Wow, this is good.
@UoS, that's excellent targeting on your part to give three clear results, plus yourself. That means if there is a MU team at all, from my perspective it's got to be three out of four of EFHW, raerae, Eddie and MiX. That seems really unlikely.
The PoE for catching Shraeye's buddies looks strong. With faust full-IC, and EFHW and me definitely-not-Maquis, there's not a lot of places left for Maquis votes to be hiding in the early-game wagons. The possible Maquis players are UoS, WCD, MiX, Ash, Eddie, and raerae (6 people in total, and two Maquis between them).
I still think raerae is an unlikely scum-buddy for Shraeye, because she was voting for him quite consistently in D1, then voting alongside him in D2 on a pretty short MiX wagon, which is not something two scums typically do, at least in all the wagon-gazing I do in non-multiball setups.
If we assume that raerae isn't Maquis, then the game state at #750 looks interesting. At that point, 4/6 of the not-definitely-non-Maquis are all voting EFHW (who may still technically have been LaLight at that point, but my vote list says EFHW, so let's roll with that). The two off-wagon are Ash and raerae. It seems unlikely that all three will be on a wagon that's relatively small in the scheme of the overall game, so I think looking for an off-wagon scum is reasonable, and Ash is the best fit for that.
WCD is clearly a likely candidate, given that EFHW cannot herself be Maquis.. so either e really had a five-towns-on-town wagon that the Maquis just didn't want to join for some reason, or WCD was the Maquis that joined. She was also an early supporter of the Robz wagon. Either that got to nine-towns-on-town all by itself, or one of WCD and UoS was an early supporter.