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Author Topic: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! FORSAKEN WIN!  (Read 206232 times)

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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1100 on: April 09, 2014, 02:41:21 pm »

I'm going to be super suspicious of Yuma if he doesn't shoot today. I can explain why but it'll be giving some of my role away.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1101 on: April 09, 2014, 07:27:36 pm »

When's deadline here?
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Jorbles

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #1102 on: April 09, 2014, 07:36:24 pm »

When's deadline here?

Day 2 ends on April 15 at 11:30 PM FT.

Apologies for not including deadline in vote counts.
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1103 on: April 09, 2014, 07:38:33 pm »

I'm going to be super suspicious of Yuma if he doesn't shoot today. I can explain why but it'll be giving some of my role away.

Well be prepared to explain, I am not shooting until I have a pretty good reason to... i.e. I will not be shooting into the dark based solely off my reads... which is to say that I am not compulsive today
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1104 on: April 09, 2014, 07:41:52 pm »

That is why it would ease my mind if you shoot someone today.
I would also like to hear from everyone. How many days should we wait before yuma have to prove his claim or be lynched?

I am not going to shoot to ease your mind, nor will I shoot under threat of a lynch. I will not risk shooting someone more pro-town than me over having you lynch me and lose my mixed utility role.

I don't value vigs that highly, especially in a RMM game. I would be more willing to die than be dictated when to shoot.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1105 on: April 09, 2014, 07:42:18 pm »

I'm going to be super suspicious of Yuma if he doesn't shoot today. I can explain why but it'll be giving some of my role away.

Well be prepared to explain, I am not shooting until I have a pretty good reason to... i.e. I will not be shooting into the dark based solely off my reads... which is to say that I am not compulsive today

If you weren't you, looking at you with this claim, what chance do you think there is that you would be lying about the entire thing?
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1106 on: April 09, 2014, 07:47:30 pm »

I'm going to be super suspicious of Yuma if he doesn't shoot today. I can explain why but it'll be giving some of my role away.

Well be prepared to explain, I am not shooting until I have a pretty good reason to... i.e. I will not be shooting into the dark based solely off my reads... which is to say that I am not compulsive today

If you weren't you, looking at you with this claim, what chance do you think there is that you would be lying about the entire thing?

2% yesterday. 4% today. 8% Day3 32% Day4 etc etc etc
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1107 on: April 09, 2014, 08:02:14 pm »

I mean... really it is a silly proposition that people are putting forth.

Really the only one that makes sense is me being a DayVig SK--which would be cool--but would require:
1. there to be a SK - possible given the pre-game info
2. mail-mi to come up with the role - possible but unlikely given no one else has thought of it before
3. me to think that claiming right out of the gates was the best way to do it and more important
4. not use a shot day1 and indicate that I am not using a shot today
5. the presence of a NK (ok, yes this could still hold true that if I use a Dayshot I lose my NK)

So there is the possibility. I think pretty unlikely off the bat. Yes the longer I stay alive (and other mafia/SK aren't flipped) the more likely something is fishy is up, but still drastically low.

Because for me to be doing what xeiron suggested would require me to claim w/o knowing if another player had said role. I get what xeiron is saying that I would basically be sacrificing myself  for chaos and semi-IC status and 2 or 3 days of trying as hard as possible to not get my teammates lynched. All that sounds ok, but would require me to risk being counter claimed. Dayvigs aren't the most common role in the world, but I would say we have had 3-4 of them. Enough to make it a pretty big risk. Add in the threat of a normal vig--very common in RMm--and it would be extremely risky.

So yeah, I think that if I live and haven't proved myself over a series of days then suspicion might be justified. But this is day2 and I WILL NOT be intimidated into shooting if I do not think it is an opportune time to shoot. If you think lynching me is a good play instead then you must believe something very contrary to everything I just laid out and common sense.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1108 on: April 09, 2014, 08:08:59 pm »

Who said anything about you being a dayvig sk instead of just lying? That's what I'm more concerned about.
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1109 on: April 09, 2014, 08:11:17 pm »

Who said anything about you being a dayvig sk instead of just lying? That's what I'm more concerned about.

I feel like I just addressed the "lying" idea above. Please reread and get back to me?
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1110 on: April 09, 2014, 09:23:31 pm »

I mean... really it is a silly proposition that people are putting forth.

Really the only one that makes sense is me being a DayVig SK--which would be cool--but would require:
1. there to be a SK - possible given the pre-game info
2. mail-mi to come up with the role - possible but unlikely given no one else has thought of it before
3. me to think that claiming right out of the gates was the best way to do it and more important
4. not use a shot day1 and indicate that I am not using a shot today
5. the presence of a NK (ok, yes this could still hold true that if I use a Dayshot I lose my NK)

So there is the possibility. I think pretty unlikely off the bat. Yes the longer I stay alive (and other mafia/SK aren't flipped) the more likely something is fishy is up, but still drastically low.

Because for me to be doing what xeiron suggested would require me to claim w/o knowing if another player had said role. I get what xeiron is saying that I would basically be sacrificing myself  for chaos and semi-IC status and 2 or 3 days of trying as hard as possible to not get my teammates lynched. All that sounds ok, but would require me to risk being counter claimed. Dayvigs aren't the most common role in the world, but I would say we have had 3-4 of them. Enough to make it a pretty big risk. Add in the threat of a normal vig--very common in RMm--and it would be extremely risky.

So yeah, I think that if I live and haven't proved myself over a series of days then suspicion might be justified. But this is day2 and I WILL NOT be intimidated into shooting if I do not think it is an opportune time to shoot. If you think lynching me is a good play instead then you must believe something very contrary to everything I just laid out and common sense.

Yep.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1111 on: April 09, 2014, 09:25:41 pm »

So I'd say the possibilities for yuma are:

1)  Telling the truth about being a Dayvig
2)  Is actually a Dayvig SK
3)  Is actually an SK that can opt to Dayvig instead of nightkill
4)  Is actually just scum with a dayvig
5)  Is lying scum going crazy gambit
6)  Is lying town going crazy gambit

Probablility chart, from most likely to least, for me, is:

1 > 3 > 6 > 4 > 5 > 2
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1112 on: April 09, 2014, 09:41:18 pm »

Great. That said... why are we talking about me, who has a higher than average % of being town, instead of scum hunting?
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1113 on: April 09, 2014, 09:43:46 pm »

Great. That said... why are we talking about me, who has a higher than average % of being town, instead of scum hunting?

We're here.  Scum has to be lurking.  It's pretty egregious.

My extended VLA starts in like 6 hours.
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1114 on: April 09, 2014, 09:45:30 pm »

Want to vote Jimmm with me?
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1115 on: April 09, 2014, 09:47:48 pm »

Want to vote Jimmm with me?

Do you have a like a case case?  Or is it gut?
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1116 on: April 09, 2014, 09:53:58 pm »

I mean... really it is a silly proposition that people are putting forth.

Really the only one that makes sense is me being a DayVig SK--which would be cool--but would require:
1. there to be a SK - possible given the pre-game info
2. mail-mi to come up with the role - possible but unlikely given no one else has thought of it before
3. me to think that claiming right out of the gates was the best way to do it and more important
4. not use a shot day1 and indicate that I am not using a shot today
5. the presence of a NK (ok, yes this could still hold true that if I use a Dayshot I lose my NK)

So there is the possibility. I think pretty unlikely off the bat. Yes the longer I stay alive (and other mafia/SK aren't flipped) the more likely something is fishy is up, but still drastically low.

Because for me to be doing what xeiron suggested would require me to claim w/o knowing if another player had said role. I get what xeiron is saying that I would basically be sacrificing myself  for chaos and semi-IC status and 2 or 3 days of trying as hard as possible to not get my teammates lynched. All that sounds ok, but would require me to risk being counter claimed. Dayvigs aren't the most common role in the world, but I would say we have had 3-4 of them. Enough to make it a pretty big risk. Add in the threat of a normal vig--very common in RMm--and it would be extremely risky.

So yeah, I think that if I live and haven't proved myself over a series of days then suspicion might be justified. But this is day2 and I WILL NOT be intimidated into shooting if I do not think it is an opportune time to shoot. If you think lynching me is a good play instead then you must believe something very contrary to everything I just laid out and common sense.

So there probably is an SK:  (1) It makes a lot of flavor sense.  (2) The possibility was explicitly mentioned in the setup post.  (3) Two people died last night.  I know there are other explanations to (3), but an SK is (I'm guessing, new at mafia here) the most common one.  But okay that would imply a day SK AND a night SK.  I don't see why that's not possible (and I can justify it in flavor), but I have no idea if it would be done or not.  So (3) is probably a point against there being a day SK.

Secondly, a Dayvig SK makes a lot of flavor sense.  I could see any of the following characters be a third faction that can kill during the day:

(i) Elaida: Not Black Ajah but a real bitch and caused all kinds of problems for the "good guys".  She was one of the biggest enemies that wasn't a darkfriend.
(ii) Children of the Light: Like a lord inquisitor or whatever.  Not darkfriends (except for some infiltrators) but was another enemy to the good guys.  And they did it under the symbol of the Light.  They were a real problem and ever reader hated them with a passion.
(iii) Padan Fain/Mordeth: Night killing makes a lot more sense for him, but hey he could basically do whatever he wants.  He had pretty singular powers and abilities. 

Okay so I'm not trying to make a case.  I just wanted to point out that it's possible.  I don't have any idea whether or not it's likely in this setup because I don't really have any feeling of balancing roles or anything like that.

Though, if I recall the setup phrases it in the singular:

Quote
there may or may not be a third party role like a Serial Killer or Survivor.


Now you can argue it should be phrased this way regardless, but if you're writing this and you know there are multiple third-party roles, you may naturally pluralize things.  So maybe only a single third party is the most likely case.

So, I'm thinking that two deaths during the night *probably* means a regular (night) Serial Killer.  Which probably makes it less likely that's there's also a daytime serial killer.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1117 on: April 09, 2014, 09:54:27 pm »

Want to vote Jimmm with me?

Can you recap the case against Jimmm?
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1118 on: April 09, 2014, 09:54:57 pm »

Want to vote Jimmm with me?

Do you have a like a case case?  Or is it gut?

Ummm.... I had something once... I think:

imma gonna go vote: jimmmm. Still think he was a better lynch choice than sudgy or andrew but it never gained traction and I haven't seen anything today to make me think otherwise.
based of this from yesterday...

and I do agree with some of the points that xeiron made about Jimmmm... I feel like he has been one of the least talked about players this game....when xeiron voted for him I was confused...welll initially I was confused because I thought it said "jotheonah" for some reason and he obviously isn't in the game (but then I was confused again that Jimmmm was in the game)...

I vote a few posts later, which was refering to xeiron's points here:
Don't like the way this sudgy wagon suddenly started off. From zero votes to L-1 in what? 20 hours? sudgy's one of the obvious easy mislynches. I'll look to that in greater detail, but right now the sudgy wagon seems so much more likely scum-driven than the Andrew wagon.
I agree that the sudgy wagon seems scum driven.

The question is then who on it is scum?

Jimm's vote is a remnant from the old days of RVS
Yuma is the main force behind the wagon, I do not feel safe about him, but neither do I see a reson to vote for him.
TwistedArcher seems towny enough.
Much has been said about AndrewisFTTW, but his place on the sudgy wagon is no alignment tell. Everyone would do that when they are the main lynch alternative.
Archetype does not seems any more scummy than usual.
A Drowned Kernel could wery well be scum. He seems eager to lynch anyone except Andrew.

I will go with vote: jimmmmm. While he is not really a force on the wagon I do not like how he stays in the background.
He comments some thing that happends. Watches the Andrews wagon from a distance softly supporting it.
It feels like he just waits for a (mis)lynch to happen without wanting to get his own hands dirty.

and here from today:
Don't know the reason for killing faust as he was pretty set on lynching me. Could killing shraeye have something to do with ash?

These two posts from Jimm set off some red flags for me:

Yeah that seems like a fairly believeable claim.

Have you thought about which option you're going to choose Tonight Andrew?

I'm assuming Andrew is smart enough not to give anything away that he shouldn't, but I'd like to see evidence that he's actually thought about this role and it's not just something that was given him as a fakeclaim.

It seems like he's asking me to do something that I can't do, maybe so he can point to this later and say I was unwilling to cooperate or that my claim is a fakeclaim, otherwise I would've shown that I've thought about it beforehand and could somehow answer his question appropriately.

I did also notice those two posts.
vote: jimmmmm
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1119 on: April 09, 2014, 10:15:45 pm »

So.. okay.. I can't say much about anything there.  The first part mostly talks about him being absent but still on wagons.  That's fine, but there are a lot of absent players, and I have no way of knowing if this is more likely as scum or town.  But I can agree that scum would want to remain in the background.  Another quote referred to Jimmm's meta, which I don't have any knowledge of.

The part about Jimmm questioning Andrewis I can understand.  What Andrewis says makes sense.  On the other hand, my first instinct when someone claims something is to start asking a bunch of questions to see if it's true or not.  Maybe you could tell something from the way they respond, if not the actual answer itself.

So, yeah.. I guess I don't really have any input here.  I'm basically null at the moment.

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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1120 on: April 09, 2014, 10:17:29 pm »

Then who do YOU want to lynch. You aren't voting for anyone ATM...
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1121 on: April 09, 2014, 10:19:55 pm »

Then who do YOU want to lynch. You aren't voting for anyone ATM...


If I had to choose now I'd choose Ash.  But we have a good deal of time, and I want to figure out more and here more from the quiet people.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1122 on: April 09, 2014, 10:51:40 pm »

Who said anything about you being a dayvig sk instead of just lying? That's what I'm more concerned about.

I feel like I just addressed the "lying" idea above. Please reread and get back to me?

Your post addresses you being a sk and not mafia.

Ill find time to post a bit more tomorrow I promise. I have a few thoughts I want to get down but I need sleep now
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1123 on: April 09, 2014, 11:03:01 pm »

Your post addresses you being a sk and not mafia.

Ill find time to post a bit more tomorrow I promise. I have a few thoughts I want to get down but I need sleep now

No it did.

The part where I refer to "doing what xeiron suggested" is all about the possibility of me being mafia because that is what xeiron suggested...

Like I said there, it is unlikely because I would have to as mafia risk there being either a Vig (night or Day) that could potentially counterclaim me. The benefits I think don't out weigh the risks and thus should negate any suspicion you have from me not using my vig today.
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #1124 on: April 09, 2014, 11:22:38 pm »

So everyone who said that it was important that we get a flip and not no-lynch... what did we learn from the sudgy lynch?

I'll wait...

Also this was never addressed. In a few days I am going to go back and call out everyone who said that a flip was so essential to get information from. I have yet to see said information to find scum.

I'll wait...

After that I will start looking heavily at those who voted for this reason and will probably vote in that area unless something tangible is presented.
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