I know that I am green, so I am leaving myself out of my evaluation.
Day one... since both of the wagons were town, I don't think scum cares where they were. Joth, dylan, and EFHW are all on math. Space and I are on Mix.
Day two... Joth and EFHW are both on gkrieg. If Joth is scum, is it likely that traitorEFHW risks following him that closely? Probably not.
Day three... Dylan is early on faust, along with space and me. Joth is on Ash, EFHW is on me. If either Joth or EFHW is scum with Dylan, there was no reason to join the faust wagon since the exile was going through regardless.
On my reread, I tried not to tunnel EFHW. The VCA supports Dylan/EFHW as much as Dylan/Joth. EFHW/Joth is not as likley, to me, because they are both on gkrieg and there wouldn't have been any reason to do that.
So, right now Dylan is my common denominator.
And then I tried to think about the Ash kill. Joth has been fixated on Ash D3 and D4. Having Ash as the NK took all of the wind out of his sails. I don't think scum Joth gets quite so fixated, and if he does, he doesn't nightkill him knowing he can be keep flying that flag without looking scummy. EFHW is one of the most savvy players out there. She definitely has the ability to suggest or go along with leaving Space alive to create some doubt in everyone's most towny read. Further, in addition to me, she has collected votes from MiX, Robz (D1), gkreig (D2), and was on Asher's short list on D4 (we no exiled). So, town has found her vote-worthy. That neither Dylan nor Joth vote for her suggests to me that she is likely the traitor.
So, I have landed at most likely pair:
Dylan/EFHW
Second most likely:
Dylan/Joth
Dylan's posts are super towny, but his votes are not. Further, he posts are long and have lots going on but don't actually end up exerting any influence.
Yeah, there are a lot of holes in this.
Day 1... I just don't think this is exactly true. Sure scum might not care which wagon ultimately goes through, but scum should always care about where they are. I mean look at how the next couple days went: we spent a pretty big amount of time fighting arguments about scum being off the wagon D1. D1 scum wouldn't have known that MiX was what he was and that he would essentially IC himself, so I could imagine a case for thinking being on his wagon as opposed to mathdude's would have been a way better position down the road.
Day 2... The assumption that the traitor was trying to follow or signal to their partner seems dubious. To me, a big part of why I don't think joth is scum was because I don't think mcmc buses like that D1. The thing I realized earlier today where I said I needed to rethink things is that this logic holds for scum!mcmc and known partner!joth, but it wouldn't hold at all if joth was actually an unrecruited traitor. Mcmc wouldn't have known that was a bus. So scum!EFHW and traitor!joth is still on the table.
Day 3... This logic here is maybe fine, except you can just as easily swap you and I in this argument from everyone else's perspective. The interesting thing is that if you are actually town, joth and EFHW had to be thrilled to not be on that wagon, especially with the air of inevitability that seemed to surround it that day.
I don't know how you are drawing conclusions on VCA when this is the breakdown of the exile wagons--
EFHW: on math and gkrieg, off faust. (2 on 1 off)
joth: on mathdude and gkrieg, off faust. (2 on 1 off)
me: on math and faust, off gkrieg. (2 on 1 off)
Didds: on gkrieg and faust, off mathdude. (2 on 1 off)
Space (for kicks and giggles) on faust, off mathdude and gkrieg. (1 on 2 off)
If you are going to try to draw anything useful from this, you would need to look at the pairings of who was on wagons together. The issue there is that it is divided up really evenly. The only two combos that have anything other than 1 shared wagon is EFHW-joth, who were both on mathdude and gkrieg, and joth-Space, who never ended on the same wagon.
EFHW/Joth is not as likley, to me, because they are both on gkrieg and there wouldn't have been any reason to do that.
Why not? That day was weird where there was so little momentum towards any exile that it's completely reasonable to think they would both be on wagon there to make sure something went through.
And then I tried to think about the Ash kill. Joth has been fixated on Ash D3 and D4. Having Ash as the NK took all of the wind out of his sails. I don't think scum Joth gets quite so fixated, and if he does, he doesn't nightkill him knowing he can be keep flying that flag without looking scummy. EFHW is one of the most savvy players out there. She definitely has the ability to suggest or go along with leaving Space alive to create some doubt in everyone's most towny read
This is actually a good point for town!joth, except like you say, WIFOM. Joth is good enough and has been around long enough to know that he could make this exact point as part of his defense after that kill. I'll come back to joth later though.
Further, in addition to me, she [EFHW] has collected votes from MiX, Robz (D1), gkreig (D2), and was on Asher's short list on D4 (we no exiled). So, town has found her vote-worthy. That neither Dylan nor Joth vote for her suggests to me that she is likely the traitor.
How does that follow? EFHW was the traitor and wasn't recruited, how would either of us know not to vote there? At this point, either traitor was recruited to start the game and scum no-killed the other night, or scum shot and recruited the traitor the night of no kill. Personally, I think recruited late is more likely than no-killing there, but I don't know. If that's the case, this point means nothing. If the traitor was recruited N0 (thus becoming part of the scum team and not a traitor), then it literally can't suggest EFHW is the traitor since there wasn't really one.
Didds, I know it doesn't sound like it, but I'm really trying not to tunnel you, everything today has just seemed off, whether in terms of cases or mindset or whatever.
Dylan's posts are super towny, but his votes are not. Further, he posts are long and have lots going on but don't actually end up exerting any influence.
You and I have nearly identical voting patterns in terms of both number of exiles on/off AND in terms of "partner" we could have been on wagon with, and this makes:
--snip--
Your observation on Dylan's votes is a stronger version of something I was also thinking.
feel extremely opportunistic and scummy.