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Author Topic: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! FORSAKEN WIN!  (Read 206241 times)

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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #1150 on: April 10, 2014, 06:10:51 am »

So everyone who said that it was important that we get a flip and not no-lynch... what did we learn from the sudgy lynch?

I'll wait...

Also this was never addressed. In a few days I am going to go back and call out everyone who said that a flip was so essential to get information from. I have yet to see said information to find scum.

I'll wait...

After that I will start looking heavily at those who voted for this reason and will probably vote in that area unless something tangible is presented.

By lynching sudgy we had a chance of him killing scum. (in contrast to no lynching, we are guaranteed that no scum dies)
We learnt that sudgy was town. That means we are not mislynching him later in the game.

We learnt that Twistedarcher, Archetype, A Drowned Kernel, AndrewisFTTW, yuma, ashersky and Jimmmmm was all willing to lynch Sudgy, and since Sudgy was town, there is no reason why scum would want to stop that lynch from happening.
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1151 on: April 10, 2014, 06:36:35 am »

That is why it would ease my mind if you shoot someone today.
I would also like to hear from everyone. How many days should we wait before yuma have to prove his claim or be lynched?

I am not going to shoot to ease your mind, nor will I shoot under threat of a lynch. I will not risk shooting someone more pro-town than me over having you lynch me and lose my mixed utility role.

I don't value vigs that highly, especially in a RMM game. I would be more willing to die than be dictated when to shoot.

There is an easy solution.
we set a soft deadline at. April 14 at 8:00 PM (1day, 3.30 h before deadline)
When we are about to lynch somebody (they are on L-1 and someone announces intent to hammer), we do not lynch, but instead you shoot them. Then we can then either no lynch, or lynch someone else.

Then you get to confirm your claim, without having to decide by yourself on someone to kill, and without giving scum more influence on the choosing than they get during a normal lynch.

Do you agree to this plan, Yuma?
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1152 on: April 10, 2014, 06:42:10 am »

From the list of alive people:

1. Archetype
2. yuma
3. XerxesPraelor
4. xeiron
6. Twistedarcher
7. Witherweaver
10. A Drowned Kernel
11. AndrewisFTTW
12. Jimmmmm
13. ashersky

Removing Xeiron, Witherweaver and Twistedarcher:

1. Archetype
2. yuma
3. XerxesPraelor
10. A Drowned Kernel
11. AndrewisFTTW
12. Jimmmmm
13. ashersky
[/quote]

Andrewis is there because Yuma is there (Yumas defence of Andrew D1 is really sucpicios if Yuma should flip scum). Yuma is there because he haven't shoot someone yet.
If Yuma shoot someone today, both will be removed.
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1153 on: April 10, 2014, 06:51:11 am »

Yuma, do you think scum will keep you around for another day? If I'm not lynched today, I can see scum keeping me around another day so I get lynched D3.

I would not be suprised if both of you are left alive one more night.

Two kills N1 looks like we have a serial killer in the game.
A SK is a bigger threat for mafia than any single town member, just as the mafia is a greater threat for the SK than town is. This means that they will probably be trying to kill each other, instead of Yuma and Andrew.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1154 on: April 10, 2014, 01:28:57 pm »

Wait, Andrew, why would you be surprised that Yuma lived and not that you lived?

Gaaah I'm so confused in Mafia right now.

I'm not surprised I'm alive. Ash can endlessly push for my lynch and the longer I'm alive, the more it seems like I'm scum due to my claim.

But you were convinced he was just misguided town yesterday.  And you posted this today:

Why would me being alive incriminate ash?

You really confuse me dude :(
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1155 on: April 10, 2014, 01:43:22 pm »

Yesterday is yesterday. Things change as new information and cases are brought to light. Arch posted his thoughts on ash, I went back and read mostly everything (which took a long time) and formulated my current opinion and case based on what I and others have found.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1156 on: April 10, 2014, 01:56:36 pm »

Yesterday is yesterday. Things change as new information and cases are brought to light. Arch posted his thoughts on ash, I went back and read mostly everything (which took a long time) and formulated my current opinion and case based on what I and others have found.

Okay maybe I need to clarify.  When I asked "Wait, Andrew, why would you be surprised that Yuma lived and not that you lived?" I was referring to the fact that you stated:

I was expecting yuma to be targeted for a NK and maybe doctored but I guess with two NKs he probably wasn't even targeted?  Or is there a good reason scum wouldn't target yuma for a NKS?

Here you say that you expected Yuma to have died during the night.  So you expected this before seeing what happened during the night.  Which means you were still of "yesterday" opinion, which I had thought was that you thought Ash was town.  Which means you wouldn't have been of the opinion that  "Ash can endlessly push for my lynch and the longer I'm alive, the more it seems like I'm scum due to my claim."

It makes sense for you to be of this opinion now, but not during the night.  So what I was asking was, why were you expecting Yuma to die during the night and not yourself?  Because your role seems kind of powerful. 
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1157 on: April 10, 2014, 02:03:10 pm »

I didn't think my role was as powerful as his but reading everything that has been said about his role since then has me convinced dayvig not as strong as I thought.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1158 on: April 10, 2014, 02:14:17 pm »

I didn't think my role was as powerful as his but reading everything that has been said about his role since then has me convinced dayvig not as strong as I thought.

Okay.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1159 on: April 10, 2014, 02:20:01 pm »

Yuma, do you think scum will keep you around for another day? If I'm not lynched today, I can see scum keeping me around another day so I get lynched D3.

I would not be suprised if both of you are left alive one more night.

Two kills N1 looks like we have a serial killer in the game.
A SK is a bigger threat for mafia than any single town member, just as the mafia is a greater threat for the SK than town is. This means that they will probably be trying to kill each other, instead of Yuma and Andrew.

Do all forms of "SK" have the same winning condition?  Is it possible to have a night killer that has a different winning condition?
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1160 on: April 10, 2014, 03:09:38 pm »

Yuma, do you think scum will keep you around for another day? If I'm not lynched today, I can see scum keeping me around another day so I get lynched D3.

I would not be suprised if both of you are left alive one more night.

Two kills N1 looks like we have a serial killer in the game.
A SK is a bigger threat for mafia than any single town member, just as the mafia is a greater threat for the SK than town is. This means that they will probably be trying to kill each other, instead of Yuma and Andrew.

Do all forms of "SK" have the same winning condition?  Is it possible to have a night killer that has a different winning condition?

A third party with a nightkill, but with a different winning condition, is not illeagal in any way, but really unusual. I think Jimmmmm was a SK/survivor hybrid in Lord Of The Rings 2. Other than that I do not know if it has been done before on this site.

Not sure if Serial Killer is defined as "third party with a night kill" or "third party with a win condition of killing everyone else", so the naming could be discussed. Not that the name matters, though.

Are there any other win conditions you think would make sense in this game?
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1161 on: April 10, 2014, 03:16:44 pm »

Yuma, do you think scum will keep you around for another day? If I'm not lynched today, I can see scum keeping me around another day so I get lynched D3.

I would not be suprised if both of you are left alive one more night.

Two kills N1 looks like we have a serial killer in the game.
A SK is a bigger threat for mafia than any single town member, just as the mafia is a greater threat for the SK than town is. This means that they will probably be trying to kill each other, instead of Yuma and Andrew.

Do all forms of "SK" have the same winning condition?  Is it possible to have a night killer that has a different winning condition?

A third party with a nightkill, but with a different winning condition, is not illeagal in any way, but really unusual. I think Jimmmmm was a SK/survivor hybrid in Lord Of The Rings 2. Other than that I do not know if it has been done before on this site.

Not sure if Serial Killer is defined as "third party with a night kill" or "third party with a win condition of killing everyone else", so the naming could be discussed. Not that the name matters, though.

Are there any other win conditions you think would make sense in this game?

I don't really know much about win conditions other than what I'm reading on the Mafia wiki.  So mechanics wise, I don't have much of an idea.  Flavor wise.. I'm not really sure.  I need to get a better idea of what conditions there are.  I remember reading something about winning if you lynch someone (I looked it up, Lyncher), and it would make sense for a certain character.  (Not sure if I should reveal the scenario or not.)  So, I guess there would be some, but I'd have to go look at all the possibilities and see if I can make them make sense.  I have no idea on the likelihood that they would actually appear, though.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1162 on: April 10, 2014, 03:19:58 pm »

But is that really worth doing?  If what you said was correct, then we shouldn't focus on third party, right? 

So I guess I wanted to know if there were cases where we would want to focus on finding the third party. 
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1163 on: April 10, 2014, 03:45:26 pm »

But is that really worth doing?  If what you said was correct, then we shouldn't focus on third party, right? 

So I guess I wanted to know if there were cases where we would want to focus on finding the third party.

I do not think it is worth doing. and yes, I think finding mafia is higher priority than SK hunting. Not the least because we know we are up against a scumteam, while a serial killer is just a possibility. There are plenty of town roles that could cause an extra death.
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1164 on: April 10, 2014, 07:45:09 pm »

There is an easy solution.
we set a soft deadline at. April 14 at 8:00 PM (1day, 3.30 h before deadline)
When we are about to lynch somebody (they are on L-1 and someone announces intent to hammer), we do not lynch, but instead you shoot them. Then we can then either no lynch, or lynch someone else.

Then you get to confirm your claim, without having to decide by yourself on someone to kill, and without giving scum more influence on the choosing than they get during a normal lynch.

Do you agree to this plan, Yuma?

No.

I WILL NOT be intimidated into shooting if I do not think it is an opportune time to shoot.
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1165 on: April 10, 2014, 07:45:34 pm »

I see sooooo little scum hunting going on...
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #1166 on: April 10, 2014, 07:52:03 pm »

I'll wait...

I think we should lynch sudgy Today. He's probably scum. Oh wait, we did that already! Now we can make progress towards lynching actual scum instead of giving them a free kill and then doing what we would have done anyway.

We would not have--or at least should not have lynched sudgy today if he was alive. He became a strong townread and ended up being a lynch out of convenience.

Look everyone that is trying to get me to understand the principle of "Why No Lynch Is Bad" I get it. I am not a mindless idiot here. I understand this fully.

What I AM SAYING is this...

That yesterday we had three options (well four...)
1. lynch sudgy
2. no lynch
(3. lynch Andrew)
4. lynch someone else

I tried pretty hard to get the wagon onto somewhere else. I was curtailed everytime I tried and people's justifications were that 1. we didn't have time and 2. needed to make sure we got a lynch for information.

I call bullcrap on the first one, we had plenty of time. Town and scum interfered in new wagons. Because of blackmail I joined in to lynch sudgy (over Andrew) and now I am asking people to actually use and apply the information that we supposedly got. I am not saying we didn't get any information I am saying that people justified a lynch and justified not trying to get a lynch elsewhere based off this principle and have yet to go back and pull up anything substantial from it.

So yeah... that is what I am asking... why are people talking about my dayvig so heavily and speculating about random double SK theories when there is supposed to be concrete information from the lynch that people used to justify a lynch. That is what I am asking for... the information. I haven't seen it yet or seen it applied to finding a good lynch for today.

If you are going to lynch for information make sure you dig up the information the next day and apply it. Otherwise why did you lynch?
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1167 on: April 11, 2014, 01:16:57 am »

vote: yuma
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Jimmmmm

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1168 on: April 11, 2014, 02:07:09 am »

Vote: xeiron
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1169 on: April 11, 2014, 02:31:33 am »

What I see is yuma, doing exactly what he would do if he was lying scum.
Talking up his own credibility, and refusing to prove his claim.
On the other hand, if he was town, I would expect some understanding from him on the nedd of verifying his claim.
I think yuma is scum by now.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1170 on: April 11, 2014, 02:38:14 am »

What I see is yuma, doing exactly what he would do if he was lying scum.
Talking up his own credibility, and refusing to prove his claim.
On the other hand, if he was town, I would expect some understanding from him on the nedd of verifying his claim.
I think yuma is scum by now.

It's Day 2. You really think that, regardless of how many shots he has and any other aspects to his role, that the optimal strategy for a Town Dayvig is to shoot someone in the first 2 Days? I mean yeah, yuma will have to shoot someone by the end of the game, or he will look incredibly scummy, and there will come a point at which I will strongly advocate lynching him based on not seeing any evidence of his verifiable claim. But it's certainly too early for that.

What kind of "understanding" would you expect from Town yuma?
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1171 on: April 11, 2014, 09:17:36 am »

What I see is yuma, doing exactly what he would do if he was lying scum.
Talking up his own credibility, and refusing to prove his claim.
On the other hand, if he was town, I would expect some understanding from him on the nedd of verifying his claim.
I think yuma is scum by now.

What if it's only one-shot or two-shot?  And even if it isn't.. unless he has a good read, it's still more likely that he'll hit town than scum, right?  Shooting to verify a claim early seems dangerous.  And even if you're right, is it necessary to go after him now instead of later?  That feels very high risk, high reward to me.  He'd still have partners if he's on the scum team.  Why not find those instead?  And it could give clues to Yuma's alignment for later, and the longer he doesn't shoot, the more people are going to suspect him.

I guess in this scenario (where Yuma is scum), the big concern is the possible situation where he actually has a dayvig power and can use it as scum for a win.  But that can only happen when (num scum) = (numtown), during the day.  If there are more town than scum, Yuma would likely get lynched (unless he has a good cover) and so it would be a one-for-one trade.  The more I think about it, I think scum!Yuma is much more likely to want to shoot early than late.  If he shoots early (and going with the town's advice), he has a much better cover, because it was more likely for him to hit town than scum anyway.

Okay so I don't think that is the big concern.  Your concern is that he's scum and lied to gain assured town status.  That still seems like a big gambit to me, and I still think it would be more productive to find the other scum than to go after Yuma, because his guilt becomes increasingly more likely the longer he does not shoot.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1172 on: April 11, 2014, 09:22:54 am »

And by the argument before, if he was third party, he'd be wanting to find scum, too.  I think in every case it's better to hold off on Yuma, unless he does something obviously scummy.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1173 on: April 11, 2014, 09:41:11 am »

Okay I'm starting to see the benefit of having an Ash-type player around.  It's like the game stagnates when he's not yelling at someone.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1174 on: April 11, 2014, 09:45:42 am »

Doing some rereading.

Xeiron, it's hard to reconcile these two extremes:

Would some kind of DaySK work?
Vote: jimm
For implying that yuma is someone that we might want to lynch.

What I see is yuma, doing exactly what he would do if he was lying scum.
Talking up his own credibility, and refusing to prove his claim.
On the other hand, if he was town, I would expect some understanding from him on the nedd of verifying his claim.
I think yuma is scum by now.

vote: yuma
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