I'd be interested in seeing the case on Faust summarized.
your wish... I won't do super long quotes here, I'll link points and then do a brief explainer about them:
Point 1:Both walrus and I have noted that we feel that faust is spinning stuff to look scummier than it actually is. This second link is messy. I thought I was onto something that didn't pan out because of me misremembering, the relevant paragraph is the third from the bottom and specifically in reference to quotes #1, #2 and #4 where I felt that spinning was going on.
Point 2: a self vote. Alone, not much, but added together, something...
Point 3: This isn't a super solid point, but I am going to include it. It isn't solid because it is calling out something that I think is generally more pro-town... making reads lists. But I am calling it out because of something I remember from modding in MC in the scum QT. I am going to quote here instead of making people read through that monster of a topic:
Faust, I totalllllyyyy thought you were mafia in that game. I was dead wrong...
I found you really scummy, because your reads list basically amounted to active players = towny lurking players = scummy. While you were true, I think a lot of people will find a list like that scummy. Hmmm...trying to think of any more advice...you were pretty spot-on with your reads, actually, so keep doing what you were doing!
In this TA basically says that faust should keep doing what he did in NMIV... posting reads lists that basically amounted to having town reads on active players and scum reads on lurkers... I don't think that faust ever really had a chance to fully do that in MC, so I wonder if he kept that in his pocket and is doing it here. If someone called him out on it, all he has to do is say, "but that is how I was in NMIV!" and he is set. Of course he would know that I probably read that post by TA... but I only just remembered it as I was rereading.
Point 4: Again more spin. Add to it that I think faust wants to try and get a mislynch going on me... he has done this before and this is part of what my case that fell apart was about.... but he knows that there are enough people who have publicly stated that they are against it so he knows that he can't, but still wants to raise suspicion on me, why? Because scum needs three mislynches and if he is scum I am a very attractive mislynch possibility. Obviously this point only holds water if you know I am town or if you have a very strong town read on me.
Point 5: He, along with chairs has been on the two L-1 wagons in the last day. I think this is suspicious because in a game of this size, mafia needs to be the driving forces. They can't let town waltz their way into a mislynch on their own because wagons can dissolve and reform elsewhere (on mafia) so easily that mafia I think will need to feel like they are in full control of the situation. Thus I think mafia is more likely to be on those wagons trying to push forward a mislynch. Here this requires you to have townier reads on Walrus and Robz (so that they would be mislynches) I do happen to have townier reads on Walrus and Robz, they are my highest town reads in that order.
Point 6: "search name: faust" 20 posts. Then look at faust's posting history. Very active early. There have been just over 300 posts this game by all players. Faust's first 12 posts came in the first 100. 6 in the middle 100. 2 in the last 100. This to me is indicative of scum. It is hard to maintain posts of frequency. It really is. My posting when I am scum dips down (I try extremely hard to alleviate that, but it does... it does for everyone) and it becomes progressively harder as days go longer and the game goes longer. Alone this point doesn't carry a lot of weight. But added to the rest...
Let me respond to each of yuma's points here:
Point 1: So I'm making things look scummier than they are. Maybe. But that's what you do when you make cases. You focus on what's scummy in order to make you point and get reactions. Yuma himself says at the end of
this post that spinning is done by town as well, so I don't see how this is a scumtell.
Point 2: That self-vote had a reason, but I won't explain it.
Point 3: That's just like extremely constructed. Have you even read my reads list? I have a town read on a lurker (chairs) and a scum read on an active player (Walrus) there. How is that "having town reads on active players and scum reads on lurkers"?
Point 4: OMGUS? Is it now forbidden to point out things about you that look suspicious just because a majority of players (including me) doesn't want to lynch you today?
Point 5: Yes, for this to work, you would need to have a strong town read on both Robz and Walrus. I don't have that. But yuma seems certain enough about his town reads that he is willing to derive more reads from that, something I find hard to do because the chance of being wrong increases exponentially: Say you are 85 percent sure that Walrus is town and 80 percent sure that Robz is town. (suppose also, for simplicity's sake, that these events are independent) Above that, you are 50 percent sure that I am scum if both Robz and Walrus are town (again, pretty confident), and say you have a null read on me otherwise (because I'm only arguing against this point here). A null read means the probability for me being scum is 2/8=0.25
So what's the overall likelihood that I am scum in this scenario?
P(Walrus is town AND Robz is town)=P(Walrus is town)*P(Robz is town)= 0.85*0.8= 0.68
P(I am scum)=P(I am scum | Walrus is town AND Robz is town)*P(Walrus is town AND Robz is town) + P(I am scum | NOT (Walrus is town AND Robz is town))= 0.5*0.68 + 0.25*0.32= 0.42
The likelihood of me being scum drops by 8 percentage points because you can't be certain that your reads are correct. That's why I prefer what one could call "primary cases" - cases that aren't based on the assumption that others have a certain alignments.
Point 6: My main problem is that most discussions here take place while I'm asleep. So by nature, I'm often not around when lots of posts are happening. It somehow worked early in the game, probably also because it was starting out slowly. Also, I'm quite busy in real life.