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[MiX]

"MiX finally join and makes joth into a wagon; late enough that it is very unlikely to succeed. T-5 hours."

This is true in hindsight but not when I voted. T-5 hours is a reasonable time.

EBWOP

[WestCoastDidds]

Vote: Joth

Why’s that?

Mainly because I preferred Joth yesterday. And as nothing has changed I still prefer him today.
Well tbf I preferred EFHW, but I am off of that for now. I was being stupid.

We should of had an exile yesterday, the fact that we did not just kind of makes me feel like one of them has to be skum.

I could look at it the other way and say "who would of looked hella fishy for moving their vote in the last hour" under the assumption that it was a TVT wagon... However, day one end of day anyone can do anything and it will like literally never be skum read universally as long as the exile goes off.

So I think, because there was no exile... combined with the lack of end of day scrambling... I think one of them is skum. And I think because we had the initial end of day move towards Joth when you changed over and I changed over and EFHW changed over... the fact that that did not happen makes me suspect of Joth.

Cool. We’re sympatico. I’ve been thinking a lot about our inability to exile Joth (or EFHW, but there was less traction there) and what could have made it so hard. Scumminess has been my answer.

[WestCoastDidds]

I responded to Swowl above before realizing there were 2 more pages of content.

Jim, I freaking love your chart. Deadline mid-day on a weekend is tough. But I think a part of inability to coalesce is related to scum not needing to bus. Joth and math both got up to E-2 on the last day, but it was easy to just stay and possibility not lose a buddy than to bus. I think if they had both been town, there’d have been more willingness on the part of scum to move to get one of them bounced.

I feel like the Joth wagon had different people on it earlier? Is that right? I’ll need to go grad all the VCs when I’m on a computer, but I’m curious about both math and Joths wagon earlier in the game. I’ll do that later today!

[faust]

"MiX finally join and makes joth into a wagon; late enough that it is very unlikely to succeed. T-5 hours."

This is true in hindsight but not when I voted. T-5 hours is a reasonable time.

EBWOP

This ignores that you seemed about ready to vote at T-21 hours, but delayed for 16 hours.

[jotheonah]

Meh.

[jotheonah]

Y’all are substituting wagon analysis for reads ina way that is very tempting, but ultimately self-defeating.

We should be looking at MiX and faust. Especially faust. Give me some time I’ll put together a cogent case.

[faust]

I responded to Swowl above before realizing there were 2 more pages of content.

Jim, I freaking love your chart. Deadline mid-day on a weekend is tough. But I think a part of inability to coalesce is related to scum not needing to bus. Joth and math both got up to E-2 on the last day, but it was easy to just stay and possibility not lose a buddy than to bus. I think if they had both been town, there’d have been more willingness on the part of scum to move to get one of them bounced.

I feel like the Joth wagon had different people on it earlier? Is that right? I’ll need to go grad all the VCs when I’m on a computer, but I’m curious about both math and Joths wagon earlier in the game. I’ll do that later today!

Earlier joth wagon was really quite early.

joth (4): iguana, Jimmmmm, MiX, faust

Early Jimmmmm wagon:

Jimmmmm (5): faust, MiX, mathdude, EFHW, joth

So compared to the end-of-day wagons, the people on Jimmmmm just stayed there, other than me and MiX who went back to joth.

I suppose iguana and Jimmmmm's later unwillingness to switch to joth is somewhat suspect. Looking back I especially found these back-to-back posts curious:

Jimmmmm (3): mathdude, EFHW, jotheonah
mathdude (4): 2.71828....., iguanaiguana, gkrieg13, Jimmmmm
MiX (1): LaLight
joth (4): faust, MiX, WestCoastDidds, Swowl

Fine, vote: joth

The former is the last post iguana makes. Assembling a vote count does not seem like the action of a player who's about to disappear. iguana says this:

Also, I hate nexiles. I had intended to be there at EoD but my wife pulled me away 10m before deadline and when I remembered to check if I could move my vote last minute I was 2 minutes late and the thread was locked.

Now I know that is probably not a precise measurement, but EFHW's vote was more than 10 minutes before deadline.
iguana: Can you confirm of deny that you saw EFHW's vote before D1 ended?

[MiX]

Y’all are substituting wagon analysis for reads ina way that is very tempting, but ultimately self-defeating.

We should be looking at MiX and faust. Especially faust. Give me some time I’ll put together a cogent case.

Killing LL to push me and faust doesn't work cause LL always scumreads us. You should've known that.

[faust]

Y’all are substituting wagon analysis for reads ina way that is very tempting, but ultimately self-defeating.

We should be looking at MiX and faust. Especially faust. Give me some time I’ll put together a cogent case.

Killing LL to push me and faust doesn't work cause LL always scumreads us. You should've known that.

Can confirm that this is the case. I am not sure that your argument works though: Even if LaLight always scumreads us, it is still beneficial for scum!us to remove them.

[Jimmmmm]

Jim, I freaking love your chart. Deadline mid-day on a weekend is tough. But I think a part of inability to coalesce is related to scum not needing to bus. Joth and math both got up to E-2 on the last day, but it was easy to just stay and possibility not lose a buddy than to bus. I think if they had both been town, there’d have been more willingness on the part of scum to move to get one of them bounced.

Ha, I knew you'd comment on it!

As far as I can see, the only time either of them got to 5 votes was when EFHW put them there about 15 and 5 minutes before deadline. It's not like a stalemate 6-6 where everyone refused to budge. Only 9 people were on the two main wagons at Day's end, which means in order to get an exile, all but 2 of them would have to end up together.

[Jimmmmm]

I mean surely if anyone's to blame for the no-exile it's joth, math and LL for not being on one of the main wagons at Day's end.

[MiX]

Y’all are substituting wagon analysis for reads ina way that is very tempting, but ultimately self-defeating.

We should be looking at MiX and faust. Especially faust. Give me some time I’ll put together a cogent case.

Killing LL to push me and faust doesn't work cause LL always scumreads us. You should've known that.

Can confirm that this is the case. I am not sure that your argument works though: Even if LaLight always scumreads us, it is still beneficial for scum!us to remove them.

But it's not beneficial for other scum teams to kill them to push us, right?

[faust]

Y’all are substituting wagon analysis for reads ina way that is very tempting, but ultimately self-defeating.

We should be looking at MiX and faust. Especially faust. Give me some time I’ll put together a cogent case.

Killing LL to push me and faust doesn't work cause LL always scumreads us. You should've known that.

Can confirm that this is the case. I am not sure that your argument works though: Even if LaLight always scumreads us, it is still beneficial for scum!us to remove them.

But it's not beneficial for other scum teams to kill them to push us, right?

Why not? What I wrote above provides a reason for why scum!us would kill LaLight, and thus if LaLight dies we can be pushed with that reasoning.

[faust]

I mean surely if anyone's to blame for the no-exile it's joth, math and LL for not being on one of the main wagons at Day's end.

What point are you trying to make with this?

[Jimmmmm]

I mean surely if anyone's to blame for the no-exile it's joth, math and LL for not being on one of the main wagons at Day's end.

What point are you trying to make with this?

That we shouldn't assume that a no-exile can only happen because of scum refusing to bus.

[faust]

I mean surely if anyone's to blame for the no-exile it's joth, math and LL for not being on one of the main wagons at Day's end.

What point are you trying to make with this?

That we shouldn't assume that a no-exile can only happen because of scum refusing to bus.

Is anyone assuming this?

[EFHW]

Alternatively, they were both town so scum didn't bother to show up at EOD.

What is your logic there?
Exile is better than not if they are both town right?

They would have assumed that town would make sure an exile went through. Jimmmmm was the only one with an inconvenient time zone, I think. I'm not saying I think this is what happened. I'm saying it is just as likely as your theory.

Loath though I am to admit it, I am agreeing with Jimmmmm here. Your conclusion that one of them has to be scum is flimsy at best, and then you say there are only two choices, math and joth.

The no exile is also complicated by the fact that MiX says he was policy not-voting math because of all the early exiles math has had.

[Jimmmmm]

I mean surely if anyone's to blame for the no-exile it's joth, math and LL for not being on one of the main wagons at Day's end.

What point are you trying to make with this?

That we shouldn't assume that a no-exile can only happen because of scum refusing to bus.

Is anyone assuming this?

Hopefully not any more.

[jotheonah]

I mean surely if anyone's to blame for the no-exile it's joth, math and LL for not being on one of the main wagons at Day's end.

Which is exactly what makes math and me town.

[Jimmmmm]

Well, Town also wants to make sure the other guy is exiled.

[faust]

Y’all are substituting wagon analysis for reads ina way that is very tempting, but ultimately self-defeating.

We should be looking at MiX and faust. Especially faust. Give me some time I’ll put together a cogent case.

A wise man would call this

Thinly veiled OMGUS.

[EFHW]

I had the same issue as Didds - Didn't realize I had 50 more posts to read, and no PPE. I still agree with my post, but it seems to ignore subsequent comments because I hadn't read them yet.

[WestCoastDidds]

I responded to Swowl above before realizing there were 2 more pages of content.

Jim, I freaking love your chart. Deadline mid-day on a weekend is tough. But I think a part of inability to coalesce is related to scum not needing to bus. Joth and math both got up to E-2 on the last day, but it was easy to just stay and possibility not lose a buddy than to bus. I think if they had both been town, there’d have been more willingness on the part of scum to move to get one of them bounced.

I feel like the Joth wagon had different people on it earlier? Is that right? I’ll need to go grad all the VCs when I’m on a computer, but I’m curious about both math and Joths wagon earlier in the game. I’ll do that later today!

Earlier joth wagon was really quite early.

joth (4): iguana, Jimmmmm, MiX, faust

Early Jimmmmm wagon:

Jimmmmm (5): faust, MiX, mathdude, EFHW, joth

So compared to the end-of-day wagons, the people on Jimmmmm just stayed there, other than me and MiX who went back to joth.

Thanks for doing this for me, faust. That is a bit different than I remembered (I didn't recall that it was really early) but I can see wht I had the sense that Joth was scummy most of the day in that I think that wagon you listed above is all town.

I suppose iguana and Jimmmmm's later unwillingness to switch to joth is somewhat suspect. Looking back I especially found these back-to-back posts curious:

Jimmmmm (3): mathdude, EFHW, jotheonah
mathdude (4): 2.71828....., iguanaiguana, gkrieg13, Jimmmmm
MiX (1): LaLight
joth (4): faust, MiX, WestCoastDidds, Swowl

Fine, vote: joth

The former is the last post iguana makes. Assembling a vote count does not seem like the action of a player who's about to disappear. iguana says this:

Also, I hate nexiles. I had intended to be there at EoD but my wife pulled me away 10m before deadline and when I remembered to check if I could move my vote last minute I was 2 minutes late and the thread was locked.

Now I know that is probably not a precise measurement, but EFHW's vote was more than 10 minutes before deadline.
iguana: Can you confirm of deny that you saw EFHW's vote before D1 ended?

EFHWs Joth vote was like 15 minutes before deadlines, so I am not super suspicious of someone estimating that as ten minutes. But its a fair point.

[Dylan32]

Orange spoke up, "I saw Blue and Black in electrical, and there is a vent connecting those two rooms, so if one left without the other maybe the second one to leave vented up and killed!"

Vote Count 2.1

mathdude (2): MiX, 2.71828.....
MiX (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (2): Swowl, faust
faust (1): mathdude
Not Voting (5): gkrieg13, Jimmmmm, iguanaiguana, EFHW, WestCoastDidds

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to exile. Day 2 will end September 27, 2021, 03:00:00 pm.

[faust]

This is literally town!math being the D1 exile.

And now you vote Math. What changed your mind?

It must needs be remarked that MiX has rudely ignored this question.