Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Voltaire]

He didn't. I made a dumb mistake. But again, how is that to his detriment? You are being really cryptic here. You aren't an IC in this game. Use full sentences and explain things for us dumb folk.

Yes, that is another explanation. It's to his detriment if there is a BPT, Teproc is scum, you are town, he says nothing, the BPT claims based on your post, now scum knows who the BPT is! This is just one example. I am giving Teproc towncred for many reasons, all of which point in the same direction, not just chair's /out.

[Voltaire]

sorry, that probalby crossed the line of not talking about games...

's fine, it's confusing.

[Voltaire]

Also yuma, I do find your play of late to be more town than I did early on. You're started to get POEd by me, mostly. And of course I could be wrong. I realized I haven't re-read the thread since flips anyway (which is insanely horrible) so that's what I'm doing right now.

[yuma]

He didn't. I made a dumb mistake. But again, how is that to his detriment? You are being really cryptic here. You aren't an IC in this game. Use full sentences and explain things for us dumb folk.

Yes, that is another explanation. It's to his detriment if there is a BPT, Teproc is scum, you are town, he says nothing, the BPT claims based on your post, now scum knows who the BPT is! This is just one example. I am giving Teproc towncred for many reasons, all of which point in the same direction, not just chair's /out.

Unless he is mafia who knows that a BPT doesn't exist... I am starting to get what you are saying, but I think it is dangerous to just hand out credit for those things. although I am kinda doing the same. I am not really considering teproc a lynch for today, but I am keeping him very much in the back of my mind because I do think it is a realistic possibility that he is in fact scum, especially as it appears other players appear to not be.

[Voltaire]

If that's what you're thinking then I agree with you. Of course I'd consider lynching him under many scenarios tomorrow. But not today.

[WalrusMcFishSr]

Alright, I'm back with a serious post before boring work.

So the last thing I really mentioned is that I found EFHW vs. teproc to be town vs. town. Apparently I was half right about that at least. I'd like to be able to lump yuma into that category, but as I've said he seems to have an uncanny ability to make anybody look scummy. It could be that this is just a reflection of his diligence as town...I still don't think he's my preferred lynch tonight, but I'm not as confident in his towniness as I used to be. Although if he was jailkept, and we still had a nightkill, that reduces his possibility for scum by 50%, eh? But then wouldn't the less prominent scum naturally take the kill if he were theoretically paired with a high-profile player? So hmmmm.

To be honest I still like the Voltaire lynch best. I feel like his praise of Teproc is laying it on a bit thick (trying to butter up the new guy?), and he continues to not hit it home with the level of analysis I would expect from town!Volt. Teproc is behaving more like Voltaire than Voltaire is, as I see it, and I think Volt is almost sheeping that.

So anyway I could move my vote back there. But if that's not the consensus then Eevee is my second choice.

[Voltaire]

Where do you land on yuma, Walrus? I see no conclusion there.

[WalrusMcFishSr]

I land on "not as confident as I used to be, but not my preferred lynch today."

[Eevee]

Well, do you still want Eevee or yuma, EFHW? I'd strongly consider yuma. I'd need to think a lot about Eevee. As for others...mail-mi is probably town, so is Teproc, at the very least I think they're bad lynches today, so that leaves...Walrus. So I guess my lynch pool today is Eevee, yuma, Walrus.

Walrus >> yuma >>>>>> Eevee for me.

[Voltaire]

I am so cool lynching any one of yuma, Eevee, or Walrus now. Open to figuring out which of them it should be.

Why? On my re-read, when does yuma come out gunning for EFHW first? After calling yuma scummy for his L-1 on Robz and after pointing out how Eevee should know better about Robz. Walrus jumps right on that (sheeps yuma onto EFHW) after it happens.

Yuma lightly goes after Walrus early and seems to back off. Which struck me as strange at the time and I asked yuma about it. Of course Eevee tunnels (with good reason maybe! but tunnels nonetheless) Walrus all game. Eevee does seem to subtly push the idea of yuma being lynched.

Lotsa people use the "Voltaire isn't creative here, that's weird" line, including Eevee and Walrus.

So...because we are approaching deadline and I am willing to make assumptions...here are the options:

Walrus/yuma - Plausible.
Walrus/Eevee - Extreme bussing from Eevee, less plausible.
yuma/Eevee - Quite plausible.

So the common denominator is yuma. vote: yuma. Open to switching around here, as this is a sorta POE vote.

Because here's the thing, when Walrus went to L-1 it was WalrusMcFishSr (4): Chairs, Eevee, Mail-mi, Faust. That's probably town, unknown, probably town, town. OK hmm.

You three! One of you prove that you're town!

OH OH OH OH OH yuma also attacked faust right after faust called Walrus very scummy, with a case he realized didn't exist. So...yeah.

Sorry this post is a jumble.

OK I'm posting this now only half-way done with the re-read because it gives people more time to react before deadline, I'll add to it if I have to.

[Eevee]

Voltaire, where does the town read on mail-mi stem from?

[yuma]

So...because we are approaching deadline and I am willing to make assumptions...here are the options:

Walrus/yuma - Plausible.
Walrus/Eevee - Extreme bussing from Eevee, less plausible.
yuma/Eevee - Quite plausible.

So the common denominator is yuma. vote: yuma. Open to switching around here, as this is a sorta POE vote.

This part of the post is exceptionally problematic. I am willing to make assumptions that Teproc and mail-mi are somewhat less likely to be mafia and thus probably not our lynches for today. But I think extending that assumption to say that they are certainly not mafia and thus the two have to exist in the set of three that you outline is just bad.

For me it is very plausible that Walrus could be partners with teproc or mail-mi or Eevee partners with teproc or mail-mi (beyond not looking at specifics, just looking at it generally).

So I am willing to say, yeah... let's not look at teproc or mail-mi today. But to then use that assumption to try and figure out scumteams looks like really shabby scum hunting.

Oh... and volt. I realize that you kinda got to me via PoE... but is there anything that you have to say about my actual play or posts that I can respond to? Voting w/o looking into that at all is really questionable as well.

[Eevee]

I really don't understand - you seem to be doing extensive rereads on everyone else and really considering all the angles.. and when it comes to mail-mi you just say "seems like his town self". What's the difference between his town and scum play? If I had to summarize mail-mi's play to this point without reading back, I'd say "has posted the least, has been willing to participate in any lynch imaginable". I wouldn't be surprised if mail-mi was willing to hammer TA or nkirbit if we ran them up to three votes!

Mail-mi, what are your reads in this game? I honestly have no clue.

[Voltaire]

Voltaire, where does the town read on mail-mi stem from?

The meta aether.

It's a huge problem, and Teproc makes the points that his voting pattern is horrible. I mean, if mail-mi were anyone else I'd instavote him as scum lurking his way to the win. But this is how I've seen town mail-mi behave.

[Voltaire]

Oh... and volt. I realize that you kinda got to me via PoE... but is there anything that you have to say about my actual play or posts that I can respond to? Voting w/o looking into that at all is really questionable as well.

I have had a lite scum read on you since early D1. Go and look at my D1 posts/vote on you. I can bring them up again here but I am like 2/3 of the way through D1 right now so like I said this doesn't cover everything.

Also:

I am willing to make assumptions that Teproc and mail-mi are somewhat less likely to be mafia and thus probably not our lynches for today. But I think extending that assumption to say that they are certainly not mafia and thus the two have to exist in the set of three that you outline is just bad.

Actually no, what I did was very logical given my assumptions. Like I said, it's Assumption Time! c'mon and grab your friends...

[Voltaire]

Mail-mi, what are your reads in this game? I honestly have no clue.

Totally down with mail-mi needing to post a reads list.

[yuma]

Actually no, what I did was very logical given my assumptions. Like I said, it's Assumption Time! c'mon and grab your friends...

No. It isn't. Not to the extent that you are. Because what you are doing is one assumption to build upon another one. Once you start doing that you get very, very shaky results...

Look, this is what you are doing.

Assumption1: mail-mi and teproc are less likely to be mafia than others

Assumption2: because of this, yuma, eevee and walrus are more likely to be mafia than others.

Assumption3: because of this there must be 2 mafia in yuma, eevee and walrus.

Assumption4: therefore I should use assumption3 to see which of the three options is the most likely to be a scum team.

You have to assume 4 different things before you arrive at a conclusion. That isn't good. I agree that mail-mi and teproc probably shouldn't be the lynch candidates for today, which means I should only be looking at Walrus, eevee and voltaire...

But I want to take in everything (including associations with mail-mi and teproc) in trying to figure out which one is mafia/partners. Not doing so excludes possibilities that are very real and doesn't result in incredibly shaky results.

do you see what I am saying? Make assumptions. But don't make so many that what you are left with is a bunch of nothing.

[Eevee]

I'm trying to address the case on me as I see it, feel free to correct me if I've misunderstood something.

-Lack of activity / disappearing at the end of day 1

Look, I know it sucks. I'm spinning further and further away from the top posted I once was. I did a similar disappearing act twice in MC. I know it's bad and very antitown, but there has been some stretches where I haven't gone to a computer for a week, really doesn't bode well with mafia playing. No excuse here, other than that the more active members of the community probably noticed how I wasn't posting anywhere else that the time, either. When I promised to catch up and never did, I got 1/3 through, then friends came over to a surprise visit, we ended up going out and when I sat down on the computer to finish the job the following afternoon/evening, I noticed that the thread had already been locked. I'm terrible with keeping deadlines in mind.

-Never expanding on the walrus-case

Well, it started from the discrepancy in his play I noticed (even though no one seemed to agree with it). I went back to reread the beginning of MC, and my impressions matched what I found. Now, I understand I said I'd revisit the case and make it prettier, but laziness and the realization that Walrus himself is demanding me to do it - saying I only have one concrete example to show got the better of me. Once I had told walrus what it was that I found suspicious, he obviously had the option of stopping doing it. I thought that doing the work to try to find more examples wouldn't be fruitful, as I kind of tipped my hand to him earlier. Starting to suspect him from early on obviously caused me to look at his posts through a different lens, but nothing he has done since has really made me reconsider the read - I scumhunt mainly through PoE, and while other people have plopped town towny content (like Teproc) or towny claims (like EFHW), Walrus hasn't really done any of that.

What else, I'm forgetting?

PPE4, I type slow

[Eevee]

Voltaire, where does the town read on mail-mi stem from?

The meta aether.

It's a huge problem, and Teproc makes the points that his voting pattern is horrible. I mean, if mail-mi were anyone else I'd instavote him as scum lurking his way to the win. But this is how I've seen town mail-mi behave.

i think i was the first to point out your "lack of creative scumhunting ideas" and also mail-mi's horrible voting record. I feel I'm not getting credit for the content I've posted, because scum somewhere is eager to get me mislynched.

What'st the meta eather though? I don't understand. Would scum-mailmi play somehow different? I'm by no means an express in reading mail-mi, but simply saying "he is town" while doing extensive rereads and a lot of work on determining other people feels incredibly scummy to me. If either of you flipped scum, that'd heighten my suspicion on the other person quite a bit.

[Eevee]

Actually, regardless of mail-mi's alignment Voltaire's unexplainable town read on him is very scummy.

[yuma]

Looking for volt's day1 cases against me:

says lite scum read, but not why:

Where I am right now is actually having a lite scumread on yuma, but knowing I don't want to lynch him today. Yuma is always a terrible D1 lynch. I'm trying to explore other areas instead.

explains it with a "gut read"

what is causing this read (even if it is lite)?

Honestly, I can't call it more than a "gut" read right now. Your play is different. The Robz thing was interesting, and on a scale of 0 to 78 with 78 being obvscum I've decided it was a 41c now. You seem to be more passive about your primary case than you usually are. You don't seem to be as dominating of a leading voice as I'm expecting. I think we can all agree why this read is "lite" at best.

he backs off from me and then wants to lynch me again because...

OK, well then. Anybody else just want to lynch yuma today?

why would you want to lynch me?

Yuma is always a terrible D1 lynch.

Because my scum read on you has been growing all day and there comes a point where you think "why am I not lynching my top scum read again?"

It still might be a terrible idea.

and then a vote

And vote: yuma, Robz doesn't seem to be going through anyway.

A OMGUS vote by the way.

and then backs off me again when it gets zero support:

I think chairs (/out actions) and mail-mi (consistent with town meta) are town or close enough they should be off the table for today's lynch.

I have returned to thinking lynching yuma is a terrible idea today.

So volt I got nothing from this except that you had a gut feel about me and then OMGUS me.

By the way here is my case on voltaire day1 for remembering purposes... I still think it is a good one and sad that I abandoned it. Whole post here and a quote:

Voltaire has done nothing all day but push for and vote Robz. All based off stuff he "discovered" day1. I just looked through his posts and he has basically added nothing to the case since his original vote. This is the definition of tunneling and tunneling for a bad reason. I can't believe that town voltaire would think that his case is stronger than any other case out there... I just can't.

Robz, you had a vote on voltaire right? I think this is the way to go. Come join me. Anyone else interested? reread voltaire... all you will see is a bunch of posts about robz and how nothing else is better when the whole case on him was established day1 on somewhat flimsy premises.

Next looking at voltaire day2.

[Eevee]

Actually, regardless of mail-mi's alignment Voltaire's unexplainable town read on him is very scummy.

We've established that having no town reads is scummy (...except.. it wasn't). I don't know why scumVoltaire would do it, but scum gets tangled up in their web of lies sometimes, and I sure as hell don't see why townVoltaire would do it. That and the lack of "townvoltaire-like, supergreat contributions", and I'd actually be down with a Voltaire-lynch and that's something that I've said very rarely in the past.

Vote: Voltaire

The pool of people I'd like to see lynched today are mail-mi, Voltaire and walrus. Quite comfortable with the town read on teproc, and while yuma's attempts (one successful, one unsuccessful) to get two townies lynched already give him scum points, his play otherwise has been townier for me so would prefer to aforementioned three / would really only vote yuma if it was needed for self-preservation.

[Eevee]

Reading yuma's case on Voltaire from day 1 now, anticipating the day 2 version!

[mail-mi]

Mail-mi, what are your reads in this game? I honestly have no clue.

Totally down with mail-mi needing to post a reads list when he gets home

FIFY

[yuma]

voltaire day2:

The breadcrumb pickup at start of day.

worth noting that he didn't immediately jump on me like I anticipated he would. Maybe because I called him out on it before he did?

Lots of theory talk that I am not going to try and get a read from....

started the voting on EFHW day2 relying on somethign that I think was false and is obviously false now, her "mafia-esque" townread on Robz. Cause she never had a townread on Robz and my day1 case on EFHW which I had all but abandoned... Note that he also made this vote when he had two votes on him... maybe even three as EFHW puts him to L-1 at some point around that time...

Here is an interesting reads post earlish day2:

So, reads. Those too.

Strong town reads on:
Teproc - great strong start, is thinking like me, playing pro-town, plus when he was chairs all that stuff points towards town too

Small town reads on:
mail-mi - behaving like normal scummy mail-mi. If he's scum we'll POE him at some point, or he'll have to start playing and show his true colors.

Null reads on:
yuma - still some concerning stuff D1, though he did propose claiming first. Scum yuma did that for towncred in WWTWDP and it came back to bite him. I'd think scum!yuma would have learned his lesson that it's not worth it, and just casually support claiming after someone else floats it
Eevee - wow, I can never remember Eevee. Ever.

Light scum read on:
Walrus - Eevee's case is darn good.

Strong scum read on:
EFHW - see the post where I vote her for why.

Big things that I note is that his reads then are exactly the same as they are now... except EFHW is now obvtown.

But the main thing to point out is that he is saying that mail-mi will PoE himself if scum and or he will have to start playing and show his true colors. But mail-mi hasn't... so why still the credit... This reminds me of some other posts from voltaire day1 about mail-mi:

Also, tou have a town read on me. That's not normal.

The one time I hardcore tunneled you, I was scum.

And you're a town read with a D1 pass, btw, no further.

where he says that he gives mail-mi a D1 pass only... but looks like that pass has been extended despite nothing changing.

he basically sheeps his way onto my case on EFHW as his case on her was discredited...

And now he has his really bad assumption making that raises my eyebrows... including a vote on me for reasons he says are in day1... but aren't except an unexplained gut read...

vote: voltaire that should be two votes with me and eevee on him. Walrus has voted there before.