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[Axxle]

Obviously "respect" on this forum is little more than a codeword of "fear". The most feared people are the most likely to be mafia (and an admin mafia... dear god, who could possibly defeat that?)

So I only really see two possible outcomes:

1) Me and goober aren't mafia
2) You guys upvote this comment enough that I become 3rd or so in respect, and then I become mafia   



Also, @Axxle: It's statistically better for the village to lynch every night, and as we have no real information (except that Theory is obviously mafia), we may as well joke around. ("we" of course assuming you aren't Mafia.)

But if at least we use the semblance of reason, we might be able to go back in the thread and see who was accusing who and that might be the beginning of clues after the first lynch and kill

Except that never happens.


theory 1 9
Ozle 2
Thisisnotasmile 3
ftl 4
Robz888 5 0
Axxle 6
goober 7
Davio 8

I'll probably vote for whoever has the digit that this posts timestamp's second counter lands on.

Is the timestamp what you get when you quote the post? Then didn't you just set up TINAS for being voted seemingly randomly? 

Oh wait... If it's second from the right then I guess it's random.

I should clarify: There are people who use a semblance of reason with their voting picks for the first round, Axxle.

Mafia

hmm... errr.... well... I think I'm getting where you're coming from. I'm not really a guy to do anything for no reason.

Ninja'd Edit:

Nah, not being defensive anymore. I'm happy to be lynched. I'm fine being randomly lynched as long as there is no REAL info going around because it means I can sit back and laugh at my team (read: town) for bringing it upon themselves for the rest of the game. And hey, chances are we are going to lynch one of our own, so may as well get rid of someone who doesn't have a power role. It could be worse, right?

Exactly!  Unvote

I'm not necessarily in favor of killing the non-talkers, but if they don't start talking we should kill them.

I am very much in favor of killing non-talkers.  If we take this policy it will make everyone talk more and give a lot more information for us.

[Ozle]

Nah, not being defensive anymore. I'm happy to be lynched. I'm fine being randomly lynched as long as there is no REAL info going around because it means I can sit back and laugh at my team (read: town) for bringing it upon themselves for the rest of the game. And hey, chances are we are going to lynch one of our own, so may as well get rid of someone who doesn't have a power role. It could be worse, right?

Everything you say is suspicious to me.

But as promised! Here is the number of posts people have made since Pops restarted the game.

Robz888 -- 10
Theory -- 3
TINAS -- 10
Ozle -- 10
Davio -- 2
Ftl -- 2
Axxle -- 3
Goober -- 1
O -- 7

I'm not necessarily in favor of killing the non-talkers, but if they don't start talking we should kill them.

Umm...looking at that list I am definately in favour of killing the non-talkers!

[popsofctown]

In the Gardens there is a pond.  You can skip coins across it with a good throw, but of course, the coppers skip farthest.

Vote Count
Still nothing


Note: Do not edit posts, no exceptions.  If you need to add information to a previous post, double post.

[Robz888]

Nah, not being defensive anymore. I'm happy to be lynched. I'm fine being randomly lynched as long as there is no REAL info going around because it means I can sit back and laugh at my team (read: town) for bringing it upon themselves for the rest of the game. And hey, chances are we are going to lynch one of our own, so may as well get rid of someone who doesn't have a power role. It could be worse, right?

Woah. Hey. That's not something you should tell us, that you don't have a power role! Here is why:

Power role townies are more important to keep alive for the townies. Keeping them alive gives us a better chance of winning. We NEVER want to execute them. And in fact, if you are cop or something, and you are about to be lynched by the town, you should tell us and--assuming that your claim is credible--we should unvote you. This is a sucky situation, because obviously we don't want the mafia to know about you. But killing you ourselves is even worse.

By the same token, telling us that you do not have a power role helps the mafia deduce who does have the power roles, so it's not so good for us. It really isn't good for you either, because we would rather accidentally lynch a townie than accidentally lynch a power role townie.

[popsofctown]

Just to clarify, does this day end early if everybody has voted a majority, so if 5 of us all of a sudden go for the same person in the next 5 minutes, then that auto ends the day? in which case I can see advantages for both voting early and late for either side!

And then once its night we cant talk to each other until the day phase right?

Yes, an early lynch ends the day.  You can discuss until the mod gets to to the thread to announce the lynch, then you'll be silent through a 48 hour night. 

[Axxle]

Note: Do not edit posts, no exceptions.  If you need to add information to a previous post, double post.

To clarify I didn't actually edit, I changed the post a little after seeing someone posted between when I started making the post and I was about to post it.

Nah, not being defensive anymore. I'm happy to be lynched. I'm fine being randomly lynched as long as there is no REAL info going around because it means I can sit back and laugh at my team (read: town) for bringing it upon themselves for the rest of the game. And hey, chances are we are going to lynch one of our own, so may as well get rid of someone who doesn't have a power role. It could be worse, right?

Woah. Hey. That's not something you should tell us, that you don't have a power role! Here is why:

Power role townies are more important to keep alive for the townies. Keeping them alive gives us a better chance of winning. We NEVER want to execute them. And in fact, if you are cop or something, and you are about to be lynched by the town, you should tell us and--assuming that your claim is credible--we should unvote you. This is a sucky situation, because obviously we don't want the mafia to know about you. But killing you ourselves is even worse.

By the same token, telling us that you do not have a power role helps the mafia deduce who does have the power roles, so it's not so good for us. It really isn't good for you either, because we would rather accidentally lynch a townie than accidentally lynch a power role townie.

Oh! Missed this.  Yeah, that wasn't a great move on your part TINAS.  If you knew what Robz888 is saying when you made the comment that probably means you're mafia, but if you didn't know then that means the mafia just gained a slight edge. (actually, it might be a good decision if you actually do have a power role)

[theory]

Vote: TINAS

[Ozle]

It does seem a rather suspicious post on your part This, especially as you seem a bit of a pro at this, and even if your lying and not a Mafioso (which I believe is highly likely) then a non-powered townie is bit better than a power townie.

Vote: Thisisnotasmile

[ftl]

Whoa! I didn't realize I had posted so little. But I guess a lot of discussion went down after I left for the night.

Current suspicions:
1) TINAS, for acting all shifty. First being wishy-washy about being mafia, then for talking about not being a power role and for acquiescing to his lynching.
2) O, for picking randomly. That only helps the Mafia. Take a stand! I mean, I know we have nothing to go on, but try to make something to go on by accusing someone. A random accusation like that doesn't even merit a substantive response. Oh no, you accused me because the random number generator landed on 4! Is anybody going to find that a convincing reason to go along with you?
3) Goober, for only having one post!

Vote: Goober

at least to make him respond. I might join on the TINAS bandwagon in a bit, but not yet.

[Robz888]

Okay, here is my analysis of TINAS, which seems to be where the wind is blowing:

He was one of the people I semi-jokingly accused. Axxle and ftl jumped on it a bit. To me, his reaction seemed very defensive. Of course, anyone can get defensive when they are accused. But mafia tend to be more incredulously defensive. So without much to go on anyway, that was basically enough for me to think TINAS is the prime suspect.

His declaration that he has no power role was... problematic. It's either a townie blunder, or a move by a mafia who thinks he needs to clear himself. We want to kill mafia, but keeping alive townie blunderers isn't our highest priority.

But to be fair to TINAS... he very well may not be mafia. You could see his actions as just a normal townie who sort of said some semi-wrong things, and it spiraled out of control. What does he do? He gets a little desperate.

Theory, you seemed confident enough about TINAS to cast that first vote. May I ask why? Would also really like to hear from the quiet people, because I don't want to overlook them. We can't incentivize the mafia to be quiet! We need them to pipe up and make mistakes.

[Thisisnotasmile]

Maybe I made a blunder. Then again, maybe I didn't?

[theory]

I think we are too heavily overthinking this.  The first lynch is mostly random and if we're gonna lynch someone and no one is suspiciously quiet, I will go with the one that is suspiciously loud.

[Thisisnotasmile]

Be my guest.

[ftl]

The first lynch is mostly random and if we're gonna lynch someone and no one is suspiciously quiet, I will go with the one that is suspiciously loud.

Well, at the moment we do have goober being quiet, with only one post to his name; it was the third post since the new roles, in which he semi-jokingly accused the previous two posters, myself and Robz.

But it's not too suspiciously quiet, it's been less than a day since his last post.

I think we are too heavily overthinking this.

Definitely. But that's ok.

[Robz888]

Here's something else I was thinking. Let's say TINAS is mafia. I am about 30% confident of that (and like 0% confident for anyone else). Who would the other mafia be? So I looked at who denounced or voted against him. If TINAS is a dead man, his fellow mafia will of course vote to kill him, so as not to cast suspicion. But I seriously doubt that a mafia would be an initiator against a mafia or cast an early vote against him, especially in the first round. It could happen, but it would be a hugely advanced and complicated move. So if TINAS is mafia, here are the people who probably aren't:

theory, axxle, ozle, robz888

Ftl voiced suspicion of TINAS but also made a move against Goober, which actually reads to me like a mafia hedging his bets by agreeing with the consensus against his partner but also trying to direct to someone else. But he did make an early declaration against TINAS. So he's PROBABLY not mafia, though he if he is, he is doing so smartly.

Davio defended TINAS slightly, and has since been silent. So yeah.

Whoever the cop is (I acknowledge that this could be me), if you do suspect TINAS I think Davio, Goober, and O are logical targets for investigation. Ftl is in the middle for him. If you think the antiTINAS consensus is b.s., you should probably investigate me or axxle.

Okay, that's it for my over-analysis. I have to put down my pitchfork and do some real-life work. At this point I would vote for TINAS, but I am leaving open the door for new info.

[Thisisnotasmile]

Not that it really matters because I am not mafia, but in this game's previous life (i.e. before the role shuffle), Davio was my mafia partner. You suspecting us two again just made me chuckle a bit inside.

I have no information on Davio for this game, however.

[Ozle]

Overthinking things? This is the dominion forum, everything ever posted here gets overanalysed to death!

[Axxle]

I would very much like to see what Davio and Goober think about what's happened so far.

I don't like that Robz is telling the cop what to do, it falls much too close to a Wine in Front of Me argument.  The rest of his analysis is more or less agreeable though, although I'm only about 5% sure TINAS is mafia.

Yes theory, we probably are overthinking it, but I'd rather overthink it than underthink it

I think we're getting all the reaction we can out of TINAS with the current votes against him.  I'm also going to Vote: Goober, where'd you go dude? You haven't had a large presence in the forums so we're even more in the dark about your playstyle/forum behavior.

[Davio]

Davio defended TINAS slightly, and has since been silent. So yeah.

I defended Thisisnotasmile slightly, because I thought it was too early to draw any serious conclusions, but I guess that's always the case on the first day. My silence was due to Game of Thrones 2x7. I always watch it when my wife is doing her pregnancy yoga on Monday night. In a few weeks it's partner evening, oh joy.

I also don't randomly post when I have nothing to post.

My short analysis:

Thisisnotasmile seems like a likely candidate, because he's been zigging and zagging, but this can be just his natural excitement. And at this point you can't really tell if someone is bluffing, double bluffing or triple bluffing. Does he or doesn't he have a power role? If he doesn't, well, why did he say so? If he does, why did he bring it up in the first place?

As far as the others go: Goober has been silent, but he may have had some other real life activities like I had. Seriously, I don't check this forum every minute, just every hour. Silence is always a sure way to get yourself lynched though.

Theory, on the other hand, has been very short and firm in his posts. His comment about the first lynch being random bugged me. Instead of trying to actively find the mafiosi he points the finger at Thisisnotasmile, who a lot of you are already suspecting. Going with the group seems like a good idea if you don't want to stick out.

I'm heavily suspecting Theory at this point and need some heavy arguing to change my vote.


As for Thisisnotasmile's comment about us being mafia originally: We were indeed going to be Mafia before the reshuffle and I was excited and scared at the same time when I got the PM. And when I went to check it again, I got a new PM saying I was a townie. I stared at my screen with confusion for about 5 mins. Wait, what? I'm OK with it though, at least I get to be active in the beginning!

[Ozle]

Damnit, Davio is the only one I don't suspect at this moment in time! Couldn't you post something a bit suspicious at least!

I'm still thinking TINAS, summed up by Robz here

His declaration that he has no power role was... problematic. It's either a townie blunder, or a move by a mafia who thinks he needs to clear himself. We want to kill mafia, but keeping alive townie blunderers isn't our highest priority.

and his nonchelance at being lynched seems a bit too convienient.

So either he is a mafia protesting too much, or his is a powerless townie. But I am sure he has played before, and revealing he is a powerless townie seems a bit of a silly move for a pro, which only leaves mafia, or lying about being a power townie (perhaps to save himself form the real mafia? Is that a done thing). Either that or he has changed his mind and doesn't mind not playing?

Either that or I have been swayed by Axxles original vote, Theorys quick votes and Robz summing up in which case I may feel a bit foolish later on.

[popsofctown]

The Duchess told everyone that pops left the house to her, and everything else should be divided among his friends.  It will take a while to divide up his Warehouses though..

Vote Count
(2) Thisisnotasmile - theory, Ozle
(2) goober - Axxle, ftl

[Thisisnotasmile]

I don't mind being lynched at this point in the game because then I don't feel like a traitor for then supporting the other team. If I'd actually had a chance at helping my team before I was killed I would feel much worse about doing so.

[Thisisnotasmile]

And I demand a recount on that vote.

[popsofctown]

I checked the page again, I don't see any error, unless the previous null votecount was also in error.

[Thisisnotasmile]

Okay, well I see two votes for Goober.