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[Voltaire]

e, any situation with 4 players and a "simple" setup (ie 3 VT 1 scum) the right call is almost always to no-lynch so that scum kills another player and town has a smaller pool from which to decide with their one shot. It's still only 1 shot, but you can make it easier on yourself that way.

[Voltaire]

If I missed a case, tell me. 
The thing that sticks out to me is that no matter what, if we no lynch today we are still able to have a mislynch D4 and win.

e, if we lynch scum today that would be explicitly better than no-lynch, because we know what will happen tonight - 5 players, 1 scum, 2 shots for town to win. In your no-lynch scenarios, only some situations also result in 2 shots for town.

[2.71828.....]

If I missed a case, tell me. 
The thing that sticks out to me is that no matter what, if we no lynch today we are still able to have a mislynch D4 and win.

e, if we lynch scum today that would be explicitly better than no-lynch, because we know what will happen tonight - 5 players, 1 scum, 2 shots for town to win. In your no-lynch scenarios, only some situations also result in 2 shots for town.

ok I see that now.  And your point about the 4 player situation. 

Situations that allow town D4 mislynch with the chance of a win remaining.
1. We lynch scum, doctor dies
6. We no lynch.  scum/VT die
9. We no lynch. scum/doctor die

The "interesting" situations:
4. We lynch town.  VT/VT die
5. We lynch town.  VT/Doctor die
7. We no lynch. VT/VT die
8. We no lynch.  VT/Doctor die

The "simple" situations:
2. We lynch town.  scum/VT die
3. We lynch town.  scum/doctor die

[2.71828.....]

I am out now.  Will be following the game but won't be able to post long thoughts until Monday, only one liners at best.  I am happy if we decide to no lynch before then, but FOS to anyone in my list here who hasn't completed my "assigned homework" before a lynch/no lynch.

[Voltaire]

I think, in terms of what's the best for us, it goes scum > no lynch >>>>>> town. So are we willing to risk a mislynch today?

I want feedback from everyone else now. I'm not posting again until other people start talking.

[Voltaire]

Players who have posted today:
Voltaire
e

Please tell me someone else sees the problem.

[sudgy]

Players who have posted today:
Voltaire
e

Please tell me someone else sees the problem.

Me and yuma have posted some (granted, mine not being great).

[Voltaire]

Players who have posted today:
Voltaire
e

Please tell me someone else sees the problem.

Me and yuma have posted some (granted, mine not being great).

Not today, you two haven't. Real-life today. We have a lot to work out still. It's not good.

Since you're clearly following the thread, care to post that big re-read you said you're working on?

[sudgy]

Players who have posted today:
Voltaire
e

Please tell me someone else sees the problem.

Me and yuma have posted some (granted, mine not being great).

Not today, you two haven't. Real-life today. We have a lot to work out still. It's not good.

Since you're clearly following the thread, care to post that big re-read you said you're working on?

First off, I'm not done yet, and second, I don't have time.  I don't want to get behind in the thread, so with the few moments of time I have, I keep up with the thread.

[Jimmmmm]

Here Jimmmm is tyring to pain me as scummy for my "Arch is lame" posts... which I still stand by and am still mad about.

I'm not trying to paint anything. Despite having just found out that two scum killed each other, something that for a Townie is utterly excellent news because it puts us back in the game, you're still more concerned about something a dead player did 48 hours prior. You don't see how that comes across as strange?

[Jimmmmm]

I'm looking at the scenarios for lynch vs no-lynch.

mail-mi, if Town refuses to lynch and scum refuses to kill, what happens?

[liopoil]

I guys, I'm here. I can't believe I hadn't considered no lynch yet, will do so.

Well I just reread Jimmmm. I am interested to hear what voltaire has to say about Jimmm being similar to HP. I can't remember that game very well.

I do think jimmm coming out pressing me today for emotions was scummy, but looking over day1 and day2 there just isn't a lot.... like just really hard to analyze stuff. Day1 there is nothing and day2 the main thing that I got was that Jimmmm was basically willing to sell his vote to the highest bidder. Just so little effort (mostly based off VLA stuff I guess) that reminded me a lot! of Jimmmm in Bankers. (note for those that didn't play that Jimmmm was a pretty heavy lurker in that game for the early days at least and really didn't do much of anything except defend himself (because of VLA issues and heavy suspicion by town)... he turned out to be town and had to fight off basically all of town wanting to mislynch him and was a huge distraction.... that is the wagon on Jimmmm was a distraction... not that Jimmmm himself was) So I don't know about here.

I feel like Jimmmm gave more of an effort in HP... or at least really wanted to give more of an effort. Here, he just isn't.

I kinda feel like I am getting to the point of PoE liopoil.

I am out. Sudgy and 2.7 I think are out. Voltaire is out. Jimmm I don't feel too confident about. So between gveo and liopoil I think i would go with liopoil.

His increased activity makes me wonder if he is scum realizing he needs to step up his game if he wants to survive.

vote: liopoil

The rest of town, please listen very carefully and remember this tomorrow:

I agree with pretty much everything that has been said here by yuma (with the exception of the stuff about Jimmmmm, I'll cover that elsewhere). However, I have noticed that yuma seems to be mirroring me in a subtle way. He is making arguments he knows I'll be pre-disposed to like (such as claiming that scum can't afford to let people become consensus town reads). There is a problem with that in this game though - town can probably afford at least one since each scum needs to kill the other one first. He is also agreeing with pretty much all of my reads, and not calling me out for much of anything really.

So what does this mean?

It means that, for multiple reasons, I think that yuma is town. For one, I see absolutely no reason why scum!yuma would hammer faust (yuma has stated that he likes to play conservative as scum). WIFOM always possible, of course. But I am always over-wary of yuma (we just lost a game for town by being convinced the other was scum - Game of Thrones mafia if you want to read it), and so I can convince myself of the above being true.

What this means is that I am not going to advocate lynching yuma today, nor will I vote him. I have just shot town, and myself, in the foot too many times seeing scum!yuma lurking in the shadows when he's not really there. However, I want the rest of the town to be aware that this might be happening and look at yuma closely tomorrow should I die tonight.

I'll go into the odds of that happening in a bit. I am not caught up on the thread, btw.

It seems like your only reason for thinking yuma is town is that he hammered faust, and that you are scared of mislynching him. Except you never have mislynched him. Seems really a bad idea to decide for sure that you won't be voting for yuma today. Have you read my rereads of eevee/robz? This far outweighs anything about his hammer. And I have more things too that I am working on.

Just asking that you keep an open mind, I believe there are really good reasons to suspect yuma, and will pull them together soon. Feels like you are dismissing my unmade case because yuma hammered faust. If quickhammering gets you that much towncred, I think there's something very wrong.

[liopoil]

Mods, what happens if everyone is dead at the end of the game?

I think I see at least one situation where this could happen.

this is impossible. See the second post of the thread and one of my posts somewhere near the start of D3.

[Voltaire]

Except you never have mislynched him.

Did you read the part of my post about the end of Game of Thrones mafia?

[liopoil]

Except you never have mislynched him.

Did you read the part of my post about the end of Game of Thrones mafia?

I haven't read GoT much, but I highly doubt that you can blame the loss on you two suspecting each either if neither of you were lynched. (IIRC from what little I did read, neither of you were lynched).

[liopoil]

oh, I see you were lynched in lylo for the loss. Still, that's him suspecting you, and that's only 1 mislynch of 3.

[Voltaire]

Except you never have mislynched him.

Did you read the part of my post about the end of Game of Thrones mafia?

I haven't read GoT much, but I highly doubt that you can blame the loss on you two suspecting each either if neither of you were lynched. (IIRC from what little I did read, neither of you were lynched).

Dude.

yuma and I voted for each other in 5-person lylo, and scum hammered me for the win. My lynch ended the game in a loss for town, but it could have been yuma's lynch for the loss if scum had wanted it to be.

[liopoil]

And now I see you voted for him as well. So okay, your suspicion of each other was detrimental to town, however, it was far from losing the game by itself, and it was just one game, and not something that you should base your play on going forward.

[liopoil]

So yeah, sorry for jumping to conclusions w/out actually having read the end of the game to make sure.

[Voltaire]

And now I see you voted for him as well. So okay, your suspicion of each other was detrimental to town, however, it was far from losing the game by itself, and it was just one game, and not something that you should base your play on going forward.

I heavily suspected yuma in B2B when he was the doctor and you were the last scum we were trying to find. This is a long-term trend.

[liopoil]

And now I see you voted for him as well. So okay, your suspicion of each other was detrimental to town, however, it was far from losing the game by itself, and it was just one game, and not something that you should base your play on going forward.

I heavily suspected yuma in B2B when he was the doctor and you were the last scum we were trying to find. This is a long-term trend.

but you ended up voting for me...

And the point remains that you shouldn't be afraid of history repeating itself. Being wrong in the past about a player doesn't make you more likely to be wrong about them again. If you would be suspecting them for the same reasons as before, that would be one thing. is this the case?

[Voltaire]

but you ended up voting for me...

And the point remains that you shouldn't be afraid of history repeating itself. Being wrong in the past about a player doesn't make you more likely to be wrong about them again. If you would be suspecting them for the same reasons as before, that would be one thing. is this the case?

Yes, only because Eevee convinced me that even if I wanted to lynch yuma I should at least wait one night.

And yes, it is basically the same reasons - yuma being too clever by half! Aaaaaaa, don't get fooled by yuma! Aaaaaaa! If my POE is right one of you two is scum, and likely Robz's partner, so he does have a 50% chance.

Interested in your thoughts on no lynch. Same as yuma's. Same as everyone's. Thanks for showing up and posting.

[liopoil]

And yes, it is basically the same reasons - yuma being too clever by half! Aaaaaaa, don't get fooled by yuma! Aaaaaaa! If my POE is right one of you two is scum, and likely Robz's partner, so he does have a 50% chance.

Interested in your thoughts on no lynch. Same as yuma's. Same as everyone's. Thanks for showing up and posting.

Well, it's fine to not suspect yuma because he's being clever and you're scared of being fooled. yes, you should try not to get fooled, but also not suspect him because you see something that looks like he's trying to fool you. You should suspect him for my reasons for suspecting him. And certainly not just blatantly say that you aren't going to vote for him today because of prior bad experiences.

Yep, I'm trying to figure out no lynch. I haven't thoroughly read yours and E's posts on no lynch yet, just skimmed.

[Voltaire]

Well, it's fine to not suspect yuma because he's being clever and you're scared of being fooled. yes, you should try not to get fooled, but also not suspect him because you see something that looks like he's trying to fool you. You should suspect him for my reasons for suspecting him. And certainly not just blatantly say that you aren't going to vote for him today because of prior bad experiences.

The last person who tried to tell me I was a bad IC was scum. 

[mail-mi]

mail-mi, will flavor tell us who a person is if they do get double targeted and thus escape free?

I don't know how this situation has worked in the past/how it is supposed to work.

No.