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[Robz888]

I'm inclined not to believe Dsell's claim. I'm going out for a while, and plan to re-vote him after thinking it over.

[Axxle]

I see no benefit for not claiming one of the kills was him if he saw what you posted.

[Captain_Frisk]

Wow - didn't see DSell's claim (refreshed after a long conference call and started @ the end)

That is a strange claim.  I can believe multiple 1 shot vigs (I guess) - but it does seem somewhat unlikely.  I do agree that there are better fake claims, and I tend to agree that shooting J would make a whole lost of sense - if just for the information and improvement of signal to noise.  (Note: J's signal has been stronger today).  WIFOM.

If I hammer him - where do we go next?  If Mafia - we're rocking.  If town -> what have we learned?

PPE - Looks like the hammer option is gone.

[Dsell]

The major flaw to this idea is that all of the above could apply if it were a vig kill. I imagine both SK and vig want to hit mafia night 2. However, I think a vig kill is highly unlikely because we know for sure that we had 1 woodcutter, which suggests to me that we most likely do not have a full vig. If that's the case we either have a SK or different woodcutters used their 1-shots on the first two nights. That strikes me as unlikely because 1-shot vig is something that seems much more useful towards the endgame when the chances of hitting mafia are much stronger.

I've never been a vig or serial killer (I wouldn't post this if I was this game...) so I don't know exactly what the mindset is but it seems far more strategic to me to use the 1-shot later rather than sooner, when you have a stronger read and a better chance of hitting even at random. To me it seems worth the risk of getting NK'd.

These are really the relevant quotes from me pertaining to the woodcutter idea. I state my strategy as woodcutter, thinking it was pretty obvious that that's the most reasonable strategy as woodcutter. Otherwise, it's a major liability to the town rather than an asset.

In the second quote, I attempt to throw the mafia off my scent. Like I said, I REALLY do not like softclaims and I figured I needed to be around until the endgame to best use my kill. Notice I said, "I've never been a vig or serial killer" but don't mention woodcutters. That's because while it makes no sense to post all that about the serial killer if I was one or the other, it makes PERFECT sense if I'm the woodcutter and have the added knowledge that none of the night 1 and 2 kills were from me.

[Captain_Frisk]

I see no benefit for not claiming one of the kills was him if he saw what you posted.

There's a huge benefit to claiming that he didn't.  If mafia - He can say "keep me alive to use my power in the future".  He can also at any time in the future - take credit for a mafia kill.  For example: he could kill me at night - and say "it was me - I used my 1 shot - we all agreed CF was scum!"  If we command him to use his power - and he doesn't want to (because we target mafia) - he can claim mafia roleblocker.  Finally, by not claiming one of the kills - he gets to drum up witch fear - which would be harder if there were no unexplained kills.

Of course from where i sit on the fence, I'd be pretty pissed if I was DSell and was true-claiming.  One wrong vote and all the sudden I'm getting lynched and I didn't even get to use my power. 

[Dsell]

@Robz, I don't know why you thought I would have killed Theorel. On day 1 I said he was acting scummily by misrepresenting what I said but that I thought he was town.

@Jo from forever ago when I said you had a town read on me before. I went back to check. We were both right. You said you had a town read on me but mostly no read, which made you suspicious of me. So it was a hedge. But sorry, I thought there were more instances of it than that. I lost the link and don't want to go find it again.

[popsofctown]

You don't lynch a player who has any chance of verifying his claim unless you're in Lylo.  Direct his kill for tonight, re assess tomorrow.

[Captain_Frisk]

oh my god

my eyes are bleeding

such bad mafia play

dude, you don't have to hardclaim after a soft claim like that.  Just stick with the softclaim.  Capslocked posts asking for unvotes are rather clear softclaims.

getting him to L-1 so quickly was also bad mafia play to start with.

Pops - please do me a favor and stop being such a jerk.  Not everyone else has played a million times before.  I didn't realize that all caps lock posts were "softclaims" and that the convention is to let them slide.  If DSell is also newish like me - he's not aware of this either.  Most of the people here are not mafiascum veterans - and are unaware of such conventions.

This isn't "I'm sorry, I'm a newb defense".  There are alot of conventions / tells etc. that are out there that aren't immediately visible when searching things like "How do I play mafia / werewolf".

I'd like to suggest we set up a thread to discuss conventions and mafia theory - but I don't think we'll ever be able to post there because of ongoing games and fear of polluting them.

There are so many better ways to get your point across that don't make you sound like a giant insulting ass - and based on your other posts on this forum - you are clearly capable of doing so.

Check this out:

DSell - In the future - as a town PR - you probably shouldn't claim if you don't need to.  Once they unvoted, you should stick with the implied power role claim.  <insert theory reason on why this is a sound strategy>.

[popsofctown]

I do too post like an asshole elsewhere on the forums.  I think.

[popsofctown]

I haven't played with newbies in a long time.  I'm used to assuming suboptimal play is from the subset of players that don't try very hard to reach their win con, or that have heard better advice from others but are too arrogant to take it.

[jotheonah]

Ok, team, I'd love to hear other thoughts on

A) Do you believe Dsell's claim?

and

B) If we decide to give Dsell one more night to use his power, who do we lynch today?

(I'm saying Axxle or CF)

[Robz888]

If we let Dsell live, we MUST agree on who he should lynch tonight.

[jotheonah]

So, we have to decide on two lynch targets and neither of them can be Dsell? Oh joy. LEt's hand him the game in exchange for a phony role claim.

[Captain_Frisk]

So, we have to decide on two lynch targets and neither of them can be Dsell? Oh joy. LEt's hand him the game in exchange for a phony role claim.

Isn't this damn near exactly what you just proposed?

B) If we decide to give Dsell one more night to use his power, who do we lynch today?

[jotheonah]

Yeah, you're right, but then I thought about and realized it's a terrible idea if he's scum or SK.  Really pops proposed it.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

So, we have to decide on two lynch targets and neither of them can be Dsell? Oh joy. LEt's hand him the game in exchange for a phony role claim.

this

[jotheonah]

Vote: Dsell

Ultimately not buying it.

[Axxle]

Joth: Worst that can happen is that we enter LYLO, not lose.

[Axxle]

Joth: Worst that can happen is that we enter LYLO, not lose.

And in that case it's probably safe to lynch DSell.

[Captain_Frisk]

Joth: Worst that can happen is that we enter LYLO, not lose.

This is only the case if we assume that he's the last of the vigs.

Worst case - we have 6 town - 3 mafia.  We mislynch - 5-3.  Another vig shoots town - 4-3.  Mafia night kill - 3-3.  Game over mafia wins.

Worst case - we have 6 town - 2 mafia - 1 sk.  We mislynch. 5/2/1 - Serial Killer Kills - 4/2/1.  Mafia Kills - 3/2/1.  If there's another vig who can't shoot straight, we also lose (2/2/1)

[Axxle]

If there's another vig, speak now and let's lynch DSell now.  Otherwise your points are invalid.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh - actually we don't lose at 2-2-1 because its theoretically possible for the serial killer to kill the remaining mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

Edit 2 - if we do have a vig, we theoretically can stay alive @ 3-3?

[Robz888]

There's no way our town had 3 one-shot vigs. That would be poor design: 5 people could die Night 1. If there is another one-shot vig out there, claim now.

[popsofctown]

There's no way our town had 3 one-shot vigs. That would be poor design: 5 people could die Night 1. If there is another one-shot vig out there, claim now.