I still have 3 more pages to go through and reply to things... but I'm heading out for work again and want to get these thoughts out here first.
I believe we have to go with e or iguana today. It's likely 1 of them are scum (not possible 0 of them, otherwise e's claim makes no sense... slightly possibly it's 2, but I'll comment on that at the end). So if we pick right, we are in a much better situation, and likely have one more mis-exile if we mess up in the next day or two. If we pick wrong, we are basically in triple lylo.
Option 1:
Let's say we vote out iguana today. Let's take e's claim at face value, and vote out the "found scum".
(a) If iguana's scum, great, we got one! But we don't know if it's an iguana/e gambit to get e town-cred or if e is actually the 1-shot cop he claimed. That's okay though because we get another set of night actions (potentially, if any left) and another day to figure it out, and likely have a mis-exile available still (barring a wrong vig kill or something odd like that). I'd like to, in this situation, give e town-cred and assume he's correct, and not setting up the gambit for the win... but discussions and future flips would help confirm or deny that.
(b) If iguana's town, then we know e set him up. We exile e tomorrow, but we're at triple lylo then (and double lylo after exiling e). Not great, but at least we have a guarantee that e is scum.
Option 2:
Let's say we believe e is scum and determined it's time to make the bold scum move... frame iguana. We vote out e today instead.
(a) If e is town, then we're in the triple lylo, but we know iguana is obviously scum then, vote him out next day, and are effectively at double lylo.
(b) If e is scum, I think we're in the same situation as 1.(a) above... great we got one, but we don't know if they pulled a gambit (and iguana is also scum), or if e was the only one trying to get a townie exiled with his claim and push for triple lylo. In this situation, if we flip e as scum, again, I'd be inclined to think iguana is town... I just don't think I can believe that bold of a move would be made this early, when scum is playing a perfect game so far.
I was hoping running through these things would make one option revealed as better than the others. But it looks like mirror images, unfortunately. That means we have to go with our guts, and see if we feel this move is more likely town!e or scum!e.
I haven't decided yet. I'm leaning toward scum!e, just based on timing, the vague claim, and a few other little things. But I'm not putting a vote there yet.
PPE: 2