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[popsofctown]

I'm pretty sure SFS happens to realize I'm town already, so that's moot. 

[Robz888]

Okay, we have Insomniac, Theorel, Galzria, and Grujah killed in the night. Unless there is some serious blocking going on--which is quite possible, but let's set it aside for now--there are 2 mafia kills. It absolutely makes sense to me that the mafia would kill Insomniac and Grujah. Insomniac was not an Axxle voter and wouldn't have been a natural Day 2 lynch target. Grujah was going to be largely cleared because of O's flip. The mafia want to kill people we presume to be innocent.

The other 2 make more sense to me as Vig kills than SK kills. Theorel was pretty scummy and had come off badly in some Day 1 arguments. Galzria was absolutely the right kill--he was dripping scum.

Perhaps I was too confident in saying there is no Serial Killer. But the pattern of kills suggest to me a Vig, and because we already know one of the was indeed, in all likelihood, due to a Vig... I still say that's the most reasonable explanation.

If there is a SK, I would have to conclude the SK is trying to kill like a Vigilante, and Grujah didn't use his kill at all. That could be.

Anyway, the discussion is distracting at this point, and it's not surprising at all that Frisk and Jo want that distraction.

[Axxle]

The SK isn't trying to kill as a Vig.  The SK is trying to kill as an SK.  The SK wants to hit Mafia inherently.

[popsofctown]

derp

[jotheonah]

Since you all might lynch me today, I didn't think it was very pro-town to hold back on pointing out the strongest tell I've seen all game.  I trust you all to look back on it when the time for witchhunting begins (in your opinions) if I'm not around to take it up myself.

Honestly, color me unconvinced on the whole "We shouldn't be looking for a serial killer thing." A lot of big assumptions being made, including:
(A) The SK should be hunting mafia at night
(B) The SK, in fact, is hunting mafia at night
(C) The SK is going to magically be successful at hunting mafia, despite having failed to do so two nights already.

Meanwhile, if we do have an SK, we have two scum factions manipulating the town for their own purposes and we continue to lose 2 town a night.  Lynching mafia today will not stop us from losing two town in the night. Lynching SK will.  So don't tell me it's unarguably better to be hunting for the mafia. I don't buy it. If someone's antitown and has NK powers, I want them dead. I'm not fussing about the semantics.

[Captain_Frisk]

Anyway, the discussion is distracting at this point, and it's not surprising at all that Frisk and Jo want that distraction.

The discussion is a distraction that you started with what I considered to bad reasoning - so I called it out.

However - agreed with everyone that we should be hunting mafia - not SK - at least until at least 1 more mafia goes down.  We do have confirmed mafia in the game (there is at least 1 remaining), and we don't even know if there is SK.

-- back on target --

So there are 4 of us (myself, DSell, Jonah, and Pops) of which we expect at least 1 to be mafia.  3 of us false lynched Axxle1. 

RobZ has cleared pops for some reason I don't understand.

J is J - Pops thinks he's town - Glooble thinks he's town.

I am not mafia - nobody suspected me in the Tables hunt - and then I failed to vote for O and now I look scummy as hell.

DSell - nobody suspects him as far as I know.

Does that summarize our likely suspects?

[popsofctown]

  Lynching mafia today will not stop us from losing two town a townie and a mafia in the night. Lynching SK will. 

ftfy

In seriousness, you're not thinking clearly, and are only fixating on the worst case scenario.  At the worst, whether SK hits town or scum at night is random.  Because there are more townies than scums, random deaths happen to help the town.  That's what a lynch really is, it's a random death somewhat improved by the power of scumhunting, but never based on any strong, truly solid information.  Town's lynch only a little bit better than random chances but still win about half the games they play.
The lynch is a kill that hits mafia or town.  The SK kill is a kill that hits mafia or town.  The mafia kill is a kill that only hits town, because they know who their partners are.  That is what's more important to eliminate. 

I promise myself to give up on explaining this after this because some things just refuse to be conveyed.

[Robz888]

So there are 4 of us (myself, DSell, Jonah, and Pops) of which we expect at least 1 to be mafia.  3 of us false lynched Axxle1. 

RobZ has cleared pops for some reason I don't understand.

J is J - Pops thinks he's town - Glooble thinks he's town.

I am not mafia - nobody suspected me in the Tables hunt - and then I failed to vote for O and now I look scummy as hell.

DSell - nobody suspects him as far as I know.

Does that summarize our likely suspects?

Uh, it's Jo or Frisk. Maybe Dsell. Not Pops. He went after O too hard.

[Dsell]

Because there are more townies than scums, random deaths happen to help the town.

Wut?

[Robz888]

Because there are more townies than scums, random deaths happen to help the town.

Wut?

Doesn't matter. Forget about that.

Dsell, while your here: Please rank the following people from scummy to not: Pops, Jo, Frisk, Axxle, Glooble. Thank you.

[Captain_Frisk]

Uh, it's Jo or Frisk. Maybe Dsell. Not Pops. He went after O too hard.

But didn't vote for him.

[Robz888]

Frisk, will you also fulfill the request I made to Dsell?

[Dsell]

@SFS I did go back and look into C_F but quickly ran into that SK idea and ran with it for a while. That said, it's just an idea and there's no way to know for sure yet that we have a SK and there's no way to know for sure yet who that SK would be. And I agree that lynching mafia is much more important than lynching SK at this point. I just wanted to get the idea out there, see how people would react, and I think it's fine to put it on the shelf somewhat for now.

Two things that have stuck out to me, looking back:

C_F has been on the wrong end of the Axxle1, Grujah, and O bandwagons. He hopped off Grujah quick when he was near being lynched, which is probably to his credit, but this is still good information. It seems like it's either "duh we should probably kill him now" or he is being a little obvious if he's mafia. I don't understand his major stubbornness with not hammering O, seems like a mafioso would have nothing to lose by doing that. Then again, doesn't the mafia want to do the things that seem least likely for the mafia to do? WIFOM.

Has anyone else noticed how jo is a COMPLETELY different person D3? A much more helpful person and one who is a bit lower on my suspicions list, but...he's had a complete playstyle overhaul and it's weirding me out.

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk, will you also fulfill the request I made to Dsell?

I will - and I'll even give you reasons - even if that helps people get townreads / avoid scumreads from me in the future.

Jo - Bad SK logic, double bad voting
Pops - Double bad voting - intentionally unhelpful
DSell - Not enough info for a read - as we're getting later in the game - this makes me suspicious in a way that can't be argued for (similar to O)
Glooble - Dislike his auto wagon voting approach, but have a really hard time believing that twinclaim was a mafia gambit.
Me

If I couldn't read my own role PM - i'd put myself up with Jo and Pops.

[Robz888]

Jo, will you do so as well?

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk, will you also fulfill the request I made to Dsell?

I will - and I'll even give you reasons - even if that helps people get townreads / avoid scumreads from me in the future.

Jo - Bad SK logic, double bad voting
Pops - Double bad voting - intentionally unhelpful
DSell - Not enough info for a read - as we're getting later in the game - this makes me suspicious in a way that can't be argued for (similar to O)
Glooble - Dislike his auto wagon voting approach, but have a really hard time believing that twinclaim was a mafia gambit.
Me

If I couldn't read my own role PM - i'd put myself up with Jo and Pops.

Oh - missed Axxle - probably in the DSell / Glooble range.  Slightly above where I'd put you.

[Dsell]

@Robz, I'll make it but I'm not putting a lot of stock until I can go back and read through D2 some more with the added knowledge of Grujah, O, and Galz. My paradigm really shifted when Galz flipped town.

Most suspicious to least: C_F, Jo, Gloob, Axxle, Pops.


Jo and Gloob are close and maybe should be swapped, but for different reasons.

Jo's been playing a scummy game this whole time but now he's a new man...and it's weird.

When I was reading through D2 after coming back from vacation, there was one point where I was just so sure that Glooble was mafia, he seemed super scummy, but then by the end of the reading he was seeming more town again. Now that Galz is confirmed town I'm not sure where that puts him exactly.

And Axxle is also kind of a wildcard because I haven't gotten a scummy read from him but it seems like he's done some weird things and he's in the middle of EVERYBODY'S list. (PPE: including C_F's)

So, wow, this is a super primitive list. I just really need to reread D2 more to get my head together. Which is also why I don't feel like I can rush into a C_F vote yet (although if I had to place one that's where it would be).

Robz, did I miss yours? Could you post one as well?

[Robz888]

Robz, did I miss yours? Could you post one as well?

I want to see Jo's first. Then yes.

[Robz888]

Axxle, i would like to see your list too, if you are around.

[Captain_Frisk]

Robz, did I miss yours? Could you post one as well?

He didn't make one.  He's also anchoring (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring) the discussion by choosing who's on the list.  He could have just as easily said "rank everyone" - and then looked at the 4 or 5 he's interested in. 

To be fair - the people he's kept off the list make sense:
DSell - the original question was directed @ DSell - his ranking is implied.
RobZ - RobZ knows his own alignment - doesn't care whether or not DSell thinks he's scummy
Tables & SFS - if you don't know why they are down here you need to read old posts.

[jotheonah]

@Dsell I'm much more helpful in smaller towns. Also, the O lynch ... I finally feel like I'm standing on some kind of solid ground.

@Robz The assignment is ... list everybody I suspect and why?

[Robz888]

Robz, did I miss yours? Could you post one as well?

He didn't make one.  He's also anchoring (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring) the discussion by choosing who's on the list.  He could have just as easily said "rank everyone" - and then looked at the 4 or 5 he's interested in. 

To be fair - the people he's kept off the list make sense:
DSell - the original question was directed @ DSell - his ranking is implied.
RobZ - RobZ knows his own alignment - doesn't care whether or not DSell thinks he's scummy
Tables & SFS - if you don't know why they are down here you need to read old posts.

Uh, I want Dsell's list. i asked for it. I would ask Glooble and Pops, too. But I don't think Glooble is around right now, and I don't think I am likely to get an answer from Pops. I don't need lists from Tables or SFS, no.

[Dsell]

DSell - Not enough info for a read - as we're getting later in the game - this makes me suspicious in a way that can't be argued for (similar to O)

You've said this soooo many times now so I'll say this once more. I WAS ON VACATION FOR MOST OF DAY 2. NOT LURKING, ON VACATION.

I realize that this can lead to there not being that much info on me but there's not much I can do. I've been really active when I've been here and I've contributed a lot, particularly day 1 and now 3.

[Robz888]

@Dsell I'm much more helpful in smaller towns. Also, the O lynch ... I finally feel like I'm standing on some kind of solid ground.

@Robz The assignment is ... list everybody I suspect and why?

You can leave off SFS and Tables, and me. Or include me if you really want. Doesn't matter, I'll discount that either way. Don't need to be long explanations.

[Captain_Frisk]

DSell - Not enough info for a read - as we're getting later in the game - this makes me suspicious in a way that can't be argued for (similar to O)

You've said this soooo many times now so I'll say this once more. I WAS ON VACATION FOR MOST OF DAY 2. NOT LURKING, ON VACATION.

I realize that this can lead to there not being that much info on me but there's not much I can do. I've been really active when I've been here and I've contributed a lot, particularly day 1 and now 3.

Hey man - I didn't put you over Pops and Jo - all I'm saying is that I don't have a read on you.  I didn't even accuse you of lurking in this post.