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[yuma]

Voltaire... do you see any similarity between Jimmmm today and mail-mi at the beginning of day3 in Game of Thrones?

No, but I see a similarity with scum!Jimmmmm from HP. I'll look into what you just said, though.

I'll be a little less vague....

I think that Jimmmm is being similar to mail-mi in critiquing my opening posts and use of emotion.

In game of thrones mail-mi tried to paint me as scummy for my "BAHHH!" style post expressing frustration with the Walrus lynch the day before...

Here Jimmmm is tyring to pain me as scummy for my "Arch is lame" posts... which I still stand by and am still mad about. I stopped following his RMM game and had arch remove my posts from there so it would stop showing up in my "new reads" because I still irritated by it--I didn't want to follow something that was given abundantly more priority than this game and the obligations that go along with it (but that is a completely different subject for maybe another time). I think trying to cast suspicion on people for expressing emotions is scummy. Emotions aren't scummy. They are emotions, but casting suspicion because of it... reminds me very much what mail-mi did last game.

[yuma]

He doesn't express a scumread on Jimmmmm there! he says that it actually is something he is LESS likely to say as scum.

Sorry I misread that. I disagree with your other points, but part of the problem is that I can't say anything about eevee. Eevee is his own person and I can't refute or explain why he said what he said so I really don't have a response.

[liopoil]

So then why do you disagree with it? just because you "know" that you aren't eevee's partner?

[yuma]

So then why do you disagree with it? just because you "know" that you aren't eevee's partner?

Yep.

[liopoil]

E.i., is there a reason that you would disagree with said points if they were made on a different player?

[yuma]

E.i., is there a reason that you would disagree with said points if they were made on a different player?

I don't know. Maybe. That is hard to say because that is a situation that doesn't exist, so I can't really say what I would think. Right now I know the points are incorrect because I know what I know. If I didn't know what I know it might have more weight--probably would--but I can't hypothesize what I would think in that situation because I am not in that situation.

So I guess I would consider it and see if it was of worth, whereas here I am just completely rejecting it because of what I know.

[yuma]

Well I just reread Jimmmm. I am interested to hear what voltaire has to say about Jimmm being similar to HP. I can't remember that game very well.

I do think jimmm coming out pressing me today for emotions was scummy, but looking over day1 and day2 there just isn't a lot.... like just really hard to analyze stuff. Day1 there is nothing and day2 the main thing that I got was that Jimmmm was basically willing to sell his vote to the highest bidder. Just so little effort (mostly based off VLA stuff I guess) that reminded me a lot! of Jimmmm in Bankers. (note for those that didn't play that Jimmmm was a pretty heavy lurker in that game for the early days at least and really didn't do much of anything except defend himself (because of VLA issues and heavy suspicion by town)... he turned out to be town and had to fight off basically all of town wanting to mislynch him and was a huge distraction.... that is the wagon on Jimmmm was a distraction... not that Jimmmm himself was) So I don't know about here.

I feel like Jimmmm gave more of an effort in HP... or at least really wanted to give more of an effort. Here, he just isn't.

I kinda feel like I am getting to the point of PoE liopoil.

I am out. Sudgy and 2.7 I think are out. Voltaire is out. Jimmm I don't feel too confident about. So between gveo and liopoil I think i would go with liopoil.

His increased activity makes me wonder if he is scum realizing he needs to step up his game if he wants to survive.

vote: liopoil

[liopoil]

okay, now I'll do the opposite, and read some still alive people for their interactions with the two dead scum:

I'll go in playerlist order, so sudgy first:

D1:

- votes robz for pressure, unvotes shortly after
- would be fine lynching eevee

D2:

- has a bit of an interaction with eevee about eevee suspecting him
- null on both eevee and robz in "read" list

aaaand that's it. So pretty much nothing of interest, maybe slight town for being fine with their lynches D1.

will continue with hopefully eventually the rest of the players.

[liopoil]

vote: liopoil

have you ever really explained why you suspect me? or is it really pure POE?

And also, in case it wasn't clear from my previous posts, I'll probably end up voting for you (there's quite a case building in my head), but I'm doing it justice and looking at each player closely first.

His increased activity makes me wonder if he is scum realizing he needs to step up his game if he wants to survive.

or, you know, maybe I have more time + am more interested in the game.

[liopoil]

I'll skip yuma (for now) and go to E:

D1:

- calls robz out for lurking early, has more interactions with him early D1
- puts both robz/eevee on wait until D2 to consider lynching list

D2:

- buys the second two points in robz's eevee case
- supports robz against voltaire
- comments on eevee, stays pretty null
- defends self against eevee's suspicion on him

Doesn't really fit with either one very well... I am fine with taking E off the table today. If he's scum, I think it's almost certainly with robz. It doesn't fit for him to be scum with eevee at all. And it isn't exactly a perfect fit for him to be with robz either. I'd rather lynch someone who has possibilities to be either scum, and E isn't it.

same goes for sudgy, btw. He was at the bottom tier of both my eevee and robz rereads, and the reread on him didn't add much to suspect. So fine with taking him off the table too.

[yuma]

vote: liopoil

have you ever really explained why you suspect me? or is it really pure POE?

I believe I have mentioned a couple of things here and there in the last little bit so it isn't pure PoE. I don't have the time atm to build a full case (work and baby). I hope to be able to do so in the next day or so and who knows... maybe I won't see as much as I think I will, but I have never been one to hold back my vote when I felt it was deserved (I know that you are though... so that really shouldn't speak to either of our alignments)

[mail-mi]

Woody tried to put the blue half of a key with the red half, but it wasn't working. Neither would the keys unlock the locks without the other half. They needed to find the other keys, and quickly.

Vote Count 3.1

Gveoniz (1): sudgy
sudgy (1): 2.71828.....
liopoil (1): yuma
Not Voting (4): Voltaire, liopoil, Gveoniz, Jimmmmm

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 3 ends Tuesday, November 26th at 7 pm FT.

[2.71828.....]

Overview first and then thoughts throughout the day as I form them more completely

Yuma/Liopoil - Interesting interaction today.  It is beginning to feel like the today's lynch is coming down to liopoil or yuma (a couple people took me and sudgy off the table, gveo and jimmmm would be lurker lynches to some extent and I don't know if anyone really wants to do that again).  So we have this great interaction between the top two lynch candidates.
Liopoil hasn't voted for yuma yet, but did put him as the #1 suspect for being Eevee's partner.  And the (shared) #1 suspect to be Robz partner.  Basically #1 suspect to be scum.  Yuma has voted Liopoil already, but I don't really see a case built around a specific scum partner, but rather just as regular scum.  He came to the vote through PoE+some other stuff that I will let him explain further as he gets the time.  Babies make life crazy. 

Sudgy - Hasn't responded yet except to say he has some notes down and has been busy.  I respect that.  Posting a delayed, well thought out post that has great content is better than posting a quicker post that doesn't reflect what you are actually thinking.  This is true for town or scum.  I am just looking forward to some good content.

Jimmmmmm - Time difference, subbing in, busy schedule.  Got it.  When pressured by Voltaire some you responded here then continued on and posted some good stuff for the next hour even though Voltaire gave you the go-ahead to get to bed.  I read that as town trying to help out where he can to avoid being mislynched.  Now, I don't necessarily agree with the read on Gveo, and would love to see more one yuma/liopoil, especially the recent exchange of posts that they had (reply 1138 through 1160).  Hopefully you can get some good reads down sometime this weekend.

Gveoniz - Not much.  He is not my biggest fan right now.  I am fine with that.  I want some content on Sudgy/Liopoil/Yuma though.  Specifically Liopoil and Yuma if you don't feel that you have time to do all three.  Even if you have to do what sudgy is doing and gather thoughts over a period of time and then post all at once so that you don't come across as something you don't intend that is fine.  Take some time, gather your thoughts, and give us some good content.  Just not too much time.  As much as I would hate to do a lurker lynch today, I would not hesitate to add my vote if we head in that direction unless we get some good stuff from you.

2.7 - Vanilla Townie.  My only weapon is my vote.  I hope to use it wisely today.

Voltaire - for completion's sake: Doctor

[2.71828.....]

Ok.  I have done some more thinking and really can't make up my mind between yuma and liopoil who I think is more scummy.  Sudgy has yet to respond, but thats all right for now.  Gveo and Jimmmm, not really feeling it.

As I mentioned in the V/LA thread, my current status leaves me with no computer at home.  I will be able to follow the game on my kindle, and maybe post a vote or a really short something, but don't expect much at all.  However, I do want to leave you all with something to discuss.

vote: no lynch

What will happen in a no lynch:

1) Best case scenario: Scum kill each other overnight. 

2) Look at our current status.  5 town, 2 mafia.  If we have a mislynch + two townies die, we are now at 4 players, 1 ice, 1 fire, 2 town.  A precarious position.  If we do not lynch at all, we are now at worst still have 5 players with 3 townies.  A better position than our worst case scenario to include a mislynch

3) We learn more stuff after N3.  We will now have two more kills to analyze.  We will be able to narrow down our lynchpool.  From what I read, we really don't know much.  The doctor even said he does not know who the remaining two mafia are.  I really don't either.  I think we may find one in yuma/liopoil but finding them both there would be happy coincidence in my opinion. 

Now, before we do a lynch or no lynch, I still expect to hear from sudgy, jimmmmm, and gveo who are currently in my "lurker" category.  I also want to hear more from liopoil (he said he was skipping his analysis of yuma for now, I trust he is coming back to it) and yuma (further his thoughts about liopoil more than just PoE).  But since I will not really be able to post any real content this weekend I wanted to put this out now.

[Voltaire]

Well I just reread Jimmmm. I am interested to hear what voltaire has to say about Jimmm being similar to HP. I can't remember that game very well.

I do think jimmm coming out pressing me today for emotions was scummy, but looking over day1 and day2 there just isn't a lot.... like just really hard to analyze stuff. Day1 there is nothing and day2 the main thing that I got was that Jimmmm was basically willing to sell his vote to the highest bidder. Just so little effort (mostly based off VLA stuff I guess) that reminded me a lot! of Jimmmm in Bankers. (note for those that didn't play that Jimmmm was a pretty heavy lurker in that game for the early days at least and really didn't do much of anything except defend himself (because of VLA issues and heavy suspicion by town)... he turned out to be town and had to fight off basically all of town wanting to mislynch him and was a huge distraction.... that is the wagon on Jimmmm was a distraction... not that Jimmmm himself was) So I don't know about here.

I feel like Jimmmm gave more of an effort in HP... or at least really wanted to give more of an effort. Here, he just isn't.

I kinda feel like I am getting to the point of PoE liopoil.

I am out. Sudgy and 2.7 I think are out. Voltaire is out. Jimmm I don't feel too confident about. So between gveo and liopoil I think i would go with liopoil.

His increased activity makes me wonder if he is scum realizing he needs to step up his game if he wants to survive.

vote: liopoil

The rest of town, please listen very carefully and remember this tomorrow:

I agree with pretty much everything that has been said here by yuma (with the exception of the stuff about Jimmmmm, I'll cover that elsewhere). However, I have noticed that yuma seems to be mirroring me in a subtle way. He is making arguments he knows I'll be pre-disposed to like (such as claiming that scum can't afford to let people become consensus town reads). There is a problem with that in this game though - town can probably afford at least one since each scum needs to kill the other one first. He is also agreeing with pretty much all of my reads, and not calling me out for much of anything really.

So what does this mean?

It means that, for multiple reasons, I think that yuma is town. For one, I see absolutely no reason why scum!yuma would hammer faust (yuma has stated that he likes to play conservative as scum). WIFOM always possible, of course. But I am always over-wary of yuma (we just lost a game for town by being convinced the other was scum - Game of Thrones mafia if you want to read it), and so I can convince myself of the above being true.

What this means is that I am not going to advocate lynching yuma today, nor will I vote him. I have just shot town, and myself, in the foot too many times seeing scum!yuma lurking in the shadows when he's not really there. However, I want the rest of the town to be aware that this might be happening and look at yuma closely tomorrow should I die tonight.

I'll go into the odds of that happening in a bit. I am not caught up on the thread, btw.

[Voltaire]

2.7 makes an interesting point about no-lynching. Let's work through all possible outcomes for today, assuming that our odds of each happening are pure random:

We lynch town:

• This is most likely (4/6 chance)
• I will likely survive overnight as scum shoot for each other again
• I will have another chance to protect someone
• Then, three things can happen:
• One scum dies, one town dies
• D4 it's 1 scum, 2 VT, 1 IC Doc. Pretty great
• Two town die
• D4 it's 2 scum, 1 VT, 1 IC Doc.
• If we then lynch scum, we lose. Because the remaining scum kills me in the night and endgames the VT.
• If we lynch the VT, we insta-lose.
• If we no-lynch, we have to hope that the scum take each other out. That will be our only option.
• Two scum die (game over, town wins)

We lynch scum:

• This is least likely (2/6 odds)
• I will die tonight as the remaining scum takes me out
• D4 will open as 1 scum, 4 VT. Amazing.

We no-lynch:

• I will likely survive overnight as scum shoots for each other again.
• Three things can happen:
• 2 town die
• D4 opens as 2 scum, 2 VT, 1 IC Doc. Dicey, as a lynch of town ends the game as long as scum don't kill each other overnight. But there's a high chance that scum take each other out and win the game for town. Actually, I think in this one scum would want to claim (!!!) and try to agree on who kills me, and who kills the town. But then I save the town...but they kill me (if they can trust each other)...and they lynch the VT the next day...meaning that Fire Mafia wins. So Ice mafia has no incentive to work together. Which means...wow, can someone else help me work through this situation?
• 1 scum, 1 town die
• D4 opens as 1 scum, 3 VT, 1 IC Doc. Amazing.
• 2 scum die (insta-win)

I...might actually see the argument for no-lynch. I would likely everyone to check this and see if I am making the right assumptions. Are there any situations where it makes sense for the mafia to try to take me out, and they no-kill on accident by duplicating kills?

[2.71828.....]

The only thing I might add to your different scenarios is the possibility of you preventing a NK (in all different scenarios).  Or they could both target the same person that they view as scummy who is actually town and that town member basically becomes another IC (I assume that we would learn that they were double targeted at night.  unlikely situation though).

[Voltaire]

Actually hold up...I'm thinking about this scenario more.

We lynch town:

• This is most likely (4/6 chance)
• Two town die
• D4 it's 2 scum, 1 VT, 1 IC Doc.
• If we lynch the VT, we insta-lose.

We don't insta-lose. Because it's 2 scum, 1 IC Doc heading into night. Scum want to kill me. But if they both try to kill me, no kill goes through. So they have to shoot for each other. So we win. Which increases the odds that scum is shooting for the other scum at night, which leads to better things for us overall. So scum will want to avoid this at all costs. Which means scum will want to lynch scum during the day. If that happens town loses. So in this scenario town absolutely wants to lynch town.

*brain explodes*

Right? I think so...

[2.71828.....]

mail-mi, will flavor tell us who a person is if they do get double targeted and thus escape free?

I don't know how this situation has worked in the past/how it is supposed to work.

[Voltaire]

(I assume that we would learn that they were double targeted at night.  unlikely situation though).

Almost certainly not. We'll just be told there wasn't a kill. Right mods? If scum target the same player at night, will flavor indicate that the next day?

[Voltaire]

Mods, what happens if everyone is dead at the end of the game?

I think I see at least one situation where this could happen.

[2.71828.....]

I actually think it works in town's favor to keep both scum alive going into the night.  Why?  We can actually learn stuff from the night kills.  If we lynch scum, Voltaire is clearly going to die tonight.  And the last scum can hide as a VT for a while and maybe win.

And just went through another game where they were very vocal about doc not claiming and one of the mafia one. Not saying that it was caused by that, but it appears that no claiming seems to be the norm that they arrived at in the two games I looked at, but it appeared to be based off the status quo that claiming was bad as they didn't really delve into whether it was good or bad the way we have.

PS: I looked at the two most recent games.

I just looked through the game you mention here (Open 476).  Town lynched Ice mafia on Day 1; the Doctor stopped a kill Night 1; the Doctor claimed Day 2; town lynched the other Ice mafia Day 2; the Doctor, of course, died Night 2; town lynched Fire Mafia Day 3... and then kept on mislynching until the last Fire Mafia won.

I do note that one of the most vocal opponents to the idea of the Doctor claiming was one of the Ice mafia goons.  And then after the Doctor claimed on Day 2, that opponent was lynched (and flipped scum) that same day.

The game specifics aren't too important about how they got there, but they ended up with only one mafia who was able to successfully hide the rest of the game.  We are doing better right now since our doctor is still alive, but I think it is much easier for one mafia to hide than for two of them to hide.

If we no lynch or lynch town, scum have to decide if they want to continue targeting the other scum team or go after the doctor and risk their own death.

[Voltaire]

The game specifics aren't too important about how they got there, but they ended up with only one mafia who was able to successfully hide the rest of the game.  We are doing better right now since our doctor is still alive, but I think it is much easier for one mafia to hide than for two of them to hide.

If we no lynch or lynch town, scum have to decide if they want to continue targeting the other scum team or go after the doctor and risk their own death.

There's nothing wrong with the game becoming a "pure" social deduction game. Of course scum can still win, but so can town. The odds are even in town's favor, I'd say, since we'd know which specific partner we're looking for.

[Voltaire]

WOW. Almost every one of these scenarios is absolute bonkersville.

[2.71828.....]

Ok.  I am repeating what Voltaire said in a different format

Scenario time:

1. We lynch scum. doctor dies
4 VT, 1 scum.   If we get a mislynch, we move down to 2 VT, 1 scum for final skirmish.  At this point, if one of the town members misplaces their vote, scum jumps on it and wins.  Both town would have to target scum correctly.  Not impossible, but dangerous.

2. We lynch town.  scum/VT die
2 VT, Doctor, 1 scum.  If we get a mislynch, we lose.  scum NK the doctor and it is over.

3. We lynch town.  scum/doctor die
3 VT, 1 scum.  If we get a mislynch, we lose.  scum NK another town member and it is over.

4. We lynch town.  VT/VT die
1 VT, Doctor, Ice, and Fire.  Scary for everyone.  This game just got really interesting.  Analyzing this situation can go in another post.

5. We lynch town.  VT/Doctor die
2 VT, Ice, Fire.  Scary for everyone.  This game just got really interesting.  Analyzing this situation can go in another post.

6. We no lynch.  scum/VT die
3 VT, Doctor, 1 scum.  If we get a mislynch, we move down to 2 VT, 1 scum after NK on the doctor.  Same situation as in (1)

7. We no lynch. VT/VT die
2 VT, Doctor, 1 ice, 1 fire.  Scary for everyone.  This game just got really interesting.  Analyzing this situation can go in another post.

8. We no lynch.  VT/Doctor die
3 VT, 1 ice, 1 fire.  Scary for everyone.  This game just got really interesting.  Analyzing this situation can go in another post.

9. We no lynch. scum/doctor die
4 VT, 1 scum.  If we get a mislynch, we move down to 2 VT, 1 scum after NK on the doctor.  Same situation as in (1)


If I missed a case, tell me. 
The thing that sticks out to me is that no matter what, if we no lynch today we are still able to have a mislynch D4 and win.

Most likely situations in order most likely to least likely (my opinion): 6,2,1, (9 and 3), (4,5, and 7)