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[Debatepro]

Corrected (ari): I believe these are the votes since the last vote count.
Vote Count 3.22 (count then alphabetical)
arishipshape (2): Uncleeurope, Joseph (#1710), faust
faust (2): Debatepro, Shraeye (#1789)
EFHW (1): raerae, faust (#1835)
Joseph2302 (1): EFHW
silverspawn (1): faust (#1862)

Not Voting (2): ari, silverspawn
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends February 21, 2019, 04:00:00 pm

[faust]

Hold on.  For all the speculating, why has a somewhat obvious solution been very overlooked?  I'm not if it's right to blame people for the overlooking, but if faust is willing to entertain daychat then I'm surprised he didn't consider this...

Do you mean something along the lines of "EFHW is in fact a Motion Detector, but scum-aligned"? I did not think that worth separating from the general "EFHW is lying scum" scenarios because then her role does not matter all that much.

If it's something else, then I would like to know.

[arishipshape]

Neapolitan enabler.

[EFHW]

I don't feel like the possibility of daychat changes very much. What implications are people seeing?

[Debatepro]

Is this correct? Player, Claim, Current Vote, and their top scum reads? Although I know some of the top scum reads have likely changed since #1760.

Plyr	Claim	Voting 3.22	One	Two	Three (#1752)
Debatepro	VT	faust	Ari	faust	EFHW
Ari	Neap.Enblr	Null	faust	UncleEurope	...
faust	VT	Silver	Ari	silver	Debatepro
Silver	VT	Null	Ari	faust	Joseph
UncleEurope	VT	Ari	Ari	Debatepro	Joseph
Joseph	VT	Ari	Ari	Raerae	Debatepro
raerae	VT	EFHW	EFHW	UncleEurope	faust
EFHW	Motion.Dtctr	Joseph	Ari	Joseph	silver
Shraeye	Mason2	faust	Ari	Joseph	silver (#1760)

[raerae]

I'm thinking about the argument that 2 investigative roles is too strong for town.  Note that both of them are potentially misleading in a closed setup, "non-VT" and " there was movement" wouldn't make me super convinced of what I had caught.

I'm not convinced that it is too strong for town

It is not so much the fact that there arre no investigative PRs, but rather... scum has little way to counteract what we have. Masons is nothing that scum could work against with any of their PRs. Neapolitan can only be messed with by a Roleblocker, which we do not seem to have (unless EFHW is scum). Motion Detector... well I suppose scum could have a Ninja.

Also yes "non-VT" does not make you sure of what you caught, but "VT" does. The major strength is creating ICs. Which is pretty good if there already is are two IC-like roles.

I am thinking about that argument. It is meh. If scum has a Ninja, then a Motion Detector would not do much of anything really. Possibly would even functionally be negative utility as scum would appear with favourable results. So... I guess it could work out balance-wise?

I am still very concerned about the way EFHW claimed out of the blue. But I do not think it is likely that we lynch there today, and if we do manage to hit some other scum, then maybe their flip might help us figuring out EFHW. (As in, a Ninja flip would obviously go a long way towards clearing her.)

Either way I don't think we should give her result on Eddie any weight. Either she is scum and it is whatever, or she is town and scum has a Ninja or something and the result is useless (since we have no evidence for other scum targeting roles).

Wild speculation: Scum has daychat. I think scum needs some sort of additional boost in this setup, and daychat makes sense.

When did you become concerned with how she claimed? I thought you originally said it was very townie?

[raerae]

Is this correct? Player, Claim, Current Vote, and their top scum reads? Although I know some of the top scum reads have likely changed since #1760.

Plyr	Claim	Voting 3.22	One	Two	Three (#1752)
Debatepro	VT	faust	Ari	faust	EFHW
Ari	Neap.Enblr	Null	faust	UncleEurope	...
faust	VT	Silver	Ari	silver	Debatepro
Silver	VT	Null	Ari	faust	Joseph
UncleEurope	VT	Ari	Ari	Debatepro	Joseph
Joseph	VT	Ari	Ari	Raerae	Debatepro
raerae	VT	EFHW	EFHW	UncleEurope	faust
EFHW	Motion.Dtctr	Joseph	Ari	Joseph	silver
Shraeye	Mason2	faust	Ari	Joseph	silver (#1760)

This is just straight sexy. I love a well organized table.

[faust]

I'm thinking about the argument that 2 investigative roles is too strong for town.  Note that both of them are potentially misleading in a closed setup, "non-VT" and " there was movement" wouldn't make me super convinced of what I had caught.

I'm not convinced that it is too strong for town

It is not so much the fact that there arre no investigative PRs, but rather... scum has little way to counteract what we have. Masons is nothing that scum could work against with any of their PRs. Neapolitan can only be messed with by a Roleblocker, which we do not seem to have (unless EFHW is scum). Motion Detector... well I suppose scum could have a Ninja.

Also yes "non-VT" does not make you sure of what you caught, but "VT" does. The major strength is creating ICs. Which is pretty good if there already is are two IC-like roles.

I am thinking about that argument. It is meh. If scum has a Ninja, then a Motion Detector would not do much of anything really. Possibly would even functionally be negative utility as scum would appear with favourable results. So... I guess it could work out balance-wise?

I am still very concerned about the way EFHW claimed out of the blue. But I do not think it is likely that we lynch there today, and if we do manage to hit some other scum, then maybe their flip might help us figuring out EFHW. (As in, a Ninja flip would obviously go a long way towards clearing her.)

Either way I don't think we should give her result on Eddie any weight. Either she is scum and it is whatever, or she is town and scum has a Ninja or something and the result is useless (since we have no evidence for other scum targeting roles).

Wild speculation: Scum has daychat. I think scum needs some sort of additional boost in this setup, and daychat makes sense.

When did you become concerned with how she claimed? I thought you originally said it was very townie?

I became concerned when I reread and noticed that she did not say anything about Eddie at all before she claimed (at which point you and shraeye were already voting for Eddie).

[Debatepro]

I love a well organized table.

@all - It takes to much mental energy organize tables manually. I just found SCEditor which is a WYSIWYG BBCode editor. When you are done with your post, just click the <> button at the end to get the BBCode. SMF tables doesn't support borders. You also can create your table in excel, paste it in this table converter to generate the bbcode.

[faust]

I guess there is a chance of having more than 3 scum. In that scenario, ari's role seems again more fitting for scum. I just... don't quite feel that. And I think in that case we would have been granted some form of protection.

I guess it doesn't make too much of a difference for what we should do today, except possibly worry about quickhammers. But I expect if it's 4 scum, then one will be Traitor, so coordination will be hard.

[EFHW]

I think it is best to talk about this now.

EFHW never mentions Eddie (remember her supposed N1 target who she has a favorable result on) at all during D2 until the point where shraeye and raerae are both voting for him. This strikes me as very, very strange.

Why now?

My plan was to say something by the end of day if it hadn't come up naturally.

[EFHW]

Anyway vote: silver

I thought you wanted to lynch ari?

I changed my mind.

Why and does this change who you think the scum team is?

Because I think it is plausible that ari is town. And yes. Well to be honest I don't quite know what to think anymore.

Exactly my sentiments. vote: silver. POE.

[silverspawn]

Anyway vote: silver

I thought you wanted to lynch ari?

I changed my mind.

Why and does this change who you think the scum team is?

Because I think it is plausible that ari is town. And yes. Well to be honest I don't quite know what to think anymore.

Exactly my sentiments. vote: silver. POE.

In what universe am I more likely to be scum than faust? Don't you think there's way more evidence against faust?

I mean cmon, you literally have an innocent result on me. That should multiply your odds of me being scum by 2/3 (more if there's a rolecop). Are you saying I was previously more than 1.5 times as likely scum as faust? What?

Plus, what's the point of investigating me if you're just going to vote for me despite an innocent result? In that case, you would have done better investigating someone else. Like ariship.

[silverspawn]

As a matter of fact, the reason why you didn't see any motion on me was because VTs don't tend to have a lot going on at night.

[Joseph2302]

I guess there is a chance of having more than 3 scum. In that scenario, ari's role seems again more fitting for scum. I just... don't quite feel that. And I think in that case we would have been granted some form of protection.

I guess it doesn't make too much of a difference for what we should do today, except possibly worry about quickhammers. But I expect if it's 4 scum, then one will be Traitor, so coordination will be hard.

13 people and 2 factions is usually 10/3 though. Not seen a case where that isn't true
And third faction SK seems unlikely, as there's only been 1 kill per night. Ditto for multiball
So most likely is 10/3

[Uncleeurope]

As a matter of fact, the reason why you didn't see any motion on me was because VTs don't tend to have a lot going on at night.

This does seem scummy... Vote: Silver

That at least was enough for silver to overtake someone (yet to be determined) in my trio.

L-2

I think anyway, that was essentially me attempting to formulate a vote count in my head based on Debatepro’s input.

[jotheonah]

Vote Count 3.3


silverspawn (3): faust, EFHW, Uncleeurope (L-2)
faust (2): Debatepro, shraeye
arishipshape (1): Joseph2302
EFHW (1): raerae

Not Voting (2): silverspawn, arishipshape

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 3 ends February 21, 2019, 04:00:00 pm.

Sorry about the delay in vote counts! Apparenlty Snow and I ended up busy at the same time.

[Debatepro]

Let's play a game:

Step 1: Take every player remaining in the game and rank their ability to detect a breadcrumbs based on your previous experience playing with them, reputation, experience, etc. Who would be first, second, or third? Who would be best at manipulating and leveraging that information to push a mislynch? What would that look like?

Step 2: Review timeline
Debatepro:
#1215 Debatepro Votes: Mail-mi because mail-mi thinks debatepro is a "great person" which debatepro sees as buddying.

Mail-mi:
#1216 and #1238 MM posts that he has a town!read on raerae.

Faust:
#1244 Questions Mail-Mi while pushing DS.
#1246 Questions mail-mi's list that has raerae & SS as slight town.
#1252 In response to MM, codes 50 of his messages in under 20 minutes. <- Impressive
#1256 Questions MM for "i'll be honest".
#1258 Votes: Mail-mi

Step 3: Don't forget about that list in Step 1. Who was more likely to pick up on mail-mi's breadcrumb, push mislynch, and cover their tracks?

[faust]

Let's play a game:

Step 1: Take every player remaining in the game and rank their ability to detect a breadcrumbs based on your previous experience playing with them, reputation, experience, etc. Who would be first, second, or third? Who would be best at manipulating and leveraging that information to push a mislynch? What would that look like?

Step 2: Review timeline
Debatepro:
#1215 Debatepro Votes: Mail-mi because mail-mi thinks debatepro is a "great person" which debatepro sees as buddying.

Mail-mi:
#1216 and #1238 MM posts that he has a town!read on raerae.

Faust:
#1244 Questions Mail-Mi while pushing DS.
#1246 Questions mail-mi's list that has raerae & SS as slight town.
#1252 In response to MM, codes 50 of his messages in under 20 minutes. <- Impressive
#1256 Questions MM for "i'll be honest".
#1258 Votes: Mail-mi

Step 3: Don't forget about that list in Step 1. Who was more likely to pick up on mail-mi's breadcrumb, push mislynch, and cover their tracks?

You can just come out and say you think i'm scum. But as I said before, this makes no sense. If I was indeed scum who noticed mail-mi's breadcrumbs,  it serves no purpose to push his lynch. He would just claim and not get lynched. That in turn would make him more likely to be protected/watched/whatever at night. If I'm pciking up a breadcrumb as scum, then the sensible thing is to keep my mouth shut and NK that player.

[EFHW]

Anyway vote: silver

I thought you wanted to lynch ari?

I changed my mind.

Why and does this change who you think the scum team is?

Because I think it is plausible that ari is town. And yes. Well to be honest I don't quite know what to think anymore.

Exactly my sentiments. vote: silver. POE.

In what universe am I more likely to be scum than faust? Don't you think there's way more evidence against faust?

I mean cmon, you literally have an innocent result on me. That should multiply your odds of me being scum by 2/3 (more if there's a rolecop). Are you saying I was previously more than 1.5 times as likely scum as faust? What?

Plus, what's the point of investigating me if you're just going to vote for me despite an innocent result? In that case, you would have done better investigating someone else. Like ariship.

faust has been more engaged in the game, more active. I don't think there is evidence against either of you. I think you are capable of playing a really clean game and still being scum. The no motion result just means you didn't do the kill. I was hoping to discover you doing the kill. If I thought the result made you innocent, I would have spoken up. Since we have learned more about the roles in the game, it seems more and more plausible scum could have no active role other than the nk. My initial impression from the OP was that scum would have two active roles, but we haven't seen any evidence of those.
PPE: 2

[Debatepro]

You can just come out and say you think i'm scum. But as I said before, this makes no sense. If I was indeed scum who noticed mail-mi's breadcrumbs,  it serves no purpose to push his lynch.

I said that with my vote, the game is to get people to think about more than just you, and you are my example. I also think that why would scum do this is a great cover story.

When did you pick up on MM breadcrumb?

@EFHW - When did you?

[EFHW]

You can just come out and say you think i'm scum. But as I said before, this makes no sense. If I was indeed scum who noticed mail-mi's breadcrumbs,  it serves no purpose to push his lynch.

I said that with my vote, the game is to get people to think about more than just you, and you are my example. I also think that why would scum do this is a great cover story.

When did you pick up on MM breadcrumb?

@EFHW - When did you?

The pr hinting, right away. The raerae town part, not until after he was nk'd.

[shraeye]

I guess there is a chance of having more than 3 scum. In that scenario, ari's role seems again more fitting for scum. I just... don't quite feel that. And I think in that case we would have been granted some form of protection.

I guess it doesn't make too much of a difference for what we should do today, except possibly worry about quickhammers. But I expect if it's 4 scum, then one will be Traitor, so coordination will be hard.

Yup; I was thinking 4 scum.  I'm not sure if 4/9 would be overwhelmingly favorable to scum, but it could certainly be balanced by giving town plenty of IC-power.

[silverspawn]

faust has been more engaged in the game, more active.

University modules projects exams busy

The no motion result just means you didn't do the kill. I was hoping to discover you doing the kill. If I thought the result made you innocent, I would have spoken up.

That doesn't really address my point. My point was that it reduces the probability. Whatever probability you'd put on me being scum not counting the result must be updated downward given the result. (Not multiplying it with 2/3 as I said before, I just checked and it changes a bit less than that, but still). So you wouldn't just have to believe that I'm the scummiest person (which seems silly anyway? Ariship?!) but that I'm significantly scummier than the next scummiest. If me being scum was 0.5 before and you think there's a 1/3 chance I'd do the NK as scum, then it should be exactly 0.4 now.

And my other point was that the result on me is useless if you're voting me with an innocent result. This is so because you'd obviously vote me with a guilty result, hence you'd vote for me either way, hence your result doesn't change your vote. If your investigative results don't change your votes, they're useless except to convince others.

[silverspawn]

As a matter of fact, the reason why you didn't see any motion on me was because VTs don't tend to have a lot going on at night.

This does seem scummy... Vote: Silver

In what universe could that post possibly be scummy?