All you can do is count up what you know--or think you know--and compare: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9%2B%2B
Yeah, I've already got the link saved for easy access, and my trusty notepad of notes to track what I know. I just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something like "if there are 2 D, there cannot be 3 C" or something else random like that. Limitations, basically, is what I was wondering about - if there were ways to find out more about the setup based on less concrete information.
It appears not though. 
Just me 'n my notepad.
Right no limitations like that. If we assume that there was still near a 50% chance of each roll producing a non-T result though we get some probabilistic information. There were 6 rolls, and if at least 2 produced non-T results then there are 3 mafia. So, the probability of having 2 mafia is thus: (1/2)^6 + 6*(1/2)^6 ~ 11% (that's the probability of getting 5 or 6 T results) So, with almost a 90% chance of having a mafia roleblocker (even bigger if you have a role, to 100% if you have a role requiring 2 non-T rolls). So, for my purposes I won't include the possibility of 2 mafia in any discussions. Similarly, I think it's safe to assume we have a mafia roleblocker.
Godfather is trickier, in the most likely case (3 T's) we have no Godfather. Then there are the two sides of that (2 T's and 4 T's) one with godfather one without. The remaining 4 options have Godfathers. I think there are 20 ways to have the most common case, and 14 ways to have the remaining 4. So, given no non-public information we are slightly more likely to have no godfather. If you know there were 2 more non-T rolls for instance though, it would be 11 to 5 for the godfather existing.
Once again this is all assuming 50% likelihood of town roles which is not guaranteed. But it's probably ball-park accurate.
I think the setup information is more useful outside of setup speculation and looking at whether fake-claims are true. In particular, a claim which requires 2 rolls is stronger than a claim which only requires 1. So, someone claiming Cop is making a stronger claim than someone claiming Doctor. A claim which requires another role in order to exist is also stronger than one that doesn't, so 1-shot Doctor is stronger than Roleblocker. Finally, the 1-shot roles never duplicate, therefore they're stronger claims than full-time roles. This is because each of those situations are easier to be contradicted. Now people claim contradictory roles anyways, the only one I think you're really unlikely to see is a 1-shot roleblocker claim, because it can be counter-claimed by another 1-shot roleblocker OR by the absence of a full-time roleblocker.
(Note: I'm using stronger in the sense of has more requirements and suggesting it is more likely to be true. If scum make a stronger fake-claim, then they're more likely to be believed out of the gate, BUT they're also more likely to be proven false by the existence (or lack) of another town role, which is in fact why they're more likely to be believed.)
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Topic: Mafia XVII: Tabula Rasa (Buffyverse) - Town Wins Flawlessly! (Read 139079 times)