Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[SpaceAnemone]

Ah, sorry... Today got away from me because of a lot of virtual games-based socialising before I got over to f.ds.

We have 4-ish IRL days until the next deadline, so tomorrow is my best chance at putting in some serious effort! Before last game-night, I was pretty townie on Joth because of the mcmc votes (coupled with a prior belief that scum probably would have recruited), and that Didds was pretty townie for being on the MiX wagon, especially since I was scum-reading faust in part for his insistence that there should be at least one scum on there. All that needs to be re-evaluated in the light of faust's flip and the lack of NK.

[ashersky]

I think that, at this point in the game, basically everyone is saying adequately towny things when they post.  It's fairly easy to remain cautious and play it safe now.

As such, I think POE is the strongest tool we have left (Jorbles-style).  I think joth was making this same point.

I'm basically at joth OR EFHW, WCD OR Dylan, then Space.

[ashersky]

Re-reading EFHW (Print Page style).

Day 1: Votes multiple players, doesn't stick to reads, calls out a few odd plays by others, no long posts at all.
Day 2: More active in the giving reads and opinions department, didn't really hone in on anyone but me and gkrieg.  More interaction with joth than I recalled. 
Day 3: Starts on Dylan.  Wishy-washy on me.  Then WCD.  Let the faust wagon go, asked for support/clarity/etc. from Space.

Day 3 was EFHW's worst, by far.  Worth a re-read if you are looking to feel worse about her alignment.

[EFHW]

I'm taking another look at Space. We've been townreading them because they were voting mcmc D1. But iirc, mcmc was never in danger. My reason for suspecting them is that I feel like they have been quite verbose but a number of times I didn't feel like they actually said much. Also POE if I continue to count ash as town. It's super late, so I'll reread Space more closely tomorrow.  Am interested to hear if anyone else shares this impression.

[EFHW]

What if scum didn't nk because they were worried about POE when another person was verified to be town? Then they could still have recruited N0. We could no-exile today for the same POE reason. 

[ashersky]

What if scum didn't nk because they were worried about POE when another person was verified to be town? Then they could still have recruited N0. We could no-exile today for the same POE reason.

With six alive, no-exile does come into play.  I'd be okay with it, honestly.  No one is super towny, so that helps confound mafia's choices.

[jotheonah]

+1 for no exile honestly.

[WestCoastDidds]

I will vote for EFHW or for no exile, but I can't see risking the game on anyone else. :/

[SpaceAnemone]

I'm basically at joth OR EFHW, WCD OR Dylan, then Space.

I'm reading this as (at least?) one scum in {Joth,EFHW}, which is interesting because if we think about traitors then they're the two with possible traitor narratives I've already thought about for D1: EFHW because of her voting pattern and Joth because he was the one scum!mcmc was tunnelling. Anyway this post is a bunch of thoughts on one of those two being scum.

If EFHW is on the scum-team, the fact she voted right behind mcmc a couple of times in d1 is weird unless she's doing that to signal to the scum team as the traitor. It EFHW is the traitor, wouldn't she have signalled both of her scum buddies, and not just mcmc? If that's the case, who else was she signalling to? Her votes for d1 are:
#40: Votes Robz, right behind mcmc, and before Robz has even shown up within the game.
#122: Votes Ash, second place on the wagon right after town!gkrieg.
#157: Starts a wagon on me.
#188: Votes Mathdude, where Dylan, town!faust and Ash are already on the wagon.
#237: Votes Joth, where mcmc is first on the wagon.
#317: Moves back to Mathdude, where Dylan, town!faust, Ash and Joth are on-wagon now.

I think if EFHW is a traitor and she's signalling to the mafia using votes, then the original pair is most likely to be mcmc-Dylan, because EFHW could have joined Ash on the gkrieg wagon at #122 instead of voting for Ash, if she'd really been signalling to the mafia by following them. However, Dylan voted Mathdude at #23 and just never moved for the whole of D1, leaving any traitor who wanted to follow his votes with exceedingly few options.

I also don't think Joth is a likely partner for EFHW, because either mcmc was bussing Joth hard even though mcmc doesn't appear to like bussing at all, or Joth was the traitor, mcmc was unlucky about who he chose to tunnel, and EFHW was weirdly just sheeping her full-mafia buddy some of the time. While some of those scenarios could happen at a pinch, there are probably more likely explanations if we look outside this trio.

Joth is an unlikely original scum with mcmc because of the mcmc bussing, so let's explore how his voting looks if he's a traitor. He votes Didds, Dylan, gkrieg, MiX, Ash, (unvotes), and Mathdude in D1, which is a wide pool. The people he didn't vote for are EFHW, faust, Robz, me and mcmc. Since I don't think he and EFHW are partners, and everyone else other than me has already flipped, then this seems unlikely as a method of signalling that he knows who scum are, because he'd have had to be inconsistent about it and voted for at least one of them, which is bad for signalling. It just doesn't seem like the voting pattern of someone who knows what's going on. In D2 he goes for Ash and then gkrieg, then in D3 only Ash. Plus, his outrage at Ash's counterclaim feels pretty close to my outrage at MiX's D1 play, so I read that as coming from a townie place.

So if there has to be one scum in Joth or EFHW then traitor!EFHW with scum!Dylan seems the most likely. I would have to re-read their actual interactions, though I do recall scum-reading Dylan for some pro-Mathdude-exile posting, just not quite as much as I scumread faust for the same thing.

Also, it's also perfectly possible that the scums are two out of {Ash, Didds, Dylan} instead, but that needs to be a different set of thinking in a different post.

[Swowl]

Vote Count 4.2:

Not Voting (6): WestCoastDidds, EFHW, SpaceAnenome, Joth, Ashersky, Dylan32

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to Exile.
Day 4 ends Wednesday, March 24th at 5:50pm Forum Time.

[Dylan32]

Vote: No exile

So I was thinking I had a pretty good idea who was scum based mostly on having decently strong townreads on a few people, but then I remembered that the traitor wasn't recruited N0 confounds some of my reasoning since partner interactions wouldn't be the same there. So I definitely think no exile is the right move here.

[Dylan32]

Vote: No exile

So I was thinking I had a pretty good idea who was scum based mostly on having decently strong townreads on a few people, but then I remembered that the traitor wasn't recruited N0 confounds some of my reasoning since partner interactions wouldn't be the same there. So I definitely think no exile is the right move here.

EBWOP "that the possibility the traitor wasn't recruited"

I started typing that sentence in a slightly different way, edited for clarity and accidentally left out the obvious conditional on that.

[WestCoastDidds]

Vote: No exile

[SpaceAnemone]

then I remembered that the traitor wasn't recruited N0

Possible scum-slip here, though it's only particularly damning in the context of the two other part-written posts I have. Please can I have time to post these before anyone else no-exiles?

[WestCoastDidds]

Yes, of course

Unvote

[SpaceAnemone]

Actually, why don't I just post one of these part-written posts now, with the following caveat: I've split my reasoning into "what if at least one of EFHW and Joth is scum?" (the thing I posted already) and "what if neither of them is?", which covers the whole space of probabilities between them, but is not good for focusing on how unlikely some things in one scenario are compared to some things in the other.

Given the possibility of a Dylan scumslip about scum not having recruited N0, I'm leaning towards a Dylan-EFHW hypothesis, though it's also worrying me a bit how easily Didds is just following along with opinions here. She did that with the "Nothing for me to do, yeah?" and then active-but-passive posts during faust's exile, too, so it's still ringing scumbells. The obvious common denominator would be scum!Dylan, so my feeling now is I'd vote there above anywhere else. In an ideal world, I'd have time to attempt to work out how unlikely each of the possible 20 scum-pairings is. Let's see how I go. I also have a mostly-completed Dylan re-read, for obvious reasons. (At least hopefully obvious following me hitting "post" on my other tab!).

[SpaceAnemone]

[This was all written at least 12 hours ago, but has been sitting unposted because I'm wary of the unknowns I mentioned in my previous post]

I've already looked at the "at least one scum in {Joth,EFHW}" hypothesis, but there's also the "no scum in {EFHW,Joth}" thing to consider.

Looking at D1 wagons, it's hard to see anything that would tie any two out of {Didds,Dylan,Ash} together as looking like they're working with mcmc and against town. Dylan is on Mathdude all day, Didds is on EFHW for most of the day before moving to Mix, and Ash meanders around, voting Didds, gkrieg and joth before ending up on Mathdude, with a very short interlude on Robz. He's on the Joth wagon at the same time as mcmc (and town!faust), but none of the rest of his behaviour seems to coordinate.

The D2 wagons also look quite uncoordinated. Dylan joins my MiX vote early on, and is the only non-green (to me) person in a three-person wagon. Didds goes straight for EFHW, but eventually moves to follow faust's gkrieg push. The others on that wagon are either flipped green (faust and MiX), or assumed green for this hypothetical non-scum-EFHW-and-Joth situation. Neither of the other two (Dylan and Ash) was even voting at the end of the day.

I just don't see much cooperation between any pairs here with D2 behaviour. Ash could have lent support to the EFHW or MiX wagons, but instead supported my wagon on faust before unvoting towards the end, so I guess if we have to propose any pairs out of this, then it would be Dylan-Didds.

[ashersky]

Space -- this is all useful information.  I wonder if you can get it all put into the thread, and then we let the day end without an exile.

If mafia take out another towny, you (or we, if you aren't around anymore) can add that data point to your info.

[WestCoastDidds]

Actually, why don't I just post one of these part-written posts now, with the following caveat: I've split my reasoning into "what if at least one of EFHW and Joth is scum?" (the thing I posted already) and "what if neither of them is?", which covers the whole space of probabilities between them, but is not good for focusing on how unlikely some things in one scenario are compared to some things in the other.

Given the possibility of a Dylan scumslip about scum not having recruited N0, I'm leaning towards a Dylan-EFHW hypothesis, though it's also worrying me a bit how easily Didds is just following along with opinions here. She did that with the "Nothing for me to do, yeah?" and then active-but-passive posts during faust's exile, too, so it's still ringing scumbells. The obvious common denominator would be scum!Dylan, so my feeling now is I'd vote there above anywhere else. In an ideal world, I'd have time to attempt to work out how unlikely each of the possible 20 scum-pairings is. Let's see how I go. I also have a mostly-completed Dylan re-read, for obvious reasons. (At least hopefully obvious following me hitting "post" on my other tab!).

Regarding active but passive posts... I set an alarm to check in so literally, I look and see that I am on the faust wagon so there is no need to move my vote in order to ensure that we exile.  However, I did stay around and engage with those who were present including unvoting so you had some time.  It hasn't been passive so much as accomodating who have a better read than I do.

In is inaccurate to suggest, however, that my votes have been just following along. I have consistently voting for EFHW, only moving once it becomes clear that being stubborn about that vote isn't good for town.  I was never going to vote for mathdude because it was his first game, so consolidated my vote on the other wagon D1. I started D2 voting for EFHW, and only moved to gkrieg once faust made a good argument AND it once again became clear that no one else found anything scummy about EFHW. D3 (as I said before) I was still sore about the gkrieg mis-exile. Today I have been clear about my EFHW intentions.  I, however, am also not so cocksure that I am willing to risk the game on my read, though, so no-exile is a possibility, too.  There is no other vote that I can see myself making. I have not been voting around or flitting from person to person in terms of suspicion.

[SpaceAnemone]

Space -- this is all useful information.  I wonder if you can get it all put into the thread, and then we let the day end without an exile.

If mafia take out another towny, you (or we, if you aren't around anymore) can add that data point to your info.

I'm trying to get my thoughts down, but they don't all exist yet.. I'm re-reading the same info everyone else is, in light of faust's flip and the unexpected no-kill result. I have a part-done Dylan re-read, and since I realised there are only 10 possible scum-pairs and not 20, I started more of a complete survey of the possibilities.

I feel like if I'm the only one driving content, then I'm a bit of an obvious nk target, unless I'm completely wrong, in which case perhaps they'll have more incentive to leave me alive. Hopefully by stating that, I'll at least have added some extra wifom around everything. Even better might be if the rest of town had something to contribute to a discussion...

[EFHW]

I'm around, in favor of no exile.  Saving my thoughts for tomorrow.

[Swowl]

Vote Count 4.3:

No Exile (1): Dylan32
Not Voting (5): WestCoastDidds, EFHW, SpaceAnenome, Joth, Ashersky

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to Exile.
Day 4 ends Wednesday, March 24th at 5:50pm Forum Time. That is under 2 days from now!

[WestCoastDidds]

Space is reasonably sure they’ll get whacked in the night, so she wants to talk it out now.

EFHW is apparently certain that she will be alive tomorrow so has no need to share her thoughts.

The former is super town, the latter is super scummy.

[ashersky]

I think WCD's point on EFHW is valid.

[EFHW]

I think WCD's point on EFHW is valid.

I am pretty certain. Would you pick me to nk? I actually think scum doesn't have any good choices for the nk -- Space is the most likely -- but they would almost certainly see me as a possible mis-exile. Also, the thoughts I considered posting all seemed like they would help scum and not town.