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Author Topic: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS!)  (Read 338280 times)

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Axxle

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2850 on: July 03, 2012, 09:17:42 pm »

How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.

70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.

Coming from you, Robz...

And with that post we have exactly the same number of posts in this thread as WW has in the entire forum (minus the few he has in Forum Games I guess).  Yay!
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2851 on: July 03, 2012, 09:18:26 pm »

I'm going to be leaving soon for maybe an hour or two, so I'm not going to hammer right now, to allow for more discussion to happen while I'm gone. If someone else wants to hammer that's fine.
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2852 on: July 03, 2012, 09:18:32 pm »

How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.

70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.

THEY HAVE THE SAME EFFING DEOXYRIBONUCLEIC ACID SEQUENCE
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2853 on: July 03, 2012, 09:19:51 pm »

How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.

So SFS (town) and 7 other players (presumably you know your own aligment) - probably 3 scum  - and you're 70% sure he's not.  So your read on him is slightly lower than average scumchance than average.

Glooble - what makes you so confident on him vs. myself and pops?  What differentiates us in your mind?  We have the same voting history on the big ones - pops made a show of voting for O (but forgot to lynch him) - J tried to kill himself - and I'm the PoE of the group?
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2854 on: July 03, 2012, 09:24:12 pm »

How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.

70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.

THEY HAVE THE SAME EFFING DEOXYRIBONUCLEIC ACID SEQUENCE
That's actually assuming too much.  They never claimed identical twins.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2855 on: July 03, 2012, 09:25:48 pm »

How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.

70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.

THEY HAVE THE SAME EFFING DEOXYRIBONUCLEIC ACID SEQUENCE
That's actually assuming too much.  They never claimed identical twins.
No wait, they did.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2856 on: July 03, 2012, 09:28:09 pm »

I also find it hilarious that they also both claim "worst mafia ever" around the same time as the twinclaim.
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SwitchedFromStarcraft

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2857 on: July 03, 2012, 09:29:15 pm »

I'm going to wait and hear from the folks I addressed questions to.
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Glooble

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2858 on: July 03, 2012, 09:30:10 pm »

I don't have time to go pull quotes, but I'll try and answer your question real quick.

pops is a big ol' question mark for me. I still don't buy that he forgot he wasn't voting for O, and he had some scummy interactions with Galz day 2, when Galz proposed Robz was SK. But his attacks on O are way too aggressive to be bussing. For me that clears him, or at least makes him the least scummy of the three options you gave.

Putting aside any "reads" or "gut feelings", what makes you feel scummier than jo to me is just the fact that I think O and jo both being mafia would be monumentally stupid strategy for scum to pursue.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2859 on: July 03, 2012, 09:31:36 pm »

I'm going to wait and hear from the folks I addressed questions to.

Since you're here - will you answer mine?
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2860 on: July 03, 2012, 09:33:24 pm »

lynch frisk and shoot axxle.  It's so easy.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)
« Reply #2861 on: July 03, 2012, 09:39:56 pm »

kinda have to lynch Axxle now.  Self voters flip bad more often then not, and the only explanation for a player trying to cause their own death is WIFOM so that they actually survive - which then becomes a survivalist tell.

Explain to me why you're ok with Axxle death (for almost self voting), but you're not ok with J death (for actually self voting).

Difficulty: no twinclaim - which Glooble has even backed off of.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2862 on: July 03, 2012, 09:53:22 pm »

Vote Count 3-15

Axxle (2): popsofctown, jotheonah
jotheonah (4): Axxle, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Tables

Not voting {3}: Glooble, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Dsell

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Thursday, July 12, 4:59 p.m. EDT
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2863 on: July 03, 2012, 09:54:10 pm »

Glooble is still 70% sure, good enough for me.  90% sure it's not mafia.


And joth is scummy for self voting, because it's an intrinsically scummy behavior.  It's just not the only thing on his scorecard, he comes out positive.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2864 on: July 03, 2012, 09:56:05 pm »

And joth is scummy for self voting, because it's an intrinsically scummy behavior.  It's just not the only thing on his scorecard, he comes out positive.

I don't see how this is true, but you're not going to explain it anyway. I am, however, willing to lynch Frisk, shoot Axxle if that's what's agreed on.
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2865 on: July 03, 2012, 09:58:22 pm »

Do you know I'm not going to explain it because I already did when I condemned Axxle for the behavior?  Because that should be the only basis for the prediction. 
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2866 on: July 03, 2012, 09:59:17 pm »

does anyone like my avatar? :(
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2867 on: July 03, 2012, 10:03:24 pm »

I can't quite tell what your avatar is. It's distinctive, though!

I think you thought I was talking about the first half of that quote. I was talking about the second half. I don't believe that his scorecard comes out ahead.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2868 on: July 03, 2012, 10:06:56 pm »

Do you know I'm not going to explain it because I already did when I condemned Axxle for the behavior?  Because that should be the only basis for the prediction.

Can you find the quote in which you already explained it?

Here's are your quotes from the period:

of course, you have to play to your current wincon in the good spirit of things

Axxle is suicidal?

I need a gif of kyon facepalming.

kinda have to lynch Axxle now.  Self voters flip bad more often then not, and the only explanation for a player trying to cause their own death is WIFOM so that they actually survive - which then becomes a survivalist tell.

No.
You'll get nothing and like it.

Joth doesn't know any better.  Burden of Proficiency

Thank you very much for the gif.

Dsell needs to have his nightkill selected for him, and then perform it.  Announcing it isn't enough, scumDsell would just announce a townie's name.  Lynches are democratically decided the way this will be, town overall exert more control. 

If he doesn't want to do it he can die.

I'm guessing you're referring to #4 (thanks for quoting btw).  J has played enough games to know that self voting is bad play (see Mafia II: Morgrim, Mafia III: Galzria) so this reason is invalid.
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2869 on: July 03, 2012, 10:10:09 pm »

Ok then, I'll start holding it against Jo.  I still don't want to lynch Jo.

I guess if you haven't played age of empires I could see the pixels being hard to interpret.  The water has small fishing ships on it with red and white sails.  Some are casting white nets off the side of the brown boat.

It's supposed to be a Fishing Village.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2870 on: July 03, 2012, 10:11:33 pm »

It's supposed to be a Fishing Village.

Is this commentary on our sad state of scumhunting in this town?
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Tables

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2871 on: July 03, 2012, 10:19:56 pm »

does anyone like my avatar? :(

No. Fishing traps are terrible. Use farmers instead.
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2872 on: July 03, 2012, 10:33:07 pm »

Fishing Village is stronger than Farming Village though :/
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2873 on: July 03, 2012, 10:34:51 pm »

Fishing Village is stronger than Farming Village though :/

Why don't we change this thread into a debate as to whether fishing village should cost 4.
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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #2874 on: July 03, 2012, 10:58:11 pm »

It should cost five.  Id still buy it sometimesi

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