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[liopoil]

Eevee, Jessie Lot's O' Huggin' Bear, an Ice Mafia Goon, was burned in the night!

Robz888, Slinky Dog Stinky Pete, a Fire Mafia Goon, was frozen in the night!

-If there are only 1 Ice mafia goon and 1 Fire mafia goon left alive at the end of the game, this is what will happen:

If it's Big Baby and Big Al, Fire mafia wins.
If it's Big Baby and Stinky Pete, Ice mafia wins.
If it's Lot's O' Huggin' Bear and Big Al, Ice mafia wins
If it's Lot's O' Huggin' Bear and Stinky Pete, Fire mafia wins.

looks like the big scum are the ones we're looking for, and that robz's team wins if the two scum are left alive. This doesn't matter much yet (in terms of how we should play), but it may later.

[liopoil]

"Well," Woody said, "I don't believe the night could have gone better for us."

pretty much 

I was really getting back into this game at the end of D2... but then arch flipped town and I was feeling a bit apathetic about the game again. But not I'm feeling much more interested, lots new stuff to look at! less flimsy reads! plus we actually have a decent chance of winning!

I'll analyze the mafia at some point, but back to Vote: Gveoniz for his drastic differences in playstyle.

And, yay, us!

don't really like this because while I suspect Gveoniz too, looking at stuff based on the two scum flips we have will be much more effective.

I'll look at those, and maybe change my vote then as well.  This is for now.

well, I get that, but why put down a vote you really don't know about at all? it's like RVS ish.

[sudgy]

"Well," Woody said, "I don't believe the night could have gone better for us."

pretty much 

I was really getting back into this game at the end of D2... but then arch flipped town and I was feeling a bit apathetic about the game again. But not I'm feeling much more interested, lots new stuff to look at! less flimsy reads! plus we actually have a decent chance of winning!

I'll analyze the mafia at some point, but back to Vote: Gveoniz for his drastic differences in playstyle.

And, yay, us!

don't really like this because while I suspect Gveoniz too, looking at stuff based on the two scum flips we have will be much more effective.

I'll look at those, and maybe change my vote then as well.  This is for now.

well, I get that, but why put down a vote you really don't know about at all? it's like RVS ish.

At the moment, I think Gveo is scum.  My reads might change based on what I see looking back though.

[yuma]

voted on Robz: Voltgloss, Voltgloss, Voltgloss, 2.7, Eevee, faust, sudgy (end of RVS votes I think...?), faust, Day2: Voltaire, Archetype, Voltaire

Votes on Eevee: Day1: 0; Day2: Robz

Well that was extremely unproductive.... as the only players alive (that aren't ICs) to vote for our the two dead scum were sudgy and 2.7 in RVS...

[sudgy]

So, uh, could we not have only three people talking?

[yuma]

So, uh, could we not have only three people talking?

2.7 has been looking at the thread now for a while not saying anything....

[2.71828.....]

So, uh, could we not have only three people talking?

2.7 has been looking at the thread now for a while not saying anything....

Hey, it takes me a while to think things through.  I was also distracted by people.  All I have right now is similar to what yuma said about being encouraged by the night.  I was discouraged by how D2 ended, but am feeling invigorated by the night's events.

[2.71828.....]

so, we have more information!

N1, eevee was on the team that killed ashersky
N1, robz was on the team that killed voltgloss
N2, eevee was on the team that killed robz
N2, robz was on the team that killed eevee

Well, I just finished reviewing both days specifically for input about the NKs, and came back with basically nothing. 

robz team killing voltgloss: No one really came out and said anything bad about voltgloss D1.  Voltgloss contributed well, asked a lot of questions (which Robz said is a town!gloss thing to do), and had somewhere between null to town reads from most everyone as far as I could gather from the reaction D2.  This was the only reaction Robz gave to the Voltgloss NK (he doesn't ever reply to Eevee's response here).  Now, Robz did have strong opinions in favor of the doctor claim, so we can ask would his partner come out more in favor (which doesn't give us much), against (liopoil), or Jimmmmm who couldn't say anything because NHS was still around not saying anything.  However, I wouldn't expect my scumpartner to bring attention to the fact that I had been lurking, but I don't know how bold Robz would be in calling out his partner though this does tend to make me think that they are not scum buddies.

Now Team Eevee going for ashersky?  As I said here, the ashersky NK really surprised me.  Also, it is hard to get much out of Eevee from D1 because he was fairly lurky.  He probably knew he would be able to get by D1 being pretty quiet, but not pull off the same stunt D2.  The only thing that might have possibly pulled him to an Ash NK that I could find is this where Ash question's Eevee's behavior but doesn't call it scummy.  Maybe it was enough to make Eevee think that Ash was looking at him a little too much.

As far as the N2 kills:  Robz and Eevee were at each other for a bit before they established a truce of sorts with Robz contenting himself to a null to slight scum read and Eevee gives this reply that basically implies that he still thinks Robz is scum but he basically dropped the case after that post as discussion changed topics.

Now the differences in N1/N2 kills:  N1 seems very conservative to me.  Both Robz and Eevee teams look to be just testing the waters and hoping for a shot in the dark to hit the opposing team, while N2 seems much more driven off reads that day.

What do we learn: Almost nothing.  N1-> look like shots in the dark.  N2-> Is anyone really too surprised that they would target each other?  The only thing interesting from N2 kills is that it seems to me that Eevee and Robz were both calling the shots.  Newbie partners maybe?  (not me, of course- I am town)  It doesn't have to be the case, but it does make you wonder. 

I think we might learn more about them/their partners looking at who they voted/didn't vote for, but that is not for tonight.  It is too late and I need to sleep but as yuma called me out for looking at the thread without posting, I figured I should get at least one good thought in.

[Jimmmmm]

Excellent! I guess if we can't catch scum ourselves we can always rely on them to take each other out.

Don't have a lot of time now, I'll post more when I can.

[Voltaire]

Eh, don't like an arch lynch.

vote: Robz

and this.....

volt you were right but did nothing to show us why you were right.

Yeah, I know. I'll say three things:

1. Whenever Robz discredits me, he is scum.
2. I didn't hate the arch lynch as much as the faust lynch, so there is no IC rage here. I second yuma's calls of WTF to arch himself, just less strongly.
3. I am now only alive in one serious game, so you're going to get a lot more of me today. I promise.
4. The game now looking winnable probably has something to do with it. Thank you so much mafia, that was amazing.
5. I realized I don't like playing IC, because trying to avoid my own lynch as town (which is usually a good thing for town) turns out to be a big motivating factor in my interest in the game.

That was five things.

Anyway, I agree this game looks very winnable. And now the teams have to WIFOM killing me tonight! And I get at least one more doc protection in. This is pretty great.

[Gveoniz]

3). I was not the only one who thought this. Ashersky was very vocal about how odd Eevee was acting.

Eevee's different this game.  Changing up a meta?  Lots of null reads and jokes, no buddying OR scum reads.  Hmmmm...

And ashersky died.

This might be able to explain why was ash killed. (He was killed by eevee's team) But this would be a very weak reason to kill someone, considering that they should want to kill a scum rather than a town threat.

[shraeye]

/reallylatetag

[Gveoniz]

2.71828 seem to be pretty close to robz D2 (possible behavior for a new scum not distancing from his partner, but I guess any kind of behavior is possible). He come to defend robz after robz's "discredit" on the IC, then also say that the IC is discrediting himself.

Voltaire, do robz usually discredit you with reasons that would help his team? or do he just randomly want to discredit you?

If there is a actually scum reason, my hypothesis is that he might have shared that reason with partner 2.7(if he is actually scum), therefore making him a bit more incline to discredit Voltaire.

2.7 also thinks that 2 points from robz against eevee that is not that convincing for me "convincing enough", which is slightly suspicious.

Therefore I am currently suspecting 2.7 (as robz's partner), but am not very sure.

------------------------------------------

And I will try to be more confident today and use less "I am not sure", "unable to feel" etc. Not because of the advise that might had came from my partner if I have one. If my action is really scummy, it is already too late trying to correct myself, I just don't want to continue saying the meaningless "not sure".
There are also more info to work with on D3, allowing me to be more certain.

[2.71828.....]

Excellent! I guess if we can't catch scum ourselves we can always rely on them to take each other out.

Don't have a lot of time now, I'll post more when I can.

Yeah, I am looking forward to the N3 scum kills scum for the town win.  (although I prefer lynching scum, it would make for a unique game if town mislynches every single time, but ends up winning.  Vets-has this ever actually happened?)

[Voltaire]

2.71828 seem to be pretty close to robz D2 (possible behavior for a new scum not distancing from his partner, but I guess any kind of behavior is possible). He come to defend robz after robz's "discredit" on the IC, then also say that the IC is discrediting himself.

Voltaire, do robz usually discredit you with reasons that would help his team? or do he just randomly want to discredit you?

If there is a actually scum reason, my hypothesis is that he might have shared that reason with partner 2.7(if he is actually scum), therefore making him a bit more incline to discredit Voltaire.

Well, he did it in M31 when I had pegged something like 4/5 of his teammates (actual numbers are probably different, but the point is that even though I wasn't exactly right I was unnaturally accurate in my reads, and that must have been extremely unnerving to Robz. Robz claims that he actually thought I was third-party scum in that game, though).

And now he's done it here.

Robz also said that he thinks we'll find more scum off faust's wagon than on. Therefore I think it is slightly more likely Robz's partner was also on-wagon (of course if they were off/on it'd be an easy thing to say, and if they were both on Robz would know this statement would be a risk after he flips).

[Voltaire]

Two things:

1. I want to gloat
2. I think this is more reason to believe that Robz's partner was also on faust. Why do this otherwise?

Robz's big post

Robz, first, you can't say

My reaction to this is "Well f--- you."

and then

Alright, I feel better having said all that... and I really hope you don't take it personally, Voltaire. I really wouldn't want to like reverse things and end up having you feel unwelcome. I hope that's not the case.

and expect me to believe you. Town or scum, you intended for me to take that big post personally. I mean, you said f--- you! You really can't get more personal unless you use real-life details about me.

But it's ok! Because I think you made that post to further your win-con. Because here's the thing. You, as scum, try to discredit me. Like in M31, where you said I was looking for kindergarten-level scum play. That had, for those listening, identified like 4/5 of Robz's team or something (note I don't think the play was actually kindergarten, it was very good, I mean, his team won and Robz deserves the MVP he got for it. More importantly, he beat me!). So how does scum!Robz discredit an IC here? All he's really got is emotions. Like those above, which really can't be in the same sentence if they're to be believed.

Also, for everyone saying I used inflammatory language, I did! About the lynch! Yes, absolutely, I understand those of you who say "but innately that also means you're talking about the people voting for the lynch," but I know there is a difference. Like I said, town voted to lynch faust. There's only 4 scum. It took more than 4 scum to lynch faust. We know that town players voted for faust.

All of this would be simpler if yuma hadn't hammered faust. Now it's a confusing mess. You have to understand my frustration with yuma, if he is town. If he is scum, then he's made a high-risk, high-reward action that appears to be paying off for him right now.

Like I said, I'll happily hunt for the rest of the scum with everyone else. I'd prefer we lynch yuma, of course, but let's not waste the day!

I also claim no perfect record. I have participated in bad mislynches. I have been manipulated by scum. I have been targeted by ICs. For anyone who doesn't like my play here, either try to improve it and help town win without telling me to fuck myself, or just wait until a future game when you get to be one. 

[2.71828.....]

2.71828 seem to be pretty close to robz D2 (possible behavior for a new scum not distancing from his partner, but I guess any kind of behavior is possible). He come to defend robz after robz's "discredit" on the IC, then also say that the IC is discrediting himself.

Voltaire, do robz usually discredit you with reasons that would help his team? or do he just randomly want to discredit you?

If there is a actually scum reason, my hypothesis is that he might have shared that reason with partner 2.7(if he is actually scum), therefore making him a bit more incline to discredit Voltaire.

2.7 also thinks that 2 points from robz against eevee that is not that convincing for me "convincing enough", which is slightly suspicious.

Therefore I am currently suspecting 2.7 (as robz's partner), but am not very sure.

As far as the two points go: I responded to Eevee about them here, and you can see his response and my additional comment here.

As far as Robz buddying: If you want to see it as that, go ahead I can't stop you.  That is not what it was.  As far as the IC thing I was disappointed by what I saw as a rage-vote and really just wanted Voltaire to move past that so we could get work done on D2. (see here and here)  My response to Eevee covers other D2 buddying accusations that we were working together against Eevee. 

[2.71828.....]

Also: Voltaire, gloat away.  You were spot-on about calling Robz out as scum.  I don't know if that is what you were going to go back to towards the end of D2, but you were right.

[Voltaire]

I don't really want to get into it again. I think the thing that most gets under my skin is having my town play criticized. Often it's the "lazy" accusation; people say I'm not doing anything when I'm doing more than half the players, all the time. But now and then I get upset when people tell me I'm playing badly, which is what Voltaire said here over my faust vote. Which I don't think I was stupid at all.

In M31 there was certainly a strategic component to my outrage, I' not denying that at all. Still, I did really think my case that he was SK was good, and it was just being totally ignored by everyone but Galz, even as Voltaire continued to do all the things I was calling him out on (relentless sheeping, constant OMGUS).

But yeah I really don't want to get into this all again, I'm like moving past it now. If you find that scummy, well, oh well. I just don't want to talk about it.

*whistles* 

Seriously though, I think this is actual evidence of who Robz's partner is more likely to be. I do think this is very likely that his partner is also on faust's wagon, because I can't see why Robz would do this otherwise. We now know he was scum with an ulterior motive - there was no town play to criticize.

[2.71828.....]

To follow up on the doctor 
Here are all the people who voted faust: Robz888, liopoil, Archetype, ashersky, sudgy, Yuma, Voltgloss
So if Voltaire is right we have liopoil, sudgy, and yuma as suspects right now.

[Voltaire]

Whatever faust's case based on an ongoing game was (it was Game of Thrones, and it's over now), he was right. Applause, faust.

Oh, and guess who helped drive the faust mislynch? ROBZ!!! raaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaage...

Here's some data points that two mafia flips give us:

Post count, from start of game to doctor claim

37 ashersky
31 Voltgloss
24 yuma
17 2.7...
14 Voltaire
13 Robz
9 Eevee
8 liopoil
7 faust
5 sudgy
4 Archetype
2 Gveoniz
1 NHS

(Updated) Opinions about whether or not the doctor should claim, prior to my claim:

Claim D1
ashersky
yuma
Voltaire
sudgy
Gveoniz
Eevee (initially anti-claim)
Robz
2.7 (initially anti-claim)

Claim D2
Archetype

Uncertain
Voltgloss
faust (initially pro-claim)

Anti-claim
liopoil

No opinion expressed
NHS

faust (7): sudgy, ashersky, Voltgloss, Robz888, Archetype, liopoil, yuma
sudgy (1): faust
Archetype (2): Voltaire, 2.71828.....

Not Voting (3): Jimmmmm, Eevee, Gveoniz

Gveoniz (1): Jimmmmm,
Archetype (6): 2.71828....., Eevee, Robz888, sudgy, yuma, liopoil
Robz888 (1): Voltaire
2.71828..... (1): Archetype

Not Voting (1): Gveoniz

sudgy appears unlikely to be Robz's parter, based on Robz's stance that you don't bus in a 2-man game (though Robz has done it himself) and going after sudgy hard D1. Jimmmmm is a little less likely, given Robz's vote on him at the end of D2 (though this isn't nearly as big, as Robz could have artfully changed if needed I bet). Robz returns to sudgy D2, so that's more.

I hereby declare sudgy the least likely person to be Robz's partner.

I'm going to do another re-read for Eevee next. Just wanted to get this post up first.

We really, really have to thank two high-level scum players for taking each other out. It's the only reason we're back in this game!

[Voltaire]

To follow up on the doctor 
Here are all the people who voted faust: Robz888, liopoil, Archetype, ashersky, sudgy, Yuma, Voltgloss
So if Voltaire is right we have liopoil, sudgy, and yuma as suspects right now.

Correct, and I don't think it's sudgy. That leaves lio and yuma. Lio and yuma are both pretty plausible. Yuma would be explained by Robz's attempts to discredit me (at the time I was voting yuma, after all). Lio would be explained if Robz wanted to lynch lurkers, but didn't pick lio (which is what he did).

I have an opinion of which of the two of them I find more likely, but I'm not going to say who it is right now.

[Voltaire]

one last comment and then i'll shut up and let someone else say something...

we are at a really nice place because players that are alive can't be partners...

This should help a lot, because when I play and read I am constantly distracted by wondering if interactions are between two players on the same team and it nags at me and ultimately distracts from scum hunting... so remember any two players can't be partners with each other. one might be scum, but it would be an interaction between a townie an a scummy...

or a scummy and a scummy I guess... but they wouldn't know that!

I'll echo this from yuma. It's important to remember.

Also, as a happy reminder, the four town players out there have 2/5 (40%!) odds of getting the lynch right today (even though you had 50% odds yesterday). So I bet you can get it right this time. Which means I'll die tonight, but that would be such a happy outcome. 

[Voltaire]

However, I wouldn't expect my scumpartner to bring attention to the fact that I had been lurking, but I don't know how bold Robz would be in calling out his partner though this does tend to make me think that they are not scum buddies.

For the record, yes. Robz would absolutely call out his partner for lurking. You shouldn't eliminate lio as Robz's partner for this reason, I strongly believe.

[2.71828.....]

Here are some quick facts on those 3
liopoil: 57 total posts date.  Anti-doctor claim.  Put Faust at L-1.  Has been pretty under the radar all game.

Sudgy: 63 total posts to date.  Pro-doctor claim.  D1 Sudgy pressure vote and Sudgy/Faust controversy brought some early heat.  Came out against Gveo for the change in playstyle from game to game.

Yuma: 149 total posts to date.  Pro-doctor claim.  Hammered Faust.  really brought out the argument against gveo but then later was satisfied with Gveo's response.  Helped push through the Archetype lynch