Topic: Mafia XIII: Hydras, Hydras everywhere! Day 1 Started. (Read 66775 times)

Zaphod Beeblebrox · « **Reply #525 on:** November 19, 2012, 12:41:55 pm »

I think you've misunderstood why I MUST be town:

Doduo claimed Cop.
Doduo claimed Durden is scum.
Dent counterclaimed Cop.

If Doduo is town, then Dent/Durden ARE both Mafia.

If Doduo is scum, then Dent is the Cop.

Dent claimed Cop.
Dent claimed to investigate me and found I'm town.

So:

If Doduo is the Cop, I'm town.
If Dent is the Cop, I'm town.

There is no scenario where I could be anything else.

Dr Jekyll · « **Reply #526 on:** November 19, 2012, 12:42:52 pm »

Quote from: Sakon and Ukon on November 19, 2012, 12:35:29 pm

Sakon suspects Dent the most. The progression of wagon formatipn appears carefully planned and the WIFOM runs deep. That Dent considers Zaphod IC makes me question every angle and unsure throughout.
Sakon feels like there is a 50/50 tossup if Zaphod is town otherwise this is an ingenius trap. Sakon intends to reread Zaphod and consult with Ukon before taking a position.

Sakon, there is no possible way Zaphod can be scum. Not from reads, but from logic. Consider:

1. Both Dent and Doduo have claimed Cop, and no third party has counterclaimed them. This means exactly one of them is telling the truth (town Cop) and the other is lying (scum).

2. If Dent is telling the truth, then he is the town Cop with a town-investigation read on Zaphod. That means Zaphod is town.

3. If Doduo is telling the truth, then he is the town Cop with a scum-investigation read on Durden. That means Durden and Dent are scum, which means everyone else (including Zaphod) is town.

So Zaphod is, by virtue of Dent/Doduo's competing claims, an IC now.

PPE: ninja'd by the man himself.

Dr Jekyll · « **Reply #527 on:** November 19, 2012, 01:37:44 pm »

Zaphod: why do you think the mafia no-killed?

Zaphod Beeblebrox · « **Reply #528 on:** November 19, 2012, 02:25:14 pm »

It's really weird.

I think it was an intentional play. All 3 heads in question (Durden/Dent/Doduo - henceforth D³) were online at the time Grujah unlocked. None of D³ heads would've needed to change accounts to perform the kill - that can be entered in the Mafia QT, so it's not like it's some huge hassle.

Here's why I see Doduo doing it: He's planning on opening the day with a fakeclaim. He knows he'll be counterclaimed. He knows this will result in his lynch, or the Cop's. The more town that are alive, the harder it is to reach a consensus and the more people he has the opportunity to try and convince. If his partner (who is an unknown) doesn't bus him it takes all 4 townies to choose the right claim. If they NK, the situation is the same but it only takes 3 voices to stand together.

From Dent's perspective: He and Durden decide to go the fakeclaim route. They know Dent derphammered yesterday and they know Dent will be on the chopping block over it today. So by planning to claim they can at least force a 50/50 chance to win outright. If they NK and kill the cop, they lose this opportunity and it likely goes to Lylo with Durden and two town. So the question then was, if this is the route they wanted to go, what should they claim? Claiming a town result on a scum partner is dangerous, since if you get lynched anyway it results in a possible 1-2 lynch. Claiming a town result on a town though works well though since it gains you town cred with said townie, and even if you're lynched, it then casts suspicion on that townie, still allowing your scumbuddy the chance to win. There's also the scum result on scum claim (which is what I think Doduo would be doing here if he's the liar), or scum result on town (good way to make an enemy).

In both cases, the scum team would be planning on forcing a lynch today by fake claiming. This makes having more people alive advantageous since it's harder to lynch correctly.

Zaphod Beeblebrox · « **Reply #529 on:** November 19, 2012, 02:43:27 pm »

Personally, I think I want to lynch Dent. It's really close though. But every time I go back and read the events, I see this:

Durden/Dent thought that Dent was the obvious choice for Investigation last night after that hammer. They decide he's going to claim Cop,

They opened the day asking if the Cop should claim.

Before anybody could reasons, Doduo claimed Durden was scum.

Ashersky went "Oh shit, I need to claim"

Ashersky made some pretty bad arguments about mislynching.

O took over and started admonishing Ashersky for being hotheaded, since the whole point to the fake claim was to hide the second scum AND give scum a way to win straight out. Now if they failed to win today, they failed to win period..

The internal struggle between heads on Dent is what really tips it for me. It sounded like they planned to claim first, forcing the real Cop to counter - but when Doduo jumped out and claimed, Ashersky made a snap decision without thinking about the consequences. O got angry at him (probably rightfully so if this is indeed an accurate storyline).

For me personally, the biggest thing I don't like about Dent's posts overall was his lack of offering up his role as a reason to hammer Smeagol. I'm not saying lynching town is ever good - but when asked "Why didn't you wait for him to claim", as the Cop your answer should be pretty straight forward "Because I knew he couldn't be the only PR left, so there was nothing for him to claim". Dent never offered that, and that, to me, would've been the only acceptable town reason to "derphammer".

Sakon and Ukon · « **Reply #530 on:** November 19, 2012, 02:48:42 pm »

All of this is assuming Town has a cop and Dent/Doduo are not a scum pair.

Sakon and Ukon · « **Reply #531 on:** November 19, 2012, 02:50:21 pm »

Quote from: Zaphod Beeblebrox on November 19, 2012, 10:28:21 am

Durden is individually the scummiest person here. Not a single one of his arguments D3 have been completely accurate. But I don't see lynching him as the best play right now.

If we lynch Dent and he's scum, then Durden is 100% of the time as well.

If we lynch Doduo and he's scum, then Durden is only scum ~75% of the time.

If we lynch Durden and he's scum, then we still have to choose between Dent/Doduo tomorrow.

Regarding Dent/Doduo - Dent's play was much townier in my eyes out of the gate, but his posts since then have been terribly scummy. Doduo's play out of the gates read like opportunistic, eager scum - but he's actually sounded a lot more confident in what his claimed role is than Dent since then.

I could honestly go either way. S&U, what do you think?

zaphod, i'm pretty much in agreement with everything you're saying here.

it's mostly that dent and durden keep making arguments that make no sense.

there's no point in no lynching with a confirmed townie around, i suppose.

Sakon and Ukon · « **Reply #532 on:** November 19, 2012, 02:50:52 pm »

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Alternating_9P

read the setup dude

Zaphod Beeblebrox · « **Reply #533 on:** November 19, 2012, 02:51:27 pm »

Quote from: Grujah on September 25, 2012, 06:50:32 pm

Setup is Alternating 9P.

We knew when the game began that there was a cop. What ARE you talking about S&U?

Zaphod Beeblebrox · « **Reply #534 on:** November 19, 2012, 02:52:32 pm »

Quote from: Zaphod Beeblebrox on November 19, 2012, 02:51:27 pm

Quote from: Grujah on September 25, 2012, 06:50:32 pm
Setup is Alternating 9P.

We knew when the game began that there was a cop. What ARE you talking about S&U?

Directed at S&U #530

Sakon and Ukon · « **Reply #535 on:** November 19, 2012, 02:52:45 pm »

i don't think my other head realized this was an open setup game

Sakon and Ukon · « **Reply #536 on:** November 19, 2012, 04:02:32 pm »

There is no conclusive mod post outlining the roles that I could find. I did find the A9 post but no consensus it would be used.

Vote: Dent

Zaphod Beeblebrox · « **Reply #537 on:** November 19, 2012, 04:11:54 pm »

Based on S&U's last 10 posts or so, scum is either Doduo/S&U, in which case Doduo gets MVP for sounding so damn townie, or scum is Dent/Durden, in which case Doduo is MVP for sounding so damn townie.

Vote: Dent

Grujah · « **Reply #538 on:** November 19, 2012, 04:23:37 pm »

Thread Locked.

Grujah · « **Reply #539 on:** November 19, 2012, 04:28:05 pm »

Harvey Dent has been lynched. He is a Town Cop.

Doduo and Tyler Durden, both Mafia, win the game, flawlessly.

48 hours for final shot at mini-game (you need to guess all the rest) before posting final head/minigame details.

Thread Unlocked.

Dsell · « **Reply #540 on:** November 19, 2012, 04:28:20 pm »

Grujah · « **Reply #541 on:** November 19, 2012, 04:29:07 pm »

BTW. Mafia forgot to submit last night, and they were pretty pissed at me for not reminding them.

cayvie · « **Reply #542 on:** November 19, 2012, 04:29:28 pm »

Dsell · « **Reply #543 on:** November 19, 2012, 04:30:14 pm »

Quote from: Grujah on November 19, 2012, 04:29:07 pm

BTW. Mafia forgot to submit last night, and they were pretty pissed at me for not reminding them.

Yeah deadline caught up to us in the middle of strategy discussion. When there was no kill we ended up pulling a completely different gambit than planned. (I hope it's ok to be posting on my regular account?)

cayvie · « **Reply #544 on:** November 19, 2012, 04:30:49 pm »

man, i was useless

Axxle · « **Reply #545 on:** November 19, 2012, 04:30:55 pm »

From our QT: "What do you think of a Durden/Doduo scumteam?"

Insomniac · « **Reply #546 on:** November 19, 2012, 04:32:32 pm »

The MVP of this head was DSell, I had trouble logging onto the account and driving conversation in a game there wasn't a bunch going on in.

Dsell primarily posted days 1 and 3 and I primarily posted day 2.

Grujah while we were discussing strategy locked the thread after no notice , we DID intend to kill

Eevee · « **Reply #547 on:** November 19, 2012, 04:33:48 pm »

Well done mafia, deserved.

Dsell · « **Reply #548 on:** November 19, 2012, 04:33:55 pm »

I should just quit forum mafia now, because nobody is ever going to believe anything I say ever again.

Axxle · « **Reply #549 on:** November 19, 2012, 04:35:45 pm »

Quote from: Smeagol on November 14, 2012, 08:48:30 pm

Doduo looks scummy.

Listen to dead town reads!

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Author Topic: Mafia XIII: Hydras, Hydras everywhere! Day 1 Started. (Read 66775 times)