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[Axxle]

Actually the fact that you brought it up is pretty suspicious.

[Dsell]

I was the one who first raised awareness of the possibility of a SK among a pool of Robz, Jo, myself, and a few others.

err...

This is exactly my point. I realized that the case I was making pointed the finger of suspicion squarely on myself among others. What I'm saying is that if I were the SK, making that case would be really foolhardy because I might be able to go through the game without drawing any suspicion to myself.

I could say a similar thing about me, I think. Maybe. Kinda.

I'm talking about when I first brought up that case day 3. So, no, you really couldn't say a similar thing since you haven't done much of anything to help search for the SK nor have you made any cases that point to you as a potential SK. My initial analysis back in day 3 listed Axxle as a possible SK, so I still think that's a definite possibility.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 4-3

Axxle (4): Captain_Frisk, Robz888, Glooble, Dsell
popsofctown (1): Axxle

Not voting {3}: popsofctown, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Friday, July 20, at 7:59 a.m. EDT

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

--snip --
And lots of other possibilities. In particular, how likely is it that both the SK and mafia decided not to kill today, while DSell did? I think a very plausible situation is:

DSell is blocked, the mafia hit the SK, the SK hits the doctor target. Which is... interesting, to say the least. Unlikely, too.
--snip--

I have said this elswhere too, but I think this is the most likely scenario to explain the lack of deaths. I don't see town blocking Dsell to save Axxle, and no spent one-shot roleblockers have come forward (Robz asked for that info in 2946, asserting that there is no reason not to bring forward that info). So to me, that really leaves only two possibilities:

1) Dsell is telling the truth, was roleblocked by mafia. Why would mafia roleblock someone they know is town from killing someone? I don't buy confusion as the only reason here.  It makes much better sense that Axxle is mafia.
2) Dsell is lying.  Things branch from here obviously.  Is he lying town?  (Can someone give me a scenario under which a town player lying would be pro-town play?  I can only think of two.)

Let's assume we lynch Axxle@. We had no well defined next step for today if Axxle didn't die last night.  What is our plan for tomorrow if Axxle flips town? Do we lynch Dsell?  If Axxle flips mafia, what do we look at/do next?

@Axxle - You've posted thrice since Dsell put you at L-1, and each was simply to engage Dsell.  Any broader thoughts? If you die, what do you think town's next step should be?  Your vote is on Pops.  Do you think he is the last remaining mafia, or do you think he has a remaining partner? If he has a partner, who is it?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

--snip--
No one has come up with any sort of decent reason not to lynch Axxle2.

Pops, is this still true in your mind? Cause your vote is still unassigned.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Going for a swim, out for the next few hours.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok - There are 9 possible alignment scenarios (actually

1. Axxle Town / DSell Town Vig
Someone would have needed to roleblock DSell (or doctor Axxle).  The only semi reasonable scenario here is that Mafia roleblocked DSell to get line up 2 mislynches on town.  Lining up only 1 mislynch on Axxle is useless - because he could have died anyway.  Mafia target and Serial Killer target were somehow blocked.

2. Axxle Town / DSell Serial Killer
This is fundamentally the same as above.  The fact that it is should mean that even if Axxle flips town - DSell is not clear.

3. Axxle Town / DSell Mafia
Mafia targed someone else and was doctored, and then was hoping to use Axxle's lack of death to point to him as the serial killer and mislynch him today.  The real serial killer was roleblocked.  It's also possible that DSell is a mafia roleblocker - and DSell's mafia partner executed the NK and was roleblocked.

Note: All of the above scenarios involve double luck of blocked mafia and doctor kills.

4. Axxle Serial Killer / DSell Town Vig
Axxle doesn't die because he's bullet proof.  Still requires blocked mafia and SK kills

5. Axxle Serial Killer / DSell Serial Killer
This is a secret bastard mod game.  +1,000 more for voltgloss.

6. Axxle Serial Killer / DSell Mafia
Axxle doesn't die because he's bullet proof.  Doctor / roleblocker stops Axxles kill.  Mafia target doesn't need to be explained because it's Axxle.


7. Axxle Mafia / DSell Town Vig
Mafia kill is blocked somehow, Mafia roleblocks DSell to keep Axxle alive and throw suspicion on DSell.  Serial killer is roleblocked / doctored. 

8. Axxle Mafia / DSell Serial Killer
Same as above without the need to explain the SK roleblocking / doctoring.

9.  Axxle Mafia / DSell Mafia
They are in deep crap here.  Mafia actually targets someone else and kill is blocked (SK bulletproof).  Serial killer is also blocked.

So - SFS - in answer to your question - I find scenario 1 to be extremely unlikely.  If Axxle2 flips mafia - I think we should strongly consider a DSell lynch - although this does play directly into the hypothetical mafia power play (giving up a kill (by roleblocking DSell) to secure 2 mislynches)  The absence of a Kill last night would suggest that if Mafia did block DSell to protect town - that DSell is actually likely to be the SK.  Of course - we'll need to look at the number of people left in town before we do this.  As RobZ pointed out - it is possible to get into a situation where lynching the serial killer results in a mafia win.

If Axxle flips Serial Killer (scenarios 4,6)
DSell may still be mafia, but I don't think we go in with a predefined plan to lynch him.

If Axxle flips Mafia (scenarios 7,8,9)
DSell could be still be SK (he can never clear himself now that he's allegedly used his shot - since the only way to do so was to have 3 kills last night!)

Actually: with that reason.

Unvote

[Captain_Frisk]

Note: I still believe Axxle to be scummy as all get out.

What I'm saying is that DSell is scummy 2.

If Dsell is telling the truth, we need to explain 3 blocked kills

If DSell is lying, we only need to explain 2.

We should at least discuss this before lynching Axxle.

[Glooble]

But it will be a much more productive discussion after we know Axxle's alignment, imo. Less theoretical, less "if this than this" stuff that makes my brain hurt.

I'm going to be out most of today. Leaving my vote where it is.

[Robz888]

Here's something I haven't seen explicitly mentioned, but it's a good explanation, probably: the mafia tried to kill the SK (probably not intentionally). The mafia could have shot the SK, not killing him because of the one-shot immune. That's probably more likely than them choosing to kill the same person and having it overlap with Doctor protection.

[Voltgloss]

... That's probably more likely than them choosing to kill the same person and having it overlap with Doctor protection.

You mean they can't save someone who got shot by two people in the night?

@Voltgloss - Can you confirm the behavior of simultaneous targeting of Doctor, Vig / Serial Killer and Mafia?

Chaplain {Doctor} and Moat Builder {One-Shot Doctor} both protect their target from one nightkill.  So if one Doctor role protects Player X, and Player X gets targeted by two nightkilling roles, then Player X is still going to die (absent any other interference).  The Doctor protection stops one and only one of the nightkills; the "extra" nightkill goes through after the Doctor protection resolves.

If two Doctor roles protect Player X, and two nightkilling roles target Player X, then Player X survives.  Each of the two Doctors prevents one of the two nightkills.

Again:  no burn intended. 

[Robz888]

... That's probably more likely than them choosing to kill the same person and having it overlap with Doctor protection.

You mean they can't save someone who got shot by two people in the night?

@Voltgloss - Can you confirm the behavior of simultaneous targeting of Doctor, Vig / Serial Killer and Mafia?

Chaplain {Doctor} and Moat Builder {One-Shot Doctor} both protect their target from one nightkill.  So if one Doctor role protects Player X, and Player X gets targeted by two nightkilling roles, then Player X is still going to die (absent any other interference).  The Doctor protection stops one and only one of the nightkills; the "extra" nightkill goes through after the Doctor protection resolves.

If two Doctor roles protect Player X, and two nightkilling roles target Player X, then Player X survives.  Each of the two Doctors prevents one of the two nightkills.

Again:  no burn intended. 

Yes! That's right. We keep forgetting that. Okay. So I think the mafia kill hitting the Serial Killer is probably the most likely explanation for what happened.

Frisk, the reason we should kill Axxle and believe Dsell is because there were no kills. There are only a couple ways for kills to have been blocked: doctor protection, roleblocker, one-shot immunity. Since we have to explain several misfires, we have to seriously contemplate that a Mafia Thief was responsible for one of them. And if so, Dsell is the only person really vulnerable to the Thief, because he is the only person whose kill was announced ahead of time.

It's like this: the mafia are Axxle, and an ally of his. The Thief roleblocked Dsell, so Dsell's kill fails. The mafia targeted the SK, so their kill failed. The SK targeted somebody else, who the doctor saved.

Of course Dsell could be the SK. Actually that might explain a lack of death. IF Dsell is not a mafia, the mafia want to kill Dsell. So they shoot him (possibly and roleblock him, if Axxle is a mafia, which I think he is), but he doesn't die because he is an immune SK. And then... there are no other kills.

Oh. So actually, that better explains what happened. Ugh.

Of course, we'd rather kill the mafia than the SK at this point.

[popsofctown]

I'm mostly just confused

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 4-4

Axxle (3): Robz888, Glooble, Dsell
popsofctown (1): Axxle

Not voting {4}: popsofctown, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Captain_Frisk

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Friday, July 20, at 7:59 a.m. EDT

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm mostly just confused

That seems very unlike you.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm mostly just confused

Should we lynch Axxle?

[Captain_Frisk]

@RobZ

Agreed - my point was rather that we should discuss it, rather than just lynching.  You seemed to agree with this prior, and since we were up to L-1, I figured I'd cool it for a second to make sure that we were all on the same page before shenanigans occured.

If DSell is a vig - we need to explain 3 kills, and since a doctor only protects against 1 kill, and there are no jailkeepers, the ways for kills to be not register are:

- Multiple people target the same person.  Not an option here because nobody died.  It was in theory possible on nights 1 and 2, where grujah may have shot the same person as mafia or serial killer.  (Barring a pops is unclaimed vig solution)

- Killer is roleblocked

- Kill target is doctored

- Kill target is bulletproof.

If DSell was a 1 shot vig and did shoot Axxle2, then Axxle2 could either be a serial killer (and bulletproof) - which ticks off 1 kill.  Then someone needs to have blocked / doctored Axxle's kill (or Axxle2 no killed) AND someone needs to have blocked / doctored the mafia kill.  It's not impossible.   However - if DSell was lying - and is mafia - then now we only need to explain the blocking and / or doctoring of Axxle2's kill (if we assume SK immunity blocked the first).  Neither scenario is impossible... but the latter requires significantly less luck.

If Axxle is mafia, then roleblocking explains DSell's shot failing.  However, if DSell is SK - then we only need someone to block the mafia kill.  If DSell is truly vig - then again we need someone to block the mafia kill AND the serial killer.

I suppose that of the two of them - Axxle2 being town is still less likely - because as town - he would have actually voted to have himself shot with a town power just for a chance of lynching mafia in Jonah.

I'm still happy having him lynched, I'm just concerned that DSell is Mafia and Axxle2 is serial killer - and as you pointed out - we would rather lynch mafia.  I don't have a compelling feeling one way or another.  Axxle2 could be SK - in which case he knew his NK immunity would save him from DSell - putting his claim into question, or he could be Mafia and he knew he had roleblocking in some protection - so he'd at least survive 1 more day - and again be able to point to DSell suspicion. 

Food for thought.  I've got family in this evening, so I'll probably be reading but not posting a bunch.  If everyone other than DSell and Axxle are on one wagon or the other - I'll hammer it.  Otherwise I'll stay @ L-2 to ensure discussion.  As RobZ pointed out - no rush here.

[Robz888]

@Frisk, I think Dsell might be slightly more likely to be scum at this point than Axxle, but Axxle more likely to be mafia. If Dsell is scum he's the SK. If Dsell is mafia, they are probably both mafia, and we'll be okay either way. SO I still think--think--the Axxle kill makes the most sense?

I understand your hesitance. I'm really worried that the mafia--for all I know, that's you--is laughing at us.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

VOTE: AXXLE

That takes us back to L-1.

[popsofctown]

I'm mostly just confused

Should we lynch Axxle?

probably

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm mostly just confused

Should we lynch Axxle?

probably

Have any plans to join us?

[popsofctown]

I'd be the hammer vote yes? Axxle hasn't claimed yet, that I can recall.  And people might have last things to talk about.

[Axxle]

Axxle hasn't claimed yet, that I can recall

[popsofctown]

Did you claim VT?  I can't remember whether I'm remembering 1 or 2 doing so

[Axxle]

Did you claim VT?  I can't remember whether I'm remembering 1 or 2 doing so

Yeah, I claimed VT yesterday.