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[Captain_Frisk]

It bothers me that neither of our likely-confirmed townies are on this wagon.

--snip--

The case against C_F is really strong and the fact that Galz supported/supports it does make me a little more ok with that decision. I will not even consider voting, however, until we hear more from Tables and probably SFS.

I agree with statement 1.

I disagree with 2.  My voting history is no more scummy than several other candidates (pops, Jonah have identical voting histories), and even the mighty galzria was wrong on axxle1, and dsell was with me on the o vote.

J's case is: Frisk didn't vote for O.  His quotes are me explaining why I wasn't.  Fine. 

If you lynch me - pay attention to everyone who feels the case against me is strong.  RobZ seems to have his head on his shoulders, even if I have a negative gut reaction to him steering the discussion.

[jotheonah]

There's a lot more in those quotes than Frisk "explaining why he wasn't voting for O."  He does everything he can to put the breaks on that wagon.

Earlier today I was saying "Scum wouldn't abstain from voting, scum would bus."  But when I was saying that I hadn't looked at the way Frisk had abstained and the fact that he seemed to be trying to get others to unvote or to switch the target to me. Actually rereading the O wagon, I find myself looking at a whole different ballgame than when I was just remembering it.

(I still think at least one scum was bussing though.)

[Dsell]

C_F, if you believed there was no case against O, why would you put him in your "maybe willing to lynch" category? This is what I continually fail to understand from you. I would not even maybe be willing to lynch someone if I thought there was no case there (ok MAYBE if we were up against a tight deadline...which we were). It looks like you put O in that category because you didn't want to be accused of defending him, even though you were TOTALLY unwilling to lynch him. That makes your list seem less-than-honest.

Furthermore, how could you NOT see a case against O? Or even less than a case, how could you not see his totally bizarre and scummy behavior under pressure? I thought his behavior was VERY scummy though I guess I agree that the case against him was not particularly strong. The thing for me was that Galz looked even MORE scummy, though obviously I was just misinterpreting things there. I still thought O was pretty dang scummy though and would have voted for him in a heartbeat over a no-lynch.

I said, regarding Galz, that if he flipped town, his scumhunting would be very valuable because it can be confirmed to be true. So I think that is not a bad place to start on Day 3.

[Captain_Frisk]

Have you played with O before?  Do you remember what he did to me day 1?  Imho o plays an intentionally shady game.  I view lynching him as effectively random, because he always looks scummy - and yet he plays that way even when town.    I had him in the maybe category because - its better than lynching tables / SFS, but I didn't see anything more scummy than usual o shenanigans.

[Dsell]

Have you played with O before?  Do you remember what he did to me day 1?  Imho o plays an intentionally shady game.  I view lynching him as effectively random, because he always looks scummy - and yet he plays that way even when town.    I had him in the maybe category because - its better than lynching tables / SFS, but I didn't see anything more scummy than usual o shenanigans.

I totally understand, and if you'd go back to the end of D2 and read, you'd see that I was hesitant to lynch based on playstyle too. But if you were unwilling to lynch him-even based on playstyle-I believe you should not put him in a "maybe willing to lynch" category.

[Captain_Frisk]

Have you played with O before?  Do you remember what he did to me day 1?  Imho o plays an intentionally shady game.  I view lynching him as effectively random, because he always looks scummy - and yet he plays that way even when town.    I had him in the maybe category because - its better than lynching tables / SFS, but I didn't see anything more scummy than usual o shenanigans.

I totally understand, and if you'd go back to the end of D2 and read, you'd see that I was hesitant to lynch based on playstyle too. But if you were unwilling to lynch him-even based on playstyle-I believe you should not put him in a "maybe willing to lynch" category.

All right - this is my last post because the ipad died and I'm supposed to be outside cooking chicken.  Will you please stop being wrong on the internet so I can eat dinner in peace? (http://xkcd.com/386/)

At the time I put the list together - I was maybe.  In the end - I decided not to.  That's in the well within the probable outcomes of "maybe".  I wasn't convinced - so I didn't vote.  This won't be the last time I was wrong.  That is the most honest answer I can give you.

[Tables]

I am online - but I will not be hammering O.  I hope that he is Mafia, and I generally agree with Robz's theory that there is mafia among the set of

Jo
Galzria
O
Glooble
Captain_Frisk
Pops

I don't understand why the logic for why O is in here.  He's the first member of the non Axxlewagon to jump on the Grujah wagon? 

...

Tables, did C_F make a list? I checked and I couldn't find where he said that, he seemed opposed to making one. It would certainly be suspicious if, like I think you're saying, he listed O as being a "willing to lynch" but then was unwilling to lynch.

I did make a list (was the last, or 2nd to last prior to Dsell?).  I had O squarely in the middle - because I viewed his playstyle as intentionally semi scummy... the type of thing he can play every game and be considered crazy enough to let live, but not scummy enough to lynch.  I'm not the only one who felt O was tough to read.

I didn't want to lynch because I felt like the decision to lynch him was time pressure based and potentially being steered by Scum - who were just picking a viable candidate after seeing everyone's votes.  If he flipped town - I wanted the maximum information from people who voted for him... and me being on there removed information for me.  If he flipped mafia - great!

Of course - I didn't consider that I'd be sitting in a pool of 4 people who look really scummy right now.

PPE - 7 more replies!

@Dsell - I think i've answered my no O vote.  As for lurking - you aren't now - that is true (although 20 replies came in while I was looking up the voting history).  It is true however, that you were an infrequent poster in past days.

(emphasis mine)

At risk of driving Frisk mad at me (especially if he's town), here's something that's bugging me. This is his explanation of not voting O before the lynch - a reasonable explanation, at least - and his reasoning afterwards as he comes under fire. I find this strange, especially the bolded part, as although Pops is the one who started list mania, I was the one who took it over, and nobody is suspicious of me now or were then. So this feels somewhat worrying to me. However, the more I think about it, the more I find this to be likely a townie arguing his case, and having to explain a simple point again and again in different ways. So I'm far from convinced by this, still.

It bothers me that neither of our likely-confirmed townies are on this wagon. Tables did list C_F as quite suspicious when he last posted, though. SFS is on jo and has laid out a pretty strong string of posts linking O and jo, and to be honest I still am having trouble swallowing jo's ridiculous about-face in playing style. O's lynch must have really sobered him up. However, he's making strong arguments that (he's right!), are based on logic and not just anyone-but-me. THIS WORRIES ME but hey, I'll accept it for now.

The case against C_F is really strong and the fact that Galz supported/supports it does make me a little more ok with that decision. I will not even consider voting, however, until we hear more from Tables and probably SFS.

If one of us joins this wagon, it's pretty likely it'll go straight through fairly quickly. I'd rather that not happen, and I'm not at a point where I'm happy to vote and say 'I would most like this person lynched'. We're onto day 3 now, so there's very little need to vote people as pressure, talking and evidence is more than enough. However... this slightly feels like a coax into getting one of us to vote prematurely. I can see why you'd want one of us to vote, but there's, what, two or three more scum out there? You could hit deadline with nothing but townies and potentially still not need one of us on the wagon. Even then, SFS was the hammer last time, and if a case looks convincing, it looks convincing and I'll probably join. For now, I'm not convinced.

[Dsell]

It bothers me that neither of our likely-confirmed townies are on this wagon. Tables did list C_F as quite suspicious when he last posted, though. SFS is on jo and has laid out a pretty strong string of posts linking O and jo, and to be honest I still am having trouble swallowing jo's ridiculous about-face in playing style. O's lynch must have really sobered him up. However, he's making strong arguments that (he's right!), are based on logic and not just anyone-but-me. THIS WORRIES ME but hey, I'll accept it for now.

The case against C_F is really strong and the fact that Galz supported/supports it does make me a little more ok with that decision. I will not even consider voting, however, until we hear more from Tables and probably SFS.

If one of us joins this wagon, it's pretty likely it'll go straight through fairly quickly. I'd rather that not happen, and I'm not at a point where I'm happy to vote and say 'I would most like this person lynched'. We're onto day 3 now, so there's very little need to vote people as pressure, talking and evidence is more than enough. However... this slightly feels like a coax into getting one of us to vote prematurely. I can see why you'd want one of us to vote, but there's, what, two or three more scum out there? You could hit deadline with nothing but townies and potentially still not need one of us on the wagon. Even then, SFS was the hammer last time, and if a case looks convincing, it looks convincing and I'll probably join. For now, I'm not convinced.

Where did I ever ask you to vote? Just the opposite, I wouldn't even consider it until you've posted more because you hadn't in a while and a fair amount had happened with Frisk. A single vote pushes him to L-1, and I am not interested in that yet, especially when there's still people we haven't heard much from. Indeed, I'm doing just what you suggested by trying to get information by asking questions and pointing out inconsistencies, rather than parking a vote there. Or were you talking about someone else besides me?

[Captain_Frisk]

So a quick look at the remaining contestants:

On my wagon currently: Axxle2, Pops, Jonah
- Axxle2 - I've been somewhat defensive of Axxle2 - given that I misylynched RL Axxle1 falsely for playing more or less the same... low post count - short posts - not helpful.  In his last 25 posts on the forum - he has 1 in here - which is a hedge that I look like I'm flailing, and that J looks too pushy.  When voting in the pops / tables "who would I lynch" game - he provided no commentary.  The only thing he has going for him is that he did vote for O.
- Pops - Pops has been AFK for 28 hours as of this posting.
- Jonah
Has voted for:
- Grujah (Day 1 Wagon - #699)
- Axxle (Day 1 anyone but me #848)
- RobZ (#1283 - for more action)
- Galzria (#1313 - OMGUS vote in response to Galz vote against him)
- RobZ  (#1386) - Sheeping Galz
- Galzria again: 1474 (claims pops or Galz is mafia - not an uncommon opinion @ the time)
- Pops #1670 - explicitly sheeping Galz
- Pops #1694 - had unvoted in the middle reasons unclear in post - we'll learn something he says
- HIMSELF #1793 - If I had a dominion time machine - I would use to Hammer him here,.
- Axxle2 #1817 - galz liked this one for voting his own reads vs. sheeping Galz.
- Grujah - #1973 - Jumping on the grujah wagon in slot #4.
- Galzria - #2165 - Claims Galz had bad logic.  I agreed with this post at the time.
- Frisk - #2461

Looking back at this I was hoping to find some major tell - but I don't see it.  Multiple attempts to lynch Grujah and Galz - but you'll find that on me too - and I'm town.  Rather than delete it - since it took time to go back and re-read some of this stuff - I figured I'd leave it in.  He never voted for O, and hasn't said much about Dsell that I can see, but that's not super incriminating.

Voting for Jonah:
SFS - Trustworthy town - even if I don't necessarily trust his reads.  His digging into Jonah was interesting.

Not Voting:
DSell - V/LA - Under the radar - apart him from thinking I'm suspicious - I don't really have any issue with him.  He has been consistently suspicious of me - this isn't a new thing - although he did have me low down on his list.
RobZ - Vocal - I think he's twice made bad "there is no SK" analysis - but hard to find fault with the man.
Glooble - Quiet - twinclaim
Tables - really doesn't post alot.  Saved our bacon with driving Pop's list through.  If he turns out to be scum @ the end - I will buy him a beer if I'm ever in the same city as him.
Captain_Frisk - oh - thats me.  Bad voting history.  Looks likely to be falsely lynched.

I'd really like to here more from Pops - where are you buddy?  His vote on me was barely justified - all I did was clarify Axxle2's justification for voting for me - which was he didn't like the way that O treated me.  I don't like that as a primary justification.  O's a good enough player to control who he says what about.

I am happy to see the more likely town folks not on my wagon - and my scum suspects sitting on me. 

My #1 suspect here at this point is pops.  First I hope he's ok and everything - but this seems like the perfect way to lynch me and get away with it - put a vote down - and then hope that someone else does the arguing for him.

When I flip - whoever pushed hard for it is going to look extra scummy - so I don't expect the mafia to push hard - which actually lowers J a little bit in my mind.

Has anyone compiled the RobZ lists?

[Tables]

[quotes]

Where did I ever ask you to vote? Just the opposite, I wouldn't even consider it until you've posted more because you hadn't in a while and a fair amount had happened with Frisk. A single vote pushes him to L-1, and I am not interested in that yet, especially when there's still people we haven't heard much from. Indeed, I'm doing just what you suggested by trying to get information by asking questions and pointing out inconsistencies, rather than parking a vote there. Or were you talking about someone else besides me?

Hm. In all likelihood, I was reading into an innocent statement something that meant nothing above face value. But reading that post felt like it could have been a subtle prod to try and speed things up, and get me to make a decision - especially as the current swing ofmuch of the town is towards Frisk, this felt like you were trying to egg me onto the wagon. But in retrospect, I don't think this theory holds much ground.

Carry on as you were.

Also:

...
Tables - really doesn't post alot.  Saved our bacon with driving Pop's list through.  If he turns out to be scum @ the end - I will buy him a beer if I'm ever in the same city as him....

[Insert one of claiming mafia now to get beer or asking the mod to change my alignment here]

On a more serious note though, I'm liking the analysis in that last post. I'd really like to hear from Glooble a bit more, actually. He's said a bit recently, but like me, he tends to be on only once or twice per day.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I see a lot of flailing from CF.  And Joth seems a little too pushy.  I'll come back tonight and look through all of CF's posts to see if I can't come up with something to convince the nonvoters (SwitchedFromStarcraft, Dsell, Robz888, Glooble, Tables) that this is the right course of action.

Please don't represent me as a non-voter when my vote has been on Jo since my wall-o'-text summary of O's posts.

[Axxle]

I see a lot of flailing from CF.  And Joth seems a little too pushy.  I'll come back tonight and look through all of CF's posts to see if I can't come up with something to convince the nonvoters (SwitchedFromStarcraft, Dsell, Robz888, Glooble, Tables) that this is the right course of action.

Please don't represent me as a non-voter when my vote has been on Jo since my wall-o'-text summary of O's posts.

*non-cf voters

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

So a quick look at the remaining contestants:

--snip--
Voting for Jonah:
SFS - Trustworthy town - even if I don't necessarily trust his reads.  His digging into Jonah was interesting.

--snip--
I'd really like to here more from Pops - where are you buddy? 

--snip--

Emphasis mine
This is an interesting interpretation.  I made it very clear that I was digging into O, and found Jonah, benefiting from deflection/defense by (now-proven) mafia.

Pops is logged off cause he's scared of me.    MaybeheandIbefrenemies?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

There seems to be a lot of "I don't know, this is good, that is good, we're not at L-1 yet so I'm not interested, etc."

I take the following action for these reasons:
1) I agree with Robz on the notion that analyzing voting patterns is a good source of data.
2) I forgot that Jo will never be lynched (in fact, I'm about to vote with him, which is really, REALLY weird).
3) Frisk feels weirder and weirder by the post.
4) I want to see who jumps off (or on this wagon).

UNVOTE
VOTE: Frisk

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

This I believe is L-1 (4 votes), in case anyone is unsure of my intention of knowledge of the game state.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

* or knowledge - fixed it

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-4

Captain_Frisk (4): Axxle, popsofctown, jotheonah, SwitchedFromStarcraft

Not voting {5}: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Tables

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

+1 for Volt being so ON IT.

[Dsell]

There must be something in the genetic code of the jo/glooble family that compels them to be on every. single. bandwagon. out there. But I digress.

SFS, I'm confused by your vote. By putting C_F at L-1, you are clearly saying that you are ok with him being lynched, as anyone could come along at any time and hammer. But you don't sound altogether convinced that he's mafia. Or did you just not repeat the whole case against him? Are you trying to prove a point about jo being mafia and apparently unlynchable?

I want to hear from pops. He is *still* one of our most experienced players and maybe he just likes to hold back until we're closer to the end-game, I don't know.

Analyzing this bandwagon on C_F has been exceedingly vexing and filled with WIFOM for me. First of all, we don't know how many mafia there are, so he may be the only one left, and the town has just found him out. If he's town, I could see the mafia having joined this bandwagon already (or piggybacking on Galz to "start" it today) or staying off altogether and letting the town blow up. If he's mafia and has partners, well it's getting to a stage where it's awfully risk/reward to bus their partners, but I tend to think they would. It's not impossible to me that they could even lead the charge against their partner to win major town points in the end game. So, to some extent, it feels like it's going to be hard to learn anything until we get actual information from the flip and night roles. There's just so many possibilities in the last paragraph and probably even more I haven't thought of.

We need to hear from Glooble. He has been mostly absent from day 3, in fact the only thing I actually remember him saying made red flags go up for me. He's been a little cleared through some of his actions but he's been a total lurker today, even if he has had a crazy schedule for part of the time. The twinclaim is really the most notable thing from him this whole game, and it impacted the town by buying more time for jo (not sure yet if that's a good or a bad thing) but his confidence on jo being town and then O being mafia irk me.

Obviously I'm not hammering C_F tonight. I think that is the likely/inevitable end to this day and I kind of expect it to be the right decision, but there is information still to be had and there's some more time in the day. No need for a quick lynch.

[Captain_Frisk]

SFS: I was feeling so much better about you.

I would be more angry about this if we were near losing.  Mislynch me, worst case lose another 2 town, and you are sitting with 3-6 town, 1-3 mafia, and 0-1 serial killers. 

3-3-1 isn't possible per volt.
4-2-1 is bad, but not game ending
4-3-0 is bad
5-2-0 is fine
5-1-1 is fine
6-1-0 would be an interesting social experiment.

Still - I know for a fact that dsell, pops and Jonah are more likely to be mafia than I am.  It's the only verifiable piece of info I have. 

Axxle, j, pops: barring the 3 mafia remaining solution, at least one of you guys are going to look scummy tomorrow if you proceed with this lynch.  Be better prepared than I was.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

UNVOTE

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

More in a moment.

[jotheonah]

Ugh. Frisk's last 3 posts have given me a town read, so he is making me start to second guess.  And I don't like that Axxle, my other top suspect is on his wagon. And if he DOES flip town AND you guys lynch me tomorrow, we really are in trouble. (unless SK/Vig manages to kill scum in the night)

Unvote while I try to get an idea of whether I could interest anyone in an Axxle wagon instead?

[jotheonah]

Um, For the record, wrote that before SFS's unvote.

Also, I love that SFS thinks I have a supernatural ability to avoid being lynched. But let's not put it to the test.

[jotheonah]

Also I feel like I'm the only one on this wagon who's posted anything that could be called a real case. Someone PLEASE correct me if I'm wrong.