Topic: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS!) (Read 338433 times)

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3250 on:** July 12, 2012, 08:53:30 pm »

Think through the scenarios that DSell is throwing out there. If I'm mafia + and you/RobZ are my co-horts, and DSell is town - there's are only 6 possibilities - and you can eliminate 4 of them.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3251 on:** July 12, 2012, 09:17:07 pm »

Dsell, I took the liberty of doing some analysis of the scenarios in which I'm mafia - SFS / RobZ is my partner - and all possible combinations of serial killer who aren't you.

There are only 6 of them.

The DSell scenarios are really easy - because you have to explain 3 kills. With 3 roleclaims - that only leaves a few options for what the other parties could and could not be.

Mafia 1	Mafia 2	Serial Killer	Notes
Captain_Frisk	RobZ	Glooble	Glooble is bulletproof: CF / RobZ roleblocks Dsell, CF / RobZ shoots Glooble, Glooble Kill Doctored / Roleblocked by Tables. Night 4 CF / RobZ roleblock Glooble + Target Pops? WHY NOT KILL GLOOBLE? Glooble isn't bulletproof: Doesn't work - Tables can't block 2 kills. Why does Glooble claim jailkeeper?
Captain_Frisk	RobZ	SFS	SFS has outrageous Day 2 claim SFS is bulletproof: CF / RobZ shoot SFS, Block Dsell. SFS shoots someone - doctored by Tables. Night 4: CF / RobZ roleblock SFS and target pops? WHY NOT KILL SFS? Outing him also throws suspicion on Tables. SFS isn't bulletproof: Doesn't work - tables can't block 2 kills.
Captain_Frisk	RobZ	Tables	Impossible. Nobody could block table's kill.
Captain_Frisk	SFS	Glooble	SFS has outrageous Day 2 claim Glooble Bulletproof: Captain / SFS Roleblock Dsell - kill Glooble (blocked). Glooble kill doctored / roleblocked by RobZ or Tables. Glooble Not Bulletproof: Captain /SFS roleblock Dsell. Kill is blocked by Tables/RobZ. Other NK is blocked by Tables/RobZ. This one Bulletproof Glooble is plausible (only requires 1 town PR - but then Glooble is asking to be killed because he's out of vests) Why would he claim and call the attention on himself?
Captain_Frisk	SFS	RobZ	SFS has outrageous Day 2 claim RobZ Bulletproof: Captain / SFS Roleblock Dsell - kill RobZ (blocked). RobZ kill doctored by Tables. Glooble inadvertantly blocks my kill Night 4, RobZ kills Pops. Requires 2 town protection roles (Doctor, Roleblocker) RobZ Not Bulletproof: Captain /SFS roleblock Dsell. Impossible - Tables can't block 2 kills, and Glooble's protection is wasted.
Captain_Frisk	SFS	Tables	SFS has outrageous Day 2 claim Tables Bulletproof: Captain / SFS Roleblock DSell kill Tables (blocked). Glooble kill doctored by RobZ. Requires 2 town PRs. Tables Not Bulletproof: fails - RobZ can't block 2 kills

Before you vote for me - really think through these scenarios and see which ones are plausible. Everyone here can rule out some of these - because they all require someone else to be doing some miracle protection.

For example - SFS (if town) can rule out scenarios 2,4,5,6. So he just needs to look over 1 and 3 - and see if he believes that's what happened.

So DSell - can you tell me which of those scenarios look plausible to you?

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3252 on:** July 12, 2012, 09:25:42 pm »

Will check back in later - I'm going to go watch a flick with the wife.

Oh - and because I am now 100% confident:

Vote: DSell

Tables · « **Reply #3253 on:** July 12, 2012, 09:36:23 pm »

I smell petrol... think it might be a bus.

Voltgloss · « **Reply #3254 on:** July 12, 2012, 09:48:16 pm »

Vote Count 5-1

Captain_Frisk (2): Dsell, SwitchedFromStarcraft
Dsell (1): Captain_Frisk

Not voting {3}: Robz888, Glooble, Tables

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch Deadline: Monday, July 23, at 7:00 a.m. EDT

Robz888 · « **Reply #3255 on:** July 12, 2012, 09:54:53 pm »

I wish there were a couple more living people to help make this decision. I'm just stumped. There is no easy explanation for the previous 2 night actions no matter which people are what, so I feel like I'm ultimately going to be guessing.

SwitchedFromStarcraft · « **Reply #3256 on:** July 12, 2012, 10:24:54 pm »

Quote from: Captain_Frisk on July 12, 2012, 07:52:00 pm

This cements it for me. The serial killer won't vote early because mislynching town results in likely loss for him too.

Dsell is mafia

And this cements it for me. If you were convinced, why wait another hour and 32 minutes to vote for him?

SwitchedFromStarcraft · « **Reply #3257 on:** July 12, 2012, 10:25:44 pm »

Quote from: Tables on July 12, 2012, 09:36:23 pm

I smell petrol... think it might be a bus.

And that gives you pause?

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3258 on:** July 12, 2012, 10:31:21 pm »

Quote from: SwitchedFromStarcraft on July 12, 2012, 10:24:54 pm

Quote from: Captain_Frisk on July 12, 2012, 07:52:00 pm
This cements it for me. The serial killer won't vote early because mislynching town results in likely loss for him too.

Dsell is mafia
And this cements it for me. If you were convinced, why wait another hour and 32 minutes to vote for him?

Wanted To research and not start shit via phone

SwitchedFromStarcraft · « **Reply #3259 on:** July 12, 2012, 10:35:07 pm »

Quote from: Captain_Frisk on July 12, 2012, 08:40:08 pm

SFS - please don't be the townie that loses the game.

Remember though, it IS a game.

This, btw, is why I prefer individual sports. If I lose, I've only disappointed me, and invite no one else's displeasure.

On that uplifting note, I'm off for the night. Have fun all.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3260 on:** July 12, 2012, 11:26:01 pm »

Quote from: Tables on July 12, 2012, 09:36:23 pm

I smell petrol... think it might be a bus.

Claim bussing if you want - as long as you lynch DSell - not me. If we're bussing - then you win either way. (Am I agreeing with SFS?)

@SFS - the reason why I'm appealing you to unvote is that you are the most clear townread. I expected DSells vote - he's not likely to change it - mafia don't need to worry about misvoting.

You however - I expect to be town. Everyone who isn't mafia needs to be very careful with their votes today - lynching town is nearly a game ender for town - and lynching serial killer does end it - and you've been throwing your vote around around the second someone accuses me. Think it through. If you really believe DSell is telling the truth - then work through a plausible scenario in which DSell is a town vig, and I'm mafia. I need a partner - and there needs to be a serial killer - and you need to explain 3 night kills.

If DSell is not mafia, well then its all my fault and you can blame me for every future game. There is no way he's town - and his play makes no sense for a cereal killer.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3261 on:** July 12, 2012, 11:26:16 pm »

Serial killer... not Cereal Killer.

Robz888 · « **Reply #3262 on:** July 13, 2012, 01:10:56 am »

Okay. I am not mafia and Tables is not mafia and SFS is not mafia. Let's say I believe Glooble. That means Dsell and Frisk are mafia. Okay then, we kill mafia either way. So if that's the case, huzzah.

But it sure doesn't look like it from the way they are fighting, which means that something I believe is wrong. The most likely thing being wrong would be that Glooble is actually mafia. If Glooble is actually mafia, Dsell's claim is probably true. And it's probably Glooble and Frisk.

If Dsell is mafia... then what? If it's him and Glooble, we have no great role townies? Of course somebody could be an unrevealed Doctor. Or it's Dsell and Frisk.

Gar, I'm going in circles here.

I think they might just both be mafia. The only problem will be if one of them isn't, and it's Glooble instead.

More thinking to do...

Robz888 · « **Reply #3263 on:** July 13, 2012, 01:12:45 am »

I am pretty convinced Dsell is scum. At this point I am just trying to figure out whether I think he is mafia or Serial Killer. If he is Serial Killer, I have to vote for Frisk.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3264 on:** July 13, 2012, 06:17:59 am »

Please explain the glooble claim in the scenario in which he is mafia.

Tables · « **Reply #3265 on:** July 13, 2012, 07:32:18 am »

Robz, really, at this point, both Mafia would not be unhappy to bus the other. We could lynch mafia today, and the mafia could still win (lynch mafia, mafia/SK both shoot town, leaving one of everything, or lynch mafia, mafia shoot SK, SK shoots town, mafia wins the 3 man face off). I have no qualms about people's behaviors today. Just look at things in previous days.

Here's my take on Frisk/Glooble with DSell Killer:

Night 3: DSell kills Axxle but is blocked by Blocker!Glooble to create confusion. Meanwhile, the mafia targets someone and are either stopped by the doctor, or they try to kill DSell, believing his claim and thinking it'll lead to an Axxle kill the following day.

Night 4: Hmm... no, actually, I'm stumped in the second scenario. So we go back to the first scenario, and the mafia try to kill DSell, who absorbs the shot, while the Doctor saves the SK target.

It's plausible. Right now of course everything sounds unlikely, but plausible.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3266 on:** July 13, 2012, 07:40:48 am »

Quote from: Tables on July 13, 2012, 07:32:18 am

Robz, really, at this point, both Mafia would not be unhappy to bus the other. We could lynch mafia today, and the mafia could still win (lynch mafia, mafia/SK both shoot town, leaving one of everything, or lynch mafia, mafia shoot SK, SK shoots town, mafia wins the 3 man face off). I have no qualms about people's behaviors today. Just look at things in previous days.

Here's my take on Frisk/Glooble with DSell Killer:

Night 3: DSell kills Axxle but is blocked by Blocker!Glooble to create confusion. Meanwhile, the mafia targets someone and are either stopped by the doctor, or they try to kill DSell, believing his claim and thinking it'll lead to an Axxle kill the following day.

Night 4: Hmm... no, actually, I'm stumped in the second scenario. So we go back to the first scenario, and the mafia try to kill DSell, who absorbs the shot, while the Doctor saves the SK target.

It's plausible. Right now of course everything sounds unlikely, but plausible.

Ok. So glooble opens today with a claim to bus me? Why wouldn't glooble and I kill dsell night 4 now that we've wounded him?

Why would dsell claim one shot vig, which leaves the day 2 kill unexplained, and not full vig?

Not buying it.

Tables · « **Reply #3267 on:** July 13, 2012, 07:59:09 am »

I have no idea what either of the first two sentences are referring to. Claiming full vig would get him killed by the mafia, obviously, if they believed him.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3268 on:** July 13, 2012, 08:09:02 am »

My setences were referring to your plan that its Me + Glooble as mafia and DSell is the serial killer.

Sentence 1: Glooble damn near opened the day claiming jailkeeper with me as target. Wouldn't we at least try to kill town or SK first?

Sentence 2: If DSell is the SK - and we've already shot him once on night 3 per your scenario - then why would we let him live night 4?

As for claiming full vig - he could gamble on some protection - he could have his own bulletproofedness. The alternative is getting lynched. Claiming one shot vig forces there to be a serial killer - and his claim is going to get really messy in a few rounds - as it has here. If he had claimed full vig - it was then possible for there to be 4 mafia - and he can keep killing people - possibly with the doctor protection you're assuming.

Tables · « **Reply #3269 on:** July 13, 2012, 08:13:55 am »

On 1: It's a perfectly reasonable move, bus your partner and ride out the last few days as people think you're likely town. And he could have also been betting on other explanations working.

On 2: Did you even read my post?

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3270 on:** July 13, 2012, 08:24:43 am »

Sorry - I misread.

I still don't like the assumption that Glooble bussed me to open the day. Mafia would be willing to bus today - but when the win is in reach - I would think they would at least try to get a win before resorting to bustimes

Tables · « **Reply #3271 on:** July 13, 2012, 08:37:30 am »

Hmm... yes, I do see your point. For the record, I'm still not overly suspicious of Glooble.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3272 on:** July 13, 2012, 08:47:08 am »

Glooble is semi plausible town - which is why I am going back to Mr. DSell

Glooble · « **Reply #3273 on:** July 13, 2012, 10:12:52 am »

I am in a bit of a bind. I think it highly likely DSell is Serial Killer. My best evidence is the night kills - DSell is highly suspicious of Galz, then Galz get's NK'd. If DSell were mafia, why would he night kill someone who was in such an excellent position to get lynched? But the Serial Killer at the point would have wanted to hit scum, right? If DSell actually thought Galz was mafia, that kill makes perfect sense.

Of course its possible that Grujah shot Galz, the mafia killed Grujah, and the SK kill was blocked, but I didn't block it, so that leaves Mafia Roleblocker or our mysterious unclaimed doctor (who I'm fairly certain doesn't exist at this point.)

Then there's the fact Galz put that big 'ol FOS on Captain Frisk right before end of day. If we think Frisk is SK, killing Galz would have been very risky, because a dead confirmed townie's FOS is harder to wiggle out from under than a living player who still might be scum. If DSell is SK, this isn't an issue.

The reason I'm still torn is because I don't have a clue who Frisk's partner is in this scenario. My gut impulse is Robz, since he seems to most resistant to this lynch, but that theory is so full of holes I just don't like it at all. Robz'z behavior this game just hasn't been consistent with him being mafia.

That leaves SFS or Tables hoping an opportunistic bus will carry them through to the end game. SFS seems slightly more likely, I guess. I'll give him mad props for a ballsy gambit if he flips scum and Tables doesn't though.

Either way, though, I'm pretty sure Frisk is mafia.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #3274 on:** July 13, 2012, 10:25:04 am »

That's a reasonably well argued post Glooble.

Let's test this theory then:

@DSell - why did you shoot PopsofCtown instead of me last night?

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Author Topic: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS!) (Read 338433 times)