Catching up now.
My instinct is that the people who followed dylan onto joseph are much more likely to be scum than he is, particularly since pretty much every one of those votes was justified by saying "Dylan's case seems solid". If he's scum he's bold scum, and I don't feel like I've played enough with him to tell if that's his style
This is a really good point I think.
Space seems more than usually preoccupied with how she's coming off as, and maybe kind of overexplaining herself? The points she's making make logical sense to me though, but she's so eloquent that maybe I shouldn't read too much into it.
ADK continues to look towny to me, also think Glooble is probably town from yesterday. I think Dylan is towny for pushing Joseph, paradoxically enough. faust I don't have much of an impression on yet which is weird, same for Galzria which I'd say makes both more than mildly suspicious.
I would guess that scum killed Mix because he's headstrong and his reads were good, at least in some capacity? Could also be a sign for Robz that his reads yesterday were not correct.
Parts of this post feel off to me. The first half of the Space bit is a rehash of an observation I made previously. The next couple sentences seem to be gently nudging away from where some of the focus has been (particularly regarding the number of people scumreading or willing to exile Glooble). But the next sentence is phrased in such a way to sound like both faust and galz are null ("don't have much of an impression on yet... same for Galz"), but this makes both "more than mildly suspicious." At first read, I was left with the impression of mild suspicion, but the "more than" bit actually suggests that the null read on those two actually makes them both very suspicious. I don't know, just something about that paragraph feels contrived or forced somehow that reads as not a genuine set of reads.
Didds #463 - Why were you originally thinking EFHW was the right way to go?
Most of it is feels, but I found her extended discussion with MiX on D1 was a lot of material with very little content. My thought was one of them was scummy based on that, and her more so than him. Her general level of activity is rather higher than normal, but these are strange times...my level is lower than normal b/c of work so that isn't a huge factor. Finally, the way she joined the quick wagon on me, then unvoted when she realized I hadn't voted for Joseph but then snarked at me for being distracted was all kind of off feeling. The reason I went back to voting for her was the hammer long before deadline when she had said that she thought him town. Not super scummy, but not redeeming either. Added to the fact that she was Mixy's top scum read, its seems a better place to be than anywhere else at the moment. I am not so certain about my feelings that I am gonna get on my pony and ride around arguing my case, but I don't see any reason to move my vote.
I'd buy that.
re: Dylan's long post, I agree with him on most of his points. I don't have a scumread on Galzria, though.
People who were excited by Dylan's scum!Joseph narrative: Dylan, Galzria, Eevee, Glooble, chairs.
People who were not: EFHW, Didds, faust, Space, ADK, Robz, MiX (?).
I think it's reasonable to assume there is at least one scum in {Galz, Eevee, Glooble, chairs}.
Not quite sure what you mean by "excited" in this context, but I did say to Joseph at #353 that I thought Dylan's criticism was spot on.
I think I'm about 88% sure there's at least one scum in that set of four.. but that's because with two players flipped, an IC, and knowing my own alignment, there are essentially 3 scum in 9 unknown players. Picking any four out of them has only about a 12% chance of not having at least one scum in the group, without taking any reads or behaviour into account.
Could be misremembering old games, but random math Space is town!Space iirc.
vote: Eevee. He's been voting opportunistically, not scumhunting.
I noticed that too. I don't know that it's the best case today though.
Someone please explain faust's case on me I legit don't get it.
Space already explained it.
I mean, the way I understand it in case Space's explanation didn't is that after Joseph claimed VT, scum would prefer to push through a different exile. The IC stated a preference for glooble over Joseph, and so it would have been easy for scum to follow there instead. Nobody followed though, which means one of the following is likely true: A) glooble is town and 1-2 scum were already on wagon or B) glooble is scum so scum didn't move there (note: scum could have also been bussing scum!glooble already, in which case A and B are not mutually exclusive, although that's probably not the most likely case).
As far as wagon analysis based arguments go, that one seems actually fairly strong to me, so
Vote: gloobleLooking at current wagon comps, I do feel better about {chairs, faust, IC} versus {ADK, glooble, Eevee} or {EFHW, WCD}.
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Topic: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Game Over! Skum Wins! (Read 145255 times)