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[mail-mi]

Weekends shmeekends. Get on guys!

As per VG's request, my list

PREFER:
Aire
Fuzzy for lurking (that's not normal)
shraeye

COULD:
Jimmm for lurking (but that's normal)
liopoil
nkirbit
Robz
asher

PROBABLY WON'T UNLESS I REALLY HAVE TO:
Gloss
yuma
Jorbles

WON'T:
UoS (I am treating him like an IC for the rest of the day)
mail-mi

I think that's everyone.

Sorry, jorbs should be in the could lunch category.

[EFHW]

/tag

[Eevee]

I think UoS is very likely to be town. If he was a SK, he for no reason just put himself out there to be killed by mafia, not good. Ditto for mafia (also could be counterclaimed). Frustrated town just makes the most sense. UoS, I really like your style of playing and I'm sure people finding you scummy is nothing personal, even if it feels a bit unfair. And fwiw, it IS sheeping when Robz does it.

[Eevee]

Anyway it got me thinking, I don't find Nkirbit scummy for that because I think Yuma, Ash, and I basically drew him into it, but I think what Voltgloss (see, I typed his full name, not that hard) was looking at is interesting: Scum have daychat, so how can we look for this impacting the thread.  I'm going to reread with that in mind, tomorrow or the next day or something, but what should I be looking for?

Voltyvoltyvoltglass?  Yuma?  Others?

vote: nkirbit for the scummiest reaction to ash's plan.  "Eh I won't be talking about this" followed by "here's me talking about this" smells a bit to me of his partner in daychat going "dude it will look suspicious if you totally refuse to engage with town in their main topic of discussion."

Blitz players will have the most experience addressing this question.  To my eye though, I would expect (1) daychat to have a mild reduction in the frequency with whcih mafia post in thread - both because their time needs to be split between two threads, and because they may be waiting for their compatriot to respond to questions in their daychat before posting on a topic; and (2) more instances of mafia players changing their minds in thread, as a result of their being able to adapt plans on the fly.

I totally agree with this too. The biggest effect will probably be scum being able to coordinate hammers / how they want to split themselves on the wagons and stuff. I think scum being able to coordinate their votes and defenses will make lynching scum day 1 SIGNIFICANTLY harder, because they can assign people to deflect scary looking wagons and don't have to bus "just to be sure".

[Eevee]

Voltgloss's deadline suggestions sound good to me, I approve.

It's truly terrible playing catch up, truly terrible. I'll do my best to form and articulate reads on everyone though:


UoS: the claimant, strong strong town read.

Voltgloss: The strongest nonclaimed town read (but I have a bias, his playstyle always reads towny to me). A lot of his posts I think hit the nail to the head, really good observation and analysis in my opinion.

liopoil - I think this is interesting, I feel he has two different personas, the one we are seeing here (I literally don't remember any of his posts), and then the much more controversial liopoil that gets into arguments with people (usually about theory, but still). Laying low is a scum trait, although I wouldn't expect scum lio to super lurk. He did anticipate being busy at the start of this game, though:

Well crap, this started, which means I am going to be behind. oh well. let's wait a bit before we massclaim, shall we? and I don't like the idea of our vig getting shot. we need our vig I think.

all in all I'm fairly null on lio. Maybe he just seems odd because he hasn't had time to post.

Robz: Wow, Robz has amazingly contributed even less than I have. I hadn't realized this at all. Vote: Robz The tone of the few posts is the kind of pleasant and constructive I still associate more with scum Robz. Scum read!

Jorbles: Reread him as well, nothing really stood out. Contributing, reasonable opinions, tried to build a case on UoS who I now "know" to be town. If I was reading this with the knowledge that Jorbles is scum, I'd be thinking "he is positioning himself well", but it's also reasonable town play.

nkirbit: I don't agree that his reaction to the theory talk was scummy - it was quite similar to my own, actually. I feel nkirbit is always heavily suspected day 1 (by others than myself), might be a playstyle thing. I find him contributions this far towny, no reason to suspect him really. I guess I would actually feel similarly about Jorbles and nkirbit, if it wasn't for the fact that Jorbles is not suspected at all and nkirbit is suspected a bit (that makes nkirbit townier and Jorbles scummier for me).

shraeye: I don't know how to read this guy. A lot of his posts seem to end in question marks. I haven't agreed with a lot of his posts, but I don't think that's much of an alignment tell.

mail-mi: Despite his relatively high post count, before his recent would/wouldn't post prompted by Voltgloss, the only thing he ever said about anyone in this game other than Voltaire was that he found me and shraeye scummy for lurking (no other explations). He sheeped yuma's very early Voltaire-case, then reread him on his own and found him slightly scummy again, keeping his vote there. To me mail-mi seems awfully passive, but continuing this line of thinking before the most recent game he was scum in ends is a bit dubious. Suffices to say, I don't find mail-mi towny at all.

yuma: I'm too lazy to reread the heavier contributors, partially because I don't think they make for optimal lynch targets anyways. yuma hasn't been the leader he sometimes is, but is still relatively high in the post count. As someone who lives by "especially day 1, I try to forget I'm scum and just play like I would as town", it's almost impossible to catch him day 1, I think he has given his honest opinions on theory stuff and called out suspicious behavior when he has seen some. I'll note that he doesn't seem overly towny to me like he sometimes does, but then add a caveat that scum has more incentive to try to do that. Null on yuma.

ashersky: I sympathize with yuma's "ash is trying to imitate his crazy plan town persona". Ash has a lot less posts than usual, but I don't know what if anything to make of that alignment-wise. The content of those posts however surprises me - ash has pretty exclusively only talked about plans, planning plans and finalizing plans. Like, very little interactions with anyone. Scum read.

Voltaire: Is contributing nicely, both to theory and to actually talking about other players. I see no reason to suspect him, although the "keep doing that" towny feel isn't overly strong either.

Scum reads:
Robz, mail-mi, ashersky

Would lynch:
liopoil, Jorbles, shraeye, (yuma)

Tentative town:
Voltaire, nkirbit, (yuma)

Town reads:
UoS, Voltgloss

[liopoil]

How do I not have the fewest posts on that post count. anyway, I really hope UoS is the vig... I agree he is unlikely to be scum.

[Robz888]

My VLA just ended. I am catching up now.

[Robz888]

Okay, I excerpted things I wanted to comment on... will start posting them now.

[Robz888]

mail-mi and Jorbles:  Top 3 scumreads from you, please.  Go.

Ooo, I already have a spreadsheet for this. I didn't want to give stuff away until I'd observed a little bit more as they're not that concrete yet.
1. UmbrageOfSnow: I completely agree with shraeye that he's been putting things out there as being suspicious hoping someone else will find it suspicious. I think this is the sort of kindof guiding the conversation that a first time scum player would do (which is why I was asking if he'd played scum before).
2. liopoil: he's been on, but I can't really remember anything he's said which is unusual. Usually I remember what he says quite clearly because it's quite out there. This noticeable difference from the norm reads scummy to me.
3. I dunno I don't really have anything strong or weak at this point for a third read. I don't love any of the other cases out there currently though.

Major, major town read on Jorbles here. Why? He didn't put down a third name, and I beleive him when he says he has no idea who to put down. Scum can, and would, easily come up with another person to include here. That Jorbs didn't bother is really, really massively town to me. Such a big town read for this.

[Robz888]

I do not like these ash votes at all. nkirbit, you're voting because ash presented his case over several rapid-fire posts that make it "feel" different, right? Robz, you're voting ash because he claimed. That I guess I can understand. But then nkirbit sheeps Robz's reasons, which are different! And yuma is voting ash because...ash got snippy with him? But later clarifies it's because he thinks ash is mafia. Can you clarify why, yuma?

My yuma!bells are going off right now. Yuma has admitted to goading ash into claiming, and then engages in a theory chat with ash ending with a vote for him after ash got snippy. yuma!bells have yet to be right, but this seems like intentional baiting to me.

I never said I voted ash because he was snippy, but I guess you could see that as the reasons, as yes I didn't provide one. I was posting amist a babyshower--not sure how I got wrangled into that--so wasn't able to provide my whole rationale.

For me right now, I see ash as trying too hard to be his {warning: using words that might sound critical, but they are not intended to be because I have accepted the way ash plays and don't expect nor do I want him to change} abrasive and aggressive and defensive and plan supporting meta that he has created over the course of many games.

I feel that I saw this same thing in Mean Girls when I was partners with him:

There are a number of examples here:

- this is my weakest point, because I still think that if ash is town he claimed as a reaction to me. Again, not my fault, but I could see ash doing it. But I can also see ash doing it to make people think that only town could do something as crazy as claim in the first minutes of the game...
- suggesting the day1 random lynch... again only town would be crazy enough to suggest this...
- his vote on robz I felt was forced and reminded me of his vote on spiritbears early in Mean Girls.
- his post suggesting that I am coming to my partner's (Robz's) aid, is exactly the sort of post that ash put forward when he is scum I think. Tries to force the issue through.
- this post, "I'd love to actually be a D1 lynch, instead of just constantly misread." w/o a self vote. Ash hates it when people bring up that he hasn't self voted in this game, and understandably. But keep in mind, in Mean Girls, he didn't self vote.
- and then his last post saying he won't post every 48 hours. In Mean Girls he did something similar--except there it was even more over the top. He faked being extremely mad at mcmc to the point that he threatened to /out of the game. Afterward (and I knew at the time it was fake because he had more or less planned it) he said it was all an act. Ash uses fake emotion to gain a foot up on town. I think this might be another example.

Those are all of the things I had noticed from ash that makes me think he is more likely scum faking his meta than town being true to his meta.

Nothing to say, except yuma captures my thoughts on ash perfectly. Remember, ash is always up to do a crazy plan, regardless of whether he is town or scum. I think his crazy plan here might have been trying to get away with a VT claim as scum. Remember, there is extra benefit to that, here! Because you don't get shot by SKs that way.

[Robz888]

1. Suggesting ash's suggestion of a random vote was more serious than it was to see if it would stick.
2. His fishy post where he can't seem to decide if ash is townie or scummy, but he really seems to want someone to tell him they find ash scummy so he can agree and more comfortably vote for ash.

Seriously?
1) I have no way to know how serious it is, I clearly suspected some kind of weird gambit (as someone else explained their guess on a few posts later).  I wasn't trying to see if anything would stick.  I would also note that I only got into that line of conversation because you asked me to expanded on a post.  And that post wasn't a case, it was a trying to guess why people were finding Ash scummy post.

2) I've come down on the side of finding Ash towny and I haven't voted for him, I thought that was clear.

This is the sort of play I would expect from someone who A) hasn't played scum before, B) likes to be involved in the conversation, and C) thinks that the best way to play scum is to subtly guide the conversation. Anyhow these are still early reads, but I'm going to park my vote on him for a bit and see what happens.

A)True
B)True
C)I'm not sure yet

But the fact is, I haven't been guiding the conversation, except for a semi-futile attempt to get away from the theory talk that I actually enjoy but annoys everyone so much, and either way, me having not played scum before and talking a lot would be an equally strong case against me in every game I've played so far.

Shraeye's vote on me seemed silly, given that I've been pushing more on my reads this early than in previous games, but you are not sheeping here, you're building a more extensive case...  which is mostly built on comments I made while clarifying a comment I made guessing why people were finding Ash scummy while I was finding him towny that you asked me to expand on.  I certainly wasn't driving conversation about Ash there.  If anything you were.

This is a stronger read for me than my read on Liopoil, not me being angry.  I'm serious about my
Vote: Jorbles

Reflexive OMGUS is sort of scummier, when it is coming from a newER player.

[Robz888]

OMGUS votes. OMGUS votes everywhere.

See, this is exactly what I wanted to avoid.  But the last time I didn't vote for someone I thought said something scummy because they had just voted for me and I didn't want it dismissed as OMGUS, people also got mad at me.

I'm trying to accept that I can't please everyone, or anyone really. I'm just going to vote and anyone who doesn't pay attention to why can yell OMGUS at me and if Jorbles someday flips scum, I'll vote you too

In all seriousness, I'm mostly agreeing with you again this game, Monsieur Arouet (I am going to keep using that even if I'm the only one).  And I'm disagreeing with Yuma but finding him towny for it.

The thing I bolded: You are NOT doing that. You are paranoid that you can't please everyone. Scum do that.

[Robz888]

OMGUS votes. OMGUS votes everywhere.

MIFY

Ooh, don't like this. Jokes are scummy.

[Robz888]

I'm in the middle of a game of dominion, I'll do some stuff maybe later.

Yet you're clearly following the thread. vote: mail-mi

I'm only checking in to read the new posts during opponent's turns. I'm not gonna reread in the middle of my game.

Okay, I do that, too. And only as town. Still.

[Robz888]

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Bolded Robz scum lie.  DS9?  Masons and Monks?  LotR1?  PokeMafia?  Town DOES NOT win multiball.  Ever.

vote: Robz

Towns haven't won multiball on f.DS that often, because scumteams tended not to hit eachotehr, as I recall. 

I don't know about that... In MXIX my team hit Galz and Robz's team hit TheMunch.
In MXX my team hit Robz.
I am pretty sure there were more examples from the earlier games--MVI maybe it was?--that had multiple scum teams that I didn't participate in. But the point remains, town is in a better position if scum teams have a chance of eliminating each other rather than being lynched.

Yeah, M-VI is the big one. And it was more than just night actions. We had 2 scum teams and an SK, and they (the two scum teams in particular) consistently went to extreme lengths to hurt each other to such a degree that town won easily.

I was a Mafia Jack-of-All-Trades, I investigated and found a Werewolf (the other scum team), and instead of discreetly murdering him, I outed him to town the next day. Guess what? He revealed his role as Werewolf Roleblocker, whose roleblocking would fail against the Mafia, and he had roleblocked me. I therefore outed myself to his partners and anyone in the town who believed him. Next night I used my hiding power to become totally immune, and a different player claimed to have invesrtigated me and found out that I was indeed Mafia. I knew he was lying, since I had been investigative immune, meaning that he was simply a Werewolf who knew I was Mafia (because he knew his dead partner was truthful about the roleblocking thing). I explained this to the town. Both our teams were subsequently exterminated.

[Robz888]

I don't find Ash scummy though!  I've said that over and over.

I feel like I can't win in any of these games.  I talk theory, so that's scummy.  I don't scumhunt enough so that's scummy.  I try to scumhunt so that's scummy.  I put a vote down so that's scummy.  I talk without putting a vote down so that's scummy.  You guys are so inconsistent game-to-game and day-to-day!

Don't know why I bother trying in these things.

Yup yup yup, we totally are. But the thing is, you just gotta brush it off. And even if we were reading you more accurately (or what you claim would be more accurately) that doesn't win us the game. We win by catching all the scum. And going after people for inconsitent reasons is just kind of something we do. It's not even a bad thing. Don't take it to heart.

I think scum are more likely to take it to heart, though. Although it could be that you in particular are a kind of sensitive townie persona.

[Robz888]

You know what, we're doing the 3-PR claim thing.  I'm deciding this unilaterally.  Others can join me or leave me out to dry, I don't care anymore, and hey, maybe it will save town some valuable time.

I am one of your power roles.

Which also means I'm the night-kill tonight.  Let's hope both of them go for me, so we can have more alive on Day 2.

UGH UGH UGH UGH UGH. No. Bad.

This does not even mean you are the night kill for sure! Both scum factions could say, "Hell, leave him alive. That will confuse them. Let the other scum deal with it." And then you survive and we are confused.

And because of that, we can't even--and shouldn't even--go ohh, you must be town, at least we know you are town. You could just be lying, I don't think lying here like dooms you as town. Well, it makes you highly unlikely to be the SK, probably.

Still, it's bad. You weren't even close to being lynched. Save claims for L-1, people!!!

[Robz888]

Mod:  What time is our lynch deadline on August 17th?

All:  Lynch deadline is in one week, on Saturday.  The chance of having everyone available on a weekend to participate at lynch deadline is slim.  I therefore posit that:

1) our hard deadline is, for all intents and purposes, next Friday (less than a week from now); and
2) our soft deadline should be no later than Wednesday.

In pursuit of meeting these goals, I ask everyone, by the end of their next two posts, to group all other players (besides yourself) into "Will Not Lynch On Day 1," "Could Lynch On Day 1," and "Prefer To Lynch On Day 1" categories.  Each category should have at least 3 players.  Right now, our votes are quite literally scattered across the entire roster of players, which does not fill me with confidence that we're on a good path to settling on a lynch within a week.

I'll be doing this myself in my next post, after completing a reread of events to date.

Will Not Lynch
Jorbles -- I explained this already.
Voltgloss -- Seems like town Voltgloss so far. And really, it's just so good to have him back.
Eevee -- Had a scum read as I was rereading, since he wasn't posting, but his most recent post sounds townie. It's his phrasing.
Yuma -- Just, not scummy so far.

Could Lynch
Everyone not on the other two lists.

Prefer to Lynch
ashersky -- I explained this already.
mail-mi -- I always find mail-mi scum, and I always find memes scummy, especially when they are in place of serious talk. And then I think he tried to course correct hard when called out for it.

[Robz888]

Jimmm for lurking (but that's normal)

good luck lynching someone that isn't in the game...

Oh my gosh UoS talking about Jimmmmmmmmmm made me think he was in the game!

Eh, well that's pretty townie. Okay, maybe I don't want to lynch mail-mi.

[Robz888]

I think UoS is very likely to be town. If he was a SK, he for no reason just put himself out there to be killed by mafia, not good. Ditto for mafia (also could be counterclaimed). Frustrated town just makes the most sense. UoS, I really like your style of playing and I'm sure people finding you scummy is nothing personal, even if it feels a bit unfair. And fwiw, it IS sheeping when Robz does it.

It is NOT!

Anyway, well... okay. I do actually think maybe this is sort of a genuine reaction for UoS. In the abstract I would find it scummier, but he does seem like he usually wants to be perceived correctly, and gets frustrated when he thinks he's not. So, okay.

[Robz888]

That's it.

[mail-mi]

OMGUS votes. OMGUS votes everywhere.

MIFY

Ooh, don't like this. Jokes are scummy.

Do you even know me?

[sudgy]

Vote Count 1.4

nkirbit (1): shraeye
mail-mi (1): Voltaire
Voltaire (1): mail-mi
Robz888 (2): ashersky, Eevee
ashersky (2): Robz888, yuma
Eevee (1): Voltgloss
EmbrageOfSnow (1): Jorbles
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (2): liopoil, nkirbit
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends August 17th, 9 pm forum time.

[Robz888]

Quiet day.

[Robz888]

And I don't like that mail mi, clearly had time to respond, and that's what he responds with.