As mentioned in my post about scola, I re-read cayvie. Immediately I noticed her post count and remembered that she's probably the Towniest person in the game, so the whole thing may just be an exercise in futility.
However I do find some of her reasons for voting a little suspcious.
You will when we're done, because ash has promised to explain.
And when we're done revealing everybody's draft number, I'll explain how that leads to actual scumhunting instead of just "now ash knows which items aren't used" or some other bizarrely specific, clairvoyance-dependent, unhelpful information
yeah you know what?
vote: Ashersky
the bandages were available in round 2. i think he's searching for the doctor.
Even if ash is scum, this is not what he was doing. Sure, a Doctor can save day come late game, but it is really not a role that scum is particularly worried about, especially in a game this big
vote: scolapasta
[...debate about item names...]
And now back to the debate!
When you've quoted faust, you've left out a key part of what he said:"As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye"
I don't think faust was claiming that all 13 objects he guessed where correct (even if her were scum, how would he be able to confirm 13?), just that, as Jimmmmm captures above, it is possible to have a guess based on item name. i.e. that knowing someone's item can give you some idea of their role.
And my "not buying it" is that it feels like you are deliberately taking faust out of that context, in order to create chaos and suspicion.
to me, in the context of his other posts, this post reads as full of relief that he gets to weigh in on the correct (sorry Ash) side of an argument with gusto. it's stressful pretending to scumhunt! what a blessing to see a townie being logically wrong and to be able to argue against him!
This argument doesn't really make any sense to me. There has been plenty of debate this game; why was this post picked out as scummy? "In the context of his other posts" is a vague but clever-sounding justification. His recent posts from here were some discussion about claiming, and some reads on WCD, shraeye, ash and others. I suppose you could make the argument that it's convenient to find find someone scummy (he had just voted for ash) and also disagree with them about something, but really people will argue ad infinitum simply because they believe someone is wrong.
vote: e
Going for bow and arrow (almost certainly a vig) would be a great move as scum.
For anyone who knows anything about the flavor at all, the bow and arrow were obviously one of the most valuable items, and once we found out our role went with our item, we knew it would be Katniss.
I think it would be a too choice, or at least a consideration, for everyone in the top half of the draft.
yeah me too! that's why e's explanation of "i took it to keep it out of the hands of scum" rings false to me. you don't bid on the bow and arrow because you're taking one for the team; you do it because it's probably awesome and you wanna be katniss! pew pew!
"You don't bid on the bow and arrow because you're taking one for the team". Uh, yes you do. Sure this is a big RMM and people want to have fun and have cool roles, but it's also a team game. I think a lot of people here, once a game has started, will choose to do the pro-team move over the fun move. I'm not sure Vig is all that fun of a role anyway; even if you have a full Vig, a lot of players will choose to not shoot more often than shoot.
For the record (I probably should have mentioned this earlier), before taking the Bow and Arrow, e did mention he would probably take it, both for denying scum and because it was cool.
...huh, I was going to ask WCD why Lekkit over raptor--my gut said that Lekkit was townier, between the two--and then I reread them.
I think if I was going to choose between those two, I would also vote Lekkit. Sure, raptor's said some scummy-sounding things (in particular that line of not wanting to look scummy) but at least raptor's shared opinions on things other than the setup.
It took until his most recent post for Lekkit to share an opinion about another player in this thread. I'm not exaggerating.
vote: Lekkit
This post seems fine, although...
A mistake. She did not think Lekkit and raptor were scummy at the time, she thought they were lurking. Replace the relevant sentence of mine above with
"Lekkit and raptor are lurking, I'll vote Lekkit"
Later on she seems to accuse WCD of doing basically the same as she did (and in fact was basically agreeing with WCD when she did so).
Now obviously there's more to her case on WCD than this: she points out that she started the raptor wagon while WCD was the L-1 position. But basically her case on WCD is that she preferred Lekkit over mail-mi and MiX over raptor, as well as some "weird vibes". Never mind that we don't know the alignments of Lekkit or MiX and that there's a strong possibility that mail-mi and raptor don't have any more teammates.
If we are playing multi-ball, basing cases around interactions with the other scum seems likely to be something scum would go for.
MailMi and Mix are both L-4
Ash, Glooble, Cayvie, Jim, EFHW, And Scola, I believe that you guys should probably start consolidating votes now.
sounds like an invitation to me!
vote: raptor
for srs im getting such bad vibes off this guy; he lurks his way thru the majority of day 1 and then comes around at the end to try to take a leadership role in the lynch.
I don't know about this one. Sure, protocol might indicate that the more active players are the ones who get to tell people what to do, but is breaking this particularly scummy? The last thing she said about them specifically was that he said some scummy things (referencing what I assume was that joke about jumping off a bridge), but at least he has contributed. Not exactly bad vibes.
(Obviously raptor was in fact scum, but that's not necessarily relevant.)
[...district partners analysis...]
vote: mail-mi
so uh this theory is not lookin' too bad right now.
vote: shraeye
i wanna know why you could promise that #1 in the draft order (apparently WCD) wouldn't be the nightkill target.
Granted this was early in the Day so there wasn't that much behind the vote, but "this theory was correct in one case so it must be correct in another case" seems hardly a case in itself (and yes this is very different from the item guessing debate). What it does do is continue cayvie's narrative of her being a strong Townie who is catching all the Mafia.
got around to rereading scolapasta, and basically everything i said about Didds applies to pasta too. Right down to the "mail-mi or MiX? I vote MiX"
I should be around for some part of tonight. Leaning to Mix over Mail-mi (between those two).
most damning may be this post
Right now:
Preferred lynches: raptor, wcd, scolapasta, e, lalight, mail-mi
Neutral-ish: lekkit, jimmm, glooble, Ash, adk
Would rather not lynch: mix, faust, shraeye, EFHW
Will not lynch: cayvie
PPE, of course, the fact that 2 people I distrust are voting for lalight makes me less suspicious of him
So... my list is almost opposite of yours!
Preferred lynches: faust, shraeye,, ash, lalight, mail-mi, mix
Neutral-ish: lekkit, glooble, e, adk, raptor
Would rather not lynch:, wcd, EFHW, cayvie, jimmm
Will not lynch: scolapasta
I don't specifically remember what made me put lalight, mail-mi, mix in the first group, so they might be more neutral.
Also interesting to note that my Would rather not lynch is all people I've played codenames with. Hmm....
where he includes mail-mi in the preferred lynches. and yet i believe he votes for and/or makes an argument against every other preferred lynch at some time in day 1, but never a specific one about mail-mi.
290: vote & reasons for shraeye
316: reasons for ash & mentions faust & LL
349: reasons for shraeye & faust
601: vote & reasons for Ashersky
986: vote MiX
yeahhhhhh, he includes mail-mi in his "preferred lynches" but never mentions him again except to say he's voting for someone else instead. thaaat's not a good sign. vote: scolapasta
Again, basing her entire case around interactions with Mafia. I don't think scola's post is damning at all. If they were scum together, then putting mail-mi in his preferred lynch tier was a very deliberate choice. Is the argument that he then forgot that he was going to semi-bus his partner?
Also, his mentioning of faust and LaLight is not terribly substantial. In #316 he simply says "maybe faust or LaLight" but never follows up on it, and in #349 he references shraeye and faust as being his "main accusers" in the context of round claiming.
In summary, I find many of cayvie's cases and reasons to vote for people just don't hold water. Since the flip of two Mafia members, her scumhunting seems to be purely based around interactions with Mafia, which is a great way to mislead and come up with reads if she's a member of a different scum faction. And given that our claimed Vig has said he didn't kill mail-mi, it seems very likely that there is another faction.
Aside from what I've mentioned here, I think cayvie has played an excellent game (as Town or scum) and most people find her Towny, so I'm not expecting to get much agreement here. However in putting this together I've convinced myself that I may very well be onto something.
Vote: cayvie. If, as I expect, this doesn't go anywhere, I'll make sure to spend more time on more likely lynch candidates before deadline.
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Topic: RMM54: Hunger Games Mafia - Game Over! (Read 211916 times)