Okay, let's say there are 2 mafia left, which is what we all assume, for balance reasons. We know it's not me or Tables, because we led the kill O thing. That leaves:
Frisk-SFS
Frisk-Glooble
Frisk-Dsell
SFS-Glooble
SFS-Dsell
Dsell-Glooble
Glooble and Frisk cannot be a pair. Frisk and Dsell cannot be a pair. So we have:
Frisk-SFS
SFS-Glooble
SFS-Dsell
Dsell-Glooble
If I am willing to rule SFS out entirely, that would actually make it fairly clear who the mafia are. Interestingly enough, SFS has voted for Frisk, and refused to remove the vote. Which is... weird, since Frisk is his most likely scum buddy, if he is mafia.
But if I believe SFS, I am pretty much forced to conclude that Dsell and Glooble are mafia, or at least lying scum.
The thing is that probably all three of Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble are scum. We just have to lynch a mafia, not the SK.
Of the three of them, Glooble is the one whose behavior makes least sense as SK, relative to mafia, I think. So he's the one I would stake as mafia.
Thoughts? I'm really just talking to Tables and SFS at this point.
Robz - I'm concerned about everyone but me at this point, but I am concerned about you and Tables least. Glooble comes and goes on my list, sometimes approximating my level of suspicion for Dsell and Frisk. He may have me fooled, but I believe his roleclaim and target for last night, which means Frisk is scum of one variety or another.
This is not the only data I have on Frisk. His non-vote for O I read as straight up "won't vote for my partner". If there were only two mafia in the game, he wouldn't add ANY momentum to a wagon on his partner. Whether this helps us decide there is only one remaining mafia, I don't know. I can't speak intelligently to balance issues for a game I've never played.
Frisk is also beginning to juxtapose my name with his, as if to try and find a way to link us. This is a good ploy if he is one of a mafia pair, because even if he gets lynched, the remaining mafia would not be completely lost, especially if they could get the town to lynch me. O (who was mafia) aimed a post at me a hundred years ago (885) that said "you and Frisk sure agree on a lot". It made me laugh, and I replied (in 886) with "For now
". Now I'm being linked with Frisk again (by Frisk), and it feels like a subtle mafia message.
As to Dsell, I keep working back to a portion of night 3. It is just hard for me to believe that Dsell fired a shot. If he did, then one of the following had to happen (regardless of the other non-deaths):
A) Dsell was blocked by mafia. I can't see this happening if Dsell was town, cause I think mafia gains more (in the then-current game state) from the death of a townie Axxle (bonus if Axxle happens to be the SK) than from the confusion they can create by blocking a vig. I also can't see it happening if Dsell was mafia, because it's too juicy an opportunity for mafia to miss - mafia Dsell could have had a free pass by town for the rest of the game, his roleclaim having been "proven". I also can't see it happening even if mafia suspected Dsell was the SK. Mafia would just let townie Axxle die, then NK the SK. My conclusion: Dsell wasn't roleblocked by mafia.
B) Dsell was blocked by town. I can't see any town player roleblocking him, for multiple reasons. First, we gain information on TWO players (the target AND Dsell) if he's not blocked. Second, no one objected to the choice of Axxle as Dsell's target, and there was plenty of opportunity for discussion. I tried to prompt some of that by asking a lot of question about the relative merits of shooting Frisk over Axxle. Third, though we were wrong about Axxle, he looked bad enough that any town member would likely not stop the shot. My conclusion: Dsell wasn't roleblocked by mafia.
c) Axxle was protected (specifically by town, as there no mafia or scum with protective powers, and there are no jailkeepers). This is unlikely for reasons two and three in Item B above. In addition, given the discussions at the time, and the consensus, a townie would have had to be absolutely certain that Axxle was town to protect him and thereby deny us the knowledge about Dsell's claim. A cop could have had that certainty, but a cop can't protect. I can't see a doctor protecting Axxle under the conditions at the time. My conclusion: Axxle wasn't protected.
Which leads me to: Dsell lied. However, I agree that if he is the SK, we need to wait to kill him. So the next question I need to answer for myself is: was Pops the mafia kill or the SK kill last night?