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[Robz888]

Pops, I am personally fine with you hammering. I don't know if other people would have objections to it. I think we're all in the same boat (well, except the mafia, whoever they are), realizing it has to be Axxle, but we're just a bit afraid of serious mistakes here, but there's nothing much else to do.

[Captain_Frisk]

Are we done with discussion?  I'll hammer

[Dsell]

I think lynching Axxle is probably just the thing that needs to be done to get any more information. Is it possible that the SK/mafia chose not to kill yesterday? That doesn't seem highly likely but I'm starting to wonder if confusion is not one of the best tactics they have against us. I'm baffled that there were no kills. Also possible that there is just one mafia left and they blocked instead of shooting. But again, doesn't seem highly likely.

[popsofctown]

Vote: Axxle

[Voltgloss]

"I'm aLIVE!!"  Axxle gleefully shouted for the forty-third time.

"Not for long!" rejoindered Robz, bashing Axxle over the head with his wine bottle.  Glooble, Dsell, and SwitchedFromStarcraft hustled the unconscious Axxle into the Estate freezers.  popsofctown shoved him into an ice cream machine and pressed the "Ultra Smooth" setting.

Several hours later, the Estate dwellers sampled Axxle ice cream.  But as the flavor hit their palates, their faces turned pale.  Not the bracing Mafiaesque stracciatelle, nor the heady rum raisiny flavor of a Serial Killer... no.  No, this flavor was nothing more than plain vanilla.

Vote Count 4-5

Axxle (5): Robz888, Glooble, Dsell, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown
popsofctown (1): Axxle

Not voting {2}: Tables, Captain_Frisk

Axxle has been lynched.  He was a Vanilla Townie.

Night 4 has begun.  Commands are due in 48 hours, by 5:30 p.m. EDT, Monday, July 9.

If I receive all commands before the deadline, Day 5 may start early.  I will check at 8 a.m. Sunday, 8 p.m. Sunday, and 7 a.m. Monday (all EDT).  If I have not received all commands by 7 a.m. Monday, the actual start of Day 5 will occur sometime Monday evening.

This thread is now LOCKED.

[Voltgloss]

Six Estate dwellers shuffled into the ruined Throne Room to find the seventh of them propped up on the deceased Lord's seat.  Someone somewhere was running out of imaginative killing methods, because this corpse simply had a good old-fashioned sword through his heart - leaving it easy to see he was popsofctown.  One standard room-search later confirmed that he, like so many of the dead before him, was a Vanilla Townie.

popsofctown died during the night.  He was a Vanilla Townie.

Day 5 Start!

Not voting {6}: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, July 23, at 7:00 a.m. EDT

This thread is now UNLOCKED.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

You're kidding me.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

VOLTGLOSS - If Pops had a one-shot ability and died AFTER using his power, would he flip as vanilla (cause at that point he is) or would we know he was a "one-shot X" townie?

[Captain_Frisk]

My first thought is that we should lynch DSell.

My second thought is that we are potentially in Lylo now - which makes me think that we should tread cautiously.

[Voltgloss]

VOLTGLOSS - If Pops had a one-shot ability and died AFTER using his power, would he flip as vanilla (cause at that point he is) or would we know he was a "one-shot X" townie?

Dead one-shot roles flip as "one-shot X" regardless of whether they actually used their power.

[Tables]

Only one death again, but it's someone whose been at least a little suspicious, which makes me still suspect there's possible a SK on the loose. Alternatively we have a cautious mafia, or one whose kill had already been blocked, and no SK. But no SK would require an extra vig which we apparently don't have, so... we do have a SK, and apparently a doctor too. Or plausibly a town sided roleblocker, whose probably found the SK or mafia making the kill (if so, claim!)

Frisk: Why kill DSell? He failed to kill a townie. As mafia, why wouldn't he kill Axxle and hope to brush off the lack of other kill as no SK/Doc save? Because of the presence of a SK, however, we aren't really in LYLO, as even if the mafia have a 50/50 split they can still lose.

[Tables]

Nevermind, just noticed there are only 6 alive, not 7. Which means we probably are at MYLO.

[Captain_Frisk]

Why kill dsell? 

Because if he was telling the truth (that he was a town Vig) then:

1. Mafia roleblocker would have needed to stop him (unlikely, but still somewhat plausible) OR he was stopped by town (I would characterize this possibility as not plausible)
2. We'd still need to explain 2 other potential kills - the mafia night kill and the serial killer night kill.  Not impossible, but less likely. 

The problem with killing DSell without discussion is because if he is serial killer - killing him could lose us the game (if there is 2 mafia remaining). 

The other 2 scenarios:

Dsell is mafia: Night 3 - mafia targets someone else @ night - hoping for a kill (knocking us to 7 or 8 alive depending on serial killer kills).  Claims he shot Axxle - who we then lynch the next day (6 or 7 alive) because he didn't die.  Added bonus if Axxle flips serial killer - as DSell is now clear for the game.  If he doesn't then 1-2 more kills on Night 4 puts us at 4-6 town with 2 mafia and / or serial killer.  DSell is going to look guilty as hell by this point, but it doesn't matter because his claim prevented him from being lynched on Day 3.  This scenario still requires 2 blocking roles (serial killer is blocked / protected, mafia NK is blocked / protected.)

DSell is serial killer: Night 4 - DSell targets someone else (I don't really see an incentive to do this as SK) or is blocked (again would almost certainly to be mafia).  I find the concept of mafia giving up a NK on someone who is not mafia to be less likely - because the longer we stay alive - the better chances we have of learning whats going on.

Also - something i noticed overnight - no rolecops means that roleclaims are completely unverifiable short of killing the claimer. For example - SFS (as mafia godfather) could have claimed one shot cop and as long as he didn't name a bulletproof serial killer as his target, SFS becomes confirmed town for life.  I'm not saying that SFS is guilty, but at this point we need to recognize it as a possibility.  DSell's claim is similarly unverifiable.

I am not advocating DSell lynch (or frankly any early voting) - but I do feel like he is the most likely mafia suspect - for the reasons above PLUS every reason we had for almost lynching him Day 3.

[Captain_Frisk]

One more argument against DSell.

1 Assume that there are 2 mafia remaining
2 Assume there is a serial killer
3 Assume DSell is telling the truth
4 Assume that SFS is telling the truth
5 Assume that you are town

Look at the other 3 people that are alive:
--> They are all scum

Do you believe it?

If not - then one of your assumptions is wrong. 

If assumption 1 is wrong - then mislynching is no big deal. 
Assumption 2 requires another town vigilante.

I'll let you work out your own analysis of 3,4,5

[Dsell]

If assumption 1 is wrong - then mislynching is no big deal. 

Mislynching is a big deal even if there's only one mafia left. We're towards the end-game so I am surprised that you are so cavalier about mislynching even if it doesn't give an immediate win for some.

However, your assumption flowchart appears to be correct. As far as #4 goes, I believe SFS to be town but am not willing to accept that as gospel truth. #3 and #5 are the same for me and I know I am town, #1 we simply don't know, but it is possible. All this and the fact that the people we keep lynching instead of you makes me suspicious, but then I'm suspicious of everyone right now.

Pops is a pretty weird kill? It seems like either a SK trying to hit scum or mafia trying to hit a role, though I never saw any indication that he was a role. So either someone was blocked, protected, or both SK and mafia targeted pops. Frankly I could never read him so I'm glad it's him over someone more solidly town.

[Robz888]

I am FURIOUS that we are in this position right now. I blame Axxle. I can't believe he wasn't scum. He barely even defended himself, both times that we told him he was going to die! I thought that he thought there was just no way to save himself, so why bother. But if I were him, and I knew we were about to kill a townie and likely enter MYLO or worse, I would not have gone so gently into that good night.

This is awful, although it could have been worse. If there had been two deaths, we would have been in a no-win scenario, I think. I am pretty mystified that we continue to block night kills. Two people died on Night 1 and 2, and we can only attribute one of them to a Vigilante, possibly. Which means, uh, we have to have a Serial Killer right? I don't know how mafia, SK, and Dsell could have all failed to kill last Night 3, and there only be one kill last night.

I am inclined to trust absolutely nobody at this point, not even SFS and Tables. A bunch of people have been lying, and doing it really successfully.

So, there are 6 of us. The worst case scenario is 3 scum and 3 town. If we lynch the SK and don't block the mafia kill, we lose. If we lynch mafia but lose 2 townies in the night, we still lose.

This prevents us, I think, from massclaiming. Because whoever is stopping the kills needs to keep quiet and continue to block them, because it's lose-lose if we have 2 mafia + 1 SK left.

It's actually sort of hard to believe that that's the case, but there HAS to be a SK. There is no other way to explain the night kills on Night 1 and 2. Because we only had one 1-shot Vig, other than Dsell. Perhaps, though, we only have 2 mafia, rather than 3? I thought the game was more balanced at 3, but maybe we're lucky.

Anyway, anyway, this is bad. Can't massclaim, have to protect the doctor/roleblocker, whoever.

And I have no idea who's who.

[Robz888]

Pops is a pretty weird kill? It seems like either a SK trying to hit scum or mafia trying to hit a role, though I never saw any indication that he was a role. So either someone was blocked, protected, or both SK and mafia targeted pops. Frankly I could never read him so I'm glad it's him over someone more solidly town.

Who is more solidly town than Pops? I don't think anybody is, actually.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Dsell - you are correct - myslynching is a big deal.  It's just that mislynching if there are 2 mafia is damn near game ending as town.  I didn't mean to be cavalier - only that of the assumptions to question here - this one is the least impactful if we are wrong about it.  I would strongly suggest that we play as if we have the worst case amount of scum.

All this and the fact that the people we keep lynching instead of you makes me suspicious, but then I'm suspicious of everyone right now.

.

I'm sure that you can see how I would feel exactly the same way about you.

Agreed on the strangeness of the pops kill.  He was on the upper end of my suspect list - seems like an easy dude to mislynch now that we know he is town.

[Captain_Frisk]

Pops is a pretty weird kill? It seems like either a SK trying to hit scum or mafia trying to hit a role, though I never saw any indication that he was a role. So either someone was blocked, protected, or both SK and mafia targeted pops. Frankly I could never read him so I'm glad it's him over someone more solidly town.

Who is more solidly town than Pops? I don't think anybody is, actually.

Come on dude - at this time yesterday you thought really thought pops was more town than SFS?

[Robz888]

No, but I thought Pops was more solidly town than you, Dsell, Axxle, Glooble, or Tables.

[Tables]

More solidly than me is interesting, personally, he was my second suspect to Axxle (and so would have been my main suspect today). But that's all in the past.

At this point, we need to consider even the former near-clears as potential mafia. For me, everyone except Glooble has given good reason for me to think they're not mafia: Robz based on his day 2 behavior, DSell based on the night kill pattern, SFS based on his claim, his posts, Pops clear, and the number of kills makes me think he was probably the one being protected by the doctor, Me because SFS said so and I trust him, and also because IIRC my Role PM said something about being town, Frisk because of his voting on day 2.

Of those, the weakest reasons are... Frisk and of course, Glooble. DSell is looking more likely to be Killer to me (Robz, rejoice!). So if I had to blanket guess the scum teams, those would be it - Frisk/Glooble/O as mafia, DSell as Killer.

[Robz888]

More solidly than me is interesting, personally, he was my second suspect to Axxle (and so would have been my main suspect today). But that's all in the past.

At this point, we need to consider even the former near-clears as potential mafia. For me, everyone except Glooble has given good reason for me to think they're not mafia: Robz based on his day 2 behavior, DSell based on the night kill pattern, SFS based on his claim, his posts, Pops clear, and the number of kills makes me think he was probably the one being protected by the doctor, Me because SFS said so and I trust him, and also because IIRC my Role PM said something about being town, Frisk because of his voting on day 2.

Of those, the weakest reasons are... Frisk and of course, Glooble. DSell is looking more likely to be Killer to me (Robz, rejoice!). So if I had to blanket guess the scum teams, those would be it - Frisk/Glooble/O as mafia, DSell as Killer.

Tables, I think there is zero chance you are mafia, but you could very well be the SK (and you could say the same for me). Pops I have thought to be town, pretty much the whole game. Since we do not want to lynch the SK this round, though, you are the noly person in the clear for me.

But anyway, I sort of agree with you that Frisk/Glooble/Dsell are not looking so good.

Dsell is probably the SK. There should have been 3 deaths two nights ago, not O. I can explain how 2 of them get blocked. I can't really explain all 3. The best explanation is that there weren't 3 kills. There were 2. Dsell is either a mafia or SK. He's probably the SK. The Mafia Thief roleblocked his kill--for fun, I guess? it did set us up to mislynch again while wasting Dsell's shot, so I guess that makes sense, or they may have correctly guessed that Dsell was SK and they didn't want him to lie and shoot somebody else, possibly one of them--and our Townie Hero successfully blocked the mafia kill.

Last night, the mafia again blocked Dsell, because they assume him to be the SK, and they obviously don't want him to get to fire a shot. And once again, we get lucky with the mafia kill?

Again, I think a possible explanation is just 1 mafia left alongside the SK, and he keeps using the roleblock power instead of the kill. Although how this game is balanced with just 3 scum in 15 people is hard to understand. Although Dsell is lying, so there aren't 2 one-shot vigs, and under this scenario we don't need a doctor or roleblocker or anything to explain the lack of kills. So perhaps we aren't looking for 2 mafia after all?

Anyway, I do think Dsell is the SK. So the question is: Frisk or Glooble? Or SFS?

[Robz888]

Another explanation is that last night they didn't block Dsell, they killed him, using up one of his shot protections. And he shot Pops.

It's also possible that two nights ago, they both blocked and shot Dsell. So there were no deaths.

[Tables]

If I had to start with one... I'd lean towards Glooble. But it's far, far too early to choose a target and stick with them. I need to reread day 4.

[Robz888]

Pops did say that we killed the wrong twin.