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[Tables]

Most Likely Mafia to Least Likely:
Popofctown
Axxle
---
Glooble
Grujah
Jotheonah
Tables
---
Dsell
C.F.
O
SFS
Robz
Galzria

I'd be shocked if anything in that list order surprised anyone.

There's one very shocking thing in that list. One person is in your second bracket - in your 6 most suspicious people, that AFAIK you've never given any reasons you're suspicious of, and has been cleared by a cop claim you believe to be town. To put me that high, you'd have to think it reasonably likely I'm either the SK or the Godfather. Which means... why aren't you providing any evidence for your suspicion?

And to me, Joth still reads desperate scum, not stupid townie. His unique position makes it hard to compare him to other people, and he's smart, so I kinda feel like his actions are somewhat calculated. It's so hard to tell though. I guess one question is, do we get much from lynching him? If he flips town, what? If he flips scum, what?

[Robz888]

Most Likely Mafia to Least Likely:
Popofctown
Axxle
---
Glooble
Grujah
Jotheonah
Tables
---
Dsell
C.F.
O
SFS
Robz
Galzria

I'd be shocked if anything in that list order surprised anyone.

There's one very shocking thing in that list. One person is in your second bracket - in your 6 most suspicious people, that AFAIK you've never given any reasons you're suspicious of, and has been cleared by a cop claim you believe to be town. To put me that high, you'd have to think it reasonably likely I'm either the SK or the Godfather. Which means... why aren't you providing any evidence for your suspicion?

And to me, Joth still reads desperate scum, not stupid townie. His unique position makes it hard to compare him to other people, and he's smart, so I kinda feel like his actions are somewhat calculated. It's so hard to tell though. I guess one question is, do we get much from lynching him? If he flips town, what? If he flips scum, what?

Emphasis mine. I agree with this analysis. I have always agreed with it. Tables, have you voted for Jo yet? Please do so. Let's get on with this.

I also agree with you that Galzria putting you in the mid=suspicion group is a mistake. I think that you and SFS are almost certainly both in the clear. Galz may have just forgotten that.

[Galzria]

Ah, to be fair, I had forgotten about SFS OSC investigating Tables. Still, he's about in the right place in my list. Not high enough to waste energy building a case around, but nit clear either. There are a number of things that could read false-positive on an investigation, and there just hasn't been enough from Tables himself to clear his name with me. He might belong in the bottom subset, but still at the top of that list.

[Robz888]

I suspect O and Frisk more than Tables, though admittedly not very much.

Also, I don't suspect Axxle the way everybody else does. We (not me, though) already mislynched him once. That buys my sympathy.

[Robz888]

But, time to kill Jo. Come on guys.

[Galzria]

I suspect O and Frisk more than Tables, though admittedly not very much.

Also, I don't suspect Axxle the way everybody else does. We (not me, though) already mislynched him once. That buys my sympathy.

Sympathy is a losing tactic in a Mafia game.

[popsofctown]

I suspect O and Frisk more than Tables, though admittedly not very much.

Also, I don't suspect Axxle the way everybody else does. We (not me, though) already mislynched him once. That buys my sympathy.

Sympathy is a losing tactic in a Mafia game.

[Robz888]

I suspect O and Frisk more than Tables, though admittedly not very much.

Also, I don't suspect Axxle the way everybody else does. We (not me, though) already mislynched him once. That buys my sympathy.

Sympathy is a losing tactic in a Mafia game.

Fine, but all things being equal, we're usually wrong. I'd rather not have the town be wrong twice back to back about the same person.

[popsofctown]

Dignity is a losing tactic in a mafia game.

[Galzria]

Dignity is a losing tactic in a mafia game.

[Captain_Frisk]

But, time to kill Jo. Come on guys.

Whats with the rush?  We should have our prod results tonight, which will (potentially) get us 2 new players, and DSell comes back tomorrow night?

[Robz888]

But, time to kill Jo. Come on guys.

Whats with the rush?  We should have our prod results tonight, which will (potentially) get us 2 new players, and DSell comes back tomorrow night?

Boredom. I forgot about Dsell, and I'll be really glad to have him back. AS for the other two, I am loathe to get two new replacements. They are going to read 70 new pages? And then we have to interpret them pre-replacement and post-replacement? Ugh.

[jotheonah]

My most plausible mafia team is pops, Grujah, Green Opal/Axxle2.

In this scenario, pops tells the two newbies "Stay out of the way, I'mma take charge of the town and then we'll control their votes." (Not saying he's succeeded at this, but there's evidence of him trying to assert himself as an authority and steering the votes.)

Then Axxle replaces in and, as a non-newb, feels more comfortable talking and pops say "fine, I trust you not to give us away."

Grujah has disappeared lately, but before he disappeared he always seemed to pop in to push a wagon along with a vote.

I like this idea because it's the only thing that adequately explains the long periods of silence, the feeling that no wagon has enough push on it to be mafia-driven, the lack of much scummy play on anyone's part. Not so much this exact pairing as the notion that our mafia is 2/3rds lurkers, which would explain why it feels so damn invisible.

I need to look through the long backlog though and see if I can find any hard evidence of this. I thought I'd just throw it out and see if it strikes anyone else as plausible.

PPE: Actually, given that our Doldrums coincide somewhat with Dsell's absence, could that be evidence that he's on the scum team? I keep forgetting about him, which is never a good sign IMO.

[Captain_Frisk]

But, time to kill Jo. Come on guys.

Whats with the rush?  We should have our prod results tonight, which will (potentially) get us 2 new players, and DSell comes back tomorrow night?

Boredom. I forgot about Dsell, and I'll be really glad to have him back. AS for the other two, I am loathe to get two new replacements. They are going to read 70 new pages? And then we have to interpret them pre-replacement and post-replacement? Ugh.

I checked this AM.  Grujah has been lurking.  SFS has literally not logged in.

[jotheonah]

Don't jump on me, please. I'm just throwing out an idea I've been bouncing around for a while because it seems like we need more to talk about.

[popsofctown]

Jo do you have a primal urge to change my mind about you?

[Captain_Frisk]

Jo do you have a primal urge to change my mind about you?

The only thing that is preventing me from voting for him is thinking "If I was Mafia, how angry would I be if J was my mafia cohort?"

[jotheonah]

Actually, the whole theory makes infinitely more sense with Galz in place of pops, looking back.

[jotheonah]

But I don't see Galz the person telling his teammates not to play the game. For some reason I can imagine pops doing that.

[popsofctown]

perhaps they managed that part on their own?

[Axxle]

perhaps they managed that part on their own?

Ouch pops, just ouch.

J's post has actually reminded me that I probably should be looking for his scummates, IIRC Grujah avoided the J bandwagon on Day 1 (while hopping on many more while he was still here), and J would either have to be a very good scum player to have fooled his twin, or be cohorts with him, so Glooble would be my second bet as a teammate.

[jotheonah]

meh, it's a dumb theory.

But Axxle. to add to his crimes: Opportunistic not-super-well explained vote on Galzria after his "gambit" post.

also am i the only player under 30 on iso

I hit 30 again? Yay!

Vote: Galz

Gunning for SK is much more of a mafia thing than a town thing, like pops said.  But more than that, I get the feeling that you just want to discredit Robz.  You want to be the only leader in the town.  Robz has always been strong-headed and confident, and yet that's the majority of what you picked at in his post.  I find that thinking disingenuous.

That's an odd reason, as there has never been strife between us over something like that, and I would much rather have him with me than against me.

But that's fine.

In that quote, Galzria points out that the brief stated reason for his vote doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

But he took it off when CF voted. But then he put it back on. And then, even though he expressed contempt for Galzria's gambit, he gave up on that attack and instead started pursuing me. He wants to be on a wagon that will work. He seems to get aggravated the longer we go without a lynch. I don't see my vote changing again.

OF COURSE, that means Galz can't be the scum mastermind either. Dangit.

[Captain_Frisk]

perhaps they managed that part on their own?

Even after Galz calls you out for not quoting, you continue to do it?

[popsofctown]

it's the preceding post.  It shouldn't be necessary.

[Galzria]

it's the preceding post.  It shouldn't be necessary.

It shouldn't be necessary now. But 40 pages from now? It's incredibly, and by your defense intentionally, unhelpful.