At least overnight posting was a little more reasonable than afternoon posting.
So, I didn't notice the second article from Axxle about the RVS. I read the first article (on arguments), and saw it allude to future articles, but I didn't see where that future article was (if it was even from the same person). It would be nice to have a feel for what someone who wanted to follow those articles would do, but regardless I'll make some comments based on this thread.
It seems to me from a purely practical perspective that if bandwagons are helpful to the town, it's because they can ferret out mafia. How would they do this?
1: Mafia want to increase suspicion of non-mafia. This means that they will trumpet the bad reasoning inherent to a bandwagon.
2: Mafia want to be in the middle of the pack of voters, so as to not stand out (presumably). A bandwagon gives them opportunity to do that.
So, if we stop a bandwagon prematurely (say at 5 or 6 people) it stands to reason that 1-2 of those people is likely mafia (largely dependent on how many Mafia we have in the game). For future reference (in order to stop excessive caveats) I'm going to assume we have 3 mafia for the course of day 1. If we have more we have more power roles, better information probable day 2, if we have fewer, we have less power roles, and we're probably gonna be killing a lot of town. Anyways, if we have 1 mafia in 5 players, it's actually no better probability of hitting one of 3 mafia in 15 players. However, for any townies on the bandwagon, you've got 1 in 4 if it's true that the mafia are in the bandwagon. (assuming uniform random choice, which you might be able to improve upon with your 'reads').
Alright, so that's the theoretical position I'm starting from, you may disagree that's fine...So, I'm going to look at the 5 people who voted for Pops before the bandwagon petered out and Galz jumped ship. (I think these are in order of voting, would appreciate correction if I'm wrong)
1. Insomniac: Pops voted for him, he voted back. Pops thinks he was being overly defensive (Mafia tell, Pops says). He was arguably even more defensive then, by returning the vote after supposedly getting info out of...( SFS was it?) Suspicion: Medium
2. O: he plays a random, erratic game. He voted for Pops early, but he's also in second position, the most suspicious of positions. Suspicion: lower than Insomniac.
3. Galzria: He pushed the pressure trying to get an answer, did not feel convinced a bit later, and then finally jumped ship, meaning to me that either he's town, or getting out while the getting's good. Suspicion: low
4. Grujah: I'll be honest, I get Grujah and DSell mixed up. Their avatars look similar to me for whatever reason. I've got no decent read on Grujah, I think he's new? Maybe he's bandwagoning because of that. He claims to be impressionable, which is bad for town (IMO). So, Grujah, if you're Town - be Skeptical. Don't be persuaded by others' arguments, make your own. Mafia want to persuade you, town want information. Suspicion: Medium (a little above Insomniac)
5. Axxle: He votes and unvotes and revotes. I think it's clear that Pops cares little for the pressure he's under. He's also one of the only 2 people to really interact with me since I started posting, and he was suspicious then unsuspicious. So, he's hedging, or changing his mind a lot, but this also suggests he's playing somewhat transparently. If he is mafia, I think he's the second mafia to vote for Pops. So, like the rollercoaster of his own play so are my feelings about him. Suspicion: Highest of the 5, though not far above Grujah.
Note: everyone should keep in mind that we might have a witch, I use "Mafia", but could replace with "anti-town". In fact, I find it much more likely that mafia + witch have voted for Pops, then that both Mafia have.
So, to clarify suspicion order (individually) is: Axxle, Grujah, Insomniac, O, Galzria. If Axxle's mafia, I think one of the other 4 is, which increases the odds on the other 4. Unfortunately it increases it most for O and Insomniac, if they're mafia (no-change if it's mafia+witch). I guess that leaves Axxle on top, so that's where I'll vote, until further notice.
Vote: Axxle
Oh, one more thing, then I'll be quiet for a while again (since I have to y'know...work).
The analysis about numerics in whether we're better off lynching no-lynching is thrown completely off by existence of Militia and Witch (and Woodcutter). If we lynch with one night-kill we maintain odd numbers which is good. If we lynch with 2 night-kills we go into even number land which is bad (assuming mafia isn't hit). OTOH: Mafia wants to kill Witch (and Witch mafia), so that's not quite as bad. I just wanted to throw that out there, since extra night-kills totally throw off the better to lynch or not calculations. I still think lynching day-1 is preferable because it gives us more information. I also think that we should push close to a couple lynches before the end of the day ideally. So, in my view any hammer on an early wagon is a very scummy move.