morning.

What I wanted to put out there was a note on how Robz being an IC helps us, and how we should treat his posts.  This is IC theory stuff.

Robz's role gives us two things: assurance that everything he says can be trusted as coming from town, and one less person to suspect when we're scum hunting.

I think it is important to remember that while Robz's being an IC gives us town members MORE information, he actually has LESS information than the rest of us.

Out of twelve players, I now know that two of us are town.  That means I'm only looking at 10 players total, with 3/10 being mafia.  At worst, I have a 30% chance at choosing correctly.  For Robz, he only knows one person is town, so he's still at 3/11.  So, less information.

I think it helps for us to remember it that way.
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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #949 on: May 23, 2013, 10:14:58 pm »

sudgy's claim and responses to pressure have not been convincing to me.  I'm good with a hammer whenever.
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