The fact that you don't agree that this is at least a reason to be suspicious of MiX is weird. The fact that you didn't check if it was actually reasonable with any combo of 5 before suggesting that is weird.
I get that I could be following a red herring. But to be so dismissive of this - including "this is bad" seems itself suspicious.
I'm actually very much looking forward to Jim's read of MiX, to see if he (or frankly anyone) has opinions on this.
I mean, you may be right, after all MiX himself seemed to suggest that there was something more going on. To me it just looked like the thing where people scumread someone because they accidentally wrote "scum" when they meant "town". Also MiX has done a lot more this game. I always find that zeroing in on perceived "scumslips" and not judging the whole performance of a player leads to bad results.
Sure, but this wasn't accidental. He repeated several times about spending 15 for reporter. Again, I may completely be going down the wrong path here, but this wasn't a type: MiX made an assumption that it costs 15 in his words "for some reason".
He admitted as much about making an assumption, and I don't think anyone has suggested it was a typo.
Faust did, in the msg I was responding to:
To me it just looked like the thing where people scumread someone because they accidentally wrote "scum" when they meant "town".
He got a couple votes early particularly because of how many assumptions he made in that conversation. You're saying he would be more likely to project out from the scums' powers all costing 15. MiX is saying it's more likely that scum would have different cost abilities and so that's an unlikely assumption for scum to make. Honestly, until we have more info, I don't think there's any point going down this path because there is a plausible narrative both ways.
I didn't realize I was still on MiX. Unvote.
Well, I'm also saying (and this is just as important) that there should be some reason he would project that and I'm trying to hunt that down. "For some reason" is not good enough.
I mean yes it's true that if scum had different cost order special powers, scum!Mix would not make that assumption, but we don't need to consider that case, since MiX did make that assumption. That's not a logical counter argument.
1) I don't think that's what faust is saying there. His point is that it looked like the times where someone makes an easily explainable, almost trivial mistake and other people latch onto it as a "scumslip" and get tunnel vision on that one thing in spite of the body of work the suspect has done through the rest of the game.
2) Yeah, we do. Say there are two theories to explain a certain event. Theory A requires something, let's call it
P, to be true.
P only has a slim chance of being true. It is not irrelevant to consider how likely the case that
not P is true, as if it is determined that
not P is true, then Theory A cannot be true. Theory A is that MiX saw the scumteam's abilities and projected out that all special role powers cost 15. This would only be true if,
P, the whole scum team has nothing but 15 cost special powers. The likelihood that Theory A is true is affected by how likely you think
P is. I have seen 1 special ability, and it does not cost 15. I guess I can trust that Mix is telling the truth that at least his is 15. So for the abilities I "know," it's 50/50 on if a given person's ability costs 15. Obviously there is a huge amount of uncertainty there, but from my perspective, choosing 3 or more people is going to be fairly likely to pick at least 1 person with a not 15 cost ability. Thus, I don't think theory A is the best explanation for the assumption.
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Topic: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Game Over!) (Read 271354 times)