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[Eevee]

I recall Voltgloss having some strong opinions. Should go back to check what they were in the light of someone wanting to kill him.

If we're going to scumhunt based on kills, I think a more effective way would be to look at who suspected voltgloss/ashersky.

and who they suspected as well?

[liopoil]

wow. For me and all other non-voltaire townies, HALF of our potential suspects are scum. That's pretty crazy.

In fact, if we lynch scum today, and two more townies die tonight, we're at 3 scum, 4 town. If we lynch a scum on the other team after that, and another two town deaths, that 2 scum, 2 town. From there we probably no lynch or maybe even purposefully lynch a townie, and the game is in the hands of scum.

So the only way we can force a win is if we lynch scum today, their partner tomorrow, and the two other scum in the two days after that. Otherwise, we are counting on scum to shoot each other/shoot the same player/voltaire to save someone successfully.

[liopoil]

I recall Voltgloss having some strong opinions. Should go back to check what they were in the light of someone wanting to kill him.

If we're going to scumhunt based on kills, I think a more effective way would be to look at who suspected voltgloss/ashersky.

and who they suspected as well?

you mean who voltgloss/ashersky suspected? sure, that could work, but I think scum is more likely to shoot based on who they think the other scum are than who they want dead.

[2.71828.....]

I really don't get the ashersky NK.  I had a really clear town read on ash, and if the mafia wanted to target town members (rather than the other mafia team like we thought they might) then they could have easily just gone after Voltaire who I have an even stronger town read on.  And a Voltaire NK would have rid them of the doctor.

So either the mafia developed a hunch somewhere along the way that Ash was mafia and just playing a such a great town game that he had everyone confused, or they deliberately targeted town members.

[liopoil]

I really don't get the ashersky NK.  I had a really clear town read on ash, and if the mafia wanted to target town members (rather than the other mafia team like we thought they might) then they could have easily just gone after Voltaire who I have an even stronger town read on.  And a Voltaire NK would have rid them of the doctor.

So either the mafia developed a hunch somewhere along the way that Ash was mafia and just playing a such a great town game that he had everyone confused, or they deliberately targeted town members.

Yeah, I didn't suspect ash either. but maybe someone did...

[liopoil]

I really don't get the ashersky NK.  I had a really clear town read on ash, and if the mafia wanted to target town members (rather than the other mafia team like we thought they might) then they could have easily just gone after Voltaire who I have an even stronger town read on.  And a Voltaire NK would have rid them of the doctor.

So either the mafia developed a hunch somewhere along the way that Ash was mafia and just playing a such a great town game that he had everyone confused, or they deliberately targeted town members.

Yeah, I didn't suspect ash either. but maybe someone did...

But this is a case where looking at who ash suspected is likely more effective, because I doubt anyone voiced suspicion of ashersky.

[Robz888]

I really don't get the ashersky NK.  I had a really clear town read on ash, and if the mafia wanted to target town members (rather than the other mafia team like we thought they might) then they could have easily just gone after Voltaire who I have an even stronger town read on.  And a Voltaire NK would have rid them of the doctor.

So either the mafia developed a hunch somewhere along the way that Ash was mafia and just playing a such a great town game that he had everyone confused, or they deliberately targeted town members.

I agree an ash kill is weird, because ash was very much his town self here. And while ash's plans I think tend to work out, I don't think ash's reads are like above average or particularly threatening to scum. So why kill him?

The things I can think of:

1) He was like razor focused on a scum Day 1 (we will need to check)
2) It's new people who didn't know not to kill him (the problem here is that would definitely single out Gveoniz and 2.7, but 2.7 seems acutely aware that killing ash does not make sense)
3) Scum team just really didn't want to duplicate kill with other scum team

[Robz888]

I recall Voltgloss having some strong opinions. Should go back to check what they were in the light of someone wanting to kill him.

What were they?

[Voltaire]

Rage vote: yuma. The faust lynch was (almost) the dumbest fucking thing ever. I wanted to get everyone on the table to see who wanted to out themselves as willing to mislynch. Why do you think I was doing ABCD? I am only voting for someone on the faust wagon today.

Speaking of which, can we please get an official final votecount mail-mi? I don't see one.

[Robz888]

Oh yeah, I forgot about that.

Why the derphammer, yuma?

[Robz888]

I hugely disagree it was the dumbest thing ever. Faust had a scummy statement that he failed to give any mitigating explanation for whatsoever.

But I wasn't remotely ready to lynch him.

[Robz888]

I'm pretty sure we'll find more scum OFF the faust wagon, but I need to know exactly who was on the damn wagon in the first place.

[Voltaire]

I hugely disagree it was the dumbest thing ever. Faust had a scummy statement that he failed to give any mitigating explanation for whatsoever.

No, faust had a statement no scum would ever make. It was not a scummy statement. sudgy's "trap" was of mediocre quality. Sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn't. There was no damn reason to quicklynch faust and it was absolutely not true that he was the "only" lynch we would arrive at. Because tonight what should be happening is that it's the end of D1, I declare a faust lynch off the table and offer up those who think he is scum as the lynch candidates, and we see who is willing to listen to me/who thinks I am on the right track, and take it from there. Now we have to do that today, and two townies are dead.

[Voltaire]

You were, Robz! You're on my list. 

[2.71828.....]

The final 3 faust votes (I strongly believe that one of these is mafia):

hmmm... hmmm... (there isn't a need to state intent to hammer lio. None at all...)

hammer time. faust is getting lynched anyways, that is pretty obvious. Maybe I am completely wrong about faust. I hate the idea of a player getting lynched two days in a row. But sometimes that is just the way it is.

But he is going to get lynched today. I don't really like it, but that's how it goes, so why prolong the inevitable....

vote: faust

Now at least day2 will be going when I am around a bit more (note... this isn't why I am doing this, but is certainly a small, but very selfish part.

I'm back again... but not for all that long and I will only have phone access tomorrow. I should have popped in earlier today.

[bunch of other stuff]

Vote: faust. I'm sure enough that he is my preferred lynch now. And I don't have see why putting him at L-1 is a bad thing. However, reminder, This is L-1. Do not hammer without stating intent prior and giving everyone a chance to weigh in if possible.

Alright. I pick B: Town/Scum. Mostly because it's the most likely thing for there to be. I would not mind lynching from one of these two, but I prefer faust since he's acting fairly similar to how he did in Modern Community

Vote: faust since NHS will most likely be replaced.

The liopoil vote was careless (in my opinion) to put Faust at L-1, but I really don't get a huge scum-read from the vote, especially because he specifically told people to post intent to hammer before they hammered.

The Yuma vote?  Seems like a rage-vote (slightly) since people were starting to accuse him of being on the same scum-team as Faust.  He clearly knew he wasn't, because Faust was town, but that doesn't mean that Yuma just thought he was on the other mafia team.  I see a decent scum-read on yuma here

Now Archetypes vote looks like an unexplained wagon vote.  Really nothing to it, but it was a "safe" vote because everyone was doing it and it only put Faust at L-2.  Now, when I see unexplained votes, I think scum.

vote: Archetype

[Robz888]

I hugely disagree it was the dumbest thing ever. Faust had a scummy statement that he failed to give any mitigating explanation for whatsoever.

No, faust had a statement no scum would ever make. It was not a scummy statement. sudgy's "trap" was of mediocre quality. Sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn't. There was no damn reason to quicklynch faust and it was absolutely not true that he was the "only" lynch we would arrive at. Because tonight what should be happening is that it's the end of D1, I declare a faust lynch off the table and offer up those who think he is scum as the lynch candidates, and we see who is willing to listen to me/who thinks I am on the right track, and take it from there. Now we have to do that today, and two townies are dead.

There's no point arguing this... but I'm going to any way. I think my xplanation for what it was--a note to himself--was better than his explanation, which was no explanation at all. I agree sudgy's trap was nothing, I actually forgot about that, mayeb you can catch people who thought that was something.

[Voltaire]

And posts it in the thread? No. Never happens. Not in 3095u309520396820393 million years.

vote: Robz for trying to pretend he didn't participate in an egregious "scumslip" nightmare mislynch.

[Robz888]

Whatever.

[sudgy]

I'm going to Vote: yuma for the quickhammer.  You robbed town of precious discussion time, that's all you did.  Now, if it was getting later in the day, I would have been fine with it (but Voltaire did say not to lynch yet).

[mail-mi]

Rage vote: yuma. The faust lynch was (almost) the dumbest fucking thing ever. I wanted to get everyone on the table to see who wanted to out themselves as willing to mislynch. Why do you think I was doing ABCD? I am only voting for someone on the faust wagon today.

Speaking of which, can we please get an official final votecount mail-mi? I don't see one.

Heh, yeah sorry I forgot about that. It's up now tho.

[Archetype]

Whatever.

Vote: Robz

[2.71828.....]

Ok.

10 people left, 5 VT (2.7, ____, ____, _____, _____), 1 Doc (Voltaire), and 4 scum on two different teams.

The two people who were mentioned the most as suspects D1 (not faust) were Sudgy and Yuma.  For the sake of my argument, lets say one of these is scum and because of the quickhammer call him yuma.

Now 5 VT (2.7, Sudgy, ____, _____, _____), 1 Doc (Voltaire), and 4 scum on two different teams (Yuma, ____, ____, ____)(four blanks rather than groups of two since we don't have info to really go for scumteams yet).

I have a town read on Robz based on his D1 play, and everyone can see that I think Archetype is scummy.  Now, I am not sure just how random the assignments are, but I can really see a newbie being on mafia (see Robz point 2 about the Ash NK-the first and third points are stretching it a bit--ash was on Faust since the sudgy episode before the "do not kill" thing--maybe on the third point but i doubt it), so we now have:
5 VT (2.7, Sudgy, Robz, _____, _____), 1 Doc (Voltaire), and 4 scum on two different teams (Yuma, Archetype, Gveoniz, ____)

But wait! Jimmmmm was also a "newbie" when roles were assigned (NHS), and I don't see more than one newbie being put as mafia.  And Gveoniz has seemed towny to me.  For example:

Voltaire - doc. Do not lynch, do not kill.

Why are you talking about "do not kill"?  Informing the other scum team not to kill him?

Err... I'm informing all scum teams not to kill him? They are all scumhunting in a way, so maybe they find reads lists helpful to find opposing scum. If I were scum, why would I want to inform the other scum team of anything? They would be a bigger threat to me than town.

I guess your explanation is reasonable, still feel really strange though.

That looks like a simple acceptance of a explanation.  More town than scum (especially newish player who doesn't want to cause too much controversy).  So, even without any real input from Jimmmm, for my little thinking through we have
5 VT (2.7, Sudgy, Robz, Gveoniz, _____), 1 Doc (Voltaire), and 4 scum on two different teams (Yuma, Archetype, Jimmmmm, ____)

Now only Eevee and liopoil left.  Both are right at the edge of being lurkers, but posted enough (and with enough content) to avoid that accusation D1 (although they better get more active here in D2).  Here I am just going off my gut:

(confident with those in italics-the ones I am comfortable with their placement I underlined)
5 VT (2.7, Sudgy, Robz, Gveoniz, Eevee), 1 Doc (Voltaire), and 4 scum on two different teams (Yuma, Archetype, Jimmmmm, liopoil)

Put into quiz format:
Want to Lynch: Archetype
Wouldn't mind lynching: Yuma
Wouldn't shed a tear over lynching: Sudgy, Eevee, Jimmmm, liopoil
Want to wait for D3 to decide: Robz, Gveoniz
Won't lynch: 2.7, Voltaire

I recognize this list is a little ambitious as well as being a little unscientific (read gut-feeling) but we need to start with something. 

[Archetype]

What I'm confused about yuma is that he defended faust, but then later hammered him since "It was going to happen anyways".  It's just so egregious that scum would never do it. But that could be the new thing. Scum doing outrageously scummy things but then are given a pass because 'scum would never be that obvious'.

[Archetype]

I'm pretty sure that at least two of Robz, 2.7, and yuma are scum and will lynch almost exclusively from that pool.

[sudgy]

But wait! Jimmmmm was also a "newbie" when roles were assigned (NHS), and I don't see more than one newbie being put as mafia.  And Gveoniz has seemed towny to me.

I don't have any comment on your whole post but this.  Mods don't choose who is mafia, they do it randomly.  Of course, odds are more vets will be scum than newbies, but you get my point.