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[Jimmmmm]

And also that we can be certain enough of this that we should only consider those same wagons for Today's exile?

[mathdude]

And also that we can be certain enough of this that we should only consider those same wagons for Today's exile?

We're talking the difference between probable and possible. Discussions so far today have been focused on what's stated as "probable". It would be tough to crunch numbers on such a situation, since it's not perfectly random, independent events. We're talking interactions, teammates, time zones and online times, etc.

Probable is helpful D1, especially toward end of day. And if we don't sort stuff out through 5 or 6 days in D2, maybe we look back at "probable" EoD2 as well. But tunneling on it for 7 days is not helpful.

Let's look at what else is possible. Open up the conversation. I'll leave my vote for now - because it's possible he's scum. I don't know yet how probable, but that will likely sort itself out over the next couple days.

[faust]

Also, I hate nexiles. I had intended to be there at EoD but my wife pulled me away 10m before deadline and when I remembered to check if I could move my vote last minute I was 2 minutes late and the thread was locked.

I don't think even if I had switched that an exile would have happened, so that's my only consolation.

Yeah, I was also 3 minutes late. I feel that having the deadline on a weekend didn't help things.

[faust]

Alternatively, they were both town so scum didn't bother to show up at EOD.

Meh. If this is TvT then scum absolutely wants to exile one of them. they had a prime chance to exile someone without the chance to claim there.

[faust]

vote: joth

[Jimmmmm]

And also that we can be certain enough of this that we should only consider those same wagons for Today's exile?

We're talking the difference between probable and possible. Discussions so far today have been focused on what's stated as "probable". It would be tough to crunch numbers on such a situation, since it's not perfectly random, independent events. We're talking interactions, teammates, time zones and online times, etc.

Probable is helpful D1, especially toward end of day. And if we don't sort stuff out through 5 or 6 days in D2, maybe we look back at "probable" EoD2 as well. But tunneling on it for 7 days is not helpful.

Let's look at what else is possible. Open up the conversation. I'll leave my vote for now - because it's possible he's scum. I don't know yet how probable, but that will likely sort itself out over the next couple days.

I'm not talking about possible vs probable. Anything that I don't know to be impossible is possible. "Certain" may have been the wrong word - I meant "consider sufficiently probable". I'm not convinced that Swowl's theory is more probable than random, let alone sufficiently probable. And I also have to weigh it against the fact that I think mathdude and joth are each some amount more likely than average to be Town.

[Jimmmmm]

Alternatively, they were both town so scum didn't bother to show up at EOD.

Meh. If this is TvT then scum absolutely wants to exile one of them. they had a prime chance to exile someone without the chance to claim there.

When and who?

[faust]

Alternatively, they were both town so scum didn't bother to show up at EOD.

Meh. If this is TvT then scum absolutely wants to exile one of them. they had a prime chance to exile someone without the chance to claim there.

When and who?

Well, either mathdude or joth, just before the deadline.

[Swowl]

Ok, I see you say that you had more townreads on the Joth wagon than the Math wagon.

@Swowl Who was scummy on the Math wagon and who was towny on the Joth wagon that made you pick Joth over Math EoD1?

I have already mentioned that WCD and MiX are my TRs on the Joth wagon.
I have already mentioned that I think Jimmm is town, from the Math wagon.
I have not mentioned that I think you are moderately skummy so far this game.

Those would be my big three.

ppe - tons of faust

[Jimmmmm]

Alternatively, they were both town so scum didn't bother to show up at EOD.

Meh. If this is TvT then scum absolutely wants to exile one of them. they had a prime chance to exile someone without the chance to claim there.

When and who?

Well, either mathdude or joth, just before the deadline.

No, I mean who had the chance to exile them?

[faust]

Alternatively, they were both town so scum didn't bother to show up at EOD.

Meh. If this is TvT then scum absolutely wants to exile one of them. they had a prime chance to exile someone without the chance to claim there.

When and who?

Well, either mathdude or joth, just before the deadline.

No, I mean who had the chance to exile them?

Pretty much anyone? It's easy to justify a last-minute switch in the face of "we need an exile".

[Swowl]

I'm open to possibilities, but I wouldn't allow assumptions of what scum would or wouldn't do to override any previous reads I might have had. Wagon analysis is a factor, but only one of many. Unless you can argue who the scum were who would have helped with the exile but didn't want to bus, I see no reason to assume anything.

Don't actually do this because it would be a huge waste of time.
But when in the world can you think of game that is open like this in which there has been a no lynch day 1 and one of the wagons were not skum?

I would have thought the sample size here would be low enough that you couldn't really conclude anything.

To make sure I understand:
There are three scum in this game. You're arguing that what happened was (at least, but presumably exactly) one scum was a candidate, and the remaining two refused to bus them in a situation where if they were Town they would have helped get an exile through, and those two scum made the difference between an exile going through or not?

No clue on what you mean about sample size. In the very small amount of sites I have played on since I started I would very much argue that you can pro-town argue policy anything with group over pretty much anywhere else I have played.

And... yes, or at least kind of. Just like... why would skum not take advantage of a claim situation potential like that if they could go for either/or?

PPE a lot

[Swowl]

Alternatively, they were both town so scum didn't bother to show up at EOD.

Meh. If this is TvT then scum absolutely wants to exile one of them. they had a prime chance to exile someone without the chance to claim there.

this. also, they would be thinking they could get a town claim out of it, not just defense on skum not having to claim.

[Swowl]

And also that we can be certain enough of this that we should only consider those same wagons for Today's exile?

? the certainty I have is based on the things I have said about how I think one of them are skum. If you disagree, that is cool. But we did not get an exile, so yeah... the majority of my focus during the night was on the wagons we had from Day 1. 

[MiX]

What a waste of time.

Jimmmmm, why can't we focus on the wagons first for the sole reason people scumread them?

[Jimmmmm]

That's an excellent reason to focus on them.

[Jimmmmm]

Player	Vote	Last post (time before deadline)	Wagons at time of last post	Ability to be around at deadline	Willingness to change vote
MiX	joth	Around at deadline	math 5, joth 4	Yes	Unwilling to move to mathdude
Swowl	joth	Around at deadline	math 5, joth 4	Yes	Did not move to mathdude, but later said he tried to
EFHW	math	Around at deadline	math 5, joth 4	Yes	Yes
iguana	math	30 minutes	math 4, joth 4, Jim 3	No indication	Indicated willing to avoid nexile
gkrieg	math	45 minutes	math 4, joth 3, Jim 3	Indicated likely inability	joth yes, Jim no
e	math	55 minutes	math 4, joth 3, Jim 3	No indication	joth yes, Jim no
faust	joth	1 hour	math 4, joth 3, Jim 3	No indication	No indication
math	Jim	1.5 hours	math 4, joth 3, Jim 3	No indication	Presumed willing due to self-preservation
Jim	math	3 hours	math 4, joth 3, Jim 3	Indicated inability due to timezones	No indication
joth	Jim	3 hours	math 3, joth 3, Jim 3	Later indicated inability due to RL stuff	Presumed willing due to self-preservation
Didds	joth	3.5 hours	math 3, joth 3, Jim 3	Unsure due to going to the lake	Yes

[faust]

Why is it relevant to include what joth said about his availability after the fact, but not for me or iguana?

[Jimmmmm]

I'm not seeing too many opportunities to get an exile through. MiX and Swowl could have exiled math, so you could argue for a math/MiX/Swowl team.
Aside from from those around at deadline, at the time of each person's last post, the biggest wagon was 4 (X - 3), and for most the biggest opposing wagon was 3 (X - 4). You could argue iguana should have switched to joth or faust or Didds should have switched to math, or that you don't believe people who say they weren't available, but given how late it was when anyone hit 4 or 5 votes, I would attribute the no exile to general disorganisation and failure to come to consensus, rather than 1-2 people not doing what they should have.

[Jimmmmm]

Why is it relevant to include what joth said about his availability after the fact, but not for me or iguana?

Thanks, I should have checked. Hang on.

[Jimmmmm]

Player	Vote	Last post (time before deadline)	Wagons at time of last post	Ability to change vote before deadline	Willingness to change vote
MiX	joth	Around at deadline	math 5, joth 4	Yes	Unwilling to move to mathdude
Swowl	joth	Around at deadline	math 5, joth 4	Yes	Did not move to mathdude, but later indicated he tried to but was late
EFHW	math	Around at deadline	math 5, joth 4	Yes	Yes
iguana	math	30 minutes	math 4, joth 4, Jim 3	Later indicated inability due to being pulled away, and then was late	Indicated willing to avoid nexile
gkrieg	math	45 minutes	math 4, joth 3, Jim 3	Indicated likely inability	joth yes, Jim no
e	math	55 minutes	math 4, joth 3, Jim 3	No indication	joth yes, Jim no
faust	joth	1 hour	math 4, joth 3, Jim 3	Later indicated he tried to but was late	No indication
math	Jim	1.5 hours	math 4, joth 3, Jim 3	No indication	Presumed willing due to self-preservation
Jim	math	3 hours	math 4, joth 3, Jim 3	Inability due to timezones	No indication
joth	Jim	3 hours	math 3, joth 3, Jim 3	Later indicated inability due to RL stuff	Presumed willing due to self-preservation
Didds	joth	3.5 hours	math 3, joth 3, Jim 3	Unsure due to going to the lake	Yes

[Jimmmmm]

Actually funnily enough both joth and mathdude had their votes on me instead of each other, so if you want to argue that scum were responsible for the no-exile, I think there's a stronger argument that they're both scum than that one of them is.

[faust]

Hey Jimmmmm, could you explain in more detail what made you vote mathdude over joth? Your EoD1 posts are a bit terse on the issue, which is understandable given the lack of time.

[faust]

I'm not seeing too many opportunities to get an exile through. MiX and Swowl could have exiled math, so you could argue for a math/MiX/Swowl team.
Aside from from those around at deadline, at the time of each person's last post, the biggest wagon was 4 (X - 3), and for most the biggest opposing wagon was 3 (X - 4). You could argue iguana should have switched to joth or faust or Didds should have switched to math, or that you don't believe people who say they weren't available, but given how late it was when anyone hit 4 or 5 votes, I would attribute the no exile to general disorganisation and failure to come to consensus, rather than 1-2 people not doing what they should have.

This analysis is alright, and I don't think the nexile was due to people maliciously skipping the deadline. However "General disorganisation" is something that scum definitely had an impact on. The leading wagon at the end was joth, and it started fairly late, and at the time a lot of people were hesitant to join for very lackluster reasons. Here is a timeline:

Vote: joth

Me starting the joth wagon. T-21 hours.

Vote: joth

This follow logically.

I agree with you.

MiX voices agreement but won't join me in voting. T-21 hours.

TLDR; I think Joth is playing too skummy to actually be skum. What am I missing here?
[...]
TLDRX2; IDK. Almost everything there makes me want to say Joth is skummy af. The thing is... I also just don't think that Joth like... does that as skum. Especially after opening the game they way they did. I am trying to talk myself into skum, but I have to really try so I think I am a no go on Joth today.

Swowl investigates joth and does a weird "too scummy to be scum" defense. T-14.5 hours.

I guess I'll end by saying I find joth either definite scum, or definite town... but I have no idea which.  It's not one of those "in-the-middle, slightly leaning one way" deals.  Except that it is, because I don't know which way I'm leaning.  Not a viable wagon D1 at this point anyway here, so I'll check back again D2 if/when relevant.

mathdude does not perceive joth to be a viable option and that's his main reason against voting there. T-14 hours.

I think joth's town. But this looks really weird. It probably means joth is scum, but I don't know, I like wall posts from joth and he's been making enough...

This isn't an easy person to read today I'd say.

MiX is also very ambivalent about joth, which seems in contrast to his earlier reaction to my vote. T-5.5 hours.

What can I say guys? I’m a mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a tortilla.

Vote: joth

A smart man once said, the only sure way to know someone's alignment...

MiX finally join and makes joth into a wagon; late enough that it is very unlikely to succeed. T-5 hours.

I think I have some understanding of joth's game so far now, and it's making a bit more sense. I think the "stick to a read" plan explains the vibe I (and I gather Swowl) was getting, and it sounds likely to be a premeditated (ie non-alignment-dependent) plan. I think I'm leaning slight Town, but also that he warrants further investigation on a future Day.

Jimmmmm joins the club of "uh I don't really know but let's look at this tomorrow". At least this point has an actual read in it. T-4 hours.

Vote: Joth

This vote from Didds makes joth a semi-viable option. I feel like they can't be partners. T-3.5 hours.

Okay I just said I'm not joining the mathdude wagon but I have to put my vote somewhere more useful than where it is, and I prefer mathdude to the other options. Sorry folks, but I'm going to have to turn it in. Might be around for another 10 minutes or so if there are any last-minute questions or anything.

Vote: mathdude

Jimmmmm joins a wagon he expressed dislike for rather than the wagon on joth. T-3 hours.

If we're going to exile someone, Jimmmmm seems the most helpful, and IMO, most likely to be scum.
EFHW should also be good tp get future reads on people, but I think she's town so I won't vote there.
Joth would also be a good vote, or maybe MiX.

mathdude calls joth a "good vote" but prefers to stick to the dying Jimmmmm wagon. T-1.5 hours.

And from there we go into EoD territory explored by Jimmmmm. It strikes my as extremely odd how many people were hesitant about the joth wagon despite barely anyone actually townreading him.

[MiX]

"MiX is also very ambivalent about joth, which seems in contrast to his earlier reaction to my vote. T-5.5 hours"

This is true in hindsight but not when I voted. T-5 hours is a reasonable time.